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Johnny_Mustang
18 Oct 18 21:14
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Date Joined: 18 Feb 07
| Topic/replies: 13,695 | Blogger: Johnny_Mustang's blog
National Stud quick off the blocks with a hike for Gregorian.

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Replies: 98
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 18 Oct 18 22:16
Well with 3 runners rated over 80 and a yearling average at a guess of about 15k he's flying - I reckon Dubawi had better look out. Is Gregorian now private JohnnyM?
I f@@@ing despair.
By:
Johnny_Mustang
When: 19 Oct 18 08:53
If you think a stallion with zero stakes winners and a 2018 yearling average of £12K doesn't merit a price hike almost double that of last year then I'm sorry, the game's just not for you.
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 19 Oct 18 09:21
Indeed when I'm finished in December I fear the bank manager is going to refer me to your advice!
By:
truehoncho
When: 19 Oct 18 10:09
I know I am always moaning about stallion fees but how can these moderate stallions command such prices?
By:
Johnny_Mustang
When: 19 Oct 18 10:30
And dropping Aclaim by 3K is curious too.
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 19 Oct 18 12:55
Yes. &Yes.

When you look at this weeks sales which are the strongest sales there are and you see the HUNDREDS of yearlings selling below the price of the stud fee even before you tot up those that scraped past that barometer but were still big losers, well it really does beggar belief.

Aclaim was too much last year but he filled because he was one of a limited number fitting that profile that we all like commercially. Without doubt he needed a readjustment this year and even though I shelled out the full whack I accept that.

25% is too much though.
By:
Wilycayote
When: 27 Oct 18 18:37
What price Kingman next season? (FYI, I can’t afford him anyway!)

Plus, will iffraaj come down in price this year? Trying to find a “proven sire” option that might just be in my reach.
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 27 Oct 18 20:52
I am not sure Kingman should go up by much, after all he is 55k and that's a lot of money when he has only done as well as a horse of his opportunity could be expected. They aren't looking too robust either but I daresay they will feel they have to go up to promote him as the real deal.
Iffraaj is deffo on the cold list and should drop considerably in my view but he occupies that twilight world as a darling of Rabbah and he hoovers up all of those connection's mares that don't get into Dubawi. Maybe they'll all go to Coolmore now?!
What about Dark Angel?
By his standards a shocking set of 2yo's. His sales have 'suffered' accordingly and his 3 early sons at stud have disappointed.
By:
Formtwist
When: 27 Oct 18 21:07
Entirely agree PotM. Which begs the question of the fee Darley dare set for Harry not exactly an Angel.
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 27 Oct 18 21:17
Considerably less than if they'd gone last year for sure. Still that's racing. Up down up down, then down again!
By:
truehoncho
When: 28 Oct 18 10:06
I haven't got much to add other than to agree about DA, his sons are not cutting it. The market is very flat for yearlings and it is about time stallion fees reflected it. The lower end need to start offering more incentives to the breeder. All 3/4th year stallions should be 1/2 first season price and ffr for a start.
By:
Wilycayote
When: 28 Oct 18 11:51
all good points above

can anyone clever solve my "affordable proven stallion" conundrum in UK? (where are the new Bahamian Bounty / Compton Places?)
By:
roadrunner46
When: 28 Oct 18 12:27
with gutaifan being a precocious 2yo just like his sire, will be expecting lot better from this son next season, as always dependant on the matings, if they are getting low quality mares every yearCrazy
By:
Formtwist
When: 28 Oct 18 18:23
Wily, what is your "affordable" limit in this exercise? If you are eyeing up Iffraaj even dropped in fee then it might be a generous sort of budget?
By:
truehoncho
When: 28 Oct 18 18:48
What about Footstepsinthesand?
By:
Wilycayote
When: 28 Oct 18 19:48
good call on Footsteps but was hoping to find an option in uk

