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IrisDeBalme
19 Jan 13 22:21
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Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 1,986 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
Do you think a horse can win the Gold Cup having NOT run in either the King George and the Lexus.  Bobs Worth although winning the Hennesey in good style did not turn up for either the Lexus or the King George, most winners of the Gold Cup do follow this route. 


Does anyone have any stats to substantiate this?
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Report Brooksielad January 19, 2013 10:30 PM GMT
You have to take into account that If a horse is deemed good enough to win a Gold Cup they would usually pitch up in either one of them races, depending if there trained in Ireland or the UK. Don't worry about that stat, I'm pretty sure Bobs Worth won't go out on the 2nd circuit thinking damn I didn't run in the King George or Lexus I've got f o o k all chance of winning this. These sort of stats are quite laughable.
Report gutfeeling January 19, 2013 10:31 PM GMT
10 of last 11 Gold Cup winners were 1st or 2nd in the KG or Lexus,
14 of last 15 Gold Cup winners contested the KG or Lexus,
Working from memory so i could be slightly out,Think it's a case of the top horses head for these races hence they are such strong races from a stats viewpoint but Bobs Worth is still looking like the one to beat atm.
Report gutfeeling January 19, 2013 10:41 PM GMT
Ok just checked(very slow internet tonight)
9 of last 10 GC winners were 1st or 2nd in KG/Lexus
13 of last 15 GC winners ran in either race,
last 12 GC winners in a row contested either race,
Thought i was a bit out.
Report jasey January 19, 2013 10:51 PM GMT
I love stats and use trends but this is one not to take notice off when considering Bobs Worth
I think BW and SDC will be doing a first if one of them win,don't think a horse as won three different races in three consecutive years
Report buddeliea January 20, 2013 8:19 AM GMT
Personally would tabe absolutely no notice of the stat.
If Bobsworth could run right handed he would have been in the KG,and probably won.
As for the Lexus,may be wrong,but i dont think its a race the trainer sends horses to.

Most important thing is hes beaten the Lexus winner,and has great course form,Hes also a good stayer who jumps well.
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 8:49 AM GMT
Thanks, I thought it was a strong stat as I have always found this stat as a strong pointer to the Gold Cup...  Take Synchronised for example, even he went to the Lexus and won it and went on to the Gold Cup... the point I am making is that an unlikely winner of the Gold Cup came into consideration because of this stat.  I also think the very best horses turn up to the very best races and it raises them a notch for them a little gives them that experience really...

I would have liked to see Bobs Worth to race against these at level weights to see how good he was... as he did beat Tidal Bay who was giving him 6lb (for a 3length beating)... i do think Tidal Bay would have reversed that form tbf

But BW winning the Gold Cup? Im with the stat on this one...
Report buddeliea January 20, 2013 9:08 AM GMT
I'm a big Tidal Bay fan and backed himm in the Hennessey,but even with the weights at level i dont think TB would have won,looked to me that Bobsworth had more if needed.

By all means use the stat to determine your bets,or to dismiss horses,if you want to,thats up to you of course.

If i liked Bobsworth for the Gold Cup,which i do,think hes got everything a Gold Cup winner needs,then i would not be looking at races he aint run in,but the ones he has run in and the ones hes entered in to get him spot on come March.He stays 3m2 easily,and loves Cheltenham.

You wont see him against the Gold Cup horses at level weights before March,so really you have to weigh it all up and decide if his price is for you.
Ive not backed him,gambled on him not winning the HennesseySadbut on the day i should be in a position to,should the price be right for me.
Report roobuck January 20, 2013 9:44 AM GMT
Agree with that completely budd. Watching the Hennessy you knew from a mile out that BW was going to win and all that TB did in the Lexus was frank that form. The ground in the Hennessy didn't turn out to be too bad and if it did actually turn out to be soft, that would be only reason to doubt BW - otherwise he looks rock solid and a very worthy favourite.
Report GoldCupWinner January 20, 2013 11:03 AM GMT
The stat is meaningless when you consider Bobs Worth beat the Lexus winner quite cosily. I know he was rec 6lb but it was a lot easier than the winning margin suggested.

Are you suggesting Bobs Worth was not aimed at either of these races because Henderson thinks he wasn't good enough? I'd put it more down to the fact that one of his worst performances came at Kempton and he already had a top notch Kempton specialist in his yard.
Report GoldCupWinner January 20, 2013 11:05 AM GMT
Also didn't Imperial Commander get stuffed in the KG before winning his gold cup? The two races are very different.
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 12:07 PM GMT
If I recall Imperial needed gaps between his races, and he was not quite suited to Kempton but atleast competed in the KG which validates the stats.
Report jasey January 20, 2013 1:49 PM GMT
Why did Bobs Worth need to take part in the king george or lexus
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 2:11 PM GMT
I feel these races give the horse that vital experience in competing at the highest level, horses come on loads from that experience.  Take in the Lexus, Flemenstar didnt quite get the trip but that experience hopefully should see him handle the trip in the Irish Hennessey and he would have not got the experience in a race like that running in a handicap with a few good horses (Tidal, First Lieutenant and T43) and loads of plodders in it.

