Why are so many raving about Hurricane Fly?

Booster, with your ludicrously literal readin of the form book you must be awaiting the return of Empire Levant with bated breath

And if you knew anything about form, Barnesy,you'll realise that not all horses progress. I repeat that that form has proven to be outstanding and my reading of it remains the same. Once you realise that some horses are way better than their ORsyou''ll be able to stop backing favourites and make some money from this game.

I've also just enquired whether On His Own will be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle. Must be ahead of Hurricane Fly on today's run.

lol booster - Walsh picked wrong again!

Form looking weaker by the day. Really think he should ring Nicholls and see if he can ride Zarkandar.

Booster

Thousand Stars doesn't go on heavy, quick look at formbook shows his worst runs on it.

Then I could be mistaken but was he running over 2m5f today or 2m?

Was he conceding 7lbs to the field too?


Gotta love betfair forums

just seen the race today,that was far too bad to be his true running.
Take no notice as far as the CH concerned imo.

Of course, nobody in anyway intelligent would bud.

You can not fancy a horse without clutching at straws knocking beaten horses where horses don't give their running.

And it was heavy when he was a 5 length second to Hurricane Fly in just about the worst Grade 1 you''ll ever see. Last night you were knocking Rock On Ruby's preparation which is no worse and he's over twice the price. Can't see how beating Thousand Stars, Unaccompanied and Captain See Bee makes you Champion Hurdle favourite.

Thousand Stars' last 2 wins were over 25 and 21 furlongs on soft ground so I think I know who's clutching at straws.

What distance was the race today run over Booster?

booster,that was nowhere near TS's running today.

Actually forget it. Couldn't be bothered

i think flys price will be around 11/4 on the day

i think flys price will be around 11/4 on the day

i think flys price will be around 11/4 on the day

You could be bothered when you  thought nobody would challenge you but you know there's not one iota of substance to Hurricane Fly's form so you''ve conceded the argument. Today's race was over 21 furlongs against a Grand National favourite. Come on, if you''re going to question  last year's winner's prep you have to do so with your own fancy or you''ll never be a winner. Simple fact is that over a distance short of his best he was within 5 lengths off the horse you think deserves to be Champion Hurdle favourite but slag off a horse who comfortably beat last year's Triumph Hurdle and Fighting Fifth winner in his prep.

Yeah because Thousand Stars ran to form, loooool. Some people on here.... Oh dear lord.

You''ll note that my comment was tongue in cheek about  On His Own, or would if you had anything about you, but where is Thousand Stars, Unaccompanied or Captain See Bee' s top class hurdle form compared to Arkansas, Grandeur or Countrywide Flame?

Should read Zarkandar, Grandouet and Countrywide Flame.

Just don't see any point in wasting time typing a repost then you post one then me etc...

I have no care for your opinion. You're hardly Sint, Foyles or bud or any number of people who I return to this forum to converse with.

So I don't see any point at all in replying. Your initial position points to a total intransigence in you opinion. So what's the point?

I believe Fly will win, you do not. Opposing opinions, we'll find out in 3 weeks.

Ditto.

Oh so you don't think on his own has a chance in the Champion?

If you think what the English horses have beat this year is  better than Thousand Stars, then you probably need your head examining.

Rock On Ruby - Country Wide Flame 3 Length.

Zarkandar - Khyber Kim 4 Lengths.

Grandeout - .... Oh yeah got beat by Zarkandar.

The best of the English is Binocular and oh.... he got beat by Thousand Stars.

He could probably have won the race in  Leopardstown at the end of January.

This is getting silly. I'm a fully paid up member of the fly club and went there very smug with myself for having a shed load on at 2/1 and couldn't see him losing. I had the scarf pre made and all.

I'm still in the fly camp this year, scarf will still be on BUT in fully this year I will be going there hoping, knowing he's got a good chance but so do 3 others.

