puffin billy

I see its the simonsig discussion from last season all over again - except this time, the horse has changed !

Then i wanted simonsig to run in the supreme, this time am not bothered, do not know too much about this horse as yet to form an educated opinion myself and so just backed him at 6/1 with billys to win any race at the festival! 10/1 for one race, 12/1 for other but 6s for any, i no which i prefer! (at this stage)

Nice to see Sherwood have a decent horse at long last, he was a top trainer when i was a kid - Cruising Altitude and The West Awake both top drawer novices for him back in the day, think he'l end up in the Neptune though.

Think fast run 2 miles it what he wants, as he pulls hard not sure longer trip is what he wants imo.

seathestars 6-1 is horrible about him for any race...you will get that on the day don't panic plenty of time

and if he dots up next time?

Bridle horses dont tend to win supreme nov hurdle. They do , however win the Neptune.
Favs in the Neptune have the best record of any race at the Festival. Not the Supreme.
Advice.
Keep your powder dry. See the going on the day, and have a small punt.
Wait for following day to have a decent punt on Neptune. Supreme graveyard for form punters. Dunguib couldnt lose??

Bridle horse??

1 thing, 6/1 is an awesome price, once it runs again, if it dots up and trainer then says it is going for a particular race, all of a sudden its fav for that said race i am confident of that! And my 6/1 for any race is all of a sudden 9/4 area (thats saying he is made 7/2 jolly)
That said, i am kinda hoping he remains a backable price in place market after next race but i doubt that happening very much, 11/4 now, he become 5/4 6/4 in place market if the above happens so my thinking along the lines of have this win only bet at 6/1 any race now, wait till race has been decided then have place bet on here has become some what flawed by looks of it.

Don't understand the benefit of win any race betting. A novice is only ever really going to have two options and for each winner, the books are only going to pay out half the odds for each race.

And at 6/1 you have to be absolutely sure he'd win either race - and you've admitted you don't know too much about the horse.

The VC offer would be much better in this instance

I just look at the odds on offer, 10/1 for one race, 12/1 for other, but combined at this early stage without knowledge of what race, 6/1 for either is way to go i think as ok, back him for both then, lose one stake but obv keep the other? Am not so sure about that, oh and vc's offer is of a free bet to the same stake, i think their rule that saying that concession can only be used in backing one horse per event per race see's to that.  And even if it dont your stake is not returned with any returns is it. 6/1 far better

OK I see your point re VC offer - personally if I was that confident on the horse I would back him at best odds for the race I thought he was most likely to go for and then cover with VC.

Alternatively back him with VC for the Neptune as his entry for trials day seems to indicate where they likely see him going. If he fails to stay or is unimpressive in that race, are his odds really likely to shorten for the Supreme?

some bookies out there will give you approx 3/4 the odds available (with a run) and surely this is better value to backing a horse to win any race.

was very impressive at Ascot, I know the trainer wants to see hi over further but feel that the decision over the festival could be affected by the ground a lot nearer the time. You might be best waiting for ladbrokes to go NRNB as they will almost certainly be better value than VC.

Don't Laddies just go NRNB on the championship races at this stage?

thats what i thought roo.

Well im certainly glad i used the VC offer to cover him in the Neptune,given his trainer talking about the Neptune trial at Cheltenham for his next race.
To be honest i really aint sure which distance would see him at his best,but i suspect he will be fine in either race.Ground may well determine which race he ends up in,so could be we wont know till March.
Hes a bl00dy exciting horse,that i do know,and look forward to see how he fares when up against the other top novices.

Well i thought it was very good value just on the odds part of it. He is a very exciting horse and both me and my friend (it was he who put me onto it) feel where ever he may go he will be possibly the biggest mover in the antepost list for whatever race he is to go for, i.e he feels he will be catapulted to favoritism for either race as soon as trainer nominates. As for running his next race, he is sure to shorten further for either and so the reasons behind us taking the 6s on offer for either race.
I had thought about backing for both, splitting stakes, and am still thinking about this as the bet at 6s is win only and everyone knows i love my each way, may well back it before his next run may well wait and see what happens but am happy with the bet and that is all that matters.

