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ya' havin' that one dave
22 Nov 11 12:05
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Date Joined: 14 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 3,746 | Blogger: ya' havin' that one dave's blog
surely if he wins impressive next time out gold cup shud be the target lot of holes in a lot of the gold cup entries
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Report strontium December 4, 2011 2:13 PM GMT
I can certainly see the logic of keeping them apart and of giving BW a chase at Cheltenham.
Report buddeliea December 4, 2011 2:43 PM GMT
From what i saw with Bobsworth the other day,i dont see any novice destroying him,not at all.
Beating Cue Card over 4 furlongs shorter than ideal is impressive form,and imo the best form we have seen yet.
I agree with those that say Bobsworth should go to Cheltenham next,think that will suit the horse.
Report resner not lesnar December 9, 2011 10:25 AM GMT
While I still think they should stay the novice route, I wonder if the retirement of Denman will see GC backed again for this and connections give it serious consideration should he win at Kempton
Report tomdeane December 9, 2011 8:40 PM GMT
Very probably - it all hinges on the Feltham I think. If he does smash up there I'm sure connections will leave the door open and he will be backed. Here's hoping for the trading option!
Report strontium December 9, 2011 9:49 PM GMT
I believe it's already been announced he'll have an entry for the Gold Cup.
Report strontium December 10, 2011 6:48 PM GMT
What does Champion Court's performance today mean for Grand Crus' form? One might say Join Together for the Gold Cup.
Report duffy December 10, 2011 8:18 PM GMT
champion court doesn't get home properly over 3...he travels, gets caughtn out and then plods on.....with half mile to go today he was running all over them....he ran a similar race in the 3 mile albert bartlett last season...travelled well but didn't see it out......grands crus smashed champion court up over his optimum distance 2 1/2......champion court is looking like an ideal jewson horse to me....and over that distance is a smart one......so at the 2.4 mile point of the race today with the way he was travelling compared to what grands crus was doing to him at that point....one might say grands crus form was enhanced todayGrin
Report revedesivola December 10, 2011 8:47 PM GMT
gc form enhancedCrazy
Report duffy December 10, 2011 10:10 PM GMT
reve
GC beat CC over a distance that CC is effective over...today was a completely different situation, at the 2 1/2 point CC was running all over the other 2....you can't use todays race to crab GC with a line through CC....as it was a different race type...if you want toCrazy at the thought of GC being enhanced then you can do Crazy at the thought of GC taking a knock today also.
Report revedesivola December 10, 2011 10:25 PM GMT
i never said his form has been knocked but surely the fact that cc was travelling well half a mile from home doesnt boost the form of grands crus (Crazy)
Report duffy December 10, 2011 10:57 PM GMT
strontium implied that he'd taken a knock today...i was simply pointing out that the two races were chalk and cheese and that at CC optimum distance he was travelling well against a couple of decent chasers...the same distance that GC had him beat out of sight at.
Report revedesivola December 11, 2011 12:38 AM GMT
ok!Happy
Report strontium December 11, 2011 12:34 PM GMT
Duffy - now you're comparing chalk and chesse! You just can't compare the finish of a 2 m 4 race with the 2 m 4 stage of a 3 m race! I'm prepared to buy your main arguement about CC being effective over 2 1/2 but not longer, but the rest is pushing it....
Report duffy December 11, 2011 1:20 PM GMT
fair enough generally speaking but what i'm really trying to point out is that that extra half mile yesterday would see CC way inferior to what we'll see him achieve over shorter...i quite like him for the jewson.
Report tomdeane December 26, 2011 7:11 PM GMT
What now guys and girls? Looked very good to these eyes today.
Report resner not lesnar December 26, 2011 7:29 PM GMT
Impressive again today, they do seem in two minds as to what to do. The time today was quicker than the KG which may sway connections, but I still believe they should stick to the novice races this year. I actually think he'd absolutely bolt up in the new Jewson race, but hope they go for the harder race in the RSA. Think Bobs Worth will go better at Cheltenham and improve for the finish up the hill, but still can't see him beating Grands Crus on todays performance
Report strontium December 26, 2011 7:58 PM GMT
I agree RNL. The times are a bit of a red herring because the KG was run at a seemingly sensible pace whereas Mr Moonshine and Teaforthree went off like the clappers in the Feltham.

