Cheltenham Festival

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16 Mar 13 13:55
Date Joined: 14 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 1,396 | Blogger: SoYouThink's blog
Very early obviously to be starting this kind of talk but there'll be some interesting novice chasers around next season:

Nearly sure I read comments this week suggesting that both Rock on Ruby and Oscar Whiskey could embark on novice chase campaigns.

Champagne Fever and Rolling Star will no doubt go that route.

Jezki, Pont Alexandre, Un Atout, Rule The World, Melodic Rendezvous, Taquin De Seuil, Far West surely a handful of them will be seen over fences.

Must be something that connections of Zarkandar, Cinders and Ashes and Countrywide Flame will give thought to, too.

No doubt a few will stick to hurdles, a few will get injured, a few won't jump and a few will end up in the Jewson.
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Report cufcno1 February 15, 2014 6:29 PM GMT
behind what !
Report alleged22 February 15, 2014 6:38 PM GMT
just don't think his preparation has been the greatest, do you think he,s had an ideal prep? not worried at all?
Report cufcno1 February 15, 2014 6:53 PM GMT
no it hasnt,but stats wise apart from trifolium which i think is way below the standard cf will show at chelt,have any of the other fancied horses !
Report alleged22 February 15, 2014 6:55 PM GMT
how deep are you into the fever Carlisle?
Report Tory February 15, 2014 6:58 PM GMT
CF is hideous stats wise. FY would be tops followed by Trifolium and dodging bullets
Report cufcno1 February 15, 2014 6:58 PM GMT
i only need it for about a grand, got more going on to ror ironically due to a daft double after i seen it win at plumpton !
Report alleged22 February 15, 2014 7:11 PM GMT
quite deep then....
Report cufcno1 February 15, 2014 7:19 PM GMT
deep enough,its only cost me about £50,fy hasnt run for a while,dodging bullets going through that slog last week wont have done that any good,and trifolium was below top class as a hurdler,but i do think it looked like a chaser if ever i seen 1,just dont think it will be good enough,be honest tory i thought you had to win last time out,got it wrong !
Report cufcno1 February 15, 2014 7:22 PM GMT
briar hill is my biggest winner,especially if it lines up in supreme,which looks highly unlikely now,had few hundred on it to win any race at 9-2 !
Report alleged22 February 15, 2014 7:33 PM GMT
I don,t think theres a hores training in the uk that has had an ideal prep for Cheltenham with the weather we have been having, what worries me about fever is he has been scheduled to run twice in the last 2 weeks and missed both engagements, that must be a worry to a backer, my arkle money should felix not participate will be coming back as a free bet and unless I hear some positivity regarding fever in the coming weeks then I will just have to sidestep him and find alternative value.
Report cufcno1 February 15, 2014 7:35 PM GMT
fair enough,i suppose i and many other backers are hoping he is a much better horse at cheltenham !
Report alleged22 February 15, 2014 7:36 PM GMT
my biggest winner is ballycasey and im worried that he hasn't had an ideal prep I would have liked another run for him, not far behind bally is faugheen, his prep has been awful he has run over 3 diferent distances, im in quite deep on both of them
Report Ballydoyle February 15, 2014 7:39 PM GMT
The Tullow Tank, Silviniaco Conti to name but two have had a beautiful prep
Report Ballydoyle February 15, 2014 7:42 PM GMT
Tullow Tank will be too streetwise for Faugheen and if I was a Champagne Fever fan comin in to this with a 3rd I wouldn't be too confident to be honest but then looking at the opposition it's a godawful Arkle
Report alleged22 February 15, 2014 7:44 PM GMT
I mean with the ground being heavy everywhere for the last 3 months bally, its not ideal is it...
Report cufcno1 February 15, 2014 7:45 PM GMT
im  about 20th in that wiliam hill 10 to follow,and have cf,ballcasey,faugheen,ss,briar hill and red sherlock,ballydoyle if i had put conti in instead of al ferof i would have been leading,ttt will be placed in either race and conti will place at least !
Report Ballydoyle February 15, 2014 7:53 PM GMT
It's not alleged no but I do feel certain trainers have ballsed up with their prep of certain horses. Henderson flapping about over Tent..could easily have ran him in Irish Champ or today but instead runs in some daft jumper bumper. There's enough races out there if certain trainers looked.for champagne fever to only have had 2 runs over fences at this stage is laughable.
Report cufcno1 February 15, 2014 8:00 PM GMT
i agree with you,there the best 2 trainers aswell lol !
Report Ballydoyle February 15, 2014 8:10 PM GMT
Paul Nicholls is a better trainer than Mullins.Hendo n Nicholls best two for me but each to their own. Mullins faffs about a hell of a lot. I think C Fever and F Yonger been far too overhyped. Faugheen also who has only won a grade 3. It's obvious that stable thought F Yonger was the Arkle one and now that he fluffed his lines all of a sudden it must be C Fever that wins the Arkle. Mullins sent F Yonger in on heavy when horse has had previous on it. Why? You have to wonder...he would be the most exciting prospect in it but at 4/1 you can find far far better value in other races
Report Howdi February 15, 2014 9:16 PM GMT
corruptus in extremus  • February 15, 2014 10:49 AM GMT 