Matter of opinions really

GL

Nowt wrong with your bet on the strength that he will probably be shorter than 6 in the race he lines up in mate.

i got on at 20 for the supreme on here,and to me it made sense to use VC for the cover Neptune bet,as at the time i thought the Supreme more likely,and i could back another in the neptune with my money back.
I will lose my supreme bet if he runs in neptune,but overall like you im happy with the bets.
Antepost is not normally easy!!

I was a bit startled with that comment about PB being a bridle horse. He seems to me to have a good change of gear at the end of his races and doesn't look like a strong travelling bridle ponce at all. Matter of opinion I suppose.

me too,he dont look a bridle type to me either,although till a horse gets him off it we wont know for sure i guess.

@red and white, agree was a bit surprised to. I was at Ascot when he won and it was a real genuine performance on ground that was extremely tricky. I see no reason why a strongly run 2m like the supreme wouldn't play to his strength especially if the ground was soft or worse. The Supreme is normally run at a decent clip with a consistently large field which would play to his strengths. It might be a staying test enough going 2m with the hill finish in the current weather conditions.

SEATHESTARS....NO1
02 Jan 13 18:25
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Well i thought it was very good value just on the odds part of it. He is a very exciting horse and both me and my friend (it was he who put me onto it) feel where ever he may go he will be possibly the biggest mover in the antepost list for whatever race he is to go for, i.e he feels he will be catapulted to favoritism for either race as soon as trainer nominates. As for running his next race, he is sure to shorten further for either and so the reasons behind us taking the 6s on offer for either race.
I had thought about backing for both, splitting stakes, and am still thinking about this as the bet at 6s is win only and everyone knows i love my each way, may well back it before his next run may well wait and see what happens but am happy with the bet and that is all that matters.

Matter of opinions really

GL Wink






I have to say this just isn't good betting imo

these victor chandler and william hill offers are poor for me if you are that confident of a bet you have to back your judgement...for me sighting a wager requires me figuring out what is the best play for the horse and the price I wish to back at...if the horse is your major fancy for the supreme do you believe he is still worth the bet in a race over a different distance?

and to play him at 6-1 just isn't good judgement even if he is 9-2 on the day with ground and everything else considered

I wish you all well but for me it is very speculative

for what it is worth he will be 5-1 even if bolting up in the trial and if you still think he is worth the wager bet him then

the vc offer just scews you because if you are confident enough to bet good money you will be backing something else for an opinion that you may not be so strong about for the same stake if the animal doesn't run

horrible stuff and pity the punter that feels it so necessary to bet in this manner

I wish you all well and hope you don't take this to a dig at anyone of you, but cannot make sense of it from a betting medium

feel free to copy and paste this when the horse spunkks up at 5-2

I agree, the reason I agree is that at this moment in time the horse in question does not look like he'll be favorite for his chosen race. Jezki will be favorite (supreme) and mullin's choice will be favorite for neptune. Taking 6/1 to win either might look reasonable and indeed might prove to be great value but i'd be very surprise come the day if the 2nd favorite for either of these races is much lower than 6/1. Come the day you'll either be a runner or a non runner. I respect what the trainer has to say and on his races to date I couldn't argue that he's not the real deal, however compared to the horses Jezki is beating beating I wouldn't have him at double his price if they meet.

