Finians Rainbow - Arkle?

agreed steeple...they wanted a run though and the race cut up yet again so became a easy pot for him imo.

long run did it much better though even with a amateur onboard although recent events have shown him to be a fair animal......

time will tell if finians can do what he couldnt as in a kingmaker then a festival success....i'd be a layer after today myself as the price isnt a true reflection of his chance(not his ability..his chance.) and he has drifted today which shows how divided opinions are at this point unless bookies are just taking the chance to shorten others up on the back of todays race...oont miss a trick those f@ckers while we debate the relative merits of our chosen fancies.

Medermit: fast, accurate jumping at Sandown, one of the toughest courses a novice could face - very quick time: skates up in Arkle for me.

But it was not over 2 miles.

2 mile chases:

Medermit:
Aintree - won 3 horse race at 1/5f but blundered the 1st and mistake 3rd last
Huntingdon - refused to jump
Plumpton - won 7 horse race 6/4f but hit 4 out over 2m 1f

Captain Chris:
Cheltenham - second to Ghizao the Arkle fav over Arkle course&trip, SLife states Captain Chris jumped eye-catchingly well on his chasing debut
Newbury - again no jumping mistakes over 2m 2f again 2nd to Arkle fav Ghizao. SLife states it's worth noting that he burst onto the scene on good spring ground last season

nope we all know that but you think captain chris can reverse form as a maiden who only seems to stay on in his races at trips between 2 miles and 2m 4 f even accounting for his jumpng being nowhere near the horses who have beaten him and those he has yet to face...get real eric or are you fishing.?

Medermit jumped adequately first time out, and won, over 2M, Wessex King may prove to have been a decent opponent. Then something very odd happened, this can happen in horse racing. Medermit then won at Plumpton, jumping safely and getting back on track, over 2M 1F.

He then ran at Cheltenham and Sandown, the latter a Grade 1, jumping brilliantly for a novice. In both cases he cruised into the straight only for his stamina to ebb. Pedantic clinging to the 2M argument shows little understanding.

I have backed Finians at 20's and Medermit at 16's, but on recent evidence the latter looks a better bet.

eric the only blip was when he refused imo did u not watch the hells bay race when he was pulling chocs arms out all down the hill an jumped two out sat in his arm chair waiting to pounce he would of def won that day if race was over 2 miles no doubt choc would of kicked on earlier imo like he did at sandown he had the race won before 2 out

What baffles the most is that not only does Captain Chris visually give me the impression that he wants further than 2 Miles he obviously must give his trainer that impression also given that Hobbs has repeatedly stated he thinks the horse needs further.If connections did not have Wishful Thinking as such a strong candidate for the 2m4f race i don't think the arkle would be considered half as much for Captain Chris personally

Blimey never seen so much polarised opinion on a thread. We are all intrpreting form in different ways here so what works for one person may not for another. The thread was started way back in November as FR looked a cracking propsect who was over priced. A number of people shared that view and have taken confidence from 3 bloodless wins. FR may not win, he may not get around but many of us follow form lines, look for atributes in hurdlers stepping up to chases and reached the same conclusion.

The backers of FR will always be liable to the accusation of rose tinted spectactles...we can take that on the chin. What we cannot do though is influence connections of horses to enter in races. I do find some comments a bit juvenile with language like 'scared of'. If we were 'scared' we would hit lay and be spending our winnings. The facts are we are not scared...simple as that so lets all see what happens on the day. Antepost betting all is about value and trade offs so anyone in the UK with a voucher with 33 has a reason to smile. Don't stop believing and dont let the b******s get you down!!!   Long live FR

In both cases he cruised into the straight only for his stamina to ebb.

I doubt that - Medermit idles badly in front - had a lot in the locker at Sandown imo

eric, although I´ve always thought Captain Chris needed good ground Philip Hobbs said recently that he actually needs further and could need soft ground at Cheltenham if he is to be competitive in the Arkle - that isn´t very likely...

I was dissappointed with Finians Rainbow today and reckon Kilmurry could have made a race of it, even after making a bad blunder. Having said that I´m sure FR wouldn´t have been 100% today and holding him up certainly didn´t help his jumping. However imo FR will be better suited to flat tracks and Cheltenhams undulations and stiff fences may find out his novicey jumping.