All you champagne fever fans are clutching at straw.Just like our felix yonger bets.The second coming isnt happening lads.Hope felix gets to run against him.Just another talking horse c f will become,regardless  YOU SERIOUS???
Report Howdi February 15, 2014 9:17 PM GMT
wellchief  • February 15, 2014 11:17 AM GMT 

Whether you think Champagne Fever is a good thing or not, it would take something extraordinary for him not to place imo.  4/1 ew currently on offer is a good ew bet to nothing, and I'd be very surprised if he didn't finish in the top 3, so money back if placed, and a 4/1 winner if he dots up.

From previous lessons, its best not to do all your cash on the Supreme and Arkle as all the joy of the festival can go away pretty quickly!

Report Ballydoyle February 15, 2014 9:18 PM GMT bad mistake and it's game over.
Report Howdi February 15, 2014 9:22 PM GMT
the irish form really is mixed al beaten each other....dare I say it aint going to take much winning this???
Report Howdi February 15, 2014 9:24 PM GMT
my 2 pence for what its worth....champagne fever is no value. loads to prove over fences. 2 runs poor prep. no run this year awful stat but I think Cheltenham is his track, he seems to love that hill and bounds up it, if he jumps well he wins.
Report Howdi February 15, 2014 9:25 PM GMT
anybody watching trifolium last time out would find it hard to believe he got thrashed by the 2nd in the same season.
Report buddeliea February 16, 2014 6:51 AM GMT
Ground mate,makes a heck of a difference in this game.Plus Trifolium went off a lot quicker when he got beat,and was ridden perfectly when he won lto.
Report Andymca February 16, 2014 7:20 AM GMT
It would have been interesting if Mallowney had stayed on his feet  I guess we will see how good he is today
Report buddeliea February 16, 2014 7:29 AM GMT
Very true,he was gonna be 2nd at the very worse imo.
Report buddeliea February 16, 2014 7:32 AM GMT
Think it puts Ned Buntline in a good light as well, as NB beat Mallowney.
I know NB seems to have 2 ways of running,but his best form aint too shabby imo, and were he to line up in the Arkle on a good day,hes interesting and available at big odds on here.
Worse bets for a couple of quid around.
Report Howdi February 16, 2014 9:00 AM GMT
Something about arkle I love, I think its the fact you can spend months thinking who may graduate.
Report Howdi February 16, 2014 9:00 AM GMT
You going all four days this year Buddeliea?
Report buddeliea February 16, 2014 9:17 AM GMT
Not going at all mate.
Aint been for ages but I do plan to change that at some point in the future.
Got into an annual routine now,watch it with me bruv at home. We enjoy it that way,sharing opinions etc and it seems to do us ok re money wise,not life changing amounts, but we do ok.
Report tony2914 February 16, 2014 9:36 AM GMT
Still pretty confident champ fever will prove to be a cut above the rest in the arkle.Granted his prep has been messy and given plenty of ammunition to the doubters, however they have always thought he would excel over fences and that was always the plan ie he was going to go chasing after his bumper season. A lot of the opposistion are bascically here because they couldn't cut the mustard over hurdles.I can honestly see him winning quite comfortably and if u look through the field imo hes the only one with the so called X factor. Its all about opinions !!!!
Report festivalfanatic February 16, 2014 9:43 AM GMT
I hope you are right tony! However, there is no stand out candidate on chase form this year so we may see a few more runners than normal, which certainly won't help given his inexperience over fences. I'm not bothered at all about his lack of a recent run. He is a lightly framed horse who won't take a lot of getting/keeping fit.
Report Howdi February 16, 2014 11:40 AM GMT
watch willie stick him in the Jewson just becauLaughse he can
Report wellchief February 16, 2014 12:01 PM GMT
Yeah,of course if he doesn't get round he won't place, but that's why they have prep runs etc, to give them experience.  Much better to hit one in a prep run than give him easy small runner races where his jumping is not tested.  They would have learnt a lot from his race when he unseated and I'd be confident he won't make this mistake again.