Well already have JEZKI @ 8/1 and MTOY @ 10/1 & 20/1 in my portfolio for the supreme, and as yet nothing for the neptune apart from this 6/1 voucher. See what you saying Harry but no logic in betting just one horse in a championship race when in actual fact it is far easier to build a back-book using antepost prices on selections with a better than 90% chance of the race he is going to race in, then it is in the lap of the gods as to whether said horse gets to the race in one piece or not!
Tis the way i bet, always trying to have almost every runner i can perceive as being good enough to win said race, all each way and with staking carefully so as to ensure a profitable return with only the winner and no placings to collect per event.
I am hoping to place a small bet each way on PUFFIN BILLY just not too sure yet, i think i may just wait to see for what race he drifts out to 20+ on here for first and then back him for the other very quickly as this is 95% of the time a very good indicator to which race he should be running in! Though if i am not quick enough i fear his odds will tumble to at least half currently.
The 6/1 bet is merely a small extra piece of insurance for this!

these victor chandler and william hill offers are poor for me if you are that confident of a bet you have to back your judgement

Harry,
If like me you had 20/1 on Puffin Billy,and the trainer came out a week later and said he may step him up in distance,then surely the VC offer applies,cos then i can back him for the Neptune with them knowing i have a bet on the day on either PB or another that i think i would want on my side.
I would lose my supreme bet whatever anyway if he ran in the Neptune.
with VC its possible to have PB in the supreme and another in the Neptune,or just PB in the Neptune.
Thats all ok with me mate.

Looks like he is Neptune bound now.

what you heard chief?

RP Budd.

OLIVER SHERWOOD is leaning towards running the unbeaten Puffin Billy in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, not the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, at the Cheltenham Festival.

Sherwood revealed his preference in a stable tour appearing in Wednesday's Weekender.

The five-year-old, who brought his run of wins to four with a comfortable Grade 2 win at Ascot last month, is as short as 8-1 second favourite for the Supreme over 2m ½f and 10-1 joint third favourite for the Neptune over 2m 5f.

Sherwood said: "So far he has only been running on ground with plenty of give which brings his stamina into play and I am leaning towards aiming him at the Neptune Hurdle rather than the Supreme.

"I am sure he would get the longer trip and be comfortable at that speed before quickening, whereas I am concerned they might get him at it too soon in the Supreme, though we will decide after his next run."

Puffin Billy is likely to make his next appearance at Haydock on Saturday January 19, Sherwood added, although he also has the option of a race at Cheltenham's Trials Day the following weekend.

"[He] will probably still be over two miles in the Rossington Main Hurdle at Haydock, which we won with Cruising Altitude in the past, as I want him to be comfortable running at speed before Cheltenham, where they go half a gear faster than anywhere else all year," he said.

"That said, we have the option of stepping him up to 2m4f at Cheltenham’s trials meeting later this month."

Ah,thanks mate.

Interesting stuff,reading that i think it will have to be similar ground that weve been having for him to run in the Supreme.

interesting the money on river maigue for the supreme in the last 2 days...I wonder whether barry geraghty has had a say and will keep the ride on puffin billy for the neptune??

Refreshing for a trainer to come out reasonably early to say what was most likely.

10s still widely available for Neptune, a couple have reacted.

Really strange that he has seemingly made a decision about the target but has changed his mind about the prep race such that the step up in trip will wait until the Neptune. Think he is taking a huge risk stepping a free-running horse up half a mile in what may be a more competitive race. Will be an absolute disaster for the trainer if he doesn't get the trip. You can almost bank on the Supreme being run on good to soft or softer. It still wouldn't surprise me if the bookmakers fill their boots on the Neptune and then he eventually ends up in the Supreme.

He's starting to look over-hyped. Using the Haydock race as a prep for the Neptune doesn't sound a good idea.  Are they frightened of bursting the bubble in the Cheltenham trial? Prevarication suggests he may not be good enough to win either race.

Well visual impression says he is,we will have to wait and see.
Certainly looks good to my eye,and if the trainer uses a certain race for prep,so what.
All they need to do is get to March in the best shape possible,sure Mr Sherwood knows what hes doing,been around long enough.