However, I think GC may well end up in the Gold Cup. It's rather cutting up with contenders falling by the wayside every week. Who are the Gold Cup players? Long Run, Kauto for sure. Rubi Light? Quito DLR maybe? Not much else unless one of the second season Irish novices who hasn't raced yet steps up.
Report GT December 26, 2011 7:59 PM GMT
dave, you are on the money with the Gold Cup
Report DHB December 26, 2011 8:02 PM GMT
I haven't followed this thread or Grands Crus odds for the Gold Cup until now. I am stunned how low his odds are for that race. Therealbandit and Gloria Victis have been mentioned. However, there's a large number of novices which have tried to win since Captain Christy winning (and that might have been lucky since I think that's the year Pendil was brought down). From 1989 know of Carvills Hill, Slalom, Cyborgo, Danoli, Dorans Pride, Unsinkable Boxer, Beef or Salmon and Iris's Gift. Dorans Pride was the only one to finish and not be tailed off.
There's a more full list until 2003 on this link http://www.racenewsonline.co.uk/newslink/archive/303/130303.htm
Report judorick December 26, 2011 10:22 PM GMT
Grands Crus given RPR 165
Kauto Star given RPR 182

so despite running nearly 4 seconds faster over the same C&D (carried 3lb less) they reckon he has 17lb to find with Kauto... interesting

By the way, 165 makes GC an almost banker for the RSA.
Report brandyontherocks December 27, 2011 9:02 AM GMT
But they can't give a novice a rating in the 80's as he is only beating horses that have raced once or twice



Think is a major player for this years gold cup.   His performance yesterday was brilliant, beating two very good horses with ease.

Kauto is just amazing and defies all logic. How can he still keep performing like he does. 
I fancied long run all last season for the gold cup but wouldn't be backing him to retain his title this year.
So who else is there. Last seasons novices looked ordinary and have done nothing this year to get excited about.    Last seasons rsa has produced just two winners in, master of the hall and quell esprit.  Quito de la roque has show n himself a nice sort but surely not quick enough. Could plod on for a place.

Would not worry about running a novice out of novice company. Either you can run fast and jump at pace or you can't. And grand crus has shown he can
Report brandyontherocks December 27, 2011 9:08 AM GMT
Plus captain chris and somersby proved non stayers and put themselves out of the equation
Report duffy December 27, 2011 12:27 PM GMT
I'm most definitely in a minority here but still....i was/am a big fan of grands crus and looking back to the start of this thread i was one talking his chances up as much as anyone, but the strange thing i am finding is that the more i see of him and even though he is being more than impressive the more i am actually going off his chances for the rsa, let alone the gold cup!!!

Yesterday he was mightily impressive but despite him settling better , he's not throwing his head about is he, he was very , very exuberant and i can see him burning himself out and not getting up that hill over the extra distance.

I am finding myself liking bobs worth more and more, he hated every bit of that race yesterday and it became obvious that a stiff cheltenham will be far more suitable to him, although he didn't even get past the nicholls horse at the end i think he ran with massive credit, they were going a stride or two too quick for him, he made mistakes as a consequence but hung on in there and ended 5 lengths behind the winner, at halfway you would have been forgiven for predicting him ending tailed off.

Was grands crus idling, that's debateable in my book and at the festival if grands crus runs, i think that exuberance plus the stiffer test will work against him and will be just the job for bobs worth.
Report BJG December 27, 2011 12:42 PM GMT
Exactly wat i think Duffy
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat December 27, 2011 3:59 PM GMT
im not impressed with bobs jumping.while i agree chelt suits him better i just dont see him jumping well enough,not arching his back and his hind legs are trailing too much for me.
Report unclepuncle December 27, 2011 5:12 PM GMT
Still think Bob's Worth has a great chance - he hit the first hard and then jumped averagely at best the whole way round. If he can improve for a return to Cheltenham, which he seems to love, then 12/1 looks a fair enough price, especially as Grand Cru may be re-routed (Gold Cup or Jewson).
Report Brooksielad December 27, 2011 7:36 PM GMT
personally think silviniaco conti will fair better out of the three in time. made a bad mistake at the 2nd last and got in tight to quite a few at an important part of the race when grand cru kicked on. people were saying the winner won eased down but it looked a slow tired jump at the last and a plod to the line to me where as conti was winding up at the death. Conti in a gold cup would beat grand cru for me. Shame dom alco wont be siring anymore horses as grand cru and conti look to be the future in the chasing ranks.
Report tomdeane December 27, 2011 10:40 PM GMT
Very interesting post Duffy and I am inclined to agree, or almost agree.

