Cheltenham Festival
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Supreme Novices
Supreme Novices
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Well to be honest pal its more his run style....
He doesn't do anything to quick and although not short of gears just feel he would be better served by the longer race...He is bred with a lot of stamina for me and runs like it too...just an opinion but if I were to back it would only be in the longer race...like I say just an opinion. |
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Fair enough mate, I asked because I was interested in your opinion.
Obviosuly we've thought about it long and hard. I just feel that you need a horse that stays a good bit further to win a Supreme anyway. I stil have massive regrets about Catch Me. He ran a blinder in the Ballymore and only went down a couple of lengths to two really thorough stayers in Tidal Bay and Massini's Maguire in what turned out to be a pretty decent renewal. I honestly think he would have won the Supreme that year if we'd gone for that race. I think C&G shows a bit more pace than CM did, and CM was probably more of a staying type. If he couldnt quite get home in the longer race I dont think C&G will. For a 5 year old to compete with older horses is always going to be tough, but to do it over such a long trip might be too demanding at this stage of his career. Although there is grounds to argue that Sulamani is more of a stanmina influence than Law Society. There is also the ground to consider. I am positive he prefers it softer, and he is much more likely to get that first race on Tuesday. But you may end up being right! |
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Hopefully its a good problem to have for the future though. If he can get further in time, there are loads of nice races to be won over 2m4f in Ireland... the same races CM mopped up for a while
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Just been having a look at Cinders and Ashes. How the hell is this horse 4th favourite!
Absolutely remarkable imo. |
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Agree with that. Very nice type, but I would be staggered if good enough.
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Any thoughts about Montbazon , good enough for a place ?
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imo yes. I was impressed by his performance in that maiden hurdle at Newbury in ground he clearly hated. He and the winner were well clear of a couple of decent looking types in 3rd and 4th, and the narrow, more experienced winner seriously franked the form in the Tolworth on Saturday.
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yeah he is on my rador strontium - had 25 ew for starters. Not going to get too heavily involved with the race. I think Montbazon is crying out for good ground with that action so he should improve. I do worry he hasnt really won races and steps to freedoms form wasnt really franked by pw but .....................
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Can't catch me - interesting stuff
You obviously like the horse as do I actually. I have to say I have the same reservations about the ground with him, just feel it might happen a bit quick for him in the Supreme that isn't to say he can't win as you eluded to he isn't slow but i would love to see him step up in trip because I feel his class is letting him win at 2 miles and if upped in trip he would be even better. At the end of the day you are dammed if he stays on into a place in the supreme and if he wins you are a hero...but for me I like to map the race I feel is going to be best suited to a certain horse...thus giving me the edge I want (greedy)...I do agree in regards to this fella in that he seems to be quicker than catch me but things happen a whole lot quicker in the supreme and that is where I am at with the horse...it is a lottery this supreme that is why I am so keen he went up in trip as feel he would be a worthy challenger to fingal bay as feel that race is there for a good horse like him...but what do I know time will tell us what the right decision was or will be...The biggest thing I do like with cash and go is he looks very tough and am starting to like some of Sulamani's stock... Talking about Catch Me who I also backed myself at the 14's ante post I thought he did run in the right race the ground just went against him in the end and he wasn't always the most fluent of jumpers either which is why I also think he went for the right race... I have to say I don't get as involved as I used to ante post so am non biased but do like a good row about the form book... So on that note I find it slightly disappointing that yourself and Mr Carver flippantly passed Cinders and Ashes over like he was nothing because if you are interested in this race you would have to consider this animal...he is so tough what can you not like about him...he is the best 2 mile novice I have seen this season in England imo...I have people on here telling me Montbazon is a bet at 20 which is fair but cinders is also 20's and has achieved a lot more...yes he ran colour squadron to a length again finding one to good like he has done on 4 out of five starts...yes he can improve but he hasn't achieved what Cinders has over hurdles so far...I am not knocking Montbazon at all by the way...Cinders and ashes has thrashed the useful Keys 9 lengths and ran the high class broadbackbob to a length after making a bad mistake...The Keys (100 rated flat horse) form looks good to me and shows he is blossoming as he is getting older as whilst getting beaten by Keys on the flat it shows he has improved past him...he isn't short of pace either, Like I say I haven't got involved because it is roulette with so many improving novices going to war...I will say I couldn't have the favorite though...so get on...Darlan looks an Aintree type to me but as I said earlier I also think that is where Cinders and Ashes will be seen to best affect. I have almost talked myself into a wager on the horse but won't be as am more interested in a couple of other races... sos for pi55ing on... |
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C.C.M........ you obviously like this horse
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I should like him harry, I'm part owner
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re Cinders and Ashes, I obviously mentioned the wrong one there! Fair enough mate, respect your opinion. I just dont think he has beaten anything of note to be so short. Decent enough run in the Bumper, but we all know bad the record is of bumper horses in the Supreme. And we was a long way behind the principals at Aintree.