He looked good to my eye too but as a two miler. I agree Sherwood knows what he's doing and he's telling us he doesn't think he's a horse for the Supreme at this stage (though he may change his mind). That pisses on my bonfire. I can sit on my bets for the time being as they're in the 50's and will see if there is a change of mind after the Rossington Main. It was the trial used by Cinders and Ashes after all. I have a covering bet in the Neptune but if he runs in that I will probably drop the bet in the run up as I think on reflection that he runs too freely for that race and something would come to chin him up the hill.
I think it was a good point about Geraghty who holds a few aces in the Supreme and he may influence Sherwood's decision, though I think Jezki would be his choice if it was in his hands. He's certainly got a difficult decision and so has Sherwood who seems to be going cool on his stable jockey after the Furrows affair (he was quoted as saying it was unfair on the horse, owner and trainer - didn't mention the jockey.)
Of course it could also be the usual smokescreen that allows connections to make money laying a horse for a race it will never run in. You have to factor that into ante-post betting nowadays.
So sitting tight for the time being but certainly not adding to my bets.

Sherwood can't really afford not to know what he is doing. Been banging on about this horse for a long time and if he is to attract better horses and new owners a massive blunder in race selection will do him no favours at all. It would be nice if we had some sort of jockey clarification - from the moment he mentioned the Neptune I wondered if it was a case of can't get Geraghty for Supreme but might be available for the Neptune.

Agree with that differentdrum. Have banged on about this, but imo no way the horse will get home over 21f in the Neptune given how hard it pulls and the speed it shows.

Interesting point about Geraghty. Always thought it was his fault that meant Simonsig ran in the Neptune last year. Wanted to be able to ride strong contenders in both races. Jockeys should do whats best for the horse, not whats best for them. Aspell may well keep the ride. Its a bit cynical but would suit Geraghty well to divert a danger to Jezki to the other race, especially if he could ride Puffin in the Neptune.

I'd imagine that BG will be retained for Henderson to ride whatever he has for the Suprememe or Neptune, so bang goes the conspiracy theory. If he has had a say in it, 'if', then he's in a good position to offer advice as he has ridden Jezki, and knows about Hendersons.

There are alternatives for Geraghty in the Supreme but so far Henderson has nothing obvious for the Neptune.

Do you really think this is all about what B.G wants or states. There are fewer people as shrewd as Mr Sherwood in the racing game and he will do what he believes to be right. That might not be  what some or all agree with, but so far he has done a great job with the horse.

Perfectly reasonable to speculate about Geraghty if the alternative is Leighton Aspell. Getting the services of a top jockey is pretty important. If Sherwood is one of the shrewdest operators that view is clearly not widely acknowledged/appreciated as the stable numbers/quality have dipped alarmingly since the glory days. Nobody is doubting the job he has done up to now but it is only fair to point out all of that may easily be forgotten if the decision backfires. Leaving aside the jockey issue with the Supreme it is a simple case of whether he is good enough but with the Neptune you have to ask whether he will stay and if he does will he be good enough. That clearly is a gamble.

Nowt wrong with listening to the jockey,especially one like BG,but trainer and owner will ultimately decide.
The ground will hold sway more than the opinion of BG imo.

Let's hope it's soft then. I've had a good run as a lot of the soft ground form has been working out. My bets are on the turn now though. Never like this month.

Still being cut for Neptune. Has Sherwood said something else? You would have thought that after The New One's performance the Neptune became an even harder race to win.

They may meet in the Cheltenham trial.

Not heard anything,still think its all about the ground with this one,and i would think a lot of others.

anyone else get the feeling this crop of novices this season is far better than the trash from last season (bar simonsig).

If you fancy one of the novices strongly, then you either have to back them for each race they are likely to contest, or back them to win any race (which I presume is tantamount to the same thing).

When you have Mullins and Hendo playing silly buggers and JP and O'Leary to keep happy, anything is possible.

Yes Brooksie,you have a fair point there.

We look like we are going into a purple patch for a few years...........hopefully!!

Theres some cracking prospects around for sure.