I still think he will get up the hill fine in the RSA, although there is more of a concern in my mind than there was a few weeks back due to his pace and enthusiasm to get racing from a long way out.

Having said this, he got up the hill well enough in the World Hurdle and the Cleeve (on more stamina-sapping ground) and there is also the likelihood that if he gets racing a long way from home this season he will force the others into mistakes which will make it hard for them to grind away late on.

Just love his attitude and his jumping. The real deal for me, in whichever race they decide to unleash him.
Report harry callaghan December 27, 2011 11:18 PM GMT
Yes good post duffy...

I tend to agree with a lot that you are saying and even though I tend to agree with you in regards to Bobs Worth, who is a smashing horse, this Grand Cruise really is looking a top class horse, just oozing class... People may argue about him showing so much speed but he injected the pace off a fast pace at Kempton and as much as I more than anyone would love to seek out some value in the RSA he will surely take some beating...It is looking a vintage year for staying Novices, one of the best bunch of Novices I have seen in a long time, in terms of class that is..

I agree with Tomdeane he might well get them at it a long way from home but you can get out short in the run and if he turns up in the RSA to safe guard if you so wish. He surely will take a world of beating if in the same mood in the RSA and would be a fascinating challenger if allowed to take his chance in the Gold Cup...
Report ArmchairIdiot December 27, 2011 11:26 PM GMT
If Grand Crus were entered for the GC, I'd expect him to go off fav and win.
Report judorick December 28, 2011 11:00 AM GMT
Grands Cru got Topspeed 159 for winning the Feltham and 168 for RPR
Kauto Star got 151 TS and 182 RPR

hard to draw any conclusion other than the King George was not run at Championship pace

How would Grands Crus have fared had he raced in the KG?
Report strontium December 28, 2011 11:00 AM GMT
No way would he go off shorter than Long Run or Kauto Star on the day. The money always comes for the Champion and the King George winner.
Report BJG December 29, 2011 11:04 AM GMT
AN INTRIGUING extra ingredient to the Kauto Star-Long Run showdown in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup looked increasingly likely on Wednesday, with exciting novice Grands Crus set to join them.

RELATED LINKS

    Gold Cup betting
    RSA betting
    Free bets

Roger Stanley, who shares ownership with Yvonne Reynolds, said Grands Crus was "70-30" more likely to run in the Gold Cup than engage the traditional festival route for a novice in the RSA Chase.

"A fast pace is important to Grands Crus and I believe the Gold Cup is the best option for him because the RSA generally tends to be more tactical and potentially more hazardous," said Stanley.

"The quicker they go the better our horse jumps. I'd rather him jump round safely in the Gold Cup and finish third than go for the RSA. We'd then know exactly where we stand for 2013."

The David Pipe-trained grey is unbeaten in three runs over fences. After winning Monday's Grade 1 Feltham Chase in a faster time than Kauto Star's King George, he was a top-priced 12-1 for the Gold Cup and 9-4 for the RSA. Grands Crus is now a general 8-1 chance for the Gold Cup.

Stanley said that while he had yet to discuss a next objective with his trainer, it was likely that as a prelude to the Gold Cup Grands Crus would face his first test against seniors in Cheltenham's Argento Chase on January 28.
David Pipe

David Pipe: trains Grands Crus
  PICTURE: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

The most recent novice to win a Gold Cup was the Pat Taaffe-trained Captain Christy in 1974. He had a reputation as a hair-raising jumper and had fallen in two of his previous six runs over fences.

Since then, of the 20 novices to have contested the race the best performance came from Dorans Pride, third to Mr Mulligan in 1997.

Stanley, whobought Grands Crus as a three-year-old for €80,000 at a Saint-cloud breeze-up, said he appreciated his trainer will be concerned over public perception of running a novice in a Gold Cup following the fatal injury tothe stable's Gloria Victis in 2000.

"I'm totally in agreement we must do what's best for the horse and in this case it's probably running him in the Gold Cup, because that's a likely safer option than the RSA as the faster pace will be in his favour," said Stanley.

