OPM...

Other Peoples Money

These are recent unfit favourites at time of sending, rated on 96% crowded with others; THEY LOST


These stats were never available before because no person could rate how fit horses were.

Did you back any of these unfit horses?


Strike rate  127 rated  121 have lost  96% strike rate; winning 4% strike rate.



Moonee Valley



Race 3       Expressamosa                 3rd               $4.20

Race 5       Propelled                    Unpl              $4.40

Race 6       Holly Cow                    Unpl              $2.50

Race 9       Gangnam Style                Unpl              $3.30



Flemington



Race 1     El Grego                       2nd               $3.10

Race 6     Kansas Sunflower               2nd               $3.70



Geelong



Race 1     Hollwoodroosevelt   Unp                   $1.70

Race 2     Manhattan Menage    2nd                   $3.50



Most of these were shorter if I had of layed on Betfair, a few were long priced.



Average Price      $3.30       

Jim

This is figures if you let it ride, if wanted other figures you would have to increase your bets per race to get other results.

Thanks for member.

Jim


To: 'Admin'
Subject: RE:  8 Lays in 7 days, how much you win?


Thanks X, I appreciate that.

Yes, you could risk tens of thousands to win $25k

Jim

To: 'James Conway'

Subject: RE: 8 Lays in 7 days, how much you win?


It's more about if you lay a $4.00 chance, you have to risk $300 to win $100. So if you laid 8 x $4.00 chances, risking $300 with the first one,

then risking your collect (in the first case, $400) for all the others, it'd look like this -

bet no.    price    risk    collect
1    $4.00    $300    $400
2    $4.00    $400    $533
3    $4.00    $533    $711
4    $4.00    $711    $948
5    $4.00    $948    $1,264
6    $4.00    $1,264    $1,686
7    $4.00    $1,686    $2,247
8    $4.00    $2,247    $2,997
           
Totals        $8,090    $10,786
Nett            $2,697
ROI            0.33


So in the case of 8 x $4.00 chances losing, you would turn $300 into $2997, or a profit of $2697, which is 900% on your initial outlay, but a profit on turnover of 33%.

Hope that helps…. G

Those six winning favourites would have to be about 160/1 each to start getting into red territory. It's not often you see a market where the favourite is 160/1. A very open race.

gold plated thread

Looks like I've got some serious research to do. How to find an angle to somehow make a profit on races where the favourite is 160/1? You guys probably won't hear from me for a while. I could be onto something.

.... jimmy's a natural, even better than you and kami judge .... just my opinion but jimmy is effortless doesn't have to think at all.

Results was 4-7-13-2

Any imbecile can pluck a few winners a day when you've got 4 selections.

You're doing better than me. I don't understand a thing he says!!

Nice work again.

POT winners only, may be 50%

Tipped about $3,500 worth of Trifectas top line.

One race, costs $120 to get back $1850: Win $1,730

Again Exacta's are performing excellent.




    ·      One unfit fav called and again lost, 139/133 have lost; 96% strike rate.
    ·       Last 28 have lost          100% strike rate
    ·       Last 53 one has won.   98% strike rate


Regards

Jim

Jim,

You're a hard man to pin down to an answer .. and I understand you you have stopped replying to such questions

however you keep ... posting your results ... on the forum so maybe just once more can I ask please ...


from your website (you had the race numbers mixed up so I had to do a little detective work to ensure it was race 7)

Wed
Sand race 7
Results

19-13-12-18   Winner Mr Wonderful  $16.90    Trifecta $290    Pick 4  $3702

then you had your % fitness ratings

98%   #7  #12
97%   #3  #8   #13  #20
96%   #11 #2   #5
95%   #19 #17
94%   #18

now #19 won the race and paid $16.90 as you mentioned at the top


but #19 you had rated as an unfit horse on 95%


so my question again is simple (though I do understand the answer can be complex)


HOW DOES AN UNFIT HORSE BEAT HOME NINE HORSES THAT ARE FITTER THAN IT ?


I have an answer (that I think) ... but what would you tell one of your paying customers ... if they asked a similar question

TB .... im not so sure that any of his clients .... would be capable of constructing such a question

“Golly gosh batman, I have solved bigger problems than this in my life time!”



Part 1.


How to win on the punt using fitness?


If you don’t like to read too much, just hang up now, cause I am going to ramble on and on.

After 8 weeks of fitness spread sheets we are showing definite patterns in many winning bets

previously unavailable because nobody could rate fitness before giving punters a real edge.




When to bet and when to fold?  How to get value overs.


After my debacle on Saturday in race 6, there has to be some sort of formulas and rules to keep winning

using fitness as your foundation for bets?


Obviously self-control is the key, but what about the formulas?



