Cheltenham Festival
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27 Feb 13
21:46
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06 Jan 05
Been looking at four of the likely runners in detail and the race as a whole. Conclusions were:
Carlito Brigante looks a fair favourite, course and distance winner and some form lines with other horses which have improved considerably over the season (Unioniste for instance). HIs jumping is generally sounds and will find for pressure which always think is important going up the hill and over the last two where jumping comes under the most pressure. Will almost certainly be better for better ground and if they can improve the horse towards his hurdles mark he will have a very good chance on a fair mark (will run off 137)
At a glance Course and distance winner over 2m 4f in the Martin Pipe in 2012 at the festival. 3rd in a very slowly run novice Chase event at Musselborough in February, 5m 40secs in good to soft going was receiving 5 pounds from a horse rated 132 and 8 pounds from a horse rated 139. Beaten 1 ¼ lengths total. Not sure this equates to a particularly well handicapped horse and that they all finish in a heap is a bit concerning. The time on what was reasonable ground doesn't lend to a great deal of analysis. Again looks short enough and seems to be entirely cheltenham hurdles form rather than its actually chase performances which support such low quotes.
Colour Squadron, I couldn't have this horse as 2nd favourite in a million years, hasn't shown anything much over fences, best form was beaten by Fago who has subsequently flopped and all his best form both hurdles and chase is at Newbury. They obviously like this horse a lot at home as he seems to go off very short each time after disappointing, has not shown to be a natural over fences and didn't find a great deal last time. I am not even sure the form suggests he will improve for good ground. If this goes off at 10/1 or shorter I will be laying for a place
The Druids Nephew - I like this horse alot. The Albert Barlett is working out quite well and he has form with some of the significant improvers of the year. Hadrians Approach and Rolling Aces have both improved a bundle and Grandiso also won both a handicap and another Novice Chase after being beaten by TDN. Really feel this horse could be up to 10 pounds well in running off 135, and generally best over good / good to soft ground. Not sure why this horse isn't shorter in the betting apart from the fact its from an unfashionable yard.
Be interested
Carlito Brigante looks a fair favourite, course and distance winner and some form lines with other horses which have improved considerably over the season (Unioniste for instance). HIs jumping is generally sounds and will find for pressure which always think is important going up the hill and over the last two where jumping comes under the most pressure. Will almost certainly be better for better ground and if they can improve the horse towards his hurdles mark he will have a very good chance on a fair mark (will run off 137)
At a glance Course and distance winner over 2m 4f in the Martin Pipe in 2012 at the festival. 3rd in a very slowly run novice Chase event at Musselborough in February, 5m 40secs in good to soft going was receiving 5 pounds from a horse rated 132 and 8 pounds from a horse rated 139. Beaten 1 ¼ lengths total. Not sure this equates to a particularly well handicapped horse and that they all finish in a heap is a bit concerning. The time on what was reasonable ground doesn't lend to a great deal of analysis. Again looks short enough and seems to be entirely cheltenham hurdles form rather than its actually chase performances which support such low quotes.
Colour Squadron, I couldn't have this horse as 2nd favourite in a million years, hasn't shown anything much over fences, best form was beaten by Fago who has subsequently flopped and all his best form both hurdles and chase is at Newbury. They obviously like this horse a lot at home as he seems to go off very short each time after disappointing, has not shown to be a natural over fences and didn't find a great deal last time. I am not even sure the form suggests he will improve for good ground. If this goes off at 10/1 or shorter I will be laying for a place
The Druids Nephew - I like this horse alot. The Albert Barlett is working out quite well and he has form with some of the significant improvers of the year. Hadrians Approach and Rolling Aces have both improved a bundle and Grandiso also won both a handicap and another Novice Chase after being beaten by TDN. Really feel this horse could be up to 10 pounds well in running off 135, and generally best over good / good to soft ground. Not sure why this horse isn't shorter in the betting apart from the fact its from an unfashionable yard.
Be interested
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Replies: 62
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be interested to know other thoughts
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glad to see im not the only one fancying the druids nephew. form lines with the likes of hadrians approach & grandioso reads very well but the stat that interests me is that all 3 runs have been on right handed tracks and the horse as a tendancy to jump to left and lost valuable yards at numerous fences. obviously at cheltenham id expect the left handed course to bring out further improvement to the form shown and off 135 must be there or thereabouts!
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colour squadron to make remarkable improvement due to the application of large chunks of money
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@judorick
 yes if i lay it I will have to dodge the bullet that it might actually be trying. I am just counting on him not actually being any good  |
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I have a rating for him, let me go see what his OR is... brb
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my rating for him is 148, runs off 139, certainly potential to improve especially if it hasn't been trying
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I have to say I haven't got him running to anything like that figure but I will have another look at the videos.
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Been looking at this race tonight and although unoriginal, I thought Carlito brigante and the Druids nephew jumped off the page
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that is a potential figure, not what he has already run to, i.e what he could run to
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Garynella NRNB, cold be a Pipe Plot, running this weekend, gets in one of the Festival races for sure if he wins that. But only take NRNB.
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I have a strong feeling that by 5.15 on Tues March 12th Colour Squadron will miraculously have learned how to stop running into the bottom of the fences and also realise what he has to do when the handbrake is released. Just a hunch
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I am a big fan of The Druids but the stable have been very quiet indeed and that worries me. Colour Squadron has not looked a natural jumper and Philip Hobbs is not in great form either. Arthurs Pass and Parsnip Pete are half brothers and both are progressing. Pete couldn't handle the heavy ground last time and is probably better over 2 miles but Arthurs Pass who runs today is very interesting. He probably needs a penalty to get into the Pulteney.
