Forums

Cheltenham Festival

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Roger The Butler
19 Nov 12 16:27
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 3,511 | Blogger: Roger The Butler's blog
Absolutely, unequivocably cannot win the RSA Chase. Doesn't matter if it hacks up all season long, come the day he will not win so find the value elsewhere.

Horses that have a second season hurdling before going chasing do not have a hope in this race despite what cv they come into it with. An RSA Chase winner has an educational season over hurdles then cracks on with his job over fences which presumably has always been the plan. Horses that are deemed good enough over hurdles to have a go at some good hurdling prizes the next season and then go chasing the next season have already missed the boat.

Last three favourites for the RSA Chase all had that fatal 2nd season hurdling following Big Buck's around rior to flopping in the RSA Chase despite looking like good chase prospects earlier in the season:
2012 - Grands Crus - 6/5f (4th)
2011 - Time For Rupert - 7/4f (5th)
2010 - Punchestowns - 2/1f (5th)

Whilst they were fluffing their lines and coming up with all sorts of excuses, last season's novice hurdles were dominating. In fact, at least the last 20 renewals have gone to horses that were novice hurdlers the previous year (apart from two who didn't even bother with one season hurdling).

You can keep bringing this thread up every time he wins this season and shortens for the Festival - he looked great on Friday and I'm sure will win plenty of races - but come the day he will fail like the rest with his profile.

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 9  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 9 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 329
By:
Masterminded
When: 19 Nov 12 18:54
Very interesting thread Roger and I would tend to agree. I was very impressed with Dynaste but he doesn't look like an RSA horse to me. I think the other less experienced horses a la Fingal Bay will improve past him.
By:
roobuck
When: 19 Nov 12 19:02
That is very interesting. Even if Dynaste was now chasing after a single season of hurdling, he looks ready made for the Jewson to me, not the RSA distance. Pipes need to learn from the GC experience
By:
Busvaldo
When: 19 Nov 12 19:06
I am sure his old man will point him in the right direction...
By:
buddeliea
When: 19 Nov 12 19:07
Out the 2 i would favour Dynaste,just dont rate Fingal Bay to be honest.
Think Dynaste will have a good season,jumps really well.Whether that leads to victory in March remains to be seen,but from what ive seen so far,i would say he will be a big threat in whatever race he ends up in,is early days though.
By:
tomdeane
When: 19 Nov 12 21:19
Roger, I'm guessing your post is being a little tongue-in-cheek, and that you are playing devil's advocate.

I don't think Dynaste looks an RSA type. I think he has too much speed and a really gruelling three miles will be against him, but the fact that he spent an extra season hurdling has nothing to do with it. There is absolutely no reason why a horse can't spend two years over timber and then win this.
By:
Tory
When: 19 Nov 12 21:41
His wording is incorrect as to day a horse cannot win is slightly over egging it. However, the RSA is massive stats race and the hurdling one is crucial. Key reason I was against Grands Crus last year. Was also a factor why I was against TFR the year before.

He could of course win but I would never back Dynaste with that stat against him.
By:
tomdeane
When: 19 Nov 12 21:49
It stands to reason, I'll give trends followers that, as you would assume real chasing types go over fences after just a single season of hurdling, but I wonder how many really good horses have been beaten after spending time over timber?

Although the Punchestowns, Time For Rupert and Grands Crus defeats seem to underline this with dark ink, it's actually only about 3-1 that none of those should have won. Add in the fact that many/most believe there were perfectly legitimate excuses (at least for some of them), and it's not that much of a surprise.