You have heard me flog to death laying unfit favourites and that by far is the best bets we have with a 96% strike rate, and current rate 100% for last 28 favourite lays and 98% for last 53 unfit fav. lays, using BETFAIR.




What about other punters that don’t like that type of wagering?


It seems to me that fitness% spread sheets is perfectly designed for punters to bet on exotics races to win on.

I have tipped probably $50k worth of Pick 4’s top line and tens of thousands of dollars all on top line in trifectas.

Throw in winning Quinella and Exactas and there is money up for grabs here if we can just get some betting system going.




Let’s take step by step.


Unfit fav. out or around $5 plus favourite, obviously these are going to pay big overs as punters; there is no real edge in one horse or the other, that is why it is a good open race to bet on.



Firstly, you have to get the dividend, that’s the way I see it and then worry about the profits later as you know it

is going to be big and hope it is really big with the fall of the right numbers.




Box 9’s:



That just about is the top two rows in rated fitness that comes up in harder races, could be only 8 horses.

“Back 9 horses, don’t be stupid you nut, you cannot win betting like that, or can you?”




How much does it cost?



Box 9 Trifecta      $504         5%            $25.20

Box 9 Quinella     $36          10%          $3.60    (Double for Exacta)


Race Bet                                             $28.80



A good bet if you have an unfit fav and/or $5 the favourites.

Saturday’s race 6 got a $13k trifecta in, $200 Exacta and a big Quinella of $136

Spend $28.80 and return $663.60, profit of $634.80 on the race or 2,300% profit.



When to hold and when to fold, this is what FITNESS tells punters.





Box 6 



Again when the prices are in your favour, what does a box 6 costs.



Box  6  Trifecta      $120      5%           $6.00

Box 6   Quinella     $30        10%         $3.00



Race bet:                                             $9.00



Good value when the favourite is no good thing, but may run in

and bigger profits if unplaced.




Box 5


Again when the prices are in your favour, what does a box 5 costs.



Box  5  Trifecta      $60          5%           $6.00

Box  5   Quinella    $10        10%          $1.00



Race bet:                                              $7.00



Good value again when the favourite is no good thing, but may run in

and bigger profits if unplaced.



“Now what this little black duck is going to do is get a piece of white cardboard about the size

of your credit card, write down these costs, on both sides, clear tape over it and place in my wallet

for use as my fitness bet calculator”


I think the fear of not knowing how much these flexi bigger exotics really costs scares punters off,

but surprisingly little costs to win with big multiple bets.



“I’m going to break out of the ZOO, who’s with me?”



Part 1 done for the night punters.


More to follow next time in Part 2.  “Betting with a fit horse you like”

Regards

James

I said it about 10 times and it does not sound like organes????

Good morning Punters.

I am getting fairly quick at creating my spread sheets now and will in future
place the top line in order of my preferences.

On Saturday in a mixed group, I backed Refulgent (4) $4.90  winner and (11) Niminpimy $8.40
winner because they were the best of the top line.

Both rated a strong 97%, but were not quite 98% fit to go up that next level.


This should help members when there is more than one on the top line.

We are only 8 weeks into all this and are still refining the system as we go along.

Regards

James

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGl6OlSczdU

MartinGale

Yes, I thought of that, punting with part of your winnings, but what the hell, $200 would last at least 30 outs in a row, and
that is not going to happen.

Get about 20/25 in and you are then betting some serious monies here, like $200 - $400 a race.

Sure you have a take out, may first $1,000 and keep it rolling along.

Fitness is the key to it all.

Thanks

Saturdays 1st selection top row results:


Race 1   Caravan Rolls on,  1st up led for a long way and weaken, we had only 3 on top line including winner Our Voodoo Prince $8


Race 2   Iggimacool,   2nd and should of won, jockey went to sleep about 800 out and stormed home.


Race 3   Dig a Poney,   1st


Race 4   Demonstrate,  jockey rode back in pack whole race and never saw daylight, close up 4th, no brains.


Race 5   Petits Filous  1st


Race 6  Smokey Joey, wide all the way and weakened.


Race 7  Late Charge, had a go here @ $33/$7 and stormed home from near last to go down in develop print for 3rd, ran 4th, Pick 4 $93K


Race  8  Rapasco, 4th, can’t run 1800 metres, needs back to 1600.


We should of got 5/9 on top with a bit of luck.


Items of interest:



Unbeaten Petits Filous continued on her winning way on 98% highest fitness, though very good it did worry me

that 50 metres where Oliver had to work hard on her to win.


Won at 1100, given a bad draw next start will may be up to Group 1 over 1200, she would have to peak higher than 98% fit for me.



Very impressive type, or in fact best type in the race was the (8) Miss Gunpowder, very nice filly and watch out for her next start.



Thanks