Given the Lexus or King George is there a better races than these to test the credentials of a future Gold Cup runner... No. I think the timing of the race is perfect. The reason why Henderson did not go for the KG or Lexus... could be anything... but if you have the right horse with the right credentials you should be looking atleast these two races if you want to be considered a worthy Gold Cup winner.

The Argento chase will probably be postponed next week so will be interesting where BW turns up... but at 3/1 and not contested either KG or the Lexus is a bit of a joke.  The horse needs to show more before he is shorter than the likes of Long Run.
Report buddeliea January 20, 2013 2:29 PM GMT
Well i think its a bit of a joke looking at races horses dont run in,rather than the ones they do run in,when judging a horse chances of success in a future race.
Each to their own of course,but i'm sure Mr Henderson knows what hes doing.
As i said before,he cant run right handed well,and the trainer does not send horses to the Lexus,he has his own ideas about training Bobsworth,and i see no reason why he cannot win the Gold Cup,based on his campaign.
Report GoldCupWinner January 20, 2013 2:33 PM GMT
Also noticed he's never ran on soft ground so could be a reason he avoiding the races. We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Bobs worth has plenty of big race experience imo and he finishing in front of the first two home in the lexus is good enough for me.
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 2:54 PM GMT
budd, my point is for Gold cup winners these races provide the winner... the reason being its probably the most competitive bar Gold Cup and they have then 3 months to prepare them for Chelt in light of that experience... that is the point.
Report buddeliea January 20, 2013 2:58 PM GMT
yep me too,and the trainers vast experience of training top horses would give me enough confidence as well.
Report buddeliea January 20, 2013 3:03 PM GMT
yes they have often provided the winner,but dont mean they will this time.

Look i see your point iris,and some people do agree with you.

Personally i say stuff the stats,and if Bobsworth is good enough he can win the GC with his campaign mapped out by his trainer.
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 3:09 PM GMT
yes thats a fair point I suppose... I tend to like the stats, yes they can be wrong but often put you in the right direction for finding a winner.
Report flyingbolt January 20, 2013 3:39 PM GMT
jasey

There has been a horse who won 3 different races at the festival in consecutive years.

His name was Flyingbolt.
Report Colonel Sanders January 20, 2013 3:40 PM GMT
I definitely think this stat is a case of correlation rather than causation

Gold Cup winners are generally pretty good horses. The Gold Cup is a G1 over a staying trip. The King George and Lexus are both Grade 1 races over staying trips

It seems reasonable that most "good horses" (over staying trips) will compete in either the Lexus of the KG before the Gold Cup

I suppose the question is: Do you reckon Bobs Worth didn't compete in either race because:

1. His trainer didn't think he was good enough to take a hand in the finish
2. His trainer thought these races didn't fit into his programme too well and/or had another horse more suited to track/conditions

If it's 1 the stat is relevant, if it's 2 the stat is not relevant
Report flyingbolt January 20, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
Correct,Colonel Sanders.

The stat is meaningless. The previous decade at least 4 Gold Cup winners didn't run in either the Lexus or the KG.
Report jasey January 20, 2013 6:05 PM GMT
Flyingbolt.
What races did he win
Report penzance January 20, 2013 6:34 PM GMT
don't think Jodami,did.
Did win in Ireland though.I recall.
May have been the Hennessy.
Report gutfeeling January 20, 2013 6:48 PM GMT
Cool Dawn the last horse to win GC without having a prep in KG or Lexus(1998)
Before him it was Imperial Call (1996)
Report booster January 20, 2013 8:06 PM GMT
I don't really understand why a Gold Cup winner needs to run in a King George or Lexus, particularly as one is on a track he doesn't like and one is always run in a bog. The king George winer was always viewed as a completely different type to a Gold Cup horse, probably until Best Mate won it. Perhaps the most important things are his form round Cheltenham and particularly at the festival, his most recent form and his profile, which is very progressive. I'm probably the only one on here who thinks the 3-1 NRNB is outstanding value but I really can't see why he shouldn't win.
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 8:42 PM GMT
Booster 3/1 nrnb is an outstanding price??? Id wait for the day then you might get 4/1 or even 5/1 the field.

In the last 15 years top trainers like Nicholls and Henderson have prepped their horses in the xmas feature for March. If Henderson thought it wasnt viable for Bobs Worth to turn up in the KG was probably something to do with Long Run participating as well... but accept it or not attitude towards the KG has changed massively over the years and the best horses do turn up for the race and are in the finish in the Gold Cup.