Ghizao is still the one they all have to beat, though Medermit seems to be getting better with every race and a fast run Arkle could suit him perfectly.

a fast run Arkle will see medermit struggle with his jumping imo,and if they let FR go out in front thats what could well happen.
way i see it is should they decide to race from the front,a good round of jumping will see FR just run them ragged,however he has to jump better than yesterday for sure.I think a more positive ride will see him jumping a lot better and he should settle better being allowed to do what HE wants,rather than the jockey trying to tell him what to do as happened yesterday.
I agree with those who say he could fall,but then so could any of them,thats the nature of 2m chasing,as some of the great 2 milers will testify!!
Ghizao is probably the least likely to fail in the jumping department on what i have seen,but i really dont think he is the same class as FR.
So,front running and a good round of jumping will imo see FR win and fairly comfortably.
I now have to choose one as a saver in case i am wrong!!

As one who has no financial interest in the race, my thoughts are -
FR is a clumsy jumper who shows little sign of having the athleticism to become a top chaser. He neither stands off his fences and attacks them, nor fiddles them with any alacrity. There is also the point that, while he has been brought back in trip this season because his trainer and jockey felt he didn't quite see out the trip over 2m4f in top company, there is, as yet, no evidence that 2 miles in the Arkle will see him to best advantage.
The thought that, racing over the toughest track at the fastest speed he's ever had to go will transform a jumper who seems to be guessing his way around at present is, in my view, fanciful, though, if I'd backed him at 33/1, I'd be clinging onto that hope with fanatical fervour, as his supporters are. It's a weak Arkle this year, but the winner lies elsewhere.

yes cyclops....but you do have a lop-sided view!!

all about opinions cyclops,but i suggest you watch his first 2 runs if you think he cant jump

Just watched them myself.
if thats not jumping i give up.
in both races he went out in front,bowling along and jumping in the main really well and quiet bold at some.he  reached for a couple,1 in each race,he hit the top of 1,and was a bit guessy at 1 or 2(well he is a novice!!).Apart from that no problem.
Really think anyone who is concerned with his jumping should watch them 2 races.
Its made me more certain that he has to go out in front,thats what he wants,and they will imo get the best out of him by doing that.Plus he will also have BG back on board,which to me is very important for the horses chances.

There is an awful lot of pocket talk going on here,FR backers are forgiving yesterdays run and Medermits backers are forgiving his two runs, personally I like to see horses improving like Medermit, Realt Dubh and Ghizao, and if Eric could take his blinkers off and stop talking s##t it would make a great thread.

Medermits first two runs,

Buddeliea, his first two races were better rounds, granted, but still to my eyes, he jumps low quite often and lurches into his fences rather than measuring them.
He's really only beaten about four or five horses so far, and nothing that would have a prayer in an Arkle. I'm very fond of the horse, and thought he's win last year's Neptune, but he wouldn't be going to Cheltenham if he were mine. His jumping could improve over time, but I could see it disintegrating completely in the Arkle.

Inch,
i think one run can be forgiven if the horse has shown previously that different tactics provided much better performance.
of course if he repeats that yesterday he cant win an Arkle,no doubt,but they would have learnt from that yesterday and better to have learnt before the Arkle,rather than during it!!
2 runs out in front,he imo jumped well enough to run a big race in the Arkle,one run in behind he did not jump well enough to win the Arkle.
Connections will pick up on that i would think,and act accordingly on the day.

cyclops,
i take your points mate,we disagree about his jumping,no worries,but your point about what hes beat could apply to most of the fancied ones,i mean whats Medermit beat over 2m,and Ghizao too,unless you think Captain Chris is an Arkle horse(not for me).

we should all watch this together! I agree his jumping yesterday wasnt good...infact very average after 3 runs..BUT and a big but his first two were very good for a Novice???? We do hope better ground and Barry make a difference, the latter is the key for me although no axe to grind with Tinkler

The fear I have is that if Finian's does put in a clear round, from the front, he may just set it up for the likes of Medermit (some will also say Captain Chris, though i wonder if he needs a flat right handed track) who clealry stay well. I know Finians stays very well, but I am not sure how easy it will be to win the race from the front, assuming that is what they ask him to do, but a fast run race, which this looks likely to be, seems likely to me to play right into Medermit's hands (assuming Medermit's jumping holds up at the faster pace, which I think it will).