Haven't got any stats, but the best usually come out on top in the Arkle (or are at least in the mix).  Off the top of my head, I can't think of any really fancied ones in the last few years who have fell or unseated; apart from Tatanen, but you'd have to think Champagne Fever is a lot better than him.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but it's not something that tends to happen too often.
Report Howdi February 16, 2014 12:37 PM GMT
^^^ he's had no experience though chief - well not much!
Report Howdi February 16, 2014 12:37 PM GMT
fair point that in recent times that none have come a cropper though
Report Ramruma February 16, 2014 1:13 PM GMT
The bigger the field, the greater the certainty.

Something odd about Champagne Fever that might be just coincidence. His defeats, and he has been beaten five times at short prices, have all come in small-field races.

Perhaps he needs a strong, even-paced gallop to bring his stamina (he is bred for further) into play. If so, then (ironically) Mullins running Felix Yonger might actually help Champagne Fever. The last couple of Arkles have had small fields, perhaps as the Jewson-now-JLT has drawn runners away, but before that you'd expect larger turn-outs.
Report sintonian February 16, 2014 1:17 PM GMT
Think it's dangerous to assumer just because a horse ran on heavy ground last time out it automatically means he had a hard race. You can tell by how tired they finish usually and DB looked normal as you'd expect imo.
Report sintonian February 16, 2014 1:19 PM GMT
Dont Push It & Twist Magic both fell. I think Ashley Brook did too and Kauto Star ??
Report wellchief February 16, 2014 1:23 PM GMT
Shut up Sint, I thought I was on to a good point then Laugh
Report sintonian February 16, 2014 1:25 PM GMT

Maybe it is written in the stars Well Chief. Looking at that list of names it tends to be the good ones that fall!
Report Ramruma February 16, 2014 1:37 PM GMT
Boredom & Raceform Interactive combine to bring you this list of Arkle fallers in the last dozen or so runnings.

11/03/03 Adamant Approach 7/1 fell 2nd
11/03/03 Le Roi Miguel 11/1 lw: led tl fell 3rd
16/03/04 Tidour 33/1 hld up mid-div: hdwy 5th: trckd ldrs 8th:3l down and styng on in 4th whn fell 2 out
16/03/04 Puntal 50/1 in tch and reminders after 4th: bhd fr 7th: no ch whn bdly hmpd and uns rdr 2 out
16/03/04 Mister McGoldrick 50/1 led 2nd to 3rd: chsng ldrs whn hmpd 4 out: slt ld 3 out out: narrowly hdd next:wkng 12l 4th when blnd and uns last
16/03/04 Thisthatandtother 5/2F blnd 1st: fell next
16/03/04 Central House 11/1 rangy: lw: w ldrs 1st: styd front rnk: chal 7th: trcking ldr whn blnd and uns rdr 4 out
15/03/05 Kadount 20/1 hld up in rr: hdwy and travelling wl whn mstke and uns rdr 4 out
14/03/06 Accordion Etoile 7/1 in tch in midfield tl heavy fall 8th
13/03/07 Don't Push It 4/1 lw: chsd ldrs: hit 7th: styng on and gng wl disputing length 3rd whn fell 2 out
13/03/07 Twist Magic 12/1 in tch: hdwy to trck ldrs 8th: styng on wl and disp length 3rd whn fell 2 out
11/03/08 Clopf 11/1 uns rdr 1st
10/03/09 Tatenen 4/1F 2nd whn fell 3rd

Kauto Star never ran in the Arkle. He missed 2005 and fell in the Queen Mum the following year.
Report wellchief February 16, 2014 1:45 PM GMT
Cheers mate.  So nothing in the last three or so years.