The Lexus this year was a fantastic renewal with each of the first 4 finishers strides of each other... for me the benchmark has been set. The winner likely to come from these two races.

Will be interesting to see what Henderson thinks in particular with who has the better chance Long Run or Bobs Worth for the blue riband... considering they are going to use cheekpieces for Long Run as a result of his run in the KG... Henderson (being a trainer of integrity) should tell the connections forget the cheekpieces... Bobs gonna win anyway... and advice the Cohens to snap up the 3/1 immediately...
Report alleged22 January 20, 2013 8:45 PM GMT
gold cup winner imperial comander was smashed 70 L and 58 L in king georges, great addition to the stat that these 2 races throw up the winner
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 8:48 PM GMT
Alleged and IC did not like the course... but its a good point as they used it as a preparation knowing it wouldnt suit the horse.
Report jasey January 20, 2013 9:17 PM GMT
I would turn it on its head and say forget any horse that run in the king george.
Biggest guide this year will be hennessey and lexus.
The king george will be a better guide for the ryanair.
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 9:23 PM GMT
Jasey... are you saying Long Run wont win Gold Cup?
Report alleged22 January 20, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
the KG i agree is also a good pointer for the ryanair
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 9:29 PM GMT
I suppose Riverside theatre used it for a prep last year?
Report jasey January 20, 2013 9:33 PM GMT
Well based on stats its against him isn't it
Report alleged22 January 20, 2013 9:39 PM GMT
our vic IC and albertas run also ran in the king george and then won the ryanair
Report IrisDeBalme January 20, 2013 9:40 PM GMT
to be fair the losers of the KG/Lexus tend to go for the ryanair as the distance is seen as the failure of seeing out 3 miles, for example Flemenstar will have another go at 3 miles if he fails will probably head for the ryanair (2m5f) as will a handful of others.

winners of the KG/Lexus tend to go on and win the Gold Cup.
Report jasey January 20, 2013 9:50 PM GMT
Iris your stating the obvious,its good guide thats all
Report booster January 21, 2013 9:06 AM GMT
Irisdebalme, let's wait and see how the Irish Hennessy pans out. To start with, the winner's going to have a hard race in soft/heavy ground and, if as seems likely, it's a bunch finish, surely nothing from it can shorten. Bobs Worth's got his feet up, best form in the book in the Hennessy and his RSA win looks very strong too. Long Run actually beat a non stayer in the King George but no doubt is a very good horse although I don't think he'd have won the Denman last year if Geraghty had been harder on Burton Port and his Gold Cup 3rd was arguably one of his weakest performances. Add in the fact that Henderson in all probability will already have had 6 or 7 winners and many in the better races, and I can't imagine any bookie wanting to go 4s or 5s on the Friday morning. If you think so you can lay to you heart's content on here with the added possibility he doesn't run and have a free bet on the winner on the day of the race.
Report Regular Fries January 21, 2013 9:26 AM GMT
I was going to say Denman won the hennessy and then the gold cup but he didn't, he came second in the GC that year. He won the hennessy and the lexus the year he won the GC.
Report booster January 21, 2013 9:40 AM GMT
To be fair to Bobs Worth, there was a world of difference in the 2 races. The 2012 Hennessy was a race of pure class, 2nd and 3rd coming 1st and 3rd in the Lexus but Denman beat that very slow animal of Hobbs who needed 4 miles in the mud from what I can remember. Top handicaps have become a lot tougher since that win and, in fairness to Denman, trainers rarely entered horses with his rating in handicaps but he showed it could be done.
Report Regular Fries January 21, 2013 10:35 AM GMT
what will be of concern is the liklihood of him missing this weekend's prep race at Cheltenham.
Report booster January 21, 2013 11:08 AM GMT
He didn't look like he lacked a run in The Hennessy when he was well clear of First Lieutenant. Wouldn't bother me in the slightest.
Report robbo69 January 29, 2013 7:29 AM GMT
Other than denman how was the last hennessywinner to win GC?
Maybe thats a more important stat.
Report DECALEC January 29, 2013 11:08 AM GMT
prob BURROUGH HILL LAD for the cry babyCool
Report GoldCupWinner January 29, 2013 11:22 AM GMT
Any reason why a Hennessy winner can not win a gold cup? Particularly when the Hennessy runner up wins one of the two major trials.
Report buddeliea January 29, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
nope,no reason all
Report buddeliea January 29, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
at*
Report robbo69 January 29, 2013 12:20 PM GMT
No reason just a poor trial.
Report GoldCupWinner January 29, 2013 12:25 PM GMT
It's just like any other race imo. You just need to see how the horses who competed in it run in races afterwards and judge the merits on that. I do agree that generally the horses who compete in the race will be below Gold Cup standard but there are exceptions and judging by what happened in the lexus this is one of them.
Report The Sawyer January 29, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
decalec

I think BHL won the Hennessey after he had won the GC.

