Dynaste CANNOT win the RSA Chase

totally agree cv

with your last post

I agree with that also CVB. However bizarrely I also agree with budd in that this year I'm not sure that there is a good enough horse to stretch Dynaste enough in RSA.

As I said wouldn't back him at the price, but wouldn't lay him either

also think that dynaste will win rsa by default tho always stated i think the horses best trip is 2.4m

Crazy as this may sound to some, but MTOY and Dynaste are big lays at their likely sp's. Simply too short and overbet.

Anyway back to Dynaste, he's a lovely horse but Pipe needs to forget about the bloody RSA, nobody gives a monkeys if you've won an RSA. Bostons Angel is going in the cross country 2 years after winning one. Take it easy on him this season, Then Paddy Power - King George - Gold Cup / Ryanair.

Nicholls seems to hate the RSA now. Loves skipping it with horses n favour of next season.

I'm really shocked that some people on here think a 3 mile hurdle race can foretell whether a horse will stay a 3 mile chase race. Some horses will never be at their optimum until they jump the larger obstacles. In the case of Dynaste the Pipe team have always seen him as a top class chaser and were planning to switch him to novice chasing right after his Haydock win but then changed plans and targeted a BB clash instead. The jury is still out as to whether he will stay the 3 mile RSA but i certainly wouldn't use the WH as a guide. glta.

lets face it,if you judged every horse by its runs against big Bucks then none of them stay!!

I would rather judge a horse on its ability to stay 3m over fences,on its form over fences at 3m.
Dynaste has had one run over fences at 3m,and proved he stayed that day.
That to me is far more conclusive than a couple of hurdle runs trying to beat probably the best staying hurdler ever.

As for what race,thats a different argument,and i can certainly see the case behind running in the Jewson and CV puts it over very well.
But that race looks trickier to me,theres a couple i fancy strongly.
The RSA on the other hand looks p1ss easy to me,and if Dynaste cant beat that lot,hes nowhere the horse i think he is or certainly can be.

there has been some pocket talking on here..as a boston bob backer i think dynaste should go for the RSA...so it gives his team a better picture for the future...as id rather find out if a horse is a strong stayer now in order to make things clearer for next season. He looked as if could have went around again at kempton.

One point overlooked. There were TWO fences omitted in the Feltham. Throw in a moderate early pace and we can see speed won the day, not stamina. Fully agree with CVB here. Dynaste has a stamina doubt against him.

Long Run beat Captain Chris by 16+ L in 2011 yet only managed to win by considerably less this time round because there were two less fences to jump that would've ebbed ever further into a horse's stamina reserves. Those two fences that didn't have to be jumped helped Captain Chris "stay" the 3miles better then he did the previous year. It was only the strong early pace and subsequent desperate finish that has people believing Cue Card, Champion Court, Grands Crus and Captain Chris can stay 3m with no problems.

Neither a backer or layer of Dynaste but fully agree with Roobuck. Problem is no other rival has thrown down a convincing claim to win the race.

lets face it,if you judged every horse by its runs against big Bucks then none of them stay!!

Sorry Bud but this is absolute nonsense, horses who galloped with Big Bucks to the end but beaten by better horse are not called non stayers. Dynaste emptied totally twice against Big Bucks, first when he tried to make running over 3m1f ascot. Then emptied in fierce run World Hurdle.

There is enough there to question if he is a proper stayer. Compare that World Hurdle which was 2s quicker than Albertt Bartlett. Boston Bob stays on bitterly to the end for a good way back.

Visually you see 2 different things from a horse over 3m in a similar pace race over same c&d. One empties, one stays on.

cause and effect, I believe Captain Chris benefitted with staying well away from the battles up front. Long Run and Champ Court took eachother on and the latter cracked, Long Run then idles, CC comes to challenge and jumps the last much better. Long Run then pick up and stays on to win.

I thing Long Run is the most dour stayer I'll ever see in my life. We'll never ever see the bottom of him. He just lacks any gears and need a ferocious end to end gallop to be seen at his best. Look at the 2011 King George, Kauto went like the clappers down the back and only won because his jumped is pure magic. Long Run galloped on relentlessy but the line came for Kauto. It was a demonstration of pure genius riding by Ruby Walsh. His best ever ride imv.