Think Finians may just get away with dropping slightly off Ghizao as he will be setting a v good pace imo. Whatever happens the call for me would be to put asteady but not strong pace on up front as too strong could play into the hands of Realt Dubh, Medermit and Captain Chris as mentioned above who will stay on well. Medermit wont have as good a kick as some and if he does manage to get around 2 miles then the stronger the pace the better for him.

Ghizao and Finians would be wise not to push on too strongly but to go steadily fast, hoping for a mistake from Medermit and keep some in the locker at the same time to kick late. Think Azertyuiop.

Not for the first time i disgree Eric. I see FR as setting a very fast pace and seeing some of the plodders fall too far behind. I am not convinced keeping some in the locker would be the best tactic from the evidence so far. The time of his first race was fantastic for a Novice and would gallop them in to the ground.

What if? You think these horses will be going into the race without a plan, I think you're wrong.

Fair enough maybe a fast pace for Finians however if he hasnt burnt off or got mistakes out of Captain Chris and Medermit by the home turn he will be a sitting duck with nothing left to attempt a late kick. Difficult to decide how best to ride Finians imo, that's what Henderson is paid for.

and why Barry will be on board! Every faith in him.

Just watch how Finians runs with Barry on board. He's by far the quickest novice over a fence this season. Yes he dives at one or two but be fair he's only had 3 runs over fences. I'm sure there will be loads of schooling between now and Cheltenham and I would go as far as saying I'll be suprised if he doesn't win it.

Golden Freeze/Carvills Hill

1992 Gold Cup

Cool Ground, The Fellow and a Bailey oss that escapes me at present(loved Kempton) filled the 1st three

Wouldn't give Finiian's latest outing a second thought if I hade backed him AP.

Typical of the man to leave plenty to work on axactly the same as he has done with Binocular.

Opposition is comparitvively poor, Medermit hasn't won a race yet at Cheltenham and horses that come under pressure like he laways sems to do in topcompany don't win Arkle's. Gizao is hard to access as his form may appear better than it actually is. Early season form doesn't laways work out and can be very flattering.

Finian's Rainbow a class act with a good engine seems the safest choice to me.

buddeliea, my feeling is that Medermit's win in the Scilly Isles was important because we know he has the speed for 2 miles (fancied to win last season's Champion Hurdle) and his recent victory shows he has the stamina. I'm not totally convinced by him, however, and have yet to make my mind up on the Arkle.

@Cyclops. It's the lack of speed is what has prevented him from winning 5 times at the Fetival.

I heard a few pundits saying how good a race the  Scilly Isles was yet nothing he beat has won anything of note.

At Cheltenham Hell's Bay sprinted away from Medermit going to the last and if hehadn't have made a bad mistake would have won by 3-4 lengths.

Medermit was always going well but you couldn't say he was hard on the steel nor could you say he was ever travelling better than Hell's Bay at any point.

Had that race been 2 miles I dare say Medermit may have beaten Hell's Bay but it the way they both traveeld it wouldn't have been by far.

When you consider Hell's Bay couldn't even keeep up with Finnian's Rainbow it pretty much indicates Medermit has a massive task on his hands.

This Finian's rainbow is one very specuial horse and Medermit is just plain ordinary by Arkle standards.

Fk me dont remind me of Carvill/Golden Freeze, my worst memory in racing walked off the track disgusted. He was the best I'd seen in my time following racing til then had backed him the Rehearsal, Welsh National antepost 4s, Gold Cup 10s.

Carvills destroyed Cool Ground giving him tons of weight in the Welsh National.

Docklands?

Correct Rondetto, Medermit lacks a 2 milers kick.

Destroyed everything in the Welsh giving weight. The most iconic NH memory for me, and Sir Peter could hardly describe it, such was his astonishment.

