Agree re Darlan. He'd be luckt to get placed. Very lucky. Jump City is sh1t and the horse in 3rd had not ran for over 1000 days. Dont be pulled in by this beast because he wont be winning.

Mono Man and Sig are NJH's best Supreme Candidates imo. He thinks Cheltenham is a year too soon for Conan, and that is exactly what he said about Sacre and Spirit last year where he was proven correct.

fwiw, NJH ran 3 horses in the Supreme last year, SS & SS, plus Gibb River.

Hendo likes to go in mob handed.

re Darlan, he was agrguably ridden today with his handicap mark in mind and Geraghty's post race comments didn't go against that. They'll want something for the County and the Pipe etc.

What else has JP got for the Supreme?

On Mono Man at big prices, been entered good few times since xmas, not sure why they waiting so long as need to get 2 runs in before Supreme imo.

MM. What do you make of Darlan's from though?

NJH stinks in the Neptune

Agree he's done nothing wrong. But it shows how weak a race it is this year for the horse to be virtually 2nd fav.

In any ordinary renewal, he'd be 25/1 + and rightly so imo.

Yep, fair point. having them peaking in a few months is the main thing and lots of those that have been going well recently will struggle to do that.

Think its a huge ask for Steps of Freedom. To hve been on the go all summer and early on in the season, it is going to take a great training performance to get him at his peak imo.

Waaheb still in all of the bookies markets except Billie Hills.

Opportunity before some of the others shorten when he is taken out?

It looks like Darlan is the one the bookies are clipping in slightly on the back of the Waaheb news.

365 and Spbet: 10's from 12's and Billie Hills 12's from 14's.  Seems like the others are unaffected.

Masterminded suggested It's a gimmie above.

Also guessing by looking at the price on here Fourth Estate won't be running.

I would not worry about Mono Man not being seen since the Winter Festival - he has been entered many times. Half a glance at the way he travelled in his bumper runs tells you he is completely and utterly top class and Barry Gerraghty blamed himself at Newbury for not 'drilling' him into the last. I do not know if he would have won, because clearly it was a red hot race, but he looked in some sort of control or at least like he had an advantage at the last, and the way he rallied after the terrible mistake suggested he had a bit up his sleeve. Dont forget too, he was running that day against hroses who had already had runs this yr so they arguably had an advantage of sorts.

Some the horses they have run in the race in the last few yrs.

2011 - Gibb River was never expected to make up into a Supreme horse, so was campaigned a bit more unually, with 3 runs, none in any higher grade races. Sprinter (who they did not really want to run in March) ran in November and returned sick but then did not run again until Feb 5 at Fos Las (a track virtually identical to Newbury and maybe a decent place to re-start Mono), ran again Feb 19th in his final prep at Ascot (a track Mono has won at so conceivably could return to). Spirit Son had run in France but in the UK debuted on 14 Jan and had his final prep in the good novice at Exeter on Feb 13th.

2010 - Oscar Whisky was their main hope and he ran in a bumper (his 2nd) in November before running over hurdles for the first time in December. He had his 2nd run and his final prep for the Supreme at Sandown in Feb. Arguably greeness was a big disadvantage to this horse in the Supreme, but Henderson was happy to take him there with 2 hurdles runs. General Miller ran in the same race on the back of just 2 hurdles runs - December (beating Ghizao) and January (beaten and over a longer trip).

2009 - the yard had a weaker hand but Ainama visited the Supreme with the benefit of just 2 hurdles runs (Jan and Feb)

2008 - Sentry Duty had 1 seasonal run in Feb over hurdles before going to the race (he'd had 1 soft run down the pan the yr before in a nothing race). Same yr Binocular had debuted in UK in late January and had his 2nd run his final prep in Feb. Same yr, Khyber Kim made his long awaited hurdles debut in December, was then beaten in his prep in Feb before heading to the supreme.

Anyone spot a pattern?

The yard does not over-face them, are happy to run horses in the supreme on the back of limited experience (2 runs more common than 3), are happy to debut horses very late and some of their charges have had their 2nd run over hurdles in Jan or as late as Febuary. Given Mono Man has been repeatedly entered even recently, I would suggest his well-being can be assumed (the same as we must assume it is with any horse who has not run for a while, we have not had updates about).

Possibly of more concern is his ammunition for the race. After te Kennel Gate however it was suggested Molotof wanted further, they seem keen to run Simonsig in the Neptune (and unless it is very soft I think they will), Darlan does not seem to want further so may run, and they seem to want to not take Captain Conan there at all.

I would suggest Mono Man is the best e/w bet of day 1 imaginable and have acted accordingly.

What Stotsfold said!

Paradoxically, his big price is the worry.

Nice analysis R Carver. Kinda hoping Kingy does the same with Montbazon, bring him out again soon then one more in Feb. Then it is time to form a steady queue at the pay-out counter!

Early days but wonder if MM likes to get his toe in ? But we know the first day of the festival is artifically watered anyway ..

Yes nice write up Mr Carver as usual...I have to say it is a good shout this thing at the current odds..the only thing that concerns me is what Brandy eluded to and he is right. Mono Man judging how he jumped on debut was very novicey admittedly in a hot little race..he looks a real top prospect and I can see him getting in the money just because of the engine he has...Sintonian I also agree with yourself and he looks like he will like some cut but like you also said the taps will be on till 1 o'clock on Tuesday.

I will add one thing this Supreme really is looking brutal from a punting prospective...Horrible...

No stand outs and a load of nice prospects, brutal for me, so will sit on the fence and listen to you guys...for what it is worth I like Galileos Choice from what I have seen, he has a touch of class...and if he turns up on the day at current prices I may have a small tickle. I like him.

Hi Sint (and everyone), I agree he may some cut, I think the pilot suggestd as much after newbury (it was quite soft in both bumper runs). Regarding the trainer's record in the race, the facts are plain, but he has won it twice so knows what it takes and lets also be honest, he has had many near misses lately - Binocular, Amaretto, Sprinter, Spirit (General Miller won at Aintree after UR at the Festival)>

Sint, I also agree, I think King knows Mont is a good 'un and is campaigning it as such (possibly unlike Prospect Wells, who has probably surprised the handler!).

Totally agree tom with that...same thoughts from me...yes cash and go is a nice type really wish they would consider the Neptune for him, swear he wants a trip...but you could have 7/8 here and it really is roulette stuff...I like cinders and ashes also but just wonder whether aintree for him. I will step in there with him for sure...I think he is progressive.

See where you are coming from Tomdeane as it is nice to your horses win more often, but then if he had, he would not be a 20/1 chance imo. Darlan has won some weak races and is 12/1.

So far Montbazon has finished runner-up to two subsequent Grade 1 winners. On his Bumper debut he was beaten 1 length by Cheltenian when not getting the clearest of runs, who we know then won the Cheltenham Bumper on his next start. Mont then finished runner-up to Colour Squadron on his hurdling debut who for me was the moral winner of the Tolworth. He has some top class form in the book already so 20/1 he's deffo a spot of value right now imo.