C&A certainly hurdles very well AJM. I'm not knocking the horse, but his last run was more or less worthless as a piece of form, so his price is based solely on beating Keys on that horses seasonal debut. Whilst he is very likeable I just dont think he should be so short... but then that looks to be the story of the race this year.

I'd say 25/1+. I actually thought he was 14's or 16's everywhere. Only just seen he is still 20's in places, so not so bad.

i dnt think steps to freedoms form is falling apart strontium. just because prospect wells got beat in  the tolworth. do u think he ran to his best?  he never looked to be traveling. for what ever reason.

Personally i think nicholls got it wrong, wasnt it an after thought to run in the tolworth? so wasnt trained with this race in mind. forget the tolworth run he's better than this.

steps was giving him P wells weight at chelt bt still won and did he the same giving 6lbs to Montbazon in the the aintree bumper. i get where ur all coming from 20's montbazon. yeah looks value bt he's got to find 8 lengths on steps if u take the weigth and his winning distance.   

it jus reminds me of cue cards bumper win over al ferof. and looked wat happened there. nt that im comparing steps and al ferof.

I am discounting the Tolworth (PW ran far below himself), but PW was a little disappointing in his run before that at Ascot. Before that at Newbury he really did impress me when beating All the Aces.

"Falling apart" is probably the wrong way to put it. I wasn't very impressed with STF in the first place. I thought he was lucky to win at Cheltenham in and that PW would reverse the form, perhaps quite easily. I know others think STF was given a great ride in that race and won easily but that wasn't my impression.

As described above, the bumper form of STF with Montbazon doesn't bother me, certainly not to the tune of 8 lb.

I'm not sure what you're driving at with Cue Card/Al Ferof since CC won the bumper (like STF) but AF reversed in the hurlde?

Overall, I'm happy with 20s on Montbazon as a sporting bet in an open race. He's an improving horse who I like. I don't think he's very likely to win the Supreme, but that's reflected in the price.

You could also consider that STF beat Ericht by a few lengths, who was in turn hammered by Colour Squadron and Montbazon. Appreciate it was testing day which may have played some part.

I haven't got a clue what i'm backing at the moment, but can't see myself backing STF. I would like to see Tetlami out again in a graded race

Darlan has an interesting entry in the Betfair Hurdle (formerly the totesport) and I think it would be quite a likely target given his connections & the negative comments after fairly good runs. JP managed to win the race before finishing a decent 2nd in the Supreme with the talented enigma that is Get Me Out Of Here. Darlan would be going in with a similar profile and while he needs to improve I think he's capable of winning. He travels well through his races, he can battle & I think a strong pace at Newbury will suit.

A lot of people like Montbazon & I would have to agree. I see him as the type who will improve through the season & the better ground will be more suitable. I do think he is more of a place prospect at this stage though.

Still I wait to see an entry for Mono Man. I hope he does reappear soon because I think he will have come on a lot from his first run. He has been looked after so far and see him developing into a pretty decent horse. Have said it before 33's is very big. I would love to know how Nicky rates his novices this season because he has loads & they all tie in with bits of form.

Care to elaborate on that Sint?

But STF is still a year older and stronger and now doesnt have to give weight. The system obviously thinks there is much more improvement from 4 to 5 than from 5 to 6 and I just always think thats a bit of a leap of faith. Every horse is different.

Ericht got turned over fair and square at Huntingdon today, 1/5. Im sure he'll win a Noivce hurdle at some stage though he is no festival winner, unless it's a handicap.

Form of STF's last race at Chelt looking woeful now......

The Sharp Novices Hurdle winner, that Steps to Freedom won, has a poor record in the Supreme.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharp_Novices'_Hurdle

Recent winners Moon over Miami, I'msingingtheblues, Golan Way, Loosen my Load and Cue Card have either not ran in the Supreme, or haven't been placed.

Totally different ground today than against STF.
Ericht was beaten a long way lto on soft going.

Just saying the ground was different thats all,it may well have had a bearing on his performance.
His last 3 races suggest he performs over hurdles better on good ground,may be coincidence,maybe not.
Of course you may be right and its just a case of the Cheltenham race being poor.
All deserves mentioning imo,we are trying to work out a tricky race here.

Yep both fair comments I think he is better than his last couple of runs but not much better. Also agree that a step up in trip would suit him well. Could even see him as an Albert Bartlett horse

What has happened to Simonsig?

I'm sure I read somewhere that Henderson said in an interview last week that he was being aimed at the Neptune - yet if the market on here over the last 2 months is any guide the Supreme looks the more likely option?

But if he were a definite for either race he'd surely be single figures?

Simon surely will be out in Feb and then be aimed at the Supreme.

Budde, not sure what your point is re Ericht. He hacked up on GoodtoSoft in a Bumper last season which is the same going he had today.

The going today was GoodtoSoft not Soft. He won two bumpers on Soft and GS aswell so dont really see that he has a ground preference tbh.

And that's eactly why you are trying to find excuses for Ericht, Bud!

Im on Montbazon aswell but we need to keep a balanced view mate.

Maybe I have wires crossed in relation to whose form took a knock!

Must admit i had to have a think before i posted my last comments.

Gets to yer this Cheltenham lark!!