Chepstow is a funnt track and results there, especially on dire ground shouldn't be overestimated.

Not in the same league as Dessie, Jodami, Best Mate and Kauto - If he'd won a Hennesey giving lumps to good horses then fair enough but winning a Welsh National on bottomless ground 'does not a great horse make' irrespective of the weight imho.

u need a mixture of speed an stamina to win an arkle isnt not all about speed look at the likes of tidal bay an my way desolzen both wanted further in time

I understand what you say Uncle, but I personally have not seen many (if any) more devastating performances on a race track. I do not believe anything would have lived with him that day.

People who are suggesting that medermit does not have the required finishing kick to win an ankle should go back and look at last few winners. Would you say forpaddy, my way de solzan, tidal bay even sizing Europe were known for there finishing kick. A horse with a high cruising speed that  jumps economically and stays well is what will win the ankle.

and its name is ghizao.

Ya ghizao has got top form in the book but I'd be a worried if the ground comes up goodish.

in all fairness theres a good chance the ground will be g2s,soft in places..

It was good ground last year but no doubt it will be called good to soft.

Ya the word good will appear in the description

The one thing we can all agree on is the word soft will feature in ther going

Those horses didnt have a great finishing kick, there were no specialist 2 milers in those Arkle's that performed on the day. Think there are in this one.

I think you can't see past FR, maybe your right but he is co favourite of three so we all can't be wrong, but if he wins fair play to ya I personally think he will be found out coming up the hill.

a horse campaigned over further last season should get home all right i would think.

I know how he was campaigned last year and I also know he struggled to get home last year. My point is that the Arkle is run at thorough gallop from start to finish and you need to have plenty of guts and stamina to see it out, that's why I don't fancy FR.

FR going there on the back of a fencing confidence-buster makes him poor value imo

Not worried about the stamina as a backer but very concerned with the way he jumped. Probably does want to be out in front doing his own thing but can't see Henderson and Geraghty letting him loose from the tapes and certainly worried about him winging the fences that matter when push comes to shove. I think Medermit is a big danger.

The words good to soft would appear even if either you could barely see their ears or a group of Pik eys had done a tarmac job up the length of the home straight....

Absolutely no worries about his stamina over 2m.No worries either about his jumping should he be prominent from the start,not sure he will lead with Dan Breen in the race,but as long as he is allowed to run at his pace,see no problems.
Looks a real class act and the one horse in the race (at this stage) that could imo be a QM horse next year.

its very interesting to read everybodys views on here and the strength of their opinion about certain horses.Fwiw for the last few years ive tried to "make a book on the Arkle",tho a few people will arguethats not technically true.
at the start of the season il have a few horses in mind for the race ,after watching hurdling campaigns etc and il try to get matched at what i percieve value a/p prices.As you can imagine this has led to quite a few ****-ups[injuries,horses that couldnt jump,different race options and just bad selections]but i enjoy it.It gives me something to look forward to during the flat season!
Anyhow,the aim is to try and have a "green screen"when the arkle field lines up.
This ,i feel ,enables me to view this field without getting biased[as if??!]
Imo finians has enourmous potential ,is very scopey and will stay well enough up the hill but i feel his jumping will be tested like it hasnt so far,and he doesnt jump well enough to be my idea of the winner.
Medermit-i put a line through him after his debut at lpool and then huntingdon.However the quickest way to the poorhouse is to get a fixed opinion and become stubborn.I have had to concede that his last two runs have brought about a great improvement in his jumping.My one concern is that i feel he jumps over the fences ,up and over ,where he may lose ground to a true 2miler who may just brush thru the top ,gaining half a length at the fences.
Ghizao-everyones cribbing his hurdles rating saying its too low for an arkle winner,and its a low rating .His first run where kilmurray[rip] ran him ragged had me thinking he was no good.Nicholls immediatley said he would beat the winner next time as Ghizao would improve greatly.To be fair he has improved ,winning around chelt and his jumping displays have been the best ive seen this season.Will go there fresh and have gained vital course experience must be a major player.Will soft ground be important to his chance?
Captain chris-while theres no doubt hes a cracking horse im not keen on a horse who jumps so markedly rh on a lh track,i feel he could be a punchestown[rh ]horse
Realt dubh-won 2grade ones already..bit contentious i think ,how many grade 1 nov chases have been run in england this season?Not cribbing his performances mind,he jumps well ,stays and will battle,i just dont think hes good enough.I was keener on flat out who fell in the irish arkle that realt dubh won.
Surfing-trainer says he wont run if finians runs .
nadiya de la vega-not good enough
DAN breen-good round of jumping until nearly uprooting the last,wouldnt imagine he,d be good enough in a normal year but if anyone can improve a horse enough itl be pipe.
Williams wishes-could yet be a player at a price,improving but still has too.needs watched closely.