You can't go into a race thinking one might fall, otherwise you'd never have a bet.  Of course, any one of them can, but that's racing; if you're only small stakes like me, I'm betting on the assumption that all of them will make it round.
Report Arklearkle February 16, 2014 2:11 PM GMT
No great ones in the fallers list - I suppose twist magic and dont push it who won the National were ok - interestingly both fell at same time. Would be surprised if CF does not emulate that lot.
Report sintonian February 17, 2014 12:14 PM GMT
OK? Twist Magic won 4 Grade1's including 2 Tingle Creeks. He was a bit of a nutter though.
Report Ballydoyle February 17, 2014 12:17 PM GMT
And was going well in that Arkle when he fell...I know cos I was on him at 33-1 Cry and will never forget Ruby punching the ground when he came off. Horse went and hosed up at Aintree the folloiwng month at 9-4 or something
Report Arklearkle February 17, 2014 12:37 PM GMT
Twist Magic when on song was good. Ruby beat the ground with his hand/whip when Dont Push It and himself fell in the Arkle so obviously reckoned he would have done it. He never liked Cheltenham perhaps remembering that fall. At Punchestown with AP up he totally refused to race and I can still clearly see the way he held his defiant head on that occasion. AP and four bull-dozers would not have got him to race that day.
Report sintonian February 19, 2014 12:02 PM GMT
Felix Yonger goes JLT according to twitter..
Report cufcno1 February 19, 2014 2:34 PM GMT
good !
Report Fallen Angel February 19, 2014 3:08 PM GMT
Arkle market still looks a bit loopsided. So many runners likely to be taken out.
Report Graeme83 February 19, 2014 10:43 PM GMT
I like Hinterland, but i haven't heard much about the horse since his last run. Are they satisfied he can do himself justice after such a lay off. Is it also the same for Nicholls Jewson horse ? has there been a set back we won't hear about unless he gets stuffed, and it come to light months after the race ? if i had to pick one, it would be him.
Report wellchief February 19, 2014 10:50 PM GMT
Nicholls always said he would not run Wonderful Charm on winter ground, so got as many runs in to him as he could whilst the ground was good. It was always the plan to go to Cheltenham fresh. He said the drier it is the better and will bring him back in the spring.
Report Graeme83 February 19, 2014 10:57 PM GMT
Yeah WC, they managed to get 4 runs into Won Charm, but only a couple into Hinterland. I know he takes his fences well, but i'd like to have seen him take another race. I'm not convinced Hinterland hasn't had a small set back.
Report DECALEC February 19, 2014 11:59 PM GMT
19 Feb 14 22:57
21 Sep 07
| Topic/replies: 8,346 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
Yeah WC, they managed to get 4 runs into Won Charm, but only a couple into Hinterland. I know he takes his fences well, but i'd like to have seen him take another race. I'm not convinced Hinterland hasn't had a small set back.WHY DONT YOU PHONE MYSTIC MEGCrazy
Report Graeme83 February 20, 2014 4:09 PM GMT
Thanks for your input decalec. I'm sure there are more sensible people than Brian Connolly to phone about the horses well being. My 2 points are down on him anyway. He looks like an arkle sort to me.
Report Quvega February 22, 2014 2:47 PM GMT
Can't believe that they're not going to let Balder take his chance in the Arkle. I get that his best form is on flat tracks, but think he deserves a shot. Prefer him to stables other runner.
Report buddeliea February 22, 2014 3:32 PM GMT
nor can I, what the owners thinking about??
Report stevedavis February 22, 2014 6:35 PM GMT
At the Exeter preview evening last night and after listening to Paul Nicholls talk about Hinterland I expect him to turn up in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, regardless of whether SS runs or not. He said the owner was keen for a crack at taking it on and that he prefers to keep his horses apart where possible as well. Everything he said strongly hinted that this is the most likely plan for him and I would be surprised if he runs it in the Arkle after hearing that.
Report Ekbalco February 22, 2014 8:00 PM GMT
It's one of the worst Arkle's I can remember - this year's Arkle winner is still unfathomably running over hurdles - Jezki - he'll probsbly run an excellent 4th/5th/6th in one of the hottest Champion Hurdles in recent memory and then have missed his Arkle chance by this time next year when it must be a stronger field - a really poor decision from JP and the Harringtons.