Long Run suffered terribly by Kauto pulling up in Gold Cup, the pace plummeted at end of the first circuit when he'd pulled up, from top of hill to the stands was 6s slower than 2011 race. But the race up until then and on the final circuit were run in indentical times. This gave a huge mid race breather for the filed and resulted in the bunch finish sprint at the end.

Long Run, is a seriously talented stayer. If he gets his jumping right and a fierce gallop in Gold Cup he's a huge danger.

Bit of a tangent there.

Agree with you there on LR. POint was I was trying to make was I thought Dynaste's Feltham was more of a speed test on account of the race made easier by having two fences omitted AND a moderate early pace that saw the field well bunched for the majority of the race.

the KG pace was ferocious and relentless and I thought that was the first time I ever saw LR idle. The way he came back showed he had plenty in the tank hence the conclusion that the two fences omitted made the races easier and in LR's case, not so much of a test. GL! Always good to hear your views.

Yep agree with your views on those races.

Does the fact that the feltham was run 3's quicker than the king George hinder that argument though? Appreciate LR was carrying 3lbs more weight

I've just watched the Cleeve and World Hurdle back from last year and feel there are a number of notable points to be made regarding Dynaste and his ability to see out 3M in a proper test:

1. The Cleeve was run at a far, far slower pace than the World Hurdle. The Cleeve was 13.5 seconds slower and this for me played into the hands of Dynaste and not Big Buck's, hence the reason why Dynaste was able to get so close and look such a good stayer. He has absolutely on his legs two out in the World Hurdle yet people were saying OW wasn't a stayer, who put in a far superior performance.

2. Dynaste has a very high knee action. If we get soft ground he might get away with it but IF it comes up good, he wont act as well and this of course dramatically affects his chances.

3. The key reason for people saying he will bust the stats this year is lack of credible opposition, and it's hard to disagree. We don't appear to have anything of Bob's Worth's class BUT Ruby knows how to beat Dynaste. Boston Bob will stay all day and as long as we get a decent pace, he will kick a long way from home, just as he did with Big Buck's in the World Hurdle. He may not be as good as was thought, but the JP Moriarty has shown how he needs to be ridden and they will make the most of him. I also genuinely believe Boston Bob will be better on good ground.

I love these debates and everyone's entitled to their opinion. For me if it's soft and the race is allowed to go at a crawl, Dynaste may be near impossible to beat. However, if we get goodish ground and a proper champion pace, I think the white flag will be raised turning for home

I've just watched the Cleeve and World Hurdle back from last year and feel there are a number of notable points to be made regarding Dynaste and his ability to see out 3M in a proper test:

1. The Cleeve was run at a far, far slower pace than the World Hurdle. The Cleeve was 13.5 seconds slower and this for me played into the hands of Dynaste and not Big Buck's, hence the reason why Dynaste was able to get so close and look such a good stayer. He has absolutely on his legs two out in the World Hurdle yet people were saying OW wasn't a stayer, who put in a far superior performance.

2. Dynaste has a very high knee action. If we get soft ground he might get away with it but IF it comes up good, he wont act as well and this of course dramatically affects his chances.

3. The key reason for people saying he will bust the stats this year is lack of credible opposition, and it's hard to disagree. We don't appear to have anything of Bob's Worth's class BUT Ruby knows how to beat Dynaste. Boston Bob will stay all day and as long as we get a decent pace, he will kick a long way from home, just as he did with Big Buck's in the World Hurdle. He may not be as good as was thought, but the JP Moriarty has shown how he needs to be ridden and they will make the most of him. I also genuinely believe Boston Bob will be better on good ground.

I love these debates and everyone's entitled to their opinion. For me if it's soft and the race is allowed to go at a crawl, Dynaste may be near impossible to beat. However, if we get goodish ground and a proper champion pace, I think the white flag will be raised turning for home

will  RW even be on BB??

I think he will. Rocky Creek, who has a tremendous profile for this race, doesn't look like he's turning up and I genuinely believe that the last performance could be the best thing that has happened for BB.

Watch last years RSA back - both BW and FL were right at the front a long, long way from home. Ruby will do the same with BB - he'll make a lot of use of him and have him right there as they now realise he probably doesn't have the raw pace they felt before. No better tactical rider at Cheltenham that Ruby either.