If you have read this and if it sounds self-indulgent im sorry,just rambling on.my thoughts are no better than anyone elses...after all my initial fancies were..loosen my load,arvika legionnaire,flat out  etc.Best wishes to the connections of horses who are/were ruled out and i hope they return fit and well.

I read it ftm.

I guess from all your views if you had to side with one horse from the current line-up it would be Ghizao.

He'd be my pick now also and I have him covered along with FR. Royal Charm was my loser in the race.

if i had to choose id choose gizao .
Royal charm looked a player even when he fell fto.just looks slow now doesnt he?
i delibrately omitted starluck until hes entered.
i forgot to mention i fancied notus dltour /ronaldo des mottes early,still think they should have went chasing

One horse which does interetst me is Tullamore Dew as look very good value on his Medermit form line and conceding weight to Mamlook. Anytone views o if the Jewson more likely?

I was a tad nervous when Starluck was going chasing but today didnt look that impressive to me. The top 3 in the betting still look correct to me

what was wrong with that today?

Just didnt think he jumped with authority and showed the class over the bigger obstacles that you need. It is really hard to judge on one run and like the bookies there are very polarised views from us all today. A cracking prospect but just not for me...each to his own and good luck if you back him. It is a wide open Arkle but not one for my shortlist...

i dont think he will run anyway,but his jumping today was ok imo,and were he to repeat that in the Arkle he would not be far away imo.
looks to me though that they will go elsewhere with him after giving him more experience,with a view to next season.

Finians Rainbow (4) , Medermit (4) , Ghizao (5) , Realt Dubh (10) , Starluck (12) , Captain Chris (15) , Dan Breen (33) , Mikael DHaguenet (33) , Rock Noir (33) , Noble Prince (35) , Bellvano (40) , Giorgio Quercus (49) , Blazing Tempo (50) , Stagecoach Pearl (66) , Williams Wishes (66) , West With The Wind (100) , Tullamore Dew (103) , Cadoudalas (119) , Pepe Simo (119) , Phidippides (150)  - Others 224 or more

Noted Tullamore heading elsewhere but one to watch if Medermit does run well....

BJG latest blog.....

Friday was one of those spring mornings that you dream about in the depths of winter. It was sharp but sunny and the horses were at the top of their game on the schooling ground.

BARROWS BIG GUNS ALL COMING TO THE BOIL

FINIAN'S RAINBOW was very good and OSCAR WHISKY schooled up well and felt great - the latter and BINOCULAR benefited from their away day at Kempton on Monday


COME ON FINIANS!!!!!!!!!!!

Paid a nice complement by Tail of the Banks good run at Newbury this afternoon.

If FINIANS gets his jumping sorted from outset and Barry gets him settled, think he will simply  be too fast for staying on Medermit up the hill.

yes another form boost for FR.albeit over 2m4f.

Tail Of The Bank would have won if it got the inside rail as well IMO and it's a very well thought of horse. Warwick was far too tight for him though as he's a galloper. From what I can see of it Finians hasn't beaten a lot but he's beaten some very good horses.

Really???

Struggle to see how its a boost, dont think its a let down, but nothing more personally.

TOTB off 133 over 4f further than Warwick (i believe)... cant see how thats a boost.

Horse got to within an eased down Finians 11l over an inadequate trip is how I read it. Think we learnt nothing yesterday personally.