"He wouldn't mix it with Kauto Star and Long Run coming down the hill, but we would see what happens from then on."
Report GI MAC December 29, 2011 11:46 AM GMT
Interesting, I've never thought he would take part, but this is from the owner. Would love to hear Pipes take on this.
Report strontium December 29, 2011 1:30 PM GMT
"How to ruin a horse in one easy race".
Report barnesy December 29, 2011 7:37 PM GMT
They need to consider the Queen Mother, they will surely get the fastest pace there and therefore according to the owner the horse will be at its safest
Report strontium December 29, 2011 7:55 PM GMT
Pipe's now thrown a bit of cold water on this

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/12/29/RACING_Crus.html&BID=465

I reckon they'll see how he gets on in the Argento. There'll probably be something in there the can assess him against.
Report tomdeane December 29, 2011 9:57 PM GMT
tomdeane
02 Dec 11 21:17
Joined:
29 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 514 | Blogger: tomdeane's blog
OK, despite hoping he goes for the RSA (at this stage), I've talked myself into a little ante-post bet at ~16/1 for the Gold Cup
.

Simple reason being that I think that is too big a price. I appreciate that he might not run in the race and that inflates the odds, but you don't know if any of these horses will be running in four months time and with the option to trade out I don't see much downside.

If he bolts up in the Feltham, beating Bobs Worth easily in the process, he will be considerably shorter for the Gold Cup, and if he gets beaten he would not be good enough anyway, which means a speculative opinion punt at this stage would be throw away for the right reasons (misjudging his ability).

I completely respect the main arguments against him running a big race so early in his career. But... take a look at the ante-post prices for the Gold Cup, and look how threadbare the realistic challenge to Long Run is. As I said earlier in this thread, I personally do not rate last year's staying novices (at all) and although I wouldn't base my opinion on one bad run, Bostons Angel was desperate today and I don't fancy the likes of Quito De La Roque living with the pace of a Gold Cup field. Also don't think he's good enough.

Just a little update so as to avoid any potential aftertiming accusations should the grey monster do the business in the Gold Cup:

I was very pleasantly surprised to read the Stanley comments in the paper and have been able to lay this bet off at 10.0, to leave a nice free bet.

To be honest I still suspect Grands Crus will run in one of the novice races but this trade has (for once Excited) worked out as I had expected. Still think he would be worthy of the utmost respect if they did bite the bullet and go for gold.

I think Long Run is very beatable, as is King Kauto. For all that I love him, he has to go the extra two and a quarter furlongs at a track he does not seem to love in March, and Father Time will play some sort of role (even if it is minor in the rapidly approaching March). And the Irish challenge is absolute gash.

If it happened to be dead or softish ground, Grands Crus would go through it better than the others, too.
Report R Carver December 30, 2011 12:38 AM GMT
Nice position to be in there Tom. Good work!

I am old fashioned and I have to say that i would prefer Grands Crus to run in the novice. I always think that whilst they are a novice, they should stick to novice company. That said, I absolutely think 16s+ for the Gold Cup is a cracking bet because I suspect they will be persuaded to run on the Friday and this horse looks top class.

Apologies if this has been mentioned above, but do the extra 3 fences and 2 furlongs make a difference in the Gold Cup for Grands Crus? The Gold Cup is also run on the much stiffer New Course, whereas the RSA takes place on the easier Old Course. I suspect the fences will make no difference, being a natural jumper, but whilst the horse has obviously demonstrated that he stays, in a typical Gold Cup he'd be running much longer than he has run before. He has so much speed to my eye, I just wonder whether he would be able to get home as well in the Gold Cup as he would in the RSA (particularly against known stayers such as Long Run). He will be running for approximately 20 - 30 more seconds on a stiffer track and jumping 3 more fences.

Any views?
Report brandyontherocks December 30, 2011 7:42 AM GMT
A quick one for people who are using the "stat" of a novice not winning the race since dawn run ( not quite a novice but as good as).  in 1986

The top two in the betting are long run, trying to be a back to back winner. Only best mate has achieved that in the last 40 years,   And kauto star trying to be the first 12 year old winner since what a myth in 1969.