In Jezki's abscence the percentage play is Dodging Bullets EW - his Game Spirit run was excellent and with the Irish being much of a muchness imv  - he's the ew play for me @ 6/1.
Report Tucho February 22, 2014 8:11 PM GMT
nor can I, what the owners thinking about??

they're just looking after the horse

he's fallen or unseated on all 3 of his hurdle runs at cheltenham, i wouldn't be in a hurry to go there and jump fences
Report SoYouThink February 22, 2014 8:11 PM GMT
Last year's Arkle was a million times weaker than this one.

The Arkle's that Tidal Bay and Captain Chris were also no stronger than this year's renewal either!
Report Tucho February 22, 2014 8:12 PM GMT
*meant all 3 of his hurdle and chase runs
Report Ballydoyle February 22, 2014 11:03 PM GMT
Hinterland has little chance in the Champion Chase surely? Been off the track for yonks also
Report SoYouThink February 22, 2014 11:05 PM GMT
Champion Chase is about 2 horses. Sprinter Sacre at his best is miles better than anything. Sire De Grugy is better than everything bar maybe Sprinter Sacre at his best. Hinterland should run in the Arkle but would have place claims were Sprinter Sacre not to line up in the CC.
Report Ballydoyle February 22, 2014 11:07 PM GMT
Sire De Grugy far better away from Cheltenham. Was swept aside last time he ran there by Kid Cassidy who is a handicapper albeit getting 10 pounds.

Sprinter Sacre is by far the best horse in the race but he has ran a mile this season, has a heart problem, we are two weeks away from the race, and his trainer doesn't know what the **** to do
Report harry callaghan March 3, 2014 3:01 PM GMT
quite a big drift on dodging bullets today...not ideal
Report ACStafford March 3, 2014 3:02 PM GMT
That's probably related to PP's 8/1 special on him.
Report harry callaghan March 3, 2014 3:06 PM GMT
interesting...lets hope someone offers that on the day...will happily oblige
Report Arklearkle March 3, 2014 3:18 PM GMT
PFN has not had a chase winner since Kauto 2009
Report harry callaghan March 3, 2014 3:23 PM GMT
what has that got to do with dodging bullets?
Report Arklearkle March 3, 2014 3:54 PM GMT
Harry nothing just couldnt resist saying it as I have seen quite a few saying the same thing about Ruby.
Report harry callaghan March 3, 2014 4:09 PM GMT
ah the trends, what would some do without them...there is no hope for ruby and nicholls clearly
Report Tucho March 3, 2014 4:11 PM GMT
DB is probably fine

never underestimate the number of arbers out there happy to make a risk free 50 pence on a special price
Report northanlite March 3, 2014 5:47 PM GMT
i would not go as far to say DB is being written off but not many of the previews have had many positive words for him
that surprises me a bit as to my eye he looks the best jumper we've seen so far & has a good course form
Report harry callaghan March 3, 2014 5:51 PM GMT
certainly a lack of confidence northanlite...hopefully that will lead us to a better price come the day
Report marychain1 March 3, 2014 6:19 PM GMT
I've definitely come down on the side of Dodging Bullets and took the 8/1 with PP today. I don't like the look of many of the market principles although Trifolium has to be a massive danger. The fact that Nicholls is willing to send Hinterland to the QM speaks volumes about his confidence in Dodging Bullets. The form behind Module on ground it won't have appreciated is the best on offer and this is the one that combines the pace and jumping ability to win this.

