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12 Sep 13 15:12
Date Joined: 25 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 2,293 | Blogger: pulio's blog
Danny garcia to beat Matthysee 5/2
- garcia hits just as hard, seems to have a good chin and is a very good counter puncher. he also has won decisions and has good skills. he was good enough to catch khan and morales. did better against their common opponent Judah. Outright at 5/2 is value as i would have him a slight fav. matthysse has power and is good. this is a tight fight, which makes 5/2 value. I think matthysse may also have a good chin and may not be as aggressive if he takes a flush left hook early from garcia so this could go the distance, which is why 5/2 outright looks good. i like garcia because he is more than happy to throw punches when the opponent is throwing and these counter punches are what have been causing knockouts and putting opponents into a shell and that could happen here.

Boxing - Mayweather to beat Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ 6/1
- mayweather is very accurate and i expect him to land some flush shots during the fight. i respect canelos defense and head movement but i still think he will be taking flush punches. little jose cotto had him hurt badly so i have question marks over his chin, especially having to drain 2 more pounds. this is a guy that weighs around 18 pounds higher than 154 on fight night. also i think canelo will be losing the fight coming into the last rounds and as a young mexican lion, with his corner screaming at him to put it all on the line, on mexican independance day, i see him giving a huge effort and taking chances if he is losing, and he could be walked onto a check hook or walk into a straight right hand. if his stamina, which looks to be questionable, doesn't hold out and mayweather can sense that he is tiring, i can see floyd putting up a high guard and walking him down, as he did vs judah, mitchell and corley, to name a few. at 6/1 i think this is value. mosley has said they both hit just as hard as each other. i expect mayweather to cruise to a points win but i would have the stoppage at around 7/2 max so i will happily take 6/1.
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Report alabaster crashes down September 12, 2013 7:41 PM BST
agree there's a bit of value in the floyd stoppage but like many I think Matthysse will just blast through the overrated Garcia. Keeping my bets to a minimum this weekend though, just going to enjoy the action.

LMM r1-6 & Floyd r7-12 double my only bet so far for a bit of fun.
Report RBoyd86 September 12, 2013 11:41 PM BST
I read your opinions pulio and tbh i think youve made a great argument there for the mayweather ko and got me thinking abit.

As alabaster says i think matthysse will ruin garcia who i think is overrated as well as his power.

Looking further at the card surely 4-9 cano vs theopane is huge, theopane got beat by the english lad who is useless, cano is solid very solid and cant see how he doesnt win this.

I love carlos molina and think ishe smith aint great at all ( his last fight with k9 WORST EVER) but im worried he might get robbed on the cards AGAIN.
Report Ericali September 13, 2013 7:55 AM BST
I agree with most what you said on the Garica Vs Matthysee fight. Matthysee can lose on the scorecards as evidenced by Judah & Alexander losses. I know both were hotly desputed, but if he doesnt get you out of there early does he lose more than a touch of power like Billy-Joe does in his fights? Therefore Matthysee 1-6 TKO & Garcia on points @ 6/1 is my bets.

Have to go with the opposite what you said on the Mayweather fight. I think this goes to Pts & Floyd (probably) wins.... but with it being Mexican Independance weekend & the crowd going wild every time Canelo lands a punch, i think theres more than enough value in going with Canelo to eek out a close Pts victory at 13/2.

Cant wait... Cool
Report sj September 13, 2013 3:29 PM BST
I just cant have Garcia. The 2nd Morales shot was great, but I think the power is overated. Couldnt finish washed up Nate Campbell Morales 1st time round Kendall Holt. Yeah fair play was a good KO of Khan. But he was already getting his face chewed up and was being dominanted.
Good luck to everyone this weekend
Report Duketurtle September 13, 2013 7:10 PM BST
Think Garcia has got suspect punch durability and it gets seriously exposed here tomorrow.
Report sj September 13, 2013 8:07 PM BST
Ericali. You should check out the "Final judgment market from Ladbrokes very big prices Floyd UD apart
Report tobermory September 14, 2013 12:47 AM BST
I like both these bets
Report sj September 14, 2013 1:28 AM BST
Extremely rare for Floyd to go for the KO. Mosley was on the hook for an age the same with JMM and Guerrero. You've got to walk onto a hell of a lot before Floyd goes for it.
He'll potshot and hold for at least 6
Report Duketurtle September 14, 2013 1:31 AM BST
Can't trust those UD decisions in boxing's current climate SJ, every chance at least one judge is a Canelo card if it's remotely competitive. With him being 22 and such a big Mexican star, there is a chance of a Pac-Bradley situation I reckon.

