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The Triumph Hurdle

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Replies: 415
By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 31 Jan 12 14:19
Dildar wins comfortably enough but not as easily as some would expect,,,,ground looked very tacky but once squeezed he picked up effortlessly to accelerated passed the Tizzard horse without much problem......in fact looking at the replay I think the way he picked up and strode out was very good in that ground.
By:
cammy glasgow
When: 31 Jan 12 14:25
Didlar wont be winning a truimph hurdle after thet jumping display ? wont get away with that @ presbury parkExcited
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 31 Jan 12 14:26
Dildar

Happy with that, 14s an over reaction!
Fto, very green at his hurdles, didnt blow at all, enjoyed it, experience is what he needs, one or two more runs before the triumph on better ground he will be a force!
In that race there was no pace, he was very good at one down the back where ruby pulled him out to catch up with the leaders! Very happy with my voucher at 20s!
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 31 Jan 12 14:28
I am not defending him nor am i talking through my pocket but in my opinion he 'bunny hopped' the ones he was cantering at. The horse did not blow after the race and he will come on a stone for that run. Like i said above, it is experience that is what he needs, Nichols may well regret not getting him onto the race track sooner than today but i am happy with my 20s.

I await the minsk with bated breath, to which i have 12s Crazy
By:
cammy glasgow
When: 31 Jan 12 14:30
agree bunny hopped a few of them Excited
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 31 Jan 12 14:33
Could you jump a hurdle without running quickly enough? NO? Didn't think so Crazy
By:
cammy glasgow
When: 31 Jan 12 14:36
oh dear have i hit a nerve LaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 31 Jan 12 14:47
Noooooo, no, no, no, no! No nerves hit here, Edinburgh


Cough sorry

Glasgow LaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
judorick
When: 31 Jan 12 15:04
triumph minefield!

they should re-name the race Laugh

gawd knows what will be winning - I will as usual combine whatever trends come out with the top 3 or 4 on the topspeed ratings nearer the time
By:
OnTheSnaff
When: 31 Jan 12 15:26
Winner yet to be seen in public (Nap)Wink
By:
judorick
When: 31 Jan 12 15:44
Highly likely OTS, which is why I will wait til everything has run before playing
By:
Masterminded
When: 31 Jan 12 15:59
Lunatics Dildar should still be 20-1. Hype doesn't win Triumph Hurdles NAP.
By:
judorick
When: 31 Jan 12 16:05
lol masterminded, there are hype horses in every Triumph - hence the "minefield"
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 31 Jan 12 16:07
Yes have to agree, there are hype horses every year. MINSK ! ! ! Being the biggest yet!
By:
strontium
When: 31 Jan 12 16:10
Judo - out of interest, do you feel you can trust the speed/timeform ratings for novice hurdles when the runners have often only had 2-4 races, often uncompetetive? For example, how did Zarkander come out before the Triumph last year?
By:
Masterminded
When: 31 Jan 12 16:27
I think Dildar will turn into a nice horse but looked very inexperienced today & his class got him in front. I can see him developing into a nice hurdler. Probably next year though unless he improves his jumping dramatically. I think Pearl Swan could turn out to be Nicholls' best hope for the race. Still very much like Grumeti & think 12's is good value at the moment. A few nice unraced ones to come out soon though. Henderson hasn't unleashed any yet.
By:
judorick
When: 31 Jan 12 16:32
Strontium

Zarkandar was clear top rated on Topspeed despite only having run once and that was very significant I thought - especially as that was in a Grade 2 on debut

But it is a basic strategy I use especially in non handicap races i.e trends + Topspeed

Note: I am looking for runners that produced their highest Topspeed on their most recent race to show that they are getting faster. This is why I will be looking to see if Sprinter Sacre improves his rating next time.
By:
willie the milk
When: 31 Jan 12 16:35
He will def need be be quicker and neater at the hurdles. We did see however he has an engine. I would not write him off just yet and he has the right team to educate him.
Cammy - At least he has been seen over hurdles now, and wonCool
By:
strontium
When: 31 Jan 12 16:36
Thanks Judo. OK, maybe Zarkander was a bad example Laugh

Do the Topspeed ratings stand up in general for novice hudlers? As I said, they're oftne lightly raced, often in small fields and uncompetetive races?.
By:
sintonian
When: 31 Jan 12 16:48
I agree with MasterMinded here. He does look a nice horse in the making but wonder if there is enough time for him to improve sufficientlt between now and March.

Any bookmaker who held there prices at 10/1 is a Khunnt.
By:
judorick
When: 31 Jan 12 16:48
yes they work very well in most non handicaps, except the bumper. It's handicaps where they are not so consistent but will throw up massive price winners and places from time to time like Mr McGoldrick at 66/1 and Tullamore Dew placed at 80/1 in the Coral Cup

but I don't use them in isolation, I also use the trend analysis in particular Paul Jones book
By:
strontium
When: 31 Jan 12 16:50
Thanks, that's interesting.
By:
race leader
When: 01 Feb 12 09:37
Anyone know which Henderson horses could become candidates?
By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 01 Feb 12 11:20
After Sanctuaire's performance yesterday Nicholls still said thhat the highlight for him was Dildar's win.  He knows the ability this horse has got and was glad to get him on a racecourse.  Yes he did not demolish his rivals but I doubt that was ever the plan.....get him home in front so he gets the experience imo. He quickened away well in tacky ground, did not jump the greatest but he knows he has the class to be better than that on better ground and a better pace.
****I remember what he said about Celestial Halo's first run and he was only second.  Nicholls knew he woould be a stone better at the festival....remind me what was the result.....erm....!!?? oh yeh, he won the Triumph!
What happened with Zarkander after just one win?.....this is a trainer who knows EXACTLY what it will take to win this race.  If he is gushing about Dildar for this race....that is good enough for me at 14s!! (or at 20s when I put my ante post bet on)
By:
roobuck
When: 01 Feb 12 13:27
Yes have to agree, there are hype horses every year. MINSK ! ! ! Being the biggest yet!

