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value bet
29 Nov 18 22:17
Joined:
Date Joined: 12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 7,508 | Blogger: value bet's blog
Good morning.


Laying unfit horses got me a 99.50% strike rate (929/924) with average price 25/1 and place 929/900 - 97% strike rate.



·        Recently laying unfit favourites is running on 100% win and 11/12 a place: 92% strike rate. 2,100% profit in only 2 days.

·        Results:  W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/W/W - ON PLACE LAYING UNFIT FAVOURITES.


·        This is an amazing bet option but I need to be accountable to best perform.


·        I need to do a day of lay only to focus best plus on normal race days.


·        I will post free  on Betfair forum community on LAY ONLY DAYS.


·        This may then be bet back again and not lose on the race for punters.


·        Martingale lay place unfit favourites should work and never lose?


·        Please pass on this great news to your mates.


More later.


Jim
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Report value bet November 30, 2018 2:31 AM GMT
FRAMING MARKETS ON UNFIT FAVOURITES.

I am new to this but if an unfit fav. a place is $2, its stats say it is in the strike rate range of 10%, so it’s right price should be $11?

Either way members are getting massive overs laying it with a 90% chance of winning.


Non fitness punters are betting huge unders with only a 10% chance of winning and that is just place betting.

Thanks

James
Report value bet November 30, 2018 3:30 AM GMT
New nembers are signing up for lay only sms, thats ok.

Jim
Report value bet November 30, 2018 9:03 PM GMT
Big day coming up.

Saturday 8th going live on track for the Pakenham Cup and then over oncourse at the Cranbourne trots night meeting, for same service, lay unfit, back fit.

Interesting today, many new members on just wanting lay unfit horses, good business for Betfair?

All good.

James
Report value bet December 1, 2018 9:50 PM GMT
I stressed out big time, down but not out.



Good morning punters,

Apologies for members on only for lays sms that lost 7 points on win bets and on lay.

When I have members just waiting and waiting and waiting for unfit favourites sms tips; it sure adds up to yours truly stressing out and you make the wrong decisions that costs.

Fit win and unfit lose fancied runners are 2 different games to play and just too hard for me, at the moment.

•    Round 1 is over with 3 days 1,000% profit on win bets and even on place bets.

•    Round 2 will not be sms but FREE live posted here and suggestion of win lay only that is the only tips.

•    I will get on top of this new challenge.

•    Exotics on fire Saturday with 300% ROI

•    Fitter horses won 18/18 races, 100% strike rate.

Thanks

James
Report value bet December 2, 2018 6:55 PM GMT
From: James
Sent: Monday, December 3, 2018 5:46 AM
To: 'David

Subject: RE: 28.8 I stressed out big time, down but not out.



Thanks David, I hate losing members money.

Saturday was low fitness ratings with the odd 98% -then 97% - 96% and that means even, low fitness and I got caught on lays.

It’s hard when you are getting emails in during the day from lay members:  “Where are my lay bets”

Cheers

Jim



From: David To: 'James

Subject: RE: 28.8 I stressed out big time, down but not out.


Gidday James ,    All good

Cheers

David
Report value bet December 2, 2018 10:20 PM GMT
2 DOGS

I might go to Sandown dogs on a Thursday, and have a look, u get 10 minutes from the kennels.

Plus I have jumped up a level from 10 years ago.

There has been a decided bigger interest in night betting.

James

Ex Dog Trainer.
Report value bet December 3, 2018 12:28 AM GMT
Live Horses Wednesday
Live Lay day only Horses Thursday
Live On Course Greyhounds Thursday night
Live Horses Saturday
Live On Course Trots Saturday night


All we will win at all meetings.

Please send your donations for my funeral to Mrs Thatcher!

Jame
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