It's interesting that sometimes horses are diverted to the Neptune in search of a easier race (or more winnable) than their chances in the Supreme. This year I think the Neptune looks a cracking renewal and so Puffin Billy could possibly be running in a hotter race than if he were to take his part in the Supreme. Apart from Jezki all the other main protagonists have some doubts where as the Neptune there seems to be four or five horses with huge potential. I have been researching the Neptune for a while now and the main form of the front runners stands up to a lot of scrutiny.

The weather could be a factor here, I thought they were aiming Puffin Billy at the Cheltenham meeting next saturday (all though someone pipe up if I'm wrong). If they can't get a run over further than 2m because that meeting gets cancelled could cause the trainer to have a change of heart. The clock is ticking.

@brookshielad - I feel the same looks some cracking Novices about

I actually think that the Supreme has two horses with proven Grade 1 form, and others that also have huge potential. Yes there are doubts about them but then there are about most of them at this stage of their career and that goes for both races.

They should point PB at the race over the distance that connections think should his abilities best. From what I've seen, there's nothing to suggest he'll improve for the step up

So what happens if next weeks off??
Supreme??

if its soft he will go for the supreme,if its the usual festival going he will run in the neptune

Agree

interesting to see the range of views. I think OS really wanted to step up to see if the horse could stay the trip. If the opportunity dissipates for me it changes things as they wouldn't want to go into the festival hopping rather than knowing.

For me the decision is less ground dependent. Could create a bit of volatility if cheltenham is frozen off. Although I hope it isn't

Not running Saturday - if its on,going to Exeter next month.

So he thinks he can beat these horses in the Neptune but is running scared in the trial? What distance is the Exeter race?

2m1f

Has beaten nothing of note so far,but has beaten 2nd rate novices easily.Disappointing not going to run Saturday,not sure why not?

Supposedly, he was going to use the trial to see if the horse stayed. Now he's dodging The New One and aiming to run at a shorter distance it all looks to have been a smokescreen.

There is 1 2m1f and a 2m3f on the card, the 2m1f is a listed race so assume its that one

Trainer Oliver Sherwood had previously stated he was favouring the longer Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle for his unbeaten youngster, but the prevailing conditions have seen him have a change of heart.

Puffin Billy was entered last weekend in the race won by Rebecca Curtis' At Fishers Cross, but Sherwood decided to swerve it as he did not fancy running him over two miles and five furlongs for the first time in heavy ground.

"I was perturbed about running over that trip for the first time on very tiring ground," Sherwood told At The Races.

Profiles O Sherwood Puffin Billy (IRE)
"If it had been two miles I would have taken those horses on but, as everyone knows, Billy can be quite keen over two miles.

"I was aware of him having a hard race quite close to the Festival. I was not scared of the opposition, I was impressed by them but I didn't want him having a hard race before March.

"He'll go to Exeter on Sunday week for a Listed hurdle over two-one. He's in A1 form and I'm very happy with him.

"He'll have entries in both races in March. I know I said I was swaying towards the Neptune but my gut feeling, if it's soft ground, (is) he'll almost certainly run in the Supreme and if it's drier than that, I might switch to the Neptune. I'm pretty certain we'll wait until closer to the race (before making a definite decision).

"I'm sure punters will understand six weeks is a long time between now and Cheltenham, it's unlikely they'll be talking of watering.

"My gut feeling is two miles at the moment if the ground stays as soft as it is."

As I said in my original comment you can almost take it as read that the meeting will kick off on good to soft or softer.

If the ground is good to soft, which is most likely, then I'm sure he'll run in the neptune.

Have always thought it would come down to the ground,seems hes confirmed that now.

The odds have clearly swung in favour of the Supreme.

If the ground is good he might run in the Neptune. Highly unlikely.

When are the decs for supreme and Neptune out?

Entries are released at noon tomorrow

See hes entered up at Newbury Saturday and Exeter sunday,both about 2m.
Looking forward to see him up against better opposition.
Horse he beat lto ran well today.