However you have backed both Dildar and Minsk without them having a run? Why?
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 01 Feb 12 14:47
I like taking risks, at the prices i backed, if the hype is to come to fruition, then them prices i have will be history and they are both likely to go off very short.

We are still awaiting to see MINSK, however, we have now seen DILDAR and i was very happy with what i saw. Onwards and upwards now to the Adonis and hopefully then the triumph, a route Zarkander made last term, and Celestial Halo.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 01 Feb 12 14:49
I am a big follower of this forum, i do hold my own opinions of course i do but i am also an equally as big a follower on here and if a few people seemingly in the know on here are bullish about something, i will look at it and make a decision for myself as to whether to play or not. Try and get a grip from any vibes on here and in the market.
By:
Glenwood
When: 01 Feb 12 17:47
why is this market still suspended?
By:
judorick
When: 01 Feb 12 17:54
time for the Taunton win by Dildar was very slow really - 21 seconds slower than standard, there were much faster races on the same card
By:
sintonian
When: 01 Feb 12 18:36
Sky

Bet

Are offering 4 places on Triumph & Supreme until 8pm.
By:
strontium
When: 01 Feb 12 18:52
Glenwood - because the entries aren't released until tomorrow lunch time.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 01 Feb 12 23:44
I wouldnt look too much into the time of the race myself, they went no pace for the majority of the race and dildar sprinted clear. And on that tacky ground too. Was always going to be a very slow time!
By:
tomdeane
When: 02 Feb 12 00:09
Grumeti all the way...

Still think he is the one to beat. Speed, stamina, guts, trained by a Triumph master having a good season. All you could want at 12/1. Actually think he was made to look a little less than he is at the weekend - he was the only one to be involved from a way out and stay on strongly up the hill. I really like him.
By:
judorick
When: 02 Feb 12 00:27
it's alright saying "I wouldn't look at the time of the race"

but I always look at times of races and when they run a slow time like that, relative to other races on the card most importantly, then you are always assuming they can run a fast time until they actually do

and I don't bet on assumptions too often
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Feb 12 07:56
Think we all know how you bet Judo,told us enough times.
By:
buddeliea
When: 02 Feb 12 08:02
These Cheltenham festival races are all about winning and using the right tactics etc to achieve that.
Speed figures,ratings etc should not be used too literally when it comes to the festival imo.Especially with young improving 4yr olds.
But each to their own.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 02 Feb 12 08:40
The 2 i really like are at this stage also grumeti but as i have already stated dildar, i think he really is the real deal and lightening will strike thrice in that both celestial halo went onto win the adonis as well as zarkander and both after rather lacklustre looking debut's. But i don't see that with dildar, it only looked lacklustre due to the early pace, he bunny hopped almost all bar one hurdle cos he was galloping too slowly for himself i felt. When Ruby quickened him up down the back straight to catch the leaders, that hurdle he jumped when doing so was jumped very fluently. He has immense flat speed and although a little green first time up, can only improve for better ground and a better paced race.

Grumeti i fully agree with the above statement, though the winner that day was impressive to the eye, cruised in behind them, Ruby giving the field upwards of 4 lengths at one stage, and showed great battling qualities to get up up the Cheltenham hill, whether Grumeti wasn't fully wound up at the weekend i do not know but i was impressed with what i saw in Pearl Swan also.

One thing is for sure, we should be in for a treat come 1:30pm Friday 16th March!
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Feb 12 09:11
To say Dildar sprinted up the run-in is an overstatement by his backers. He won the race by quickening up in the straight, yes, but it was far from impressive.

I like the horse. Looking at him he looks a nice prospect and there will certainly be more to come. But he still has plenty to prove, as does everything else.

I agree with TomDeane, Grumetti also has flat speed and plenty of flat experience and 12/1 might not be a bad price now that we have seen Dildar.  The trial Grumetti won at the weekend was an afterthought due to his fall at Newbury so it was a good effort. He is clearly a tough horse.

Sadlers Risk is favourite and Hobbsy rates him highly. The way he travelled and jumped at Kempton was very good and Hobbsy also has an enviable record in this race. Are we going to see Grumeti,Dildar and Sadlers in the Adonis ?
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Feb 12 09:16
Am actually going to have a small bet on Grumetti at 12/1 now we have seen Dildar. There is plenty of positives for him,imo, but at the same time he is no certainty given the open nature of this race, but at the prices there is room to add another if needs be.
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Feb 12 09:19
Er actually no I aint .. the 12/1 has gone Cry
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