There is not much to go on is there. Every race Finians has been entered in trainers have dodged the races. But the horses that are coming out of the races are doing well. Don't forget Tail Of The Bank beat Surfing who has form that ties in with Captain Chris and Ghizao over 2 miles. And if your gona start talking about 2 miles 4 it's the only trip Medermit has even looked comfortable over. It may not be a huge form boost but it's nice to see horses running very good races that have finished in behind.

Good points there.
Funny how people have a go at FR form when beating horses that stay further,yet use the same argument to big up Medermit!!

FR form over fences is at 2m,Medermits best form over fences is 2 and half.
the Arkle is a 2m race.
Medermit backers will say it helps to stay a bit further to win an Arkle,and they may have a point,but FR stayed a bit further over hurdles.
If you look at both horses this season over the Arkle distance you will see that FR comes out better.

I cannot personally have FR, i am convinced KILMURRY was going to make him ask a few questions before becoming injured lto and as kilmurry is no mug, i wouldn't have thought he was up to arkle standard though admittedly was as short as 32 on here for it at one stage in the winter.

I am a GHIZAO/MEDERMIT man, have to having backed them at 12s and 6s respectively.

Good luck though to all who play or have played!

personally think its between FR and Realt Dubh,with Dan Breen an interesting outsider.

Reckon one of us will have the winner Seathestars

I am with you there with Dan Breen bud, and was of the thinking about having a small saver on realt dubh before his last run. That kinda put me off a bit. He would not have beaten flat out if that one had stood up. Also he seems to have a preference for soft ground. Not for me mate.

I do think the race will cut up quite a lot though, cannot see there being more than 8 runners, and if more they will be made up of 100/1ers trying to see a bit of that prize money and to give their owners a day out. So am guessing maybe i should play him at 9s and dan breen at 20s anyways as their surely gonna be very much shorter if turning up! With the exception of FR i could end up with a less than 50% book and backed all the possible winners/runners of this race (if im right [smiley:crazy])

you may be right re Flat out,but then to be fair he was being touted as having a good chance in the Arkle at the time.
Not easy with these novices who should all be improving,some quicker than others!!
Makes it even more tricky when their dont seem to be any real outstanding form from any one horse.

Notice the Rp tommorow...FR?

CHELTENHAM INSIGHT: Barry Geraghty rates one of his festival rides up there with an all-time great. Find out who it is in  an unmissable interview with Steve Dennis

Big Zeb imo

More I think about it I just keep coming back to Ghizao now. Trainers opinion os totally different to the Owners.

Sintonian, I agree re. Hizao being a live danger. It looks the the top 3 in the betting have the best form by some distance

the problem for me mate is that im on at 33/1 like yourself(layed off at 6), but for some reason cant see him winning. You get the feeling a fall is around the corner but I sincerly hope not.

Ghizao is simply the best jumper in the race imo which is why im on him aswell, but it's actually very competitive despite some people saying it is a weak renewal.

Ruby Walsh on RUK tomorrow,fwiw.

Notice the Rp tommorow...FR?

CHELTENHAM INSIGHT: Barry Geraghty rates one of his festival rides up there with an all-time great. Find out who it is in  an unmissable interview with Steve Dennis

Big Zeb going for second champion chase would equal Moscow etc etc

BIG ZEB is no Moscow Flyer.

The best since though!!

Sintonian you could be right and not laying off may be greedy but if the wife gets a new bathroom i can have as much fun as i like!! still resisting the lay button

So near and yet so far

Traded at 1.5 in running

Been saying all week the 2 lays of the meeting were Cue Card and Medermit and the 2 best bets were Spirit Son and Finian's Rainbow.

Hate being smart and stupid in the same races

Yep,so near yet so fair,but at least we were on the 2m chaser,unlike Medermit backers.

Epic thread, great to read back and see who the shrewdies are

Nothing like blowing your own trumpet[;)] Is this horse going to Aintree?

What are you saying? All after-timing was it or are you being 'British'?

Oh take a joke mate FFS. After all you are a shrewdie

It wasnt a joke it was begrudging but never mind carry on as normal.

Why would it be begrudging? It didnt win the race did it? Just relax the world doesnt revolve around you my little sugar puff

begrudging?

Captain Chris did win the race sj.