Lucas-Floyd double at over evens with the Germans looks good to me though. I'll be covering the draw once Lucas hopefully gets the job done.
Report sj September 14, 2013 1:34 AM BST
Exactly Duke that's why I've backed the other decisions at big prices mate
Report sj September 14, 2013 1:35 AM BST
* Split's majority draw and Saul UD. Small stakes but 12's 18's 20' 40's 28's 16's
Report Them Bones September 14, 2013 4:10 AM BST
My bets this week...

I've gone for all the favorites (by any method. Not intentionally, it just happened to end up that way.

I've already won on Shawn Porter. & got my money back on Badou Jack because of the draw (, yes Badou was the favorite when i placed my bet on him).

Tomorrow's bets...

Kid Galahad.

& big bets on especially Mathysse, and also a big bet on Floyd.

Whatever happens tomorrow, it should be one hell of a show. This is certainly the biggest card in my relatively short time as a boxing fan.

Good luck to all with their bets!
Report Ericali September 14, 2013 10:20 AM BST
Cheers for the heads up Sj. Like the look of both the splits, at 11/1 & 18/1 - Think ill be playing a bit of them. Tongue Out
Report sj September 14, 2013 1:19 PM BST
No worries mate
Report Jimmy Diamond September 14, 2013 7:55 PM BST
Done Galahad and Matthysee win double at evens. Think Galahad might stop Dickens as there seems to have been a bit more spite in his work latelly, but im not trying to get clever, the win will do.
Mattyse's confidence must be sky high after the last year or so, wondering how Garcia will approach this fight-he doesnt have the technical ability to stand off on the back foot and look good enough to beat a pumped up Lucas who will surelly come forward.

Is Garcia the big banger he's made out to be? Cant fault the Morales finisher but we cant read a lot into the Khan shot because he gets blown over. Mattyse to win in 1-6 is my hunch but again......ive played it safe.

Ive played fight not to go the distance at 11/4 in the big one. Im probably going to eat my words here later but has what Alvarez done really been that impressive? Didnt get Hatton out of there, struggled to shift Rhodes and dropped and in big trouble against Jose Cotto.....fair enough they were a while ago and he's learnt a lot since then but i really believe there's an element of overhype sourounding him. The Trout scoring was scandalous, one maybe two rounds in that fight either fighter.
PBF doesnt seem interested in knockouts anymore but Canelo has to be the aggressor here and could get caught coming in, Floyd might just know too much. On the other hand Canelo can bang and it only takes one shot. Add to this cuts and any other variables that could occur and 11/4 seems reasonable.

Whats the opinion on the Cano-Theophane fight? Cano odds on the drift, you would think he'd have too much for Ashley but the fact Theophane is money team is putting me off.

Also, speaking of Khan.............5/6 Alexander to beat him..............anyone else think that is massive? I think Khan is finished and shot at the top level, seriously considering a big big bet on DA here.
Report sj September 14, 2013 8:13 PM BST
Keep the Devon stuff quiet Wink Lovely way to round off the year Cool
Report RBoyd86 September 14, 2013 8:15 PM BST
JIMMY- I think khan has lost a lot of his speed, comapare the handspeed against garcia to his last fight against diaz. I dont think hes the same fighter so in my opinion i agree re DA.

tonight its all about the acca for me.

Kid galahad aka barry, surely a class above this kid? agree hes got a bit more bout his work lately to power wise. Love it when they bring out the kids "strong, works hrd line" then u look at his record 5kos in 16 for jazza so not exactly a fearful puncher.

Cano- He beat paulie ( and i needed paulie for a meaty acca) he had a gd solid go with mosley and had him in trouble, mosleys power just held hi off, theopanes power wont. Theopane lost to hamilton. Gd story and all but no gd gd boxer shud be beat by hamilton. I saw the drift and wud be tempted to top up.

Molina- Thi guys a class act pure and simple, wud give a lot of the top names headaches. Ishe smith somehow has a BELT, his fight vs k9 was one of the worst ive seen. Molina shud be far to good however am worried this is the one where we may get dodgy score cards. molina has a history of being robbed.

Matthysse- MONSTER enough said. Danny no matter how gd/bad he fights wont be able to take constant onslaught and at some point will be got to. ( actually think his best chance may be to actually try to get alot of respect early but then again thats like sticking ure head in a lions mouth)


Floyd- Foyd wins pure and simple- I was on the side that thought SA looked weight drained, but wether thats correct or not he shud still get it done.