Big race for Puffin today up against melodic.
Not sure what he will make of conditions,looks like very heavy ground.
Wonder if both will line up??

Well that was desperate today.
See PB is being scoped after that performance.
Winner was impressive though,and must be a real threat in his chosen race.
As for PB we will have to wait on his scope,and if nowt wrong i can see the Neptune as his race,probably is anyway.

osh apiafi ‏@joshapiafi
From @tarnyasherwood: Leighton was unhappy with Puffin Billy during the race today and he has been pronounced lame by vets @ExeterRaces

oh,did not know that,lets hope it aint too serious and he can still make the festival.

explains the poor run but would have to put cheltenham in doubt...

You wouldn't be wanting to risk your hard earned on this, whatever race they choose for him. Better options in both the Supreme and Neptune and if he was lame, he might not pitch up anyway.

Sounds like the Sherwood camp are desperate to find an excuse for that run....returning "lame" isn't necessarily the answer as he may have just rapped himself on a hurdle and that wouldn't have affected his performance in any way.

Until we find out more, it's best to assume that he was just outclassed by a better horse....a far better horse imo.

so we cant assume hes lame when the vets have said he was?

Personally wont be assuming anything till we hear more,and assuming he was outclassed is rather dangerous if hes a valid reason.

Lameness in horses and other equidae is a term used to refer to any number of conditions where the animal fails to travel in a regular and sound manner on all four feet

Laminitis or other inflammatory diseases of the hoof
Injury to bone, muscle, tendons or ligaments, ranging from pulled muscles to broken bones.
Complications of inflammation or stocking up related to overwork
Injury induced by compensation for strain or pain in other parts of the body, particularly the back
Neurological disorders, such as Wobbler's syndrome
Swelling and inflammation linked to infection, such as cellulitis or thrush.
Hoof problems, including injury, disease and poor farrier work
Diseases affecting connective tissue, such as Equine Exertional Rhabdomyolysis and HYPP
Conformation defect leading to stress or injury


Sounds like the Sherwood camp are desperate to find an excuse for that run....returning "lame" isn't necessarily the answer

if he,s lame he is lame get over it, i find it a rather plausible excuse and expect a better run when he is right again

Not sure what you're getting at. Where did I say I disbelieved the vet?

All I'm saying is that a bit of lameness after a race isn't NECESSARILY the reason for a poor performance during it.

he didn't look lame until either the last or 2nd last where jumped it absolute drunk, he could of hurt himself there perhaps pulling something as he landed very awkwardly, either way he was never going to win yesterday.

The best horse won on the day, I think Puffin Billy will be a better horse on better ground though personally.

The supreme market he drifted more significantly than for the Neptune. I haven't seen a replay but will be interesting to see what if anything comes to light over the next few days. It might have been that the horse was injured before the race or during it and only started being hampered by it over the last few hurdles. Always dangerous to write off a horse on one bad run. MOTY ran a bit flat at Newbury and would have been very unwise to consider that he had found his level.

I will wait and see what they comeback with before judging too categorically.

Yesterday was basically hype versus substance and substance was by far the better. Whatever excuses have been put forward it might be dangerous to look at the race in any other way. Melodic Rendezvous had Puffin Billy's number at every stage of the race and has a solid chance in the Supreme. Personally, I like him more than Jezki. As for Puffin Billy if he recovers he isn't good enough for the Supreme and pulls much too hard to contemplate running in a Neptune. Probably best missing the Festival altogether.

^ Very good appraisal DD which I totally concur with.

Well i think it only fair that we should reserve judgement until the exact cause of the lameness is revealed.
Thats what i shall do anyway.

Sherwood has just texted everyone, so check yer phones.

Just to keep everyone in the picture the farrier has just attended to Puffin Billy. He was found to have puss in his off fore hoof that has burst out.

