New Posts For Thread: Don Poli if he runs in RSAhttps://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsaWould have to defy following stats :A 6yo when 7yo or 8yo have won 18 of last 2120 of last 21 ran 3 or more times over fences - he has ran twiceThe last 50 ran in the same calendar year - he last ran in December6/1??Looking at betting RSA going to take some winning this year. Far less than the Arkle, guess its the way the cards fall some years.https://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543665939#543665939Looking at betting RSA going to take some winning this year. Far less than the Arkle, guess its the way the cards fall some years.Sun, 22 Feb 2015 15:46:35 -0600could be pal. Although I remember thinking the same about Grand Crus about 3 years ago, never won another race , from what I recall.https://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543665923#543665923could be pal. Although I remember thinking the same about Grand Crus about 3 years ago, never won another race , from what I recall.Sun, 22 Feb 2015 15:45:56 -0600Howdi do ever get the feeling when seeing a horse win,and you think theatre's horse,jumps brilliantly,travels,and finds,this will win whatever race it goes for,then all roads for the gold cup next year !https://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543665869#543665869Howdi do ever get the feeling when seeing a horse win,and you think theatre's horse,jumps brilliantly,travels,and finds,this will win whatever race it goes for,then all roads for the gold cup next year !Sun, 22 Feb 2015 15:43:29 -0600All pre cheltenham books ive read, they all fancy Poli.https://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543665811#543665811All pre cheltenham books ive read, they all fancy Poli.Sun, 22 Feb 2015 15:39:35 -0600What I would add to Ormonde's excellent initial post about the use (and misuse) of stats is that statisticians would still consider sample sizes as small as the ones we are using as vastly inadequate to support black and white ideas we use to make dehttps://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543662297#543662297What I would add to Ormonde's excellent initial post about the use (and misuse) of stats is that statisticians would still consider sample sizes as small as the ones we are using as vastly inadequate to support black and white ideas we use to make deSun, 22 Feb 2015 11:38:47 -0600After the Gold Cup the George is the second most important steeplechase of the season ran in England. This will obviously attract the highest chasers around so of course it's a key race looking towards the Gold Cup. The other option for a mid seasonhttps://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543657715#543657715After the Gold Cup the George is the second most important steeplechase of the season ran in England. This will obviously attract the highest chasers around so of course it's a key race looking towards the Gold Cup. The other option for a mid seasonSun, 22 Feb 2015 05:47:51 -0600Of the last 19 individual winners of the King George going back to 1980, 2 never ran in the Gold Cup and 9 of the remaining 17 actually won it, with a further 3 placing second (and one of the remainder won an RSA and a King George). That's a pretty ihttps://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543656405#543656405Of the last 19 individual winners of the King George going back to 1980, 2 never ran in the Gold Cup and 9 of the remaining 17 actually won it, with a further 3 placing second (and one of the remainder won an RSA and a King George). That's a pretty iSun, 22 Feb 2015 02:32:02 -0600Just another quick point I'd like to make is around The Christmas Hurdle and the Adonis.Recent Adonis winners have an excellent record in the Triumph and the Christmas Hurdle winners like MTOY (plus TNO),Binocular, Darlan, Go Native etc all clearly hhttps://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543656359#543656359Just another quick point I'd like to make is around The Christmas Hurdle and the Adonis.Recent Adonis winners have an excellent record in the Triumph and the Christmas Hurdle winners like MTOY (plus TNO),Binocular, Darlan, Go Native etc all clearly hSun, 22 Feb 2015 02:19:10 -06002 excellent posts.I agree with parts of both posts to be honest.I like to judge each race on its merits, not on the name of the race. If a novice wins a Feltham and has already ran well at Cheltenham, then I see no reason why the Feltham would be a nhttps://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543656313#5436563132 excellent posts.I agree with parts of both posts to be honest.I like to judge each race on its merits, not on the name of the race. If a novice wins a Feltham and has already ran well at Cheltenham, then I see no reason why the Feltham would be a nSun, 22 Feb 2015 02:05:37 -0600Its obviously not impossible to win the KG and GC in the same season as some have done it,but an awful lot have not.Theres also been a fair few Gold Cup winners that would never have got anywhere near winning a KG imo.And a fair few KG winners that hhttps://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/30442659/don-poli-if-he-runs-in-rsa?post_id=543656203#543656203Its obviously not impossible to win the KG and GC in the same season as some have done it,but an awful lot have not.Theres also been a fair few Gold Cup winners that would never have got anywhere near winning a KG imo.And a fair few KG winners that hSun, 22 Feb 2015 01:38:01 -0600