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The Cockney Mackem
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Arthurs Pass won as he liked again today beating 2 fair types so onwards to the Pultney.
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This race has been the target for The Druid for a long time. He ran a great race at Ascot and surprised us a little, even though he jumped to the left his fencing was still good. Next time at Kempton he disappointed, however he cut a leg at an early fence and tweaked his back, Tom got off and said forget the run, he was a different horse at Ascot. He won very readily at Wincanton and really pleased us, his jumping was less pronounced to the left and he galloped on strongly. The form of Ascot and Wincanton is very strong and has been boosted, I have always felt he has 10lbs in hand and is well handicapped.
Better ground and going left handed should also help. He ran a cracker as a baby last year in the AB and if we had been a bit more positive with him could have been much closer. All in all hopeful of a big run on the day. |
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Cheers - good luck with him! Will b shocked if he is nt fighting out the finish
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thanks for the update sabolah, best of luck!
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yes good luck
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Quite like Vulcanite owned by JP
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Thanks sabolah. Best of luck. Win or lose hope he runs a cracker.
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Thanks for all the good wishes. Really looking forward to it.
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Thanks sabolah1
Best of luck, think this has a good chance and well handicapped. One thing though, please please do not let Scudamore go blasting off in front at a million miles an hour. Tough enough to make all in a festival race at the best of times. See Kazlian last year if you want a reference. Mid-div would be a good tactic to adopt imo! Best of luck. |
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Ha, no chance of that Workforce, Andy always has the jocks well drilled at Cheltenham, he always says they go way too fast and the race isn't won at the start of the straight, and it's a long way up the hill. Nick will be back in the saddle and his cool head and experience from last years win on Hunt Ball makes him the perfect man.
I would say lay up off the pace, he maybe will be slightly outpaced at the top of the hill, then running on strongly up the hill, take it up jumping the last! Well if only it was that easy.... But you can dream! |
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Just working through this race now. Loads of runners, so time consuming. Verdict later.
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Garynella after winning today,perhaps?
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Excellent news sabolah1. On that basis I think I'll go in again!
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The Druids Nephew comes out clear top rated on my trends analysis.
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Please Talk
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Taking a big chance with the Andy. Can't train white mice these days. Oh that he had a fraction of the talent of his late dad Bob.
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Buckers Bridge for me. I'd imagine that Henry de Bromhead is both delighted and surprised that the handicapper gave a mark of just 140 (the ceiling for this) after winning the Flyingbolt. I had a lumpy bet on Twinlight for that, and despite Ruby giving the latter what I thought was a perfect ride (set slow pace, quicken from the front & do 'em for toe), BB managed to get up. Indications are that he'll love the hill. He's also entered in the Jewson, but surely the temptation to run off 140 will be too great, especially in what is likely to be a very compressed handicap.
The other horse I like who's entered for this is Shangani, but I'm hoping he runs in the Grand Annual over a trip he's better suited to imo (I've backed him for that). |
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Re: Buckers Bridge
One horse unlikely to travel though is Buckers Bridge, narrow winner of the Flyingbolt at Navan last week, and likely to wait for the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse over Easter. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2013/0226/1224330516436.html |
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Thanks Jackie, hadn't spotted that. Hopefully the temptation of being able to run off 140 will be too hard to resist. I can understand HdB wanting to give him a break given his previous flop, but that followed a gut-wrenching run whereas the Flyingbolt was a glorified sprint and won't have taken too much out of him.
BTW, have a look at Pont Alexandre's last race and you'll see why HdB describes Sizing Gold as "gorgeous". I've had a few quid on for the AB, but I'm really hoping for buckets of rain & a re-route to the Neptune, where I'm on at 1000 to small money! Could be an RSA horse next year. |
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Backed White Star Line last year and no match for Hunt Ball - has now had 3 runs at Chelt. Seems well handicapped to me
and will again have my money if getting into race. The question is - will this be a better race than last year? |
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the winner will hopefully come from 1 of these 4 lol Attaglance,Hazy Tom,Ohio Gold,Cockney Mackem fair play hope all this studing in these handicaps pay off its been a long day
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Shurrup Belmez
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@sabolah, how many people in the Syndicate?
Going to have another look at this race. All the ante-post 14s has gone now which is a shame. Hoping that it might be taken on on the day by the books as money comes for others. Will hopefully have a bit more on then. |
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There are five of us in the Stonehenge Druids.
Price has contracted from 20/1 last week to current, IMO I think as we get closer and running plans firm up a bit more people look at the handicaps. I don't think many people will miss the form lines and the fact that he seems to be well handicapped. Add in to that he fits the trends, some of the more fancied horses may not run or get in and all bookies go nrnb, then I expect further price reduction. I have seen a couple of mentions re Andy and concerns over his training, if the horse was trained by a more fashionable yard he would be a lot shorter. I guess that is the beauty of the game, everyone has their opinions and you pays your money and takes your choice. |
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Carlito - still rated 16lb lower than its hurdle mark, won the coral cup of 142 easily by 6 lengths two years ago and started fav (finished 4th) in the triumph the year before. Hcap mark very well protected this year and going as well as anything 2 out in one of the hottest novice chases of the year at the open meeting (dynaste, fingal bay, unioniste)before blowing up. Elliott said recently he cant see out the first 4. An absolute stonking bet http://www1.skysports.com/horse-racing/news/12426/8529155/Gordon-Elliott-upbeat-on-Carlito-Brigante-claims-at-Cheltenham.
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Shangani each way 16-1 NRNB is the one for me. Impressive in last 2 victories the 2nd from it's penultimate race won next time out and 3 rd horse in last race won well next time out( 2nd has not run since) . Went good pace in last race and returned decent speed figure.
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