peddlers cross 4/1

yes he is one with a very sound chance ,if he didnt run at kempton last time behind s.s he would be fav still ino . and you cant take that run littaraly ,the track would not have played to his strengths and that bad mistake at the 1st meant he was always playing catchup .
think he will still be around this price or bigger come arkle day so wouldnt take any shorter tho.

i can't believe he's a SHORTER price now than before he got stuffed at kempton.

he is the class horse tho isnt he

Based on a run how long ago? He's a rank price imo. You are betting that he's going to bring his Champ Hurdle form into the race. Something that he has not yet shown over fences & on the day of the Arkle won't have been seen for a year. I think he has obv got a good chance but horrible price.

The fact that his price has held up after his Kempton run is a big positive imo. Im convinced we"ll see a much better horse come the big day.

Just been onto oddschecker and can't believe this horse is now 3/1 across the board. What has he done over fences to suggest he should be anywhere near that price? Great hurdle form, but chasers shouldn't be priced up on what they've achieved over hurdles. I really don't like the fact that he's been kept off the track for so long too: I think he could have done with another novice chase after that disappointment.

Love the horse, terrible price.  I was firmly in his corner at the start of the year, but if his price gets much shorter I may consider laying him.

His 3/1 makes Sprinter's 9/4 look masive.

I'm already on Peddlers @ 8/1 and Sprinter Sacre @ 12/1 so I'm sitting pretty in the Arkle market, but I think it's very telling that Peddlers was 6/1 after that Kempton defeat and they've backed him into 3/1 - 7/2 since then without being seen on the racecourse.

Market vibes are very strong and I think they know that Kempton run was all wrong and fancy getting him back bouncing for March.

laughable price totally agree with previous poster how can he be 7-2 when he was 5s before sacre murdered him...

if you take the kempton run at face value then yes 9/4 against 7/2 is laughable price ,but can the kempton run be taken at face value !  i havent backed any of the 2 by the way am in the al ferof and menorah camp

Kempton is not cheltenham if you bet horses at cheltenham based on kempton form you will end up poor.  It hit first fence and i would bet ss every day at a flat 2m.  Horse has run best hurdler in years to 1/2 lenght.  Beat a ascot gold cup winner the year before.

last year ss was looking like the winner until the hill. 

4/1 was great value - your up 25% already.

fools will bet flat track bullies at chelt every year - at least we get value.

fyi - highest rated hurdlers have great record in arkle.  also so so horses who stay. maybe explains 3/1

Kempton is not cheltenham if you bet horses at cheltenham based on kempton form you will end up poor.  It hit first fence and i would bet ss every day at a flat 2m.  Horse has run best hurdler in years to 1/2 lenght.  Beat a ascot gold cup winner the year before.

last year ss was looking like the winner until the hill. 

4/1 was great value - your up 25% already.

fools will bet flat track bullies at chelt every year - at least we get value.

fyi - highest rated hurdlers have great record in arkle.  also so so horses who stay. maybe explains 3/1

Kempton is not cheltenham if you bet horses at cheltenham based on kempton form you will end up poor.  It hit first fence and i would bet ss every day at a flat 2m.  Horse has run best hurdler in years to 1/2 lenght.  Beat a ascot gold cup winner the year before.

last year ss was looking like the winner until the hill. 

4/1 was great value - your up 25% already.

fools will bet flat track bullies at chelt every year - at least we get value.

fyi - highest rated hurdlers have great record in arkle.  also so so horses who stay. maybe explains 3/1


you must rare sacrew pretty highly too then...

sacre may have ended up with a similar rating of hurdles dont forget peddlers had 2 seasons to achieve that mark.

so what was is its rating vrs peddlers at end of its first year?  i would assume lower and peddlers was underestimated anyway.

Kempton form doesn't stand up at Chelt? Long Run, Capt Chris, Zarkandar just 3 festival winners I can think of off the top of my head that impressed at Kempton.

Kempton was a non event after he bulldozed the first and in the proccess picked up an injury.His jumping had previously looked impressive albeit in small fields and in less demanding company at Bangor but how he can be written off in some quarters on the basis of one run is a mistake.His form at previous festivals has shown  his tenacious fighting qualities in grade one company and his temperament for the big occassion.Make no mistake you will see a different horse on March 13th in the Arkle

The Inca - for info, PC had an OR of 151 at the end of his novice season to SS's 149.  He was unbeaten though so that was always likely to be bettered. 

PC wasn't right at Kempton, end of story.  He wasn't murdered because he was never in the race.  It may turn out to be a blessing in disguise as he was tested and minor muscle problems found.  If he had raced in a minor race and beaten modest rivals he might not have been tested and the problems not found.  The problems may even explain a longer standing trend with the horse that he is best when fresh.

That is a key point though, when he was beaten I decided then I would still back him in the Arkle as  long as he went straight there and didn't run again!   ACStafford - it is you that needs him to run again before, not the horse

I don't think anyone is writing off Peddlers Cross, just that if on the day they are 5/2 joint favourites then given their previous meeting i don't understand how people could be so bullish that Peddlers Cross would be the better bet. If on the day Peddlers Cross was 11/2 and Sprinter Sacre was 13/8 then given the reasons stated above (festival form, hurdle form, etc) then Peddlers Cross would be the better bet. Just my opinion. Looking at the way it's going chances are they could be close to joint favs on the day in which case i would back Sprinter Sacre of the pair.

wellchief - completely agree with your comments.

Must admit, I think this year's Arkle could have a tutorial written about it with regard to showcasing the importance of value in betting.

I wanted to be against Sprinter Sacre for ages based purely on his price, and I still do, because I feel the quality of opposition, coupled with the niggling doubt about the suitability of the Cheltenham hill, means he should not be 9/4.