It defies logic to avoid Dynaste based on his hurdling exploits when he has taken to fences really well (he jumped beautifully the other day). As I said above, I personally think he might not want to go as far a three miles and I fancy a couple of others more as a result. But in now ay am I put off him because he spent two seasons over timber. It's not as if he's old either...
By:
flushgordon1
When: 19 Nov 12 23:06
stats are there to be broken ,jumped well on small field novice on slow ground,
has run 4 times at cheltenham 3 good runs one not so good in the world hurdle.
its worst form appears to be its 2 runs on good ground,
come march on faster ground in a better field i would take it on ,on softer i would not rush to,
if i could own any horse in the race i would like to have the four year old any day of te week.
By:
duffy
When: 19 Nov 12 23:07
apart from cooldine in recent years, the rsa invariably won by a grinding performance, and much like grands crus, you get that niggling gut feeling about what would happen when he has to roll is sleeves up...he's just to flashyGrin
By:
Roger The Butler
When: 20 Nov 12 09:19
Tom, it's not just that they didn't win, none of them even got placed even though all of them were quite hot favourites. That's pretty damning. Dynaste will follow suit.

Flush, the fact that he has run good races at Cheltenham gives him no more of an advantage than Time For Rupert (3 wins and 2 seconds from 5 at Cheltenham prior to the RSA), Punchestowns (1 win, 2 seconds and a third from 4 at Cheltenham prior to the RSA) and Grands Crus (3 wins and a second from 4 at Cheltenham prior to the RSA). All loved the course, all were the top rated hurdler, all had the kiss of death 2nd season hurdling, all failed to even be placed. Back Dynaste at your peril!
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Nov 12 14:22
This race is all over bar the shouting anyway. Boston Bob Baby.
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Nov 12 15:03
Look forward to seeing the strength of your conviction sint. Devil
By:
sageform
When: 20 Nov 12 17:03
I see where you are coming from but most of these losing runs are broken eventually. McCoy in the National, Nicholls in the National and the Paddy Power, etc. I would not dream of assessing the RSA until all of the likely contenders have run at least once more and preferably twice.
By:
CheltenhamRoar
When: 20 Nov 12 17:51
Boston Bob is gonna be a beast over fences!
Cant wait to see him jump a fence
By:
tomdeane
When: 20 Nov 12 18:35
The thing is Roger, most people think all three of those hoptots had excuses. We know that Time For Rupert bled (he actually ran a seriously brave race in the circumstances), whereas Punchestowns and Grands Crus looked to be ailing in some way.
By:
sageform
When: 20 Nov 12 18:41
Punchestowns never showed form over fences to suggest he should have won. History is littered with top class hurdlers that never reached the same level over fences. I don't see that the number of seasons hurdling is the issue, surely the number of races is more relevant.
By:
sageform
When: 20 Nov 12 18:41
Punchestowns never showed form over fences to suggest he should have won. History is littered with top class hurdlers that never reached the same level over fences. I don't see that the number of seasons hurdling is the issue, surely the number of races is more relevant.
By:
duffy
When: 20 Nov 12 18:47
punchestowns suffered a setback about week before the race didn't he?
By:
tomdeane
When: 20 Nov 12 18:53
Yes he did, and he has obviously had lots of problems since, hence him not being seen over hurdles or fences more than a couple of times.
By:
sintonian
When: 20 Nov 12 19:50
You will Roo once he is declared to run in the next few days. Mullins has him entered in 3 chases from 2m1f to 20f.
By:
roobuck
When: 20 Nov 12 20:05
GrinLove Don't you think there's a chance they might point him down the Jewson route?

I too love the horse it's just I think part of the reason for sending SDC that way was to protect a horse they really rate from the rigours of the RSA. Could well be very wrong, who knows with Mullins!
By:
sageform
When: 21 Nov 12 08:40
The RSA has always been a very tough test for young chasers. I used to know Bob Turnell and John Haine very well and they won it with Buona Notte who was one of only a handful of horses that beat Arkle. They always regretted running him in the RSA as he was never quite as good again and died on course of a heart attack.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 21 Nov 12 09:01
Me thinks "young" Pipe might have learned a lesson from Grands Crus and me reckons "old" Pipe will be helping him with his thinking if he hasn't. I am placing my hard earned money on him learning this lesson and getting on Dynaste for the Jewson. The joys of AP !!