My biggest fear with BB is how long it will take for him to move up through the gears but as long as Ruby gets the pace right, that should be OK.

Know he could end up on Unioniste but i'd be surprised.

Know he could end up on Unioniste but i'd be surprised.

it wouldnt suprise me one bit

Does the fact that the feltham was run 3's quicker than the king George hinder that argument though? Appreciate LR was carrying 3lbs more weight

Not really as the early pace was much more searching that demands more from every horse from the very start. Out of 16 fences, Long Run's race was SEVEN seconds quicker in the early stage through to the 13th fence with Long Run's relentless nature not allowing any breathers into his rivals causing the race pace to collapse. In any case, Long Run clearly idled and could've run faster if needed. With 3 to jump, Dynaste's race developed into something of a sprint to home and the early steady pace allowed the Feltham horses to simply jump in relative comfort giving Dynaste plenty left.

Given Dynaste jumped 16 fences on his first two chasing starts, the only difference is the longer distances between fences and that favours speed as jumping fences will surely ebb more at a horse's stamina reserves then given a breather before another fence.

Maybe. I've just watched back Unioniste's two runs this year and BB's last race.

At the time I was in shock that BB almost lost but it turns into a sprint for home turning the home bend which has one fence and can only be a few furlongs. I've never been more convinced that a fast pace, hill and extra 3F will suit BB.

If it's allowed to turn into a sprint finish then Dynaste will win doing handstands. Logic tells you that it wont though

That wasn't a response to you by the way cause and effect!

Cheers for your opinion though

if you are right the current 8.6 BB would seem generous, no?

I'm on at 8.2 from October and also have a 35/1 HF & BB double so won't be going in again just yet. TBF, what happens with HF will determine if or how much i go in on him again on the day.

Stats wise I'm a tad concerned about only 2 races pre festival which has tamed my conviction but having watched his last race back, I think I'll get over that.

Will lay dynaste at the time but what else I'll do is up in the air due to bets down already

I am gonna have to go in at this price. Very little else is suggesting itself to me. Something in my unconscious putting me off Unioniste (Dom Alco???) and after that... RC unlikely runner.

Can envisage BB coming up the hill

I do like Dom Alco's, just not at 5 in the 3m RSA.  If BB turns up he's an EW banker but then would assume his price will be more 9/2 than 15/2.

Bill Shankly would probably say that the RSA does not suit the Drury Lane dancers especially if there is proper pace in the race. Perhaps WM will have another runner in the race also.

lets face it,if you judged every horse by its runs against big Bucks then none of them stay

That was a bit tongue in cheek CV,though i think you know what i meant.
For me its all about his chase form,and he HAS stayed 3m.
Yes its possible he may struggle a tad to get it at Cheltenham if they try to get into his stamina,but whats good enough to do that??

I just cannot see anything in the race that looks anywhere near good enough to give him a race,and those that try and take him through the limit will pay the price imo.
Boston Bob is probably the most likely decent opposition and watching him is like watching paint dry,sorry,but imo hes as slow as they come.Maybe the ground will make a difference to him,who knows,but hes looked to me pretty average at best this season.
Dynaste imo will laugh at him.

bud that's the thing with the RSA, forget who looks good in trials, look at the RSA profile. What horse most looks like an RSA winner, not who looks like the best horse. Dynaste looks a far better horse than this lot. But Grands Crus looked a better stayer over hurdles, he beat 2 of the favourites for Gold Cup at Kempton, he ran his only good race this year in the King George too.

Kempton is Kempton, 3m round there is not 3m round Cheltenham. They go a fierce gallop at Cheltenham and the race is littered with stayers. You simply want to back the best stayer. Nothing else.

So you need to forget this best horse mentality. Go with the best RSA profile horse.

the fact he is only 5 does not bother me, he is and will continue to improove, of the rsa principles he has won the most competitive race this season granted off a low weight ( handicapper got it all wrong) but i don,t think the extra weight would have stoped him, while dynaste has dictated in small fields, boston bob took a whole half mile to change gear???? people will say unioniste has 8 lenghts to make up on dynaste, yes over 21f but the rsa is 24 and a half furlongs and i believe this will blunt dynastes speed, and i havnt mentioned all the stats dynaste has to overcome, forget the feltham the biggest stat to overcome is the not run in this calender year, to come and win this race with no prep run is a massive negative imho

The no prep run is the main reason why i dislike him as well

buddeliea 18 Feb 13 19:28
well its all about Big Bucks imo.
Take him out of that cleeve run for example,Dynaste wins the race beating Mourad 10 lenghts,with other stayers further back.