That's if you use stats
Report buddeliea December 30, 2011 8:00 AM GMT
Good point RC re the extra distance of the Gold Cup.
When a horse goes into the unknown we dont know what will happen,added to that hes a novice running against seasoned Gold Cup horses in a Gold Cup.
Its possible he could be ok with all that,but he wont carry any of my money.

They have to be real careful with this one imo,this decision could be crucial for his career.
I am going to be controversial and say his best chance of victory at Chelt would be the Jewson,and thats where i would run him.Lower profile maybe,but less gruelling for sure,and much less likely to have too much effect on the horse.
Gold cup would be his to go for the next year.
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat December 30, 2011 8:55 AM GMT
ive not read pipeys comments today but il hazard a guess that grand cru will be given an entry in the argento and if he wins then they really have a decision to make.
Report R Carver December 30, 2011 10:18 AM GMT
Tweedle - I can see that happening too. Time for Rupert had that plan last yr I think.

Buddeleia - i would air on the side of caution as well, the horse could have many yrs at the top, so at this eaRly stage I think the easiest option would be best and I cannot believe that would be the Gold Cup.
Report Can't Catch Me December 30, 2011 11:39 AM GMT
I'm absolutely gutted. Have a small fortune on him at decent prices for the RSA.

Pocket talking aside, I still think its the wrong decision. How any owner would rather finish 3rd in a GC than win the RSA is completely beyond me. A Festival winner is the holy grail. Its also the stepping stone towards giving him the bets possible chnace of winning the big one in the future imo.

AS pointed out below, the extra distance is a huge factor. I felt he was coming to the end of his tether on Boxing Day and it was easy to make it look like he was just being pushed out. I just cant see him out staying the older more experienced horses in the GC. With another year under his belt however....

Good luck to them whatever they do, he looks a special horse.
Report strontium December 30, 2011 12:51 PM GMT
Brandy - I think that's a very fair point. Personally, however, I'd be less worried about the 2 stats you mention than the novice one and not worried at all by the stat relating to Long Run.

Yet it is an invitation to think outside of the top three in the betting. Without doing any analysis, Synchronised will probably be the best "stats horse" in 2012. I'd also point out that no horse in the field met all the key stats in 2011, and that seems possible for 2012, so stats users do have to think and be flexbible!
Report ReaseHeath December 30, 2011 1:33 PM GMT
Thinking outside the top three I'd be interested in Burton Port if I knew what was going on - speculative I know and you'd want to see him run fairly soon but finished in front of Long Run in RSA and his form over fences is 1111212.

Really tough and certain to stay but...
Report ReaseHeath December 30, 2011 6:22 PM GMT
just read in Racing Post that Burton Port has just started doing fast work, is expected to run mid-Feb and will have Gold Cup entry.
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat December 30, 2011 7:01 PM GMT
whos to say they wont entertain the ryanair for grand cru....
Report strontium December 30, 2011 7:12 PM GMT
Rease - good news and thanks for posting that update. Mid-Feb sounds like the Denman or the Irish Hennessey.
Report brandyontherocks December 30, 2011 8:35 PM GMT
i'm not a stats man either stront. 
like you say long run had the 6 year old stat to defy last year.  but how many 6 year olds turn up in the gold cup after winning the king george. back to back winners is the stat against him this year.  but i am more concerned by his lack of any rhythm in his runs this season

like wise with kauto star. no 12 year old has won the gold cup since 1968 but how many are on the back of a faultless victory in the george. and how many 12 year olds could hold a candle to the star

i always look to 2nd season chasers as a rule but they seem to be falling by the wayside this year.

i hope they run grand crus for added spice but like others i would be concerned over his stamina.  but he is worth the chance because if he does stay he is seriously talented.  he can always drop back in trip next year

not sure where the other dangers lay

still hoping quel esprit can throw his hat in the ring, but he needs to show he is up to the grade very soon

think there could be some value in this market yet and maybe a big priced winner
Report ReaseHeath December 30, 2011 9:00 PM GMT
one other thought on the 12yo Kauto - reading Timmy Murphy's book at the mo' - Nicholls trained See More Business to finish 3rd in Gold Cup at 12 - also saw quote from Nicholls the other day that they train Kauto as if he were 8!

Not too worried about him being 12 especially after what he has achieved at 11 3/4 but think he might get outstayed up the hill like last year.

On a different tack, Weird Al was staying on resolutely at end of Betfair and impressive in Charlie Hall - definitely not right last year.

