McDonnell v Vargas

Starting in the next hour or so. On the face of it, Vargas is quicker, faster, more skilled and should be too good for the limited and inexperienced McDonnell. However, Vargas's record is a bit padded and he has never fought anyone really top-notch, and his power is overrated. Neither of theese fighters have a really hard punch, but both have plenty of stamina. this leads me to believe that the fight will go the distance (some bookies were offering evens). Mcdonnell has been pushed up the ranks very quickly at an advanced age, trying to emulate his brother, and has improved a lot since he was outboxed by leigh Wood 3 years ago, before catching up with the badly flagging Wood in the later rounds, winning the British title in the process. The super bantamweight division is pretty weak and Vargas has manged to avoid any of the better ones, and for this reason I give McDonnell a chance. If he can drag Vargas into the later rounds, with the crowd behind him, he could get a surprise result. I was caught out the last time I predicted a "hometown special" or dodgy draw in a Hearn promotion fight, but this time, It could be a possibilty, as vargas is not as good as Linares, who beat Crolla so easily that a biased decision was never a realistic possibilty. I think that 1.59 is a decent price for vargas, but I will consider laying him when hsi price goes down, as I think it will in the early rounds when his superior speed and skill become apparent. It is a risk, because McDonnell might find himself out of his depth a bit. But I have a feeling that McDonnell will come on strong in the later rounds when his guts and stamina will serve him well. So if vargas' price goes as low as 1.25 or so, he could be worth laying, as McDonnell has great stamina and will respond to the encouragement of the crowd. And the result could be a lot closer than some people think. Might be worth a small punt on the draw.