In addition to my subjective view, I also see the parallels between his prep this year in terms of well being compared to 2011 which I do think is relevant. I don't see the point whatsoever in knocking HF, ROR or Zark as they've all done what is required so far. Grandouet is a different matter however

Apologies for random sentence there - typing on iPhone when the forum thing to the left doesn't always let you see what you've written

The Fly burnt my fingers last year and won't be carrying my money. Zarkandar is the winner - why ? Because I have backed him for the World Hurdle
after his running on effort in last years CH and that's just the way my luck is going!! Still roll on the best week of the year.

I expected this thread to perk up again after today's events....what they have to do with HF though...I don't know

For the record Thousand Stars has earned £770,00 in his racing career and with another 10 yards would have won two Aintree hurdles also.

£770,000

So he needs further than two and a half to show his best? I concur. Hardly advertises HF's credentials then does it? The more I look at the race the more I'm convinced that the key to the race remains the ground. Good ground and The Fly will be squashed.

Thousand Stars is,on the evidence of 4 grade 1 races in the uk, just about the equal of Oscar Whiskey,who I believe would be around 10-1 for a champion hurdle were he to run in it.The point is Thousand Stars is a top class horse but the Fly routinely makes him look slow.
Unaccompanied divided the 2 latest "superstars",Zarkandar and Grandouet (beating grandouet by over 2 lengths) on her only run in the uk and has since been trounced 5 lengths by a heavily eased Fly.
Captain Cee Bee is pushing on now and has a history of bursting but has won a Supreme by bursting the other superstar Binocular.
Solwhit was beaten 6 times by Fly and he won an aintree hurdle and a fighting fifth.
Go Native was beaten 10 lengths on 2 occasions by Fly and won 3 grade 1s in the UK.
The Fly's form does stand up and is by far and away the most consistent of the champion hurdle entries.Sure any horse can have an off day,as last year.but I think 6-4 is about right.In fact I believe he will win it again next year!! All about opinions

Indeed it is but they have to be backed by logic and you over egg the pudding somewhat in my view. For example, Thousand Stars and Oscar Whiskey are closely matched over two and a half but I don't think many would rush to back Thousand over 2 miles as Oscar has more basic speed. So what price Oscar would be in the champion is irrelevant to Thousand being beaten on easier tracks at slower paces in 2 mile races. Captain Cee Bee is long gone and Solwhit never was at Cheltenham. The Fly beat Go Native impressively as a novice before that one won the supreme. Again it is conjecture whether that one was fully wound up at the time.

There's no doubt though in my mind that if it is soft ground The Fly will take the beating. If it is good I wouldn't back it with bananas. Like you say it's all about opinions though and it is getting close.

Firstimevisor, there are no "superstars" in this race, that's the whole point and title of this thread.

Oscar beat Thousand Stars by 2l over 2m the time they faced each other, which was in a Champion Hurdle. Which was won by Hurricane Fly.

It was customary to knock Fly's Irish form 2 years ago. He then defeated every single English horse on his next two starts.

Now we're back to fly just beating etc.. Again. All sounds so familiar.

Other horses are allowed lose their races in England and be put up like RoR and Grandouet. People have their excuses lined up for their defeats. Fly needs excuses for smashing horses on his last two starts?

Rewatch his last race. He would have won by over 10l for sure if ridden out. The time before that he was being eased just after the last flight.

We can look back on Fly's two runs at end of last season at Cheltenham and Punchestown, reflect on all the negative comments and missed preps prior to his seasonal debut in Irish Champion Hurdle. And surmise there's plenty of evidence there to believe he wasn't at his best.

We only need to watch 2 races at the end of the 2008 season from the greatest chaser ever in Kauto Star to see, horses are not machines. They can run bad races.

We expect perfection from the brilliant, but we are loath to forgive them should they ever, even just once fail to achieve it

Ruby had faith in Kauto as he knew he was brilliant. He has unwavering faith in Fly.

He is justified in that belief. I'm sure.

He's run twice at Cheltenham. He was very good but not brilliant the first time and he was average the second time. He might be brilliant this time. Third time lucky maybe. As for Oscar I think it reasonable to suppose that he will have improved from then given that he had only 7 lifetime races prior to that champion whereas Thousand Stars had vastly more experience.