Looks to simple to me and something will go wrong somewhere but ... Thats how i see it
Report alabaster crashes down September 14, 2013 8:39 PM BST
think the draw is worth a play in all the US fights bar Mattyhsse too, political interests at play in all three fights.
Report RBoyd86 September 14, 2013 8:51 PM BST
Am i missing something? typical english bollox when it comes to refin fights. Clear heads caused that , awful cut, no dcotor called and then scored a ko JOKE . owe yea not to mention comms mention nythingbout it being a **** up
Report Jimmy Diamond September 14, 2013 9:13 PM BST
Haha Boyd, remember the Smith/Bundrage fight too - jees it was awfull, nearly as bad as Banks Mitchell 2.

Molina is way way way too short considering his history. Smith's poor but this could be anything. Definite no bet.
Report RBoyd86 September 14, 2013 10:09 PM BST
i agree thats the one in the acca im worried about, he could get totally jobbed.
Report sj September 14, 2013 10:32 PM BST
Good start to the night. Had hughie fury rnds 1-4 and 1-2. Kid Galahad rnds 7-9 and 10-12
Report RBoyd86 September 14, 2013 11:11 PM BST
well done
Report Duketurtle September 15, 2013 12:26 AM BST
Jimmy- Hands could be an issue for the knockout. He defo wants it here I reckon but with only a few months lay off, how will the mitts hold up?
Report RBoyd86 September 15, 2013 1:59 AM BST
and finally were here!!! LOL
Report Jimmy Diamond September 15, 2013 4:04 AM BST
you referring to DA's hands Duke mate? Broke his right against Purdy back in April didnt he?

Didnt read too much afterwards about how bad an injury it was but yeah, he could be concerned about it. I just think Khan's gone, no way back for him to the top level for me unless he picks a really cheap world title up. The thing with Khan is that he seems to be in a drama every fight - its just uncomfortable to watch. I honestly believe he should have retired after the Garcia fight, Molina had him allover last time. The blueprint is there on how to beat him (just walk through him). You wouldnt want him in with Garcia again to be honest nevermind Lucas.

All this talk of going upto welter is madness.
Report sj September 15, 2013 5:04 AM BST
Great shout Pulio
Report RBoyd86 September 15, 2013 5:18 AM BST
yea well done pulio
Report sj September 15, 2013 6:28 AM BST
OI OI Majority decision 20-1
Report tobermory September 15, 2013 6:35 AM BST
wd Sj , maybe got a bit lucky with that judge though Wink
Report Jimmy Diamond September 15, 2013 6:35 AM BST
ha, well done sj..............u lucky lucky man!! ha
Report pulio September 15, 2013 6:43 AM BST
happy with the garcia result. chin of granite btw. that flush shot that dislodged his mouthpiece was an absolute cracker and would have sent most of the 140 pound division to the canvas and possibly to the ambulance as well. i thought matthysse was a bit flattered by the demolition of peterson and garcias power and skills were good enough.

the floyd fight went pretty much like i thought. floyd as usual just cruising to a decision.. he'd much rather win a decision without taking risks than go for the KO. canelo looked like he could take the punches though and his stamina held out so i was wrong there. it was a speculative bet in a way. he can come back. mayweather is just incredibly difficult to beat. he gets credit for winning rounds even when he's not throwing punches just because of his movement and defensive work. hes scoring points when he makes the other guy miss.

and well done on the md punts. i should have had some on those decision bets.
Report sj September 15, 2013 7:06 AM BST
Extremely lucky. But that was the reason for putting it on. Poor judging lately
Report pulio September 15, 2013 7:12 AM BST
Well you can always trust the judges in boxing to put up weird scorecards. good betting strategy in today's boxing climate tbh. klitschko vs povetkin might be worth a dabble on those kinds of bets
Report sj September 15, 2013 7:20 AM BST
Yeah good shout Pulio. Oscar and Golden Boy were so desperate for a Canelo victory thought it was worth it as could see it going 12. Shoddy scoring across all 4 fights
Report pulio September 15, 2013 7:40 AM BST
yeah if garcia didnt drop lucas and give himself that round he would have drawn, depending on how the judges scored it because i think two judges just had him 2 points up. if they gave it 10-8, then thats probably a 3 point swing since it might have been 10-9 matthysse otherwise so he might have actually lost without that knockdown

definitely a strategy to look at in some fights. especially in britain where the home fighter gets massive help on the scorecards as we know. its shocking thinking back to when brodie got robbed in britain. that must be the only time a brit fighter got robbed in britain
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