For what its worth in the RSA I like Boston Bob, Broadbackbob and Ambion Wood. Not very original I suspect. Am avoiding Fingal Bay in all Festival races coz got in my mind he is a bit soft. Might be proved wrong but its all about opinions and what we see with our own eyes.
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Nov 12 12:54
I think that was more to do with the Owners having First Lieutenant more than anything else tbh Roo. Mullins has won the RSA 3 times if memory serves correctly.
By:
roobuck
When: 21 Nov 12 13:12
Maybe sint, but his last winner was Cooldine and he has never the looked the horse that won it since.

Owners also have Back in Focus, he needs at least 3 miles.

Good luck if you play
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 21 Nov 12 14:40
Broadbackbob hasn't shortened much in the betting and I missed his chasing debut, did he look a natural?
By:
Masterminded
When: 21 Nov 12 14:52
Thought he did it easily enough if a bit high over a couple. My concern would be whether he really wants a test over 3 miles like the RSA. He beat Cinders and Ashes last season and has plenty of pace.
By:
sageform
When: 21 Nov 12 19:59
Broadbackbob was OK at Plumpton but beat absolutely nothing. His defeat of Ciders at Ascot is not reliable as Cinders was badly impeded at halfway and was 20 lengths down at one stage. However that was a strong race with Double Ross back in fifth-he won easily at Cheltenham on Sunday. The more I see of the Supreme novice form, the more convinced I am that Cinders will win the CH.
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 21 Nov 12 20:22
i also think dynaste will be better in jewsons
By:
judorick
When: 21 Nov 12 20:36
I like the thinking

if he wins the Feltham that will be a major negative as the last 18 winners of that race to run in the RSA have all been beaten
By:
Masterminded
When: 21 Nov 12 20:56
You can't really call it unreliable. Cinders may have been a little unlucky but he was in front at one stage and just beat by the better horse on the day.
By:
sageform
When: 22 Nov 12 21:14
Masterminded, I have rerun the Ascot race a couple of times and Jason seemed to accept that he was out of contention after the mistake/interference and stopped riding for 2 furlongs. He then realised how well the horse was travelling and probably made his ground too quickly before tiring from the last. Without the mistake do you really think Broadbackbob would have beaten him? If you do then BBB should have won the Supreme novice if he had run there.
By:
Masterminded
When: 22 Nov 12 21:29
I think the likelihood is that Cinders improved a lot and tbf of the little we saw of him BBB did also. Like I said he was a little unlucky but he got back into the race with plenty of time. I'm not doubting Cinders ability in anyway just pointing out the Henderson horse is no mug and has a bit of pace about him. He was quite well fancied for the Neptune until he got injured.
By:
sageform
When: 23 Nov 12 09:00
I agree with all of that. Double Ross and others have franked the form of the race. We are not really far apart. My main point of replying in the first place was to report on BBB's first chase which was perfectly adequate but gave no evidence of his ability relative to Dynaste, Fingal Bay et al.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 26 Nov 12 00:22
this is another of those 'killer stats' that will be in tatters soon enough.....also dont really get all the comparisons to Grands Crus...so they are both grey and have the same trainer...doesnt make them clones
By:
judorick
When: 26 Nov 12 00:35
which stat Duncan?
By:
duncan idaho
When: 26 Nov 12 10:01
at least the last 20 renewals have gone to horses that were novice hurdlers the previous year (apart from two who didn't even bother with one season hurdling).
By:
Roger The Butler
When: 26 Nov 12 10:15
Don't know why it should be in tatters soon enough. If you have a top class chase prospect, you get it chasing. I think this stat will run and run.
By:
judorick
When: 26 Nov 12 10:57
ah yes I see

well the argument goes on every year about stats and trends doesn't it? For me the use of trends is about longer term profitability so even if the 20+ year streak were to be snapped I would need some convincing that I should not still apply the trend in the following season. It's a bit like the 5yo in the Champion Hurdle trend where it has proved nigh on impossible for them to win the race with only dear old Katchit winning as a 5yo in over 30 years I think

As it stands I don't have any financial involvement in the race but I will be heavily against Dynaste for the RSA if he wins the Feltham as he will have to snap two long term trends and that will make him an appealing lay if the market makes him short like it did with Grands Crus.
Page 1 of 9  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 9 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com