Its not a certainty by any means but happy to take the 8/1 win only.
Report inchcailoch March 3, 2014 8:51 PM GMT
Does getting beaten by Module mean he has the best form on offer, Id be surprised if Module could place in an arkle for arguments sake.
Report alleged22 March 3, 2014 9:18 PM GMT
not one mention of CF schooling, I thought he looked extra slick and backers must be confident.....
Report tony2914 March 3, 2014 9:30 PM GMT
nice one alleged,thought I was the only one that noticed !!
Report buddeliea March 4, 2014 7:52 AM GMT
I noticed as well,jumped nicely.
I also noticed what he did in his last race!!
Report sintonian March 4, 2014 8:07 AM GMT
I thought he was slowed down before each fence. They'll be going quicker on Tuesday.
Report FOYLESWAR March 4, 2014 8:24 AM GMT
I put a similar post on the rsa chase thread , what was noticeable was the difference in the schools of chmp fever and ballycasey ,cham f left alone in the lead and jumped well with no company at the fences he shortened up when needed and was good at all the fences ,given a nice confidence booster and a good workout ,ballyc however was in the company of boston bob and 1 other and tracked bb and in the main jumped well until the fence where he fell ruby pushed him up so that there were 3 in a line approaching the fence and he just got it wrong ,they obviously wanted to get some expiereince of jumping fences with company upsides.
Report shockster March 4, 2014 9:11 AM GMT
I don't expect CF to get an easy unopposed lead in the Arkle.  Something will have to put pressure on his jumping.  Maybe Trifolium and remember ROR lead the Champion Hurdle last year.  CF jumping will have to be spot on.
Report festivalfanatic March 4, 2014 9:29 AM GMT
Shockser, whatever wins jumping is going to have to be spot on! This is going to be a gruelling race with nowhere to hide.
Report shockster March 4, 2014 9:43 AM GMT
Of course FF.  My point is that Defy Logic brought out the mistake and it is an Achilles for CF.  Others in this field have as yet not made the race ending blunder.
Report Ramruma March 4, 2014 11:30 AM GMT
whatever wins jumping is going to have to be spot on!

Is that actually true? Cheltenham's roll of honour features some of the hairiest leppers in the game, despite what the commentators will say about the stiff, imposing fences. Best Mate may never have touched a twig but Kauto Star was not averse to taking the odd fence with him, and Moscow Flyer regularly fell when he wasn't winning.
Report ACStafford March 4, 2014 4:59 PM GMT
To be fair, those two, while being prone to a bad error from time to time, were for the most part excellent jumpers. Luckily for Kauto, he had a habit of saving his errors for the final fence, when the race was already won. When he did make one at Cheltenham early on (Imperial Commander's Gold Cup) he was always fighting a losing battle until he fell.
Report DECALEC March 4, 2014 10:23 PM GMT
04 Mar 14 09:11
26 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 1,235 | Blogger: shockster's blog
I don't expect CF to get an easy unopposed lead in the Arkle.  Something will have to put pressure on his jumping.  Maybe Trifolium and remember ROR lead the Champion Hurdle last year.  CF jumping will have to be spot on.IF ROR HAD TO FACE A FENCE AT SPEED HE MET HIS HURDLES THE SH!T WOULD BE RUNNING DOWN HIS LEGAngry
Report shockster March 5, 2014 10:45 AM GMT
Decalec - ROR has had 2 Mickey Mouse races and won easily and jumped adequately. Champagne Fever has had 1 Mickey Mouse race and won easily and 1 big test which he failed in down to pressure on his jumping.   Work out the plan?  You may not rate ROR and he may not win, but as yet he hasn't been found out. CF may win but he is no value whatsoever.Wink
Report buddeliea March 5, 2014 12:20 PM GMT
never been value all season imo
Report sintonian March 5, 2014 1:50 PM GMT
Since the final 18 confirmations CF has gone from 4.0 to 4.7 ROR is now 5.6. Grandouet 13.0 from 16.0 Market movers!
Report brandyontherocks March 11, 2014 2:20 PM GMT
Cracking race.

Champagne ran brilliantly today, jumped every fence and battled well up the hill.

Great to see Martin working his magic again. The hobble and the hat a welcome sight in the winners enclosure.
Report unclepuncle March 11, 2014 2:22 PM GMT
Was the winner ever mentioned on thread?Cry
Report Ballydoyle March 11, 2014 2:29 PM GMT
Walsh is a **** idiot.Front runners don't win the Arkle
Report brandyontherocks March 11, 2014 2:32 PM GMT
How would you have liked Walsh to ride the front runner, Champagne Fever?
Report unclepuncle March 11, 2014 2:33 PM GMT
Talk about pocket talking.Cry
Report Brooksielad March 11, 2014 2:36 PM GMT
how the **** did that just win....
Report sintonian March 11, 2014 9:14 PM GMT
If the ground was softer CF would have won, imo.
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