Fly doesn't need excuses for smashing horses in his last two starts and neither do ROR or Grandoeut for their efforts. It's the big day which counts. The question will be asked and answered in three weeks. On good ground I think he will be found wanting. I may be wrong.

cv, you make a good point re: he seems to have to do it better than the next horse, I think that if HF had put up the display that zark did the other day, he'd have been slated, but with zark,we get nicholls has obviously left plenty to work on, it wasn't a good trial, where he once again didn't travel well.

I was thinking the other day that if HF hadn't have run last year he would probably be evens right now...

CORRECTION

have run in the CH last

The way Henderson has been talking up Binocular the 14's won't last, 8's with the magic sign.

Ladbrokes are a shambles. People think they're in the know because they go shortest on everything these days. They're heading the same direction as Vic Chandlers.

That could be an indicator as to how poor his CH squad is...

If it was that poor they'd have switched MTOY.

or it tells you he is rubbish as well - I need a rest, the conspiricie are killing me lol.

Lol!

'conspiricies'


told you i needed a rest...

Just read my Post of yesterday where Mullins said Thousand Stars was running into form and would go in the ground in the race day preview. Just sounds too much like what he said before last year's Champion Hurdle then started making excuses after the race. Does he really know? Does he say what he wants the owner to hear? I'm not sure but he certainly got it wrong about each horse. I don't make a habit of reading what he says so can't definitely say how accurate he normally is.

Yes booster, trainers know exactly when their horses will run well and when they will run poorly. So unless a trainer says pre race. "My horse is gonna run a shocker today" then we need to believe that every horse runs to form every time.

I have no problem debating pros and cons for Fly or other horses. But when proper clueless people like you clog up forums it gets tiresome.

Thought that might rattle your pathetic little cage but it's a fair point that the trainer was making exactly the same noises after his Leopardstown win last year. Very difficult when they make these comments then say completely the opposite after. Does he like heavy ground? Is he just coming to hand? If the trainer sayd 2 different things either side of the race then it's impossible for any of us to know.

I can tell who's clueless by people who constantly use smilies and petty jibes but don't offer any form based analysis just "Ruby thinks this" etc.

jeesus if only horses could talk " hey willie im not up to it today fuuking migraine , sore foot just not up to it, no that polo mint won,t help"

@alleged22.....thanks for that...nearly cried laughing

me thinks if Fly gets over sound he'll romp home

im very keen on grandouet if he gets there

booster 20 Feb 13 22:48 Joined: 17 Mar 03
I can tell who's clueless by people who constantly use smilies and petty jibes but don't offer any form based analysis

What a fcking gem

Yep, I've never written any analysis. I'm clueless

Mullins ain't the worst, he's got an RP column (his choice admittedly) and his mate Matt is always on his case for soundbites on ATR. That's just in UK so God knows what it's like in Ireland.

He's got to say something, can't say 'I don't know' and, similar to football managers, you're probably unlikely to get his most considered comments in the build up to or immediate aftermath of a big race. Probably need to nip down there in Aug before season begins for some real insight.

The media commitments are part of the job but the top trainers must see them as a necessarily evil to some extent, though they've less cause for complaint if they're being paid by likes of Betfair or RP to put information in the public domain.

Hurricane Fly clearly did have an interrupted prep last season because he missed at least one prep race, just as Zarkandar did when he only ran in Betfair Hurdle prior to Champion Hurdle.

It's easy to see both horses running bigger races than last year even without taking their trainer's comments into account.

Not only clueless but confused. On Tuesday you were telling me that he lost because he was conceding 7lbs over a trip too far when he's clearly, on all known form, a better horse over Tuesday's trip than 2 miles. The obvious point is that he didn't run his race on Tuesday, as can happen to any horse on any day but for Mullins to say he didn't handle the ground, just shows that he says different things before and after the race as he did around last year's Champion Hurdle. His form in France, which is excellent over staying trips, shows he shows good form on soft and heavy ground regularly so the excuse is invalid. Otherwise how can anyone make any form analysis of the horse.