I'd rather take a punt on Weird Al or Burton Port than any of the Irish contingent or last year's novices or indeed Synchronised.
Report tomdeane December 31, 2011 2:00 AM GMT
Just a quick point on the Grands Crus stamina issue.

I agree that it would be an unknown, of course, in the Gold Cup, and the amount of speed he shows is a little concerning. That said, when I am personally weighing up stamina issues with horses I only really take into account their perceived class and whether they can get into a rhythm. He wins on both of those counts, so I am happy to think he has every chance of getting home. If he pulls like a beast he will struggle but that would quite possibly be the case in any race - very few horses that fail to settle can win at the Festival, irrespective of whether they stay further than the race they run in.

As a purist (not taking into account the punting angle), 50% of me is desperate to see him go for Gold, and 50% of me is desperate to see him looked after in the weakest novice race at the meeting before stepping into the big leagues next year. It's a really tough decision for connections, no doubt about that,
Report resner not lesnar January 16, 2012 4:49 PM GMT
At last some hope (for those of us with RSA antepost bets) that Grands Crus may not contest the GC this year. David Pipe has said that the opposition will decide where Grands Crus goes.
Hinting that some of the others will need to fall by the wayside for him to run in the GC - one might assume then that if both Long Run & Kauto turn up he will possibly be looking elsewhere
Report Lance in France January 16, 2012 5:00 PM GMT
Also encouraging that he was considering a novice chase in Feb rather than the Argento as the next possible outing.
Report strontium January 16, 2012 5:05 PM GMT
Res - the vibe I get is that Pipe really doesn't want to go for the Gold Cup this year but (at least one of) the owners does. A battle of wills then.
Report BJG January 16, 2012 5:18 PM GMT
David Pipe says the opposition will decide Grands Crus' Cheltenham Festival target.

The talented grey is favourite for the RSA Chase for staying novices but he also has an intriguing entry in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The seven-year-old is unbeaten over fences this season and could tackle established chasers for the first time at Cheltenham at the end of the month.

Asked what factor would decide Grands Crus' Festival target, the Pond House handler told the Racing UK Podcast: "The opposition.

"Anything can happen to any horse unfortunately and, as we've seen in Cheltenham Festivals, some do fall by the wayside, so we have to keep our options open.

"We're looking at running him next in the Argento at the end of the month or a novice chase in February and we'll probably decide next week. He's in good form and all has gone well since Kempton."
Report thehoffisback January 17, 2012 3:06 PM GMT
this is not what i wanna read
Report Can't Catch Me January 17, 2012 4:18 PM GMT
I agree with you strontium.

Keeping everything crossed. This decision will make or break my festival ap book!
Report Can't Catch Me January 17, 2012 4:23 PM GMT
That quote has renewed my hope. I'm almost tempted to start going in again at 4.9.
Report sintonian January 17, 2012 4:30 PM GMT
Aint you already heavily leveraged CCM ?

I have to say, this is complete sh1t from Pipey. They wont run in the Gold Cup.
Report Can't Catch Me January 17, 2012 4:34 PM GMT
Yes I am balls deep Sint. But he never went low enough for me to want to lay any of my stake off. At 4.9, and in light of that quote, he looks a decent price again to me.
Report sintonian January 17, 2012 4:43 PM GMT
Maybe one year one of these trainers will put their money where their ego is and actually run one of their novices in Championship company. Until that happens i'd be inclined to disbelieve all of it. We have the SAME SH1T every single season and NONE of them line up.
Report Can't Catch Me January 17, 2012 4:48 PM GMT
To be fair to Pipe, I think Strontium has hit the nail on the head. The owner was quoted as saying he'd rather finish 3rd in a GC than win the RSA. Even if Pipe thinks (as I do) that is complete madness, he's in a difficult place if the owner puts his foot down.

It must be a nightmare having owners who think they know better than the trainer they have employed imo.
Report buddeliea January 17, 2012 5:11 PM GMT
I would be careful on that Catch me,if Last Instalment runs hes a massive threat imo.
Think i would be tempted to have a cover on him mate,if i were in your shoes.
Report wellchief January 17, 2012 5:14 PM GMT
Took the 5.6 yesterday for the RSA after reading Pipe's comments.

Its very risky, but too big a price to turn down imo.

