Albertas Run

paul nolan said the other day noble prince's jockey arrangements won't be made until nearer the time, as AP is most likely to be on alberta's run, so jonjo must've said at some point all was ok and that was the target?

I believe he is on target, read something somewhere a few weeks back...

I want 4.

Just to remind punters of the stats on 11 year olds

In the last 10 Festivals 202 11 year olds have run producing two winners

RF,Trainer said the other day he was pleased with him,hopefully he will turn up fit and raring to go.
Ruby Walsh had a good word for him on RUK preview on Monday,said he would not be surprised if he outbattled them all.
Nor would i mate.

Come on the Run!

All neutrals should want Kauto, Big Bucks and Albertas to win.

I've had a fiver @ 14's and you know you'll get your moneys worth from him.

He'll get his good round, regular pilot and when he see's that hill it will be like Popeye eating his spinnage!!

Hmm that's interesting. I might have a small each-way bet, the Ryanair looks very open to me.

Jonjo O'Neill reports Albertas Run to be "bang on target" for a hat-trick bid in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham.

Trevor Hemmings' gelding hasn't been out since winning the Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase at Aintree in October but the trainer is pleased with his progress.

"He won at Liverpool and then got a bit of a suspensory problem and has been off ever since. It's been a long slow programme but everything has gone according to plan and he's bang on target. Hopefully I can just get him there on the day now," he told sportinglife.com.

"Preparations are going very well, he's in great form and did a lovely piece of work last week and we're very happy with him. Obviously he's a year older which makes it a bit tougher but he's been there and done it before and whatever beats him will know they've had a race."

Albertas Run has landed the last two renewals of the Ryanair Chase and the trainer feels a combination of factors make the race perfect for him.

"It just seems to be the right trip for him, AP (McCoy) gets on really well with him and the horse loves Cheltenham and this time of year. As long as he keeps doing that I'm very happy," he added.

If the ground is 'Good' or better - punt!

I am aware he is getting on a bit jud, but having won on him at the festival at 9/2, 33/1, and 10/1 I am not really feeling that desertion is a plan...

fine then bet away, I won't be betting any 11 and 12 year olds

In the last 10 years 288 of those have run and produced 5 winners - not attractive to me

How many of them were lightly raced, 2 time fevival winning spring horses though?

*3 time festival winning spring horses

Thats the spirit BTW,horse owes us loyal backers absolutely nothing.
Hes had one run early on this season,and will come into the race nice and fresh,and i suspect fit enough to perform as he can.
Dont worry about his age,just another boring stat that KEEPS getting mentioned,AR wont be bothered by it.

So what you are saying is it is not impossible for him to win

I don't know and I don't care, I play percentages and the percentage call is to oppose horses older than 10. It's just a proven way of getting an edge across the festival and for many, many festivals to come as it is unlikely to change any time soon. If one beats me then tough. I am bound to back losers and lay winners - that is inevitable so I am just looking to give myself the best chances and one proven way is to leave the old timers alone

Thats fine judorick good luck to you.

The game is a passion for me, one of the highlights is sticking with one that keeps delivering. The age stat is against him I couldn't care less, like budd says this lad owes us nothing.

I don't know if you are a pure number cruncher with no passion for the game, but surely you can see why we will be remaining loyal?

Nothing more rewarding than keeping faith with an old favourite who has served you well in the past, only for it to deliver the goods yet again on the big occasion. It's the sort of thing that makes our sport so great; far more so than the dollars and cents.

Well said,and especially one that won his last race impressively.

Yep agreed,certainly doesnt look like he's regressing to me

sick of the regressing talk myself alright.. the horse gives his all in his races, it must be remembered as well last year he didnt have the best of preparations either, had a horrific fall and had back injuries from it. jonjo will have him right...

Discounting horses merely because of age is absolute folly.
Equally taking 'stats' like 2 winners out of 202 11 year old runners is equally unhelpful. 95% of those 202 maybe have genuinely been past it and dont reflect the other 10 horses who may have had a genuine chance. Without assessing on an indivdual basis it tells us nothing. This is the same reason why trends are useless, but then again if you understood anything about statistics you'd understand that anyway :)

Yep,would be just great if he and also Kauto could stuff those age stats where they belong.
Kauto as ive said before dont do stats he eats them for breakfast,reckon AR will do the same.

Otis,i totally agree with your comments mate,personally take no notice of stats and trends at Cheltenham.

Long Run was the first 6yo to win the Gold Cup in how many years?

Albertas also seems to buck the trend of RSA Chase winners actually winning another graded race after that we've seen in recent years.

Tbf I often use trends as a guide but the older I get the less reliant I become. If they're good enough and all that.

Won it's RSA Chase which it couldn't possibly do 'as the stats said Reynoldstown winners never win the RSA'

Interesting as that stat will get broken again this year as well