You clearly see yourself as a "Doyen of the forum" and, as you've already stated, you don't care for my views. I don't actually give a toss, I'm in racing to win money, as I've done forever since I started keeping records and do it on the basis of watching races and reading form, not listening to trainers, jockeys, etc, who, as all winners know, mislead regularly. What you think of me is of absolutely no concern, just wish I could take your bets.

Hey Rease, nice sensible comments.

Think sometimes trainer comments can be quite helpful and sometimes not. It always depends on the trainer. There are some which consistently talk up there horses and their unbridled positivity has to be taken with a pinch of salt. There are occasionally quotes from trainers who are pessimistic that can be of some value. Obviously the trainer only really knows what's going on with his yard relative to other horses within the yard (and by looking at the collateral form like ourselves).

However sometimes it can be interesting if they say a particular horse works with another in the yard, especially a novice working with the older horses.

On the hurricane fly issue in particular Mullins is making positive noises and I am committed from a long time ago. Just something reminding me of last year when it was generally the same thing. You have to make your own mind up on whether he is a different horse or not. Reaseheath has hit the nail on the head, saying I don't know doesn't make good soundbites for the papers, much easier to say something like HF buzzing and all set for Cheltenham title challenge (not that he's actually said that)

With all betting you take into account as much info as possible and weight it accordingly.

My view is that Hurricane Fly is a very classy horse but Champion hurdle conditions are not his optimum conditions,hence whilst he can still produce very good performances he is more vulnerable than he is in Ireland. I don't think he'll win this year and as such will be looking elsewhere. Probably go with Zarkander and assume normal 5-6 improvement will take place.

6-4 Hurricane is becoming the biggest joke ive seen in 20 years of following this sport....ludicrous

He will be bigger on the day Howdi.......surely!!!

think so Budd lad are you ready for it pal ?....

nearly my friend

form easier to follow thuis year most had 3 runs only or less ....lets have the buddeliea nap please. which enclosure are you in???

i shall be in my lounge with me brother,arguing no doubt!!
have been before but we prefer not to now.

Nap:Our Conor

im surprised you arent going budd I would have put my mortgage on that

I think im going to go to Newbury next week to see Kauto dancing (as he is doing an exhibition)

What do you and your bro argu about Budd? Does he dare say a bad word about Al Ferof? :)

Nah he rates the horse as much as i do mate.
We are both Cheltenham fanatics and get on really well and in the main we agree,but every now and then it happens.
And its normally pretty good!!

I never agree with bud

...except avout binocular.

Got to admit I've doubts creeping in about Hurricane Fly. Great horse, deserves a second champion hurdle but sentiment aside, I think he might find one or two too strong. Way too short at current prices:

6 of the first 7 horses in the betting are previous Festival winners (2 * Triumph, 1 * Supreme, 3 * Champion Hurdles) and Grandouet has shown his best form at Cheltenham too. Add to that, the likes of Zarkandar, Grandouet and Rock on Ruby are going to improve with better ground.

Hurricane Fly has beaten a total of 7 horses all season all on heavy ground in uncompetitive races. Yes the manner of his wins have been impressive but have to question the strength of the form. Go Native off the track for so long was making a race of it when coming down, Thousand Stars fine animal that he is has no doubt regressed, Captain Cee Bee at his best was never any use on soft ground.

The others have been being beating one another in England and the formlines won't add up. BUT with so many of them track specialists and likely to improve for better ground, Hurricane Fly will have a race on his hands. Even Countrywide Flame and Cinders and Ashers must be counted as dangers (after all both won last year and will have been trained for this).

Only one 9yo winner in 20 years too and Hurricane Fly likely to face a lot of younger rivals. By the time the tapes go up, he may the second oldest horse in the field after Binocular (Khyber Kim, Thousand Stars and Overturn the other entries who are older).