appreciate that you have to up the budget a bit for a proven sire. It would be nice to have one in the 10-20k bracket.  A year ago I thought Helmet might fit this, but he's a bit of "one horse" sire now and been carted off to Germany.
By:
Formtwist
When: 28 Oct 18 20:08
OK for speed Bated Breath, Dutch Art and I'd say Charm Spirit and Sea the Moon, as although first season now so not exactly proven, their capacity to get quicker juveniles has surprised me. Despite under that limit I'd still look hard at Mayson. There are some very classy but stamina sires too of course like Nathaniel in this bracket, and if you aren't focussed on selling, Sixties Icon has very good stats. Good luck!
By:
Wilycayote
When: 29 Oct 18 12:10
Some good stuff spoken on here lately, but I have never worked out why anyone thinks Bated Breath is a good stallion.

Sir Prancelot, Mayson, Foxwedge, Casamento - all ranked above him in GB/IRE 3rd season sire list. and BB would have had much the best opportunity of this group.


He is a sheep in wolf's clothing. He just benefits from the Juddmonte branding which papers over the cracks.
By:
Formtwist
When: 29 Oct 18 20:13
Personally I would swerve Bated Breath on conformation issues, but no getting away from the sales medians for fillies as well as colts if that is what you need, which can't be said for Sir Prancelot or Casamento and Foxwedge has gone. Gets a fair enough percentage of two year olds akin to Mayson bettered by Dutch Art.
By:
truehoncho
When: 30 Oct 18 00:14
Agree BB is a poor stallion, I doubt his averages will hold up going forward. Fast Company (Ireland sorry) is doing well with moderate mares and may be good value at 8/9k. It's a tough area to get value.
By:
NEVIS B
When: 30 Oct 18 07:52
I have a couple of mares in foal to Fast Company and love the horse and is well able to throw a really good one. Obviously ain't that commercial but in reality aside from the handful of 'super sires' what actually is really commercial?

Love the way Coolmore are trying to talk Australia up at the moment when the reality is they have abandoned him already.  They all look slow don't they?

Agree with comments above on Bated Breath.

Charm Spirits in general don't improve for their runs. I would be very wary of them.

Dutch Art solid and has produced plenty of 100 plus performers.
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 30 Oct 18 10:54
Couldn't agree more NEVIS B, truly commercial waxes and wanes purely in line with what is currently in vogue. Other than the very few it's more about guess work given the time lapse between conception and sale.

I think that Equiano is the heir apparent to Bahamian and Compton but he is in a commercial slump at the moment and his ability to handle big books unlike Bahamian and Compton means he has more opportunity to p1ss people off.

I can't help thinking that all the Charm Spirits that got out this year, which really couldn't have been expected, might be victims of over ambition for them at 2. I wonder what the stouter patiently handled ones will have in store for next year. Gosden's ran well in the Futurity although not the strongest edition admittedly.

I tried for a Bated Breath this year and spent the first half of the season pleased I hadn't succeeded, the middle of the season hacked off and now the end of the season more relaxed again!

Perhaps that sums up the game. . .
By:
yer ma
When: 30 Oct 18 17:00
As Potm was probably thinking when he tried...Bated Breath gets nice sales horses and he'll churn out a decent amount of black type ones for the next few years out of decent mares (including mine fingers-crossed).  Or you could spend the same 10k on all manner of poorly bred, moderate Grp 2 animals.  Lethal Force isn't as bad as people seem to have decided so might revive (difficult).  Sea the Moon is a surprising one but like Sixties Icon I think it'll have limited impact on his sales.  Charm Spirit has done enough to let them maintain his too high fee.  Dutch Art burned a lot of fingers a few years ago but the might have healed.  I've always like HRE (had an argument on here many years ago on his relative merits vs Monsieur Bond at 10k...).  Havana Gold (might go up too much) and Dawn Approach has actually done ok (esp outside UK) and fee might be reduced.  Need a crystal ball if you want to be spot on commercially
By:
Posh Paddy
When: 30 Oct 18 21:47
Camacho, he’ll probably get a hike this year though
By:
Johnny_Mustang
When: 31 Oct 18 06:48
Coulsty (yes, look him up) coming to Norman Court.
By:
truehoncho
When: 31 Oct 18 20:28
For a season on his way to warmer climates?
By:
Formtwist
When: 01 Nov 18 12:26
Nunnery fees as usual very fair. Tasleet had a busy juvenile season, does anyone know of any physical reason why he was so sparely raced thereafter?
By:
Too Easy
When: 01 Nov 18 13:49
Ground?  Wouldn't surprise me if got jarred at Curragh. I am guessing but that was one run on fast ground this year. Didn't come back the same after it.
By:
Wilycayote
When: 01 Nov 18 17:26
Siyouni E100,000 !