The last winner (pre Denman) would probably be Bregawn.

But so what.
Report jasey January 29, 2013 8:30 PM GMT
If anything the king george was the poor gold cup trial
Report buddeliea January 29, 2013 8:44 PM GMT
yep,exactly right.
Report booster January 30, 2013 7:42 AM GMT
Full of non stayers, the King George. Anyone who thinks the Hennessy was a poor trial need to visit the Sporting Life website and see the 3 horses who fought out the finish then visit the ATR website and watch the end of the Lexus Chase. Failing that just pick up a form book.
Report buddeliea January 30, 2013 7:54 AM GMT
Yes booster,but it dont fit the trends mate.
Laugh
Report alleged22 January 30, 2013 9:16 AM GMT
imo if you ran the lexus 4 times you would have 4 diferent winners, it was a great race to watch, and i feel the hennessey should TB run will give us more information
Report booster January 30, 2013 1:41 PM GMT
So he can't win then? Stats and trends are not to be taken literally and are constantly changing. Best Mate coudn't win 3 Gold Cups, French breeds couldn't win Nationals but eventually trends change. That's really the definition of a trend. The 2 races either on the wrong track or too close to Cheltenham for a horse whose trainer says he's better with a gap between races.
Report buddeliea January 30, 2013 5:07 PM GMT
Course he can win,and running in the Hennessey and not the Lexus or KG will not be the reason if he dont.
Report booster January 30, 2013 5:22 PM GMT
OK, Buddeliea, but i'm not a trends man, as you've probably guessed. Which ones doesn't he fit? Or were you being ironic towards other posts? Sorry, I've been posting while working so may nave missed some banter.
Report buddeliea January 30, 2013 5:27 PM GMT
i aint trends person either booster,never have been,never will be.
Report IrisDeBalme March 15, 2013 11:12 PM GMT
and the answer is you can win the Gold Cup without a prep run in the Lexus or King George...! Great achievement by the yard.
Report IrisDeBalme March 15, 2013 11:12 PM GMT
and the answer is you can win the Gold Cup without a prep run in the Lexus or King George...! Great achievement by the yard.
Report buddeliea March 16, 2013 8:12 AM GMT
Yep,if you have a proven stayer, thats proven at Cheltenham, and has probably the best form going in to the race,you dont need to have run in the King George or the Lexus,or had a prep run.
You do need an exceptional horse though,and Bobsworth is certainly that,and could well run up a sequence of Gold Cups,such is his complete suitability to Cheltenham,and his ability to jump and outstay his opposition.
He looks pretty much unbeatable on his day imo.
Report resner not lesnar March 16, 2013 8:26 AM GMT
Have to say I was thinking the same Bud. Bobs Worth not be as flashy or brilliant as Kauto or Denman but does seen incredibly suited by the course and the race conditions. My only concern with him is how many tough races can such a small horse take? So far so good but, he seems tough as nails and hopefully stays that way but he rarely has an easy race, perhaps running him sparingly is the way to go ala Best Mate
Report buddeliea March 16, 2013 8:32 AM GMT
Yes resner,think you right there mate,can see him running 2 maybe 3 races a season maximum.
Hes proved he can manage with 2,so fair enough.
That way they have more chance of keeping him sound for future seasons,which does seem a popular theme with some trainers now.
In Bobsworth's case, as you say mate,sparingly could well be the way to go.
Report booster March 16, 2013 9:22 AM GMT
Very difficult to see any of the horses he beat yesterday or any of this season's novices being good enough or strong enough sayers to beat him next season if they can keep him sound. That was a performance of real power and class from 3 out.
Report buddeliea March 16, 2013 10:37 AM GMT
Yep totally agree,although have to give SC another chance as he fell when still going well.
Also the ground had a bearing on things,and it would have affected SDC chances of winning somewhat,so on better ground he could challenge Bob.Having said that BG said Bob werent really enjoying the ground,so looks like he would be even better on better ground!!
All in all my conclusion is Bob is the best around at 3m - 3m plus at Cheltenham,and the only horses i can see challenging him are SDC,SC and Al Ferof if he comes back ok,although of course he has to show us he stays.
Report buddeliea March 16, 2013 10:41 AM GMT
Cue Card i should add is another that could figure,as im sure he will be given another chance to see if he stays 3m.
This time on decent ground rather than the bog at Kempton last xmas.
Gut feeling is he will be a 2-2m and a half horse at his optimum,but he deserves another go at staying further imo.
Report booster March 16, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
On better ground I think Sir Des Champs would get the trip better but surely Bob's Worth would improve by at least the same. As for Cue Card, he was brilliant in the Ryanair but wouldn't't really fancy slogging it out in the last 2 furlongs of a Gold Cup.
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