Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
looks good this one,like him a lot and backed him for supreme at nice odds on here,but think i may have to cover for the Neptune.
Any thoughts??
Any thoughts??
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 125
|
By:
yes he looks the real deal this fellow budd...still along way off and trainer already saying ground will be a factor in which race he turns up in...so will wait till the day myself as cannot be asked with the guessing game...nice if you have the prices but up in the air in regards race...why not lay off for a green budd and not go through it...I think the long race is in the trainers mind but who knows hate all these games
|
|
By:
looking at his action better ground will be no problem...for sherwood to compare him with the top class large action is saying something...I won't be dismissing him lightly...
|
|
By:
thinking taking up the bet v offer,and backing him in the neptune.
if he runs in supreme i have my original bet,and can back something else with my stake back. |
|
By:
fair logic that budd I know you don't lay so probably the way to go for you...
what race do you think would be the better option for the horse?? pocket talk aside obviously... |
|
By:
Even allowing he is a novice, he is a pretty awkward jumper; he gets a few spot on but too many wrong imo. I'd want to see quite an improvement in his technique before backing for festival
|
|
By:
When I look at the ante-post betting for both races I see some good horses at the top of the Neptune list who are bound to be going for that race. At the top of the Supreme list I see some horses that have ducked Puffin Billy and others that I don't rate highly, Jezki excepted. Twice now Henderson has pulled out good novices at the final declaration stage instead of allowing them to take on PB. I like to believe Barry Geraghty advised him in that respect as he has spoken highly of PBs pace, though the decisions could have been entirely ground related. I'll run my colours up the Supreme mast and see who salutes.
By the way budd I like your VC advice and have acted on it as I want to make sure I have both options covered at a decent price though I have to declare a financial interest in the Supreme so you're entitled to take what I've said above with a pinch of salt though it is my honest opinion. The small fly in the ointment is that Oliver wouldn't baulk at the Champion Hurdle if he thought this novice was as good as Large Action but if he's only contemplating one more run at the end of January prior to the Festival I'm ruling out that option. |
|
By:
Glad this fellow has got his own thread !!deserved imo
We know he hasn't beaten much but think he's got the X factor ,if he hailed from one of the powerhouse stables he'd be alot more on the radar |
|
By:
hes won well but does he really look like a 2m hurdler to you? not to me.
|
|
By:
Yes he really does. Shows absolutely tons of speed. No need to step him up in trip atm.
|
|
By:
Just a very exciting horse.hope he keeps sound
|
|
By:
Saw PB win at Newbury and followed him in again at Ascot,he is a 2 miler has nice turn of pace and is a powerful traveller,for me the problem is jumping as he can miss a few no real problems in egg&spoons but in a championship race he will quickly get shuffled back in the pack and may well not recover. If PBs jumping improves he would be right in the mix a lay on the day for me if no evidence of improved hurdling technique before then.
|
|
By:
Looks a complete natural for the Supreme to me so was surprised when Sherwood said he might go for Neptune.
|
|
By:
chelters 16 you make some good points about his jumping I can see why the trainer is thinking the longer race for him as there won't be so much pressure put on his technique...he won easily over 2 mile 2furlongs in a nhf race and I see a lot more improvement when stepped up in trip...might just have a dabble in that race
|
|
By:
Reflecting on the winner's performance, Geraghty said: "He was very good. He settled much better than he did in his bumper. He missed one jump and gets a bit anxious at times, but he's got an engine and he jumps very well. He won as he liked."
Sherwood said: "It's very exciting to have a proper horse, he's potentially my best since Large Action. "Hopefully he'll be going to Cheltenham but which race I don't know. He'll have entries at 2m and 2m4f and the ground will determine which one." what do you make of that... says to me unless its very soft he will go to the longer race...ah very annoying will just play shorter when the target is known shame cause he is a nice price for the longer race |
|
By:
Agree his jumping can improve,and his trainer did say that,so will be working on that for sure.Having said that to me it did not look too bad,and it certainly aint putting me off.
i have to look at covering the neptune definitely after trainers quotes. hes a major player in whatever race he ends up in,and imo one to have on side. |
|
By:
You'd want to see him take the flights consistently well but the way he took the last at Ascot shows what he's capable of and I think you'll see him jump better on better ground. I certainly wouldn't be making a judgement on his jumping ability after two hurdle races on soft and heavy ground.
|
|
By:
On him for Supreme at 60s plus for few quid, still lot to prove imo as beaten nothing so far next run maybe find out if very good on better ground. Way too short in betting now with many others still to play hand eg Henderson and Mullins novices still to come.
|
|
By:
Tbh prefer my 40s on Un Atout this could be the real deal will find Leopardstown over xmas.
|
|
By:
As you like but according to Mullins "He's probably more of a stayer and he's a chaser for the future" so that's not a ringing endorsement for the Supreme and I think he has more to proove. In short you have the same dilemma as PB fans. Good point about novices yet to make their debut.