seems a lot when I can only think of one top class runner of his this season. Lol

my guess Kingman will be 75k



I can but dream.....
By:
kincsem
When: 05 Nov 18 23:47
You can buy a piece of Siyouni at Arqana, 1/50th I think.
By:
potentialmillionaire
When: 09 Nov 18 17:03
Well let's hope Tweenhills save the day (not likely) because right now the b@st@rds appear to wanting their pound of flesh.
I don't think anyone will be sharing their thoughts on what's value, if any, until they've signed a contract!
By:
Formtwist
When: 09 Nov 18 17:16
With Lightning Spear launched at what seems to me a hefty £8,500 I think it very unlikely that Tweenhills will save the day! Darley have set an interesting challenge to them though with Cracksman's fee and I don't know that Zoustar will be sold as anything other than a serious horse given his performance so far in Australia. Big cut in fee for Ulysses though might make him value in his new £10k - £20k bracket, as he's had the usual top patronage first season.
By:
truehoncho
When: 09 Nov 18 18:19
There are a lot of new stallions but I think they are expensive on the face of it. I expect there will be plenty dealing. No Darley Club offerings this year. Is Hawkbill ok at £7.5k? If I was in Ireland I think Belardo may be worth a gamble. 20k for Expert Eye seems steep. At least in a couple of years there will be plenty of 3rd season stallions to gamble with.
By:
Wilycayote
When: 10 Nov 18 17:46
I wouldn’t use Unfortunately if he was free, but still expected him to be 5k

Expert eye a bit steep at 20k

Have we had a price for Nathaniel yet? He’s a real tricky one to assess commercially
By:
Colonel Sanders
When: 10 Nov 18 22:41
I'm only an interested reader rather than an actual breeder but thought

- Expert Eye is expensive
- Camelot would be more expensive
- Zoffany and Mastercraftsman look reasonable
By:
zygote
When: 12 Nov 18 09:37
Cracksman's fee strikes me as very fair, and should attract lots of support. Siyouni's fee is a joke, as is No No Nay Never's. Camelot is a stallion I have a lot of time for. Does anyone know what has happened to Dutch Art? Does he have fertility problems?
By:
Wilycayote
When: 12 Nov 18 17:02
We have a winner!!!! the most ridiculous stallion fee increase goes to.....


Sixties Icon. (up from 5,000 to £6,000)


now, I am not saying he is a bad stallion. I actually think he does quite well. But his 2018 yearling average is £2,216!!!
His last year's foal sale average was £2,304.
By:
Formtwist
When: 12 Nov 18 17:33
According to the RP his sales average was £9750. If I recall correctly the figure you quote was the price of a single short yearling at the February sale. Not many make the sale ring, whether down to vendor choice or the sales companies attitude I don't know. You were spot on with Kingman, and Nathaniel is now £25k. Equiano down to £6,000.
By:
Wilycayote
When: 12 Nov 18 17:53
I use the "Global stallions" app for my data. but agree, not many Sixties go through the sales.

Nathaniel 2018 yearling average £42,191 (down from £53,771 in 2017)
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