Peddlers is one of many with the ability to win this, but how he can be 3-1 for this based on his chasing to date is beyond me. Agree with wellchief that I'd much rather be on Sprinter at 9/4 than Peddlers at 3/1 now.

Am beginning to think that al Ferof and Menorah are the value now (Cue Care fair, but already backed him a few months back), although I am massively worried about the latter's ability to jump.

Friday at Newbury will have the biggest influence on the shape of the market

Don't think anyone is writing him off.  Its just his price is so bad based on what he's achieved over fences, goes to the festival with a doubt over his injury and without a run in three months against a horse like Sprinter who has got better and better after every run over hurdles and fences.

Peddlers run in the CH was fantastic, but since the  he's won two mickey mouse novices and been stuffed in two big races.  He's got excuses for those losses, but you have to take them into account; you can't just ignore them and pretend they didn't happen.

I love the horse, and I really want him to run well in the Arkle.  I really like Donald McCain aswell, but at this stage I think you'd be mad to take 3/1. FWIW i backed him at 14/1 in April last year and layed off on here at shorter odds, so I'll win money if he does win

Thieves thanks - my last post was a typo.  lower should have read higher. 

masterminded - so based on kempton form are you going with kauto this year?

No I'm not actually Inca but that is not to do with him running at Kempton but his age tbh.

I dont think either PC or SS win the Arkle, am in Cue Card's corner.

I dont think either PC or SS win the Arkle, am in Cue Card's corner.

Bog Warrior if he turn up, PC if he doesn't...

I suspect Friday will tell us a lot marychain. If CC can't beat SS in receipt of 3lbs then I'd be astonished he can beat him at Cheltenham....and I don't think he will.

I'm with Theives on this

Thieves - I really like Bog Warrior for this as well. One or two of the British horses could be first class, but they've not achieved much as chasers yet.

festivalfanatic - only possibility is a slowly run race that turns into a sprint.

If that happens, which it might very well, then I'd not be disheartened as long as CC is close enough.

At the start of the year he was firmly my choice but I just cannot back him now and for me, at the current prices, Al Ferof is the best value by a long shot.

Just need to look at the trends and key races over the years which have produced Arkle winners to see that. I have no doubt that either Peddlers or SS could end up doing him on the day, but the fact that he has won over hurldes and fences around cheltenham is a massive plus for me.

Big negative for PC is that he wont have been seen since around xmas. I also still have that Aintree run in my mind and he may well have gone over the top by then but id want about 6/1 to make me think about backing him now in such a competitive race as the arkle. Think SS's price is ridiculous too but what do i know

At the start of the year he was firmly my choice but I just cannot back him now and for me, at the current prices, Al Ferof is the best value by a long shot.

Just need to look at the trends and key races over the years which have produced Arkle winners to see that. I have no doubt that either Peddlers or SS could end up doing him on the day, but the fact that he has won over hurldes and fences around cheltenham is a massive plus for me.

Big negative for PC is that he wont have been seen since around xmas. I also still have that Aintree run in my mind and he may well have gone over the top by then but id want about 6/1 to make me think about backing him now in such a competitive race as the arkle. Think SS's price is ridiculous too but what do i know

Think will lay some now having started thread in August on horse when 8/1, agree is silly price now but so is the Fav.

Got to agree with the majority of comments. I've backed Peddlers at 10s and 6s before his defeat to SS. But I can't have him being so close to SS in the betting after Kempton.

Yes, he will stay well, Yes he likes Cheltenham, But that has to be a reason to back him at a price not the reason he should be almost the same price as a horse that thrashed him.

I'm not totally convinced he wasn't right at Kempton, yes they found a slight problem, but if he won that day that seems to me as if it was a problem that wouldn't even have been picked up without hunting for a reason to explain the run.

No doubt this support has to be a positive, but I just can't get out of my head how much ground sprinter was taking out of Peddlers at each fence, it looked so much easier for SS that day. Obviously I hope I'm wrong of course.

I suppose the other lingering doubt about PC is that he might well want to go further than two miles now to be at his very best over fences. As has been stated a million times, hurdling and chasing are different beasts, and it may be that he doesn't get away from his fences in the same stride he did over hurdles, making a stiffer test of stamina more important.

Not saying this for sure, but another doubt to make 3-1 look awful value.

If he needs further than 2m, then he is perfect for the Arkle...

cant wait for stan james to put the match bet up at minute looking like 5/4 pc vrs 4/6 ss.  lovely weeks expenses will be based on the 5/4.  last year the clowns went 1/1 huricanne fly 4/5 menorah.  I had my week based on that.

^ Not this again...

The 'speed horses don't win Arkles' view, that is

not what?

They used to.  In the days when 5yo got a huge weight claim...

he meant me inca

Sorry thieves - was meant to be a tongue in cheek comment but re-reading it, it sounded like I was being arsey, which I was not intending!

I have always thought that the Arkle is one of the best races at the Festival (especially for novices) and when the class increases, so does the requirement to have a complete package in a horse to win it (i.e. - you need speed, stamina, good jumping etc,,). However, you can win weakish renewals without a complete package, or flipped on it's head, you can win strong ones too, so long as you are blessed with most of those characteristics at a very high level.

So, I think you can win an Arkle without necessarily wanting/needing to go further than two miles as long as you jump very well and have tons of speed. It's just that usually those types don't tend to be exceptional, which helps propagate the idea that speedy sorts don't win it.

Am probably making a complete hash of trying to explain what I think here so will give up!

No need for apology, I didn't take it as arsey, largely as I typed the original comment with a smile on my face...   Arkle winners do well in the Champion Chase but then again the real speedsters don't win that either

This is what its all about - having an opinion and putting the green down.  Good luck everyone.