|
|
By:
Mullins put everyone away, should not read what he says.
|
|
By:
Yes, though I posted the quote because I agree with him.
|
|
By:
Nice horse PB. Last horse to win the Ascot race he won and nearly win at the festival was Medermit.
|
|
By:
Billy skips Tolworth
Last Updated: December 30 2012, 15:16 GMT Puffin Billy's run at Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day is likely to decide which race will be his target at the big March meeting. Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle. Click here to bet. Puffin Billy: Cheltenham aim Puffin Billy: Cheltenham aim Trainer Oliver Sherwood is to run his exciting recruit in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle on January 28. The Upper Lambourn handler is hoping that race will provide him with the answer of whether to go for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle over an extended two miles or the Neptune over a further five furlongs. Puffin Billy is currently a top-priced 10/1 for the Supreme and 12s for the Neptune after winning his two starts over hurdles in tremendous style. "He's grand. I was half thinking of going for the Tolworth next Saturday, but I'm not going to," Sherwood told At The Races. "I'm going to keep my guns dry and go to Cheltenham on Trials Day for the two and a half mile novice hurdle. "Then we'll decide whether he's going to go for the two mile or the two and a half mile novice at the Festival. |
|
By:
Sherwood is mad, horse has 2 miler written all over it. Tons of speed and takes ages to settle, might as well pin a sign to its chest saying "hi oliver, i'm a 2 miler". FFS
|
|
By:
He looks more like a two and a half miler to me. I can't say i see him troubling them in a supreme.
|
|
By:
I see its the simonsig discussion from last season all over again - except this time, the horse has changed !
 Then i wanted simonsig to run in the supreme, this time am not bothered, do not know too much about this horse as yet to form an educated opinion myself and so just backed him at 6/1 with billys to win any race at the festival  ! 10/1 for one race, 12/1 for other but 6s for any, i no which i prefer! (at this stage) |
|
By:
Nice to see Sherwood have a decent horse at long last, he was a top trainer when i was a kid - Cruising Altitude and The West Awake both top drawer novices for him back in the day, think he'l end up in the Neptune though.
|
|
By:
Think fast run 2 miles it what he wants, as he pulls hard not sure longer trip is what he wants imo.
|
|
By:
seathestars 6-1 is horrible about him for any race...you will get that on the day don't panic plenty of time
|
|
By:
and if he dots up next time?
|
|
By:
Bridle horses dont tend to win supreme nov hurdle. They do , however win the Neptune.
Favs in the Neptune have the best record of any race at the Festival. Not the Supreme. Advice. Keep your powder dry. See the going on the day, and have a small punt. Wait for following day to have a decent punt on Neptune. Supreme graveyard for form punters. Dunguib couldnt lose?? |
|
By:
Bridle horse??
|
|
By:
1 thing, 6/1 is an awesome price, once it runs again, if it dots up and trainer then says it is going for a particular race, all of a sudden its fav for that said race i am confident of that! And my 6/1 for any race is all of a sudden 9/4
 area (thats saying he is made 7/2 jolly)That said, i am kinda hoping he remains a backable price in place market after next race but i doubt that happening very much, 11/4 now, he become 5/4 6/4 in place market if the above happens so my thinking along the lines of have this win only bet at 6/1 any race now, wait till race has been decided then have place bet on here has become some what flawed by looks of it. |
|
By:
Don't understand the benefit of win any race betting. A novice is only ever really going to have two options and for each winner, the books are only going to pay out half the odds for each race.
And at 6/1 you have to be absolutely sure he'd win either race - and you've admitted you don't know too much about the horse  .The VC offer would be much better in this instance |
|
By:
I just look at the odds on offer, 10/1 for one race, 12/1 for other, but combined at this early stage without knowledge of what race, 6/1 for either is way to go i think as ok, back him for both then, lose one stake but obv keep the other? Am not so sure about that, oh and vc's offer is of a free bet to the same stake, i think their rule that saying that concession can only be used in backing one horse per event per race see's to that. And even if it dont your stake is not returned with any returns is it. 6/1 far better
|
|
By:
OK I see your point re VC offer - personally if I was that confident on the horse I would back him at best odds for the race I thought he was most likely to go for and then cover with VC.
Alternatively back him with VC for the Neptune as his entry for trials day seems to indicate where they likely see him going. If he fails to stay or is unimpressive in that race, are his odds really likely to shorten for the Supreme? |
|
By:
some bookies out there will give you approx 3/4 the odds available (with a run) and surely this is better value to backing a horse to win any race.
|
|
By:
was very impressive at Ascot, I know the trainer wants to see hi over further but feel that the decision over the festival could be affected by the ground a lot nearer the time. You might be best waiting for ladbrokes to go NRNB as they will almost certainly be better value than VC.
|
|
By:
Don't Laddies just go NRNB on the championship races at this stage?
|