Take Big Buck's out of the World Hurdle from 2009-2011 and you have World Hurdle winners of Punchestowns, Time For Rupert and Grands Crus. Wouldn't have made a blind bit of difference come their RSA Chases the following year when they went off short priced favourites and finished 5th, 5th and 4th respectively. Did they stay in the World Hurdle? Apparently so. Were they RSA Chase winners in waiting? Apparently not.

Perhaps those examples who were better hurdlers imo simply didn't cut it as chasers. Perhaps, just perhaps, Dynaste as not such a good hurdler will.

As I say I will find it amusing if he wins though I won't have a bean on him in RSA

"I am gonna have to go in at this price. Very little else is suggesting itself to me. Something in my unconscious putting me off Unioniste (Dom Alco???) and after that... RC unlikely runner."





Something in your unconscious was putting you off a horse because it's out of one the best NH sires ?   

They did cut it as chasers though, that's the point, going into the RSA just as seemingly bulletproof as Dynaste before flopping:
Punchestowns 2 from 2 over fences and 2/1f on the day
Time For Rupert 2 from 2 over fences and 7/4f on the day
Grands Crus 3 from 3 over fences and 6/5f on the day

All had hacked up on all their chase starts prior to the RSA and appeared no less obvious winners of the RSA than Dynaste.

Agree with your final point though - admittedly I will look a right tit should he now win!

Roger, have their subsequent efforts over fences not proved that they were not top class chasers?

Its not just you roger, its in fact the 'biblical lay' comments etc that make me smile. I'm not really a stats/trends man and even if Dynaste does win I accept if doesn't change the overall profile of the winner.

Its just that I struggle to see a top class staying chaser in the field to beat him

I don't think many people thought Bostons angel would beat TFR but he did. Not top class by any stretch but perfect for the RSA and was top stats pick for the race

TFR had a issue that meant he missed his prep. That issue in fact turned out to affect his whole career I would suggest, so including him in my previous post is perhaps unfair

A lack of prep beat Time for Rupert. Now, that doesn't mean to say that he merely lost because he didn't have a run after December, but not having a run beforehand can sometimes indicate problems with the horse, which you might not hear about. No way was Bostons Angel 5L better than Rupert, so there was something amiss, which proved to be the case as he was never travelling.

Dynaste also falling into that category with no prep too though.

Agree with Roobuck a little on there being no really obvious candidate to beat Dynaste - when I started this thread I did think by now there would be 3-4 contenders that I would expect to give him a tough time, and it appears a fairly weak division this year. However, on RSA morning not many would have had Knockara Beau over Punchestowns, Bostons Angel and Magnanimity over Time For Rupert or Call The Police over Grands Crus. Convinced something non-obvious will come out of the woodwork and run a bigger race than Dynaste on the day, as has happened on those other occasions.

For the record, I am on Boston Bob. Backed him the day before he ran in the Moriarty hoping he would win well and shorten in price. Was disappointed with the run. Could easily have finished 4th. However, can see him staying on well and if it becomes a dogfight, which the RSA often does, he is one to keep on the right side of. My concern with him is that he could get outpaced when they up the tempo and his staying on at the end may only bring him a place. If he can hang on to the leaders when they go for home I am still semi-confident that he can do it.

fascinating discussions you guys!

Roger,i think you are right that BB wil stay on for a place,its an awful renewal imo.
Dynaste i expect to have finished the race and had a cigar by the time BB finishes.

Still IF he dont stay then he may well get picked up by something.
As CV says,the RSA is often won by those types,and i do recognise that.
Ive backed against all the favs last few years,and apart from last year its worked out well for me,but i honestly cannot see a horse enabling me to do that this year.
I aint had a bet(well i did back Harry Topper)and its looking likely i wont,but if he does run in the race and i have a good Tuesday i may back Dynaste if i think the price is worth it.

this thread is almost identical as last year's Arkle, 9 out of 10 posters were adamant that Sprinter Sacre would not get up the hill, class told in the end, that could be the case with Dynaste. cheers.