Even before I put the bet on I'd rather have seen him in the RSA, one less opponent for Kauto and a better chance of Captain Chris being placed.
Report Can't Catch Me January 20, 2012 9:39 PM GMT
Into 4.5 already wellchief. Pleasing.... Very pleasing Love
Report FOYLESWAR January 20, 2012 9:53 PM GMT
ccmee happened last year pandoramas owner wanted him to run ,trainer noel meade didnt want to risk him on fastish ground , he ran has been on the easy list since .
Report Can't Catch Me January 20, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
Think the opposite is happening here though Foyles. Owner wants the GC and the trainer is making him see sense. At least I hope he is!
Report sintonian January 20, 2012 10:32 PM GMT
slightly different here aswell as Pando was not a novice and Meade want to run IF the going was decent.

I cant imagine GC will run in the GC for one second. Nothing to worry about imo.
Report wellchief January 23, 2012 4:52 PM GMT
Top prices for the Argento

Grands crus 5/2
Diamond Harry 11/2
Time for Rupert 11/2
Captain Chris 6/1
9/1 bar

I'm surprised TFR and DH are ahead of CC in the betting.

CC seems an ew bet to nothing for me at 6's
Report thehoffisback January 23, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
midnight chase a belting price imo
Report wellchief January 24, 2012 6:40 PM GMT
6's didn't last long on Captain Chris
Report strontium January 24, 2012 7:05 PM GMT
Fascinating race with not much to split the prinicipals (big doubts about track/experience/distance for all of them for me). Midnight Chase's 5th in the Gold Cup might be the best piece of stayers form on show but he's looked below that this season. I can understand the Tidal Bay backers running without a penalty on a track he loves. Carruthers looks each way value if he's an intended runner. Be great if they all stand their ground, which I hope they will because they all have somethign to prove and time is running out.
Report shockster January 24, 2012 7:55 PM GMT
Stront, I don't think Midnight Chase's run at Wetherby was bad at all.  He was giving the 2 who beat him over 2 stone and the winner has come out and won the Peter Marsh off a higher mark last week.  Add the fact that it was soft and it is well documented he prefers better going as well.  Dependent on ground he has the proven form and is the yardstick.  However, if he wins it suggests they will all probably fall short of the required ability to win a Gold Cup this year.
Report strontium January 24, 2012 8:01 PM GMT
Fair point Shock, I'd overlooked that. He might also be several lbs better at Chelteham. I think he represents a bit of value for Saturday and didn't mean to suggest otherwise (I was highlighting his Gold Cup form as a positive for Sat).

I'm sure your final comment is correct!
Report denman85 January 24, 2012 8:11 PM GMT
orginal post is ridiculous, how are they holes in the top 2? they streets ahead of the rest of the field, aslong as they dont fall or lose a leg nothing will get withing 15 l of them. fact. grand crus running in the gold cup has no bearing on the race at all, kauto and long run are miles clear
Report shockster January 24, 2012 8:12 PM GMT
Lump on the forecast Denman!!!!!!
Report denman85 January 24, 2012 8:14 PM GMT
ill be lumping on long run to be fair, although i think kauto will finish second!
Report denman85 January 24, 2012 8:16 PM GMT
shcokster didnt realise denman was running?Confused
Report shockster January 24, 2012 8:18 PM GMT
Excited
Report sintonian January 24, 2012 10:07 PM GMT
I've backed TFR on the basis he jumps great, will get the trip and loves Cheltenham. For me, this IS his Gold Cup. I think the trainer knows deep down he is not good enough for the big one so Saturday he should be primed imo.

On hurdles form both TFR and GC finished 2nd to Big Bucks, but BB absolutley cantered over TFR where as GC gave him a race, so there is no doubt who the better horse is imo. I am just not a fan of Novices running out of Noivce company and GC has also shown a fair bit of speed so not sure he really wants 3m1f around a demanding track just yet tbh. A cracking race in prospect though.
Report judorick January 24, 2012 10:25 PM GMT
I was studying the Argento and frankly I will surprised if the winner is not one of Grands Crus, Captain Chris or Tiday Bay. And of those I strongly favour Grands Crus but 2/1 is not too tempting!
Report wellchief January 25, 2012 5:10 PM GMT
David Pipe has yet to decide whether Grands Crus runs in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday.