Dont get me wrong, I am really not knocking the horse. He;s a very nice type. I just think his price is daft, based on what he has achieved. But then I suppose you could say that about alot of horses in the race, particularly the English ones. |
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Hey Harry, good post, you may be right about Cinders, I do like him and did last yr, he probably has unfashionable connections so may be easy to underestimate a little. I certainly think he is above average and is tough. On what I know so far, I would be amazed if he won the race, but I can see him running a gallant race but perhaps finding one or two too good.
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Ah, everyone is at it waste of time
 you won't be interested in my garbage then lol... |
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And a good row about the form book amngst genuine enthusiasts is great sport itself!
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And as least pushing Cinders is not stating the obvious, and that is good for the debate.
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Always respect your opinion Mr Carver so thats fair...
Cannot catch you is that cash and go you have an interest??apologies Agree about cinders at cheltenham but was over the top by aintree and was just a 4 year old after all...he is nice and tough and agree carver he may get nailed thats why I think he is an aintree type.. |
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Dont be daft, of course I am still interested... Doesnt mean I know anymore than you mate, I'm probbaly biased!
Yes Catch Me previously and now Cash and Go, who is his half brother. |
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Ah fair play pal good stuff...well you know what I think...so whats the chances of the neptune or are you and others already in deep punting wise for supreme????
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Its nothing to do with punting tbh, just about which race he'd have the best chance of winning. And I'll leave decisions like to that to EOG. He has forgotten more than I'll ever know!
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Ah thats fair enough...see what he thinks, its never to late...
I have to say catch me this fellow looks a little more genuine than his brother what do you think?? Just like his attitude more lets say... |
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But it will definitely be the Supreme...
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More i look at this race,the more im siding with Montbazon.
I have backed 2 of Hendersons-Tetlami and Molotof,and i fancy both of them,but i have a feeling neither will run in the race,although not given up yet. Just think out of the rest of this minefield,Montbazon is the best value.Its crazy that a horse like Cinders and Ashes for example is ahead of him,that wont be good enough imo,pretty confident of that. I think Montbazon will improve a fair bit for normal supreme ground,and quiet honestly think he should be bl00dy near fav.With the possible exception of STF i think he should be shorter than all those ahead of him in the betting. |
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We will have to get betfair to put up some match bets on montbazon against Cinders and ashes...What price would you make Montbazon Budd???
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I like Montbazon alot too... but as I posted on Sint's thread I keep thinking about backing him but then stop myself. Cant get out of my head that Steps to Freedom beat him a bit more easily than a couple of lenghts suggests, giving him 6lb, at Aintree. He has proved that he hurdles very well, so takes a but of a leap of faith to think that Montbazon has improved past him for me.
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not really interested in that sort of bet,just trying to get the winner of this race mate.
FWIW if it were soft/heavy i would make it fairly close,but on normal supreme ground,would expect Montbazon to win comfortably. Cannot see any form that gives Cinders an earthly unless its very soft going. One good thing about this years supreme,its stopping all the Bumper shorties from getting backed like they cant lose,and saving their backers a load of dosh!! Like the last 2 years. |
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Interesting budd...you think cinders needs soft then???