Isn't anything like last year's Arkle. Sprinter Sacre was very strong on trends for that race with everything in his favour, Dynaste is incredibly weak on stats.

indeed

and the people who thought SS vwould get beat were by far in the minority. They just posted on and on about it.

Rog. I said" almost identical" cheers.

Dynaste appears from the mist at David Pipe's stable this morning. Festival race still undecided

but it is nothing like it at all

cheers

this thread is almost identical as last year's Arkle, 9 out of 10 posters were adamant that Sprinter Sacre would not get up the hill, class told in the end, that could be the case with Dynaste. cheers

i think he,ll bolt up the hill in the jewson just not in the rsa.... taa

you can keep saying it is like Sprinter thread as much as you want

it simply isn't

and that thread started with the OP tipping the horse to win at 7/1 not saying it cannot win

and it was at least 50:50 for and against, frankly it was only Budd who was really adamant, most others had doubts that grew stronger as the price shortened. No one who was on at say 9/4 to the initial 7/1 had much worry

but you carry on

Did say earlier that RSA would be no bet race for me if Dynaste shows which isn't strictly true as had a small play on Aupcharlie prior to Xmas run.

Also I still do like Hadrian's Approach and will likely do him e/w in the w/o Dynaste market

maelduin
18 Feb 13 20:15

I'm really shocked that some people on here think a 3 mile hurdle race can foretell whether a horse will stay a 3 mile chase race


easily shocked

Pipe seems to have a horse for 4 miler and Goulanes for RSA. Hmmm got an inkling he will send Dynaste for Jewson

could be right there my friend

O my pocket does hope that is the case !!!!

and mine

Me also. Had a little bit of 8s a few days ago and gone in again at 7s. Very much see the race between him and Aupcharlie and have done for a while. Brain a little frazzled, not sure why I didn't make the play earlier.

If he goes RSA however, would still rate him as far by most the likely winner

according to most on this thread, Dynaste will not stay 3 miles 1 furlong. cheers.

according to the statsman in the Racing Post, Boston Bob has no chance, so, time to pick a big one. cheers.

Anyone heard any news about Boston Bob and Back In Focus?

BB has drifted to 25 for the NH chase on here but not shortened for the RSA

BIF has drifted for the RSA


just usual jitters or what?

I don't know how much lower BB he can go while Dynaste leads the RSA market Judo even if he's a confirmed runner.

Well BB is best priced 5/1 if you go NRNB and is 8.4 on here so there is clearly scope for him to shorten up. I was more interested in the drift for the NH Chase which would normally indicate he will miss that race. Is that real or just silly beggars?

BB aint gonna go for the NH Chase man and never has been...he's always been around 25s.

BIF is too slow for the RSA and needs a boat race

It's clear BiF will go for NH chase and Bob for RSA unless there is injury to some other Mullins runners.

Can't watch the morning line these days but apparently Graham Cunningham thinks Ruby very sweet on Unioniste? POtential for a twist here. Mullins talking about easy options a couple of weeks ago suggest Ruby may well be a big factor given he has no obvious Jewson ride as AUpcharlie likely to be ridden by Lynch. Perhaps reading too much between the lines but not the first time there's a question mark about Boston Bob given Wylie's comments previously on BB's entry in Irish Arkle suggesting he had plenty of speed! Will be very interesting to see how this plays out!

Dynaste CANNOT win the RSA chase particularly if it run's in the Jewson. Judging by the betting it looks quite likely. All that discussion...................

Out?

yes

Graeme83
30 Jan 13 14:43
Joined:
21 Sep 07
| Topic/replies: 7,893 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
Fair enough Roger. I don't think Dynaste will win the RSA, for the same reasons i don't think Millhouse, Black Beauty or Warhorse will win it. Non participation.

whos a clever boy then  yawnnnnnn

Nothing about this anywhere, RP, Sporting Life, Twitter. Howdi, you may be right in the end but at the moment you appear to just be guessing from the vibes.

Brave call Howdi.

The Times this AM.

