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value bet
10 Sep 17 11:59
Date Joined: 12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 7,508 | Blogger: value bet's blog
The Everest fitness updates and my opinions.

Chautauqua $4.80     Quality type and proven, only hitch is they don't peak its blood count enough, and that is when he cannot finish full of running, he needs 100% blood count and fitness and can win
The grey flash has now had two trials, finishing fifth behind Trapeze Artist at Rosehill over 1020m last Monday. He is set to return in The Shorts (1100m) at Randwick on Saturday before heading to The Everest. Brenton Avdulla has been booked to ride in both races.

Vega Magic $5  Talented horse on the small size, especially strength factors, I just think the "bigger horses" will gobble it up, current fitness 98%
Vega Magic looks likely to be the horse that Lindsay Park head to The Everest with after wins in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes and Group One Memsie Stakes to start the spring.

Menari $5.50 Good enough horse currently on 98% fitness, above average type with nice strength factors. They need 100% fitness to win though.

The Golden Rose is the first challenge that awaits the Snitzel colt at Rosehill on September 23. He was most impressive in The Run to the Rose on Saturday and will be very hard to beat in the Group One in a fortnight’s time. He hasn’t secured a slot in The Everest yet, but you would think a win at Rosehill would see him gain a start.

She Will Reign $6.50  I think they are sitting back laughing here as the field sorts itself out. Proven Group 1 winner with speed and stamina, not seen for months and if on 99% - 100% extremely hard to beat. I would be confident her fitness will be spot on race day and my tip so far.-

The Golden Slipper winner is yet to begin her spring campaign. She trialled at Warwick Farm on August 25 where she finished second to stablemate Single Bullet. She is set to have another trial before resuming in the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley a fortnight prior to The Everest.

Russian Revolution $11  This is a Group 1 quality size horse who on just 98% fit winner last start has improvement in his blood count, fitness and needs to muscle up more. Exceptional type and my only question is his brain cells good enough to switch on, on the day. A big danger if comes in at 100% fit and ready to really race.

Resumed with a strong win against a small field in the McEwen Stakes (Moonee Valley, 1000m) on Saturday. He’ll now head to the Moir Stakes and then on to The Everest if he can secure a slot.

Russian Revolution scored a strong win first-up in the Mitty McEven Stakes at Moonee Valley. Image: Getty

Redzel $11  Maybe just a bit over it all and would need to be 100% on the day and things go his way.

Redzel has developed into a super consistent sprinter for the Snowden stable. He took out the Concorde Stakes first-up when facing only three rivals over 1000m. He'll line-up in the Shorts on Saturday at Randwick over 1100m. He is one of five runners in contention for the ATC's slot and has to be a big chance of getting the nod.

English $13   A nice mare, but could be outclassed here, 100% fit or no hope.

The five-year-old mare is guaranteed a start in the race through the TAB’s slot. She has had two trials at Randwick in preparation for her return in The Shorts next Saturday.

Brave Smash $13  This is a nice horse and on 98% fit could measure up as best outsider. Improve his blood count and fitness to 100% to just have any chance.

Reports on Sunday suggest the Japanese import will head straight to The Everest following his win at Moonee Valley, with Australian Bloodstock in consultation with a couple of the slot holders. Brave Smash’s win on Saturday wasn’t overly convincing from an Everest standpoint, but both the trainer and owners believe there is plenty of improvement to come.

Redkirk Warrior $17   Not seen for a while but think outclassed.

The winner of the Newmarket Handicap during the autumn will step out at Flemington on Saturday in the Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m). He’s in competition with stablemate Vega Magic for The Star’s slot, but a big win first-up could help Lindsay Park get two runners into the race.

Pariah $17  A tad too small and little strength factors to worry the big guns for me.

He remains a possibility for The Everest with his owner James Harron holding a slot in the race, but the Golden Rose is first on the agenda. He finished runner-up to Menari in The Run to the Rose on Saturday after a first-up win in the San Domenico Stakes. The Caulfield Guineas is also an option for Pariah after the Golden Rose.

Houtzen $17   Has ability but on the skin and bone natural fitness and her lack of strength factors will play against winning

The Magic Millions winner has a spot in the race through Aquis Farm. She resumed at Moonee Valley on Saturday with a head-scratching run in the McEwen Stakes. Sitting three-wide throughout,
she never looked comfortable in the run and at the turn it appeared she would drop right out. She rallied however in the straight, doing her best work late to grab third.

I think there is also a smoky out there to peak in fitness and get a run, maybe a 3yo somewhere.

Would WINX win this: I think so, sit 1-2 lengths in front of Chautauqua, want go when he goes and see who can
sprint for 600 metres flat our to win.  It would bring the house down anywhere in the world!

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Craig The Speculator
When: 14 Sep 17 16:41
great preview Value
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