Agree catch me...still think montbazon although looking a decent prospect still has a lot to prove, but can improve i'd say... |
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looking at the form yes i do to stand a chance in the supreme,just think their are better horses,Montbazon being one.
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CCM - why do you think the bumper form matters so much? Hurdling's so much about the jumping - otherwise they'd all be won by G2 and G3 flat horses!
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I think it matters to a point,in particular when a horse has proved he can jump and has beaten another candidate comfortably as Montbazon and Cinders at Aintree for example.
Also Cinders weakened a fair bit towards the end of the Chelt bumper. Its not the be all and end all as Dunguib and Cue Card have proved,although they did run well in their supremes. |
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But thats my point strontium. Steps to Freedom hurdles really well imo, looks a natural. So I dont see how Montbazon can make that up on him. He would have to be a much better jumper, or have improved much more. And I think thats a complete leap of faith
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Budd - I was thinking particularly about the Montbazon/Steps to Freedom bumper (which CCM mentioned) where there wasn't a huge amount between them.
Bumpers obviously are a guide to whether a horse travels and whether it's quick - at least the good ones are, the slow-slow-slow-sprint bumpers can be a joke. However, I think bumper form is massively overrated in assessing novice hurdlers. It ignores the key feature of those races - that the horses have to jump. It also ignores the fact that young horses mature at very different rates. It ignores that some trainers try to win bumpers for their own sake while others use them simply for racecourse experience. And it ignores that different horses have been schooled very differently over hurdles and even fences in private, before, during and after their bumper careers. it's easy to latch on to the Champion Bumper winner, for example, for the Sumpreme, but it isn't necessarily sensible. |
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hes twice the price though CCM,back em both seems a good idea to me.
Hes a year younger,might improve more,its possible. |
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CCM - posts crossed. Fair enough - that's why it's called gambling. I wasn't all that impressed with STF at Cheltenham and that form line seems to be falling apart, whereas Montbazon's does not (yet), but the Supreme looks very open this tear. I'm happy with 20ish on Montbaz at this stage.
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I don't think people are considering how fluently Cinders and Ashes hurdles. He has looked a natural and it is unwise to judge him on his bumper form.
It is easy to forgive his bumper defeat at Aintree as he was hampered on a number of occasions and wouldn't have been the first horse not to reproduce his festival form. The way he travelled in the Champion Bumper impressed me, particularly the ground he made coming down the hill. Granted he weakened close home, but he was only a four year old and hopefully he has strengthened sufficiently to last home this time. He may not be a superstar, but there is no outstanding candidate this year. Cinders and Ashes has a good cruising speed, jumps well and is trained by one of the best. Big chance, imo. |
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yeh,agree with all that Stront.
I will look at a horses bumper form but it wont be decisive when trying to get a hurdles winner. |
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Yep, I'm talking myself into it tbh. Can see him being 12's or so on the day, and I dont think the 20's will be around much longer.
Hadnt seen your other post. Can see what you are saying, and you make some excellent points. And there are lots of issues with the Cheltenham Bumper form, especially when it comes to the Supreme! Montelado was the last horse to do the double wasnt he? Take on board that Montbazon could have been more immature back then. And also accept Steps to Freedom's form has taken some knocks, but suppose he could do no more than win. |
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Montbazon 16 on here already! Think I might nick some of the 20's while it lasts.... I've talked about him so much on here I'll be sick if he wins unbacked!
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The last point is more than fair CCM - it's hard to judge how good STF actually is imo.
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AJM good points there pal...that is the way I see it, he cruised round in the bumper before getting outstayed by stronger stayers...still think he maybe better at aintree festival but he isn't without a decent chance in an open renewal...I agree his trainer is excellent, I do like this horse...he looks very sound...but the race is brutal and you could back at least 5/6 with sound claims but if they are all at nice prices you won't do a whole lot of damage...but I won't be.
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