David Pipe would not confirm as much but it seems increasingly likely that Dynaste, long-time ante-post favourite for the RSA Chase, will miss Wednesday’s race and instead run in the Jewson Chase 24 hours later.
Pipe opened the door for the switch yesterday by revealing that Goulanes, a thorough stayer who won on his chasing bow at Wetherby last month, would run in the RSA instead of the National Hunt Chase, for which he had been as short as 8-1.
“Goulanes is going for the RSA. Roger Brookhouse [his owner] was keen to go for it so that’s what we’re doing,” Pipe said. “We haven’t made any decision on Dynaste. He’ll be confirmed for both races and we’ll make a decision which way we’re going over the weekend.”
Pipe was numbed by the defeat of Grands Crus in the RSA last year.
Sent off the 6-5 favourite, having been flawless in his previous three races over fences, he could finish only a weary fourth. Dynaste, another striking grey, has a similar profile.

i think we all know it might be switched to the jewson ,but some twats cant wait for news from the stable before shouting there big mouths off,childish and no help to anyone

Is Super Duty really going to run in the Kim Muir opposed to the RSA Chase do you think?

Pretty sure he is. Derek O'Connor announced that he has been booked for the ride on Super Duty in the Kim Muir.

Yeah but things change...McCain does have previous. If Dynaste goes Jewson he'd have to give it serious thought in all honesty.

I cannot understand why they are all afraid of Dynaste considering Dynaste connections appear to be afraid of the RSA anyway. No logic.

I've made a bit of a rick here, lapse of concentration not noticing Super Duty was fav for the Kim Muir. I suppose thinking he had a very lively chance in the RSA why would he be entered into a handicap.

theatrical star could win this,he is agreat jumper and wasnt stopping at exeter,where you have to stay

Xmas cancelled for the trends boys

Why? Disappointing not to find out for certain what would have happened if Dynaste had lined up, but by discounting Dynaste from day 1 and looking for viable alternatives I have 7s about a 3/1 shot (Boston Bob). Maybe Pipe read the thread!

Roger you got there in the end - well done - the route is neither here nor there. If the Pipes believed Dynaste could win the RSA he would be running in it.

I'm another smugly happy stats boy. 8s BB and 10s unioniste.

Unioniste certainly is not a stats horse

Dynasty was though!!!

C'mon you.....

Well done Roger spot on, shouldn't that basically be the end of the thread as the original post was 100% correct and it's basically job done

Where does unioniste fall down on stats? Just because it's 5? Star de mohaison was 5. Trained by PN. It fits on number of runs, days from LTO, a defeat over fences, didn't win the feltham or reynoldstown, etc....

The 5yr old allowance used to be 10lbs when Mohaison won. I think it's now 1-2lb. Not necessarily a stat but virtually no help for the younger brigade now.

if your good enough your old enough...

Would not back Captain Conan with stolen after watching that last performance.

oops,wrong thread

Arklearkle 10 Mar 13 18:40
Roger you got there in the end - well done - the route is neither here nor there. If the Pipes believed Dynaste could win the RSA he would be running in it.

Absolutely. No-one opts out of a Grade 1 in favour of a Grade 2 if they think they can win it. Pipe was aware that Dynaste had a lot more to do than the bookmakers would have you believe in the RSA. I would still have liked to have proved it though.

Still think he WOULD have won the RSA, however he will win the Jewson.  Time to look forward not back.

LOL at the trends boys claiming a victory here....switch of races f*ck all to do with it having run 2 seasons over hurdles or having won Feltham....dodged a massive bullet in all likelihood but true that you're better to be born lucky than shrewd

Dynaste will run in the Jewson Novices’ Chase rather the RSA Chase because of the prospect of testing ground.

Connections of the David Pipe-trained grey feel the shorter distance of the Jewson is the better option due to the change in the conditions.
“Touch wood he’s the best horse in either race. We thought that on the ground the RSA could be a real slog, so we’ve leant towards the Jewson,” said Pipe.
Dynaste has won all his three races over fences between two and a half and three miles and has been ante-post favourite for both races.

tops 7/4 for the Jewson. Any RSA backers tempted by that or the concern of a long lay-off still leave you sweating under the eyeballs?

wd Roger btw, lets hope Boston Bob sticks it too 'em.

Fed up seeing this thread. Can bf PLEASE take it down now.
Nothing to do with my 14s losing AP