The ante-post favourite will lay down a serious marker for the Betfred Gold Cup at Cheltenham if he can consolidate upon the fast gains he has already made over fences.

Pipe, however, remains guarded about whether intends to step his unbeaten novice chaser up against seasoned stars at the weekend.

He said: "It does look a hotter race than last year, and obviously there'll be a true-run gallop.

"I've got to speak to his owners, probably on Wednesday night or Thursday, and if he does run, Tom Scudamore will school him in the morning.

"He was a little bit keen at Kempton, but he's been really switched off so far this season.

"He's still switched off at the present moment but it doesn't take much to wind him up."

Still looks like there's plenty of hope for us RSA backers HappyHappy
Report hicksterthetrickster January 25, 2012 7:09 PM GMT
may be wrong.
However - If Pipe is not sure wether to run in Agento - I would say he is 70/30 not to run in gold cup.

Defo if doesn't go on saturday then its the RSA.

Yep still talking through my wallett!!!
Report wellchief January 25, 2012 7:28 PM GMT
If you're apprehensive about taking on Time for Rupert, Captain Chris, Diamond Harry and Midnight Chase you must be sh!tting yourself about taking on Kauto and Long Run!!!
Report FOYLESWAR January 25, 2012 7:54 PM GMT
just looked grans crus 36 lay in argento ? ...........whats going on .
Report willie the milk January 25, 2012 7:58 PM GMT
Won't likely be running
Report sintonian January 26, 2012 10:21 AM GMT
to lay is not the same as to back is it!
Report sintonian January 26, 2012 10:32 AM GMT
OUT of Argento.
Report bluebirdfan January 26, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
Surely RSA bound after this mornings news
Report stevo1 January 26, 2012 11:06 AM GMT
Yup,if they wont take on Captain Chris Time For Rupert, dont think they will run against Long Run and Kauto Star.
More bonfires burning around for Gold Cup .
Report sintonian January 26, 2012 11:33 AM GMT
It was never going to happen anyway. Every year a trainer gets a top class racehorse and they cant resist to talk about them taking on the best when they're still a novice. They should just put their egos away and stop talking nonsense.
Report buddeliea January 26, 2012 12:50 PM GMT
"A decision on which race he will take in at the Cheltenham Festival is still to be decided and will not be made until much nearer the time."

Well,they aint decided anything yet.

Really think they should forget the idea as well,but for some reason the possibility remains.
Maybe its one of these precautionary entries,like AF and PC in the Arkle.
Kauto and Long Run dont make it scenario.
Report thehoffisback January 26, 2012 4:06 PM GMT
what about master minded going into champion shase as a 5 yo and leaving his rivals in another county.    Shocked



what about katchit winning the champion hurdle as a 5yo       Shocked


i dont see a reason why grands crus cannot win the gold cup, i certainly wouldnt want to lay him. 

anyway i have never been impressed b y long runs jumping, if it werent for his engine he would never of won a king george and a gold cup.
i think sam and long run are due a fall and im laying him BIG in the gold cup in the win and place markets.

grands crus has the credentials to win and pipe is just being sneaky as usual, i think he will go there and win to be honest.

this is my take on the situation
Report Tatie Baron January 26, 2012 4:24 PM GMT
Don't see the relevance of citing Master Minded or Katchit. Neither were novices nor inexperienced, in fact Master Minded won The Queen Mother on his 9th chase start. Grands Crus is a proper novice and I personally think he'll end up in The RSA.
Report stevo1 January 26, 2012 4:35 PM GMT
Re Hoff Grand Crus Gold Cup backer worried, doesnt wont to take on 3rd 4th and 5th favs, so wont be going to take on Kauto and Long Run imo.
Report strontium January 26, 2012 6:36 PM GMT
I agree with most of you - it's hard to see him running in the GC having ducked out on this (unless soemthing bad happens to Kauto or Long Run).
Report misslimerick85 January 29, 2012 10:44 AM GMT
crazy to think about running him in the gold cup
Report OnTheSnaff February 2, 2012 7:59 PM GMT
josh apiafi @joshapiafi  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
No definitive Y/N fr Rodger on Grand Crus, but if I was a betting man(and I've been known to have a dabble) I'd say Gold Cup is a solid fav!
Report duffy January 1, 2013 3:54 AM GMT
Can we keep all the dynaste stuff on this one thread pleaseWink
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