PUFFIN GROUNDED BY HOOF ISSUE
11 Feb 2013



A reason for what looked a below-par performance by Puffin Billy at Exeter on Sunday appears to have been revealed, with the smart novice hurdler found to have pus in one of his hooves.

Unbeaten in four starts prior to a Listed event at the Devon course, Oliver Sherwood's gelding was sent off the odds-on favourite but proved no match for Melodic Rendezvous and was beaten by nine lengths.

Found to be lame by the Exeter vets, Puffin Billy has entries in the William Hill Supreme and Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdles at Cheltenham.

Sherwood said: "My farrier dug out a whole load of pus from one of his feet (on Monday morning). What with the wet weather, it's like getting a blister and he'll have two or three quiet days having it poulticed.

"Hopefully he'll be able to be ridden towards the end of the week.

"I don't like to have sour grapes, and take nothing away from Melodic Rendezvous, but at least we have some sort of reason for his run."

Thats that then.
So now we wait and see how he performs in his next run.
Hopefully,he runs well.

Whichever you call it, not a good preparation for Cheltenham. If he does run. he will do remarkably well to place imo.

Good news. Infections in the feet are a very common problem when there's a spell of wet weather. Explains why he veered off to his right at the second last. He'll only be held up for a few days and this has absolutely no bearing on his chances next run. But he still wouldn't have got near the winner even if 110% imo.

It's funny how different opinions can be!

I've watched him closely all season, and watched Sunday's race a few times. I think it's perfectly possible that the infection could have been hurting him, especially towards the end of the race, I am nigh-on certain he will be better suited by quicker ground so that he can use his cruising speed, and I cannot for the life of me understand why the trainer or anyone else would be leaning towards going further than two miles. He looks a total two-miler to me and although I don't think he'll get to My Tent Or Yours, I think he has very real place prospects on better ground in a Supreme. For what it's worth, I also really like Melodic Rendezvous and don't think it was a disgrace to be beaten by him when just about everything else went against Puffin Billy on the day.

Don't write him off just yet!

Be stupid to write him off after one bad run with a bad foot,although some on here seem to be,bit weird but
there yer go.
His next run will be interesting,i wonder,will it be at the festival??
As for his race i think on normal festival ground it will be the Neptune,soft or worse probably supreme.

I had a decent bet on Puffin Billy and felt stupid after the race for doing so. As said above, substance v hype. Grade 1 winner v promising horse (admittedly a Grade 2 winner) but I had bought into Puffin Billy being a machine. The only machine on Sunday was Melodic Rendezvous who was never at any stage going to lose that.

I don't feel unlucky that Puffin Billy had a Pussin Foot, he was still 39l clear of the next so didn't run poorly. Even if the foot did cause him to run below par (which I'm sure it did to an extent), it would have to have utterly ruined him for him to get trounced as soundly as he did, and I don't believe that was the case. I more feel stupid for discounting a Grade 1 winner because I thought it was a poor renewal of a poor Grade 1 (Tolworth) that Melodic Rendezvous had won and thought Puffin Billy would expose that.

I can't say I care any more. This thread is going round in circles.

anyone know what has been said by sherwood about horses target?? trading at 60 on here for supreme and 16.5 for neptune...didn't know he had committed him to the neptune

Well he looks a staying chaser in the making so he'll prob go Neptune unless it comes up pretty soft.

trainer always said, neptune if the ground is decent, supreme if it's not.

If the real Billy turns up  must be a great EW "STEAMER".

"Puffin Billy and Many Clouds worked very well this morning...am very happy with how they are" Oliver Sherwood

Thats good to hear,expecting a big run.

I can't see anything in his form that suggests he's a likely winner. I took the view in early January that he was over-hyped and nothing that's happened since changes that view. If anything events have reinforced it. I still have the non-runner free bet on the Neptune from when I fell for the Sherwood nostalgia trip (I was a big fan before he blotted his copy book) but I'll lay it off if PB runs. Good luck anyway budd.