A great horse and a great champion but time to bet sensible. There are others lurking and if, like me, you can't make your mind up as to who presents the biggest threat to the favourite, then maybe a lay of The Fly is the best option and get them all running for you.

The majority of Mullins horses were under a cloud last year - sure he had some winners but most performed under par. A few of his horses tested positive for a bug in the weeks leading up to Cheltenham too.

I can see Fly being much closer to the pace this time and Ruby will send him for home at the bottom of the hill. Whether he remains good enough we will see but I cant see Ruby giving him such a poor ride this year.

He might also be running against better opposition when he comes to Cheltenham.

It's a commonly held myth that he got a bad ride last season whereas he actually got an almost identical ride to the year of his victory but couldn't pick up when Walsh asked him before 3 out.

I think that as the season has progressed the opposition to HF has looked weaker and weaker.

He's gone off  1-6, 1-5, 2-5 and 4-11 in his 4 processions since being beaten at Cheltenham. Not exactly competitive affairs were they?

It's a wonder why none of the english superstars don't go over there more often and show him who's boss!!, plenty of prize money on offer isn't there?

ah yes, I forgot, the ground.

No need when the established races are here and ground over there always like a bog. Only one target for our best hurdles so why leave it behind chasing a few euros in races with little significance.?Mind you, Henderson did use the Leopardstown contest as a racecourse gallop for Binocular.

We'll find out soon enough, it's bloody exhausting, talking about it over and over again.

Agree. Just hope they all turn up in top form and we''ll then see a great champion, which will be what the race has missed since Istabraq and See You Then before that.

Thought Hardy Eustace was a great champion as well myself,
Real Festival loving horse with some red hot competition at the time from Macs Joy/Brave Inca and of course Harchibald,
Great times for Irish racing in the 2 mile hurdling division.

I loathe to back Hurricane Fly again after last year. I don't want to end up like this again. :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctewgQcAeNc

[youtube]ctewgQcAeNc[/youtube]

Bah didn't embed!

Remember the front page of the post on CH day that year with the pictures of the first 7 in the betting being all irish horses.

Macs Joy is just too painful for me to talk about, always travelled like the winner but just didn't get home and carried my cash a couple of times but a very good horse. Hardy Eustace also very good.

Don't forget Iktitaf

HF is top drawer but his defeat last yr, the age means at the price its worth looking elsewhere

Cheltenham is not his track

where are eeternaloptimist and the other doubters today

I was wondering when this thread would pop up, I'd be worried that the argument offered would be that he won in spite of the course, therefore the oroginal assertion was in fact correct!!

2/3 at Cheltenham,Not bad for a horse who doesn't handle the track

What a brilliant horse.How ridiculous was that original post

Totally and utterly ridiculous. I was as wrong as it is possible to be. Hats off to a great champion and apologies for ever doubting that greatness. He looked a picture before the race and he proved so many things today but chief amongst them is that he showed the heart of a lion when he looked beaten throughout the race.

To err is human; to forgive divine, Eeternaloptimist,  goodluck with your other bets at cheltenham.

It takes a good man Eternal to put his hand up when he gets it wrong -well done for that. The horse jumps stays and has pace. Easily the best since Istabraq and possibly better than him.

eternal, I am sure we are all going to be wrong in one opinion or another sometime this week. At least you tried to take on the biggest and the best! He was all heart coming up the hill, everyone who i was with thought he was beat about four from home what a phenomenal champion. Good luck with the rest of your festival endeavors.

Got stung last year but thankfully didn't let that colour my judgement. Timeform article correctly stated that context was everything for HF and despite he result last year he was still the top rated horse in the race with the best form in the book.

Why are so many people raving about Hurricane Fly? Because He quite good

Yes, well done to all Hurricane Fly backers and especially to the horse. Was off the bridle for a long time and his will to win was tangible.  He was the best horse on the day and got a great ride form a jockey who always believed in him and is riding at the peak of his powers. Proved me wrong but not the only time this week unfortunately.