Unfit favourite stats are still showing amazing figures, 8 lost today and we knew they would.

108 fav. rated low in 96% - 95% fit mixed in a group and:

103 have lost.

5 have won.

Strike on unfit favourites is 4.76%

That is your chance of winning, and strike rate will stay around those figures for ever!

FREE ALL MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

Bradman like tipping.

Good morning,

I can only make Geelong on Tuesday this week, which is a free day.


Previously 96%/95% races were dicey now they are our start bet with
108/103 favourites in this bracket NOT WINNING.

Your winning strike rate on the fav. in these race, which are at least 50% of the card is only 4.76% which is 20/1 prices
but punters are taking 2/1.


With the average stats of 30% - 33% of fav winning, this means that horses 97% - 98% - 99% - 100% must be winning
about 80% - 90% of the time, and this is right especially when they hit 98% plus.


These figures are outstanding and you will never find them in your form guides, videos, trial tracks reports,
software data or paid for form analyst can advise you on these astonishing returns, but is all good news for us.


Jim

Good evening punters, just a short news as bit late now and bet time very soon.


Another winning day for members on what was pretty tough going with rain nearly all day,

coats on horses, mobile black out and darkening skies which really makes it difficult to rate the horses.


A bit pissed off with clerk of courses also with a 9 event program them being really slack in

not evening worrying about getting the runners in the yard in any sort of time before the races.


I hope (7)  fixes this problems as I clearly think many of them need a pension card, it's has been going on for
20 years, yet Singapore, Hong Kong, UK, South Africa, France, USA, Japan do not have this problem.

It's only in Australia where trainers rule the roost on a race track.



Also there are fines in place for late horses in the mounting yard, BUT NEVER APPLIED BY CLUBS.


The (4) in the last and winner Lord Durante came into the yard and straight onto the track,

with about 1 minute before start time, $9.00 and I would of rated top line, I was not happy.


Not good enough in my book.



The day was filled with drama as winners clearly on top and won, or top group of 2 running in first 4,

or 2-6-5 on top 97% finishing 1-2-3 and trifecta a great $100.


This result 6-2-5; race 6, some members got my MMS, some did not, I had communications problems for about 30 minutes and
though tried to send 10 times nothing happened. This is all out of my hands.


Thankfully all came good by the next race.


We had a 98% on top on its own; walk in, Green Card ($3.70)  in the 1st and very nice horse also, so watch out for in the spring.



We had another 98%, that very hard horse to catch, Lord of The Sky ($2.40), whom once he missed the kick

out wide, that was that. He has a heart as big as a pea!



We had 2 races with the fav. on 96% surrounded x others and once again they did not win.


You had little chance of collecting on Word Of Mouth ($3.10) on 96% and early fav. Shakespearian Lass ($3.80) and
late fav. Charivari ($5.60)

winning; all lost.


Our world top laying strike rates of 96%  with 117 called and 112 unfit favourites losing is truly amazing.


Plunges went down because they did not have a clear fitness nor fit enough to justify the huge amount of money, punters lost millions.



Jalan Jalan (Caulfield R1) - $9 ➞ $5
Carashan Girl (Caulfield R2) - $15 ➞ $7.50
Heavy (Caulfield R3) - $7 ➞$3.80
Mick's Hustler (Caulfield R4) - $12 ➞ $4.60
Herstory (Caulfield R5) - $10 ➞ $4.80
Chiavari (Caulfield R7) - $9 ➞ $5.50




We are easily winning 9/10 meetings.

Spread sheets up later on a hard day at the office but a winning day.


James

Bet365, if DynamicOdds are to be trusted (certainly no reason not to).

Wed 10.00
Thur 8.00
Fri  7.00
Sat  6.50-4.80

The other books (only the ones I have up) were between 6.50 and 7.50 opening prices.

Of course, I hate that I am providing anything positive here, just reporting on what I see.

The term "plunge" however holds no relevance, as there is nothing to suggest that any money was taken at any level with the books.  The only site that should be used to refer to such things is a site which is transparent in regards to money matched.  of course, Betfair is the only one.

What it did on Betfair, I have no idea, just that WAP was 5.29, and SP was 5.10

cheers BJT I only saw the Saturdays prices and I started early the mare ... and I use dynamic also

6.50 to 4.80 but plenty of high $6's here on BF (maybe touched $7+ late) and around 1.90 or a little less the place near the jump (when jim's customer's get the phone call) so maybe he IS responsible for the 'blow' late lol (and the sweet place price as was expecting around $1.55)

ffs.  Don't think my computer could run it with one of those. 

Just a brief hello,

Another winning day and it was very big pay day in the 1st race

where we had the odds on pop Hollywoodroosvelt @ $1.70 in a field of 7;

unfit and a real danger of missing out; and it did!



For that price:



1.     It was no-where fit enough for an odds on pop

2.     It had no strength factors

3.     It had no hypertrophic muscle factors

4.     It had a low blood count.

5.     Punters lost a small fortune and bookies won a small fortune.





My numbers were on:



96%:      5 1% 6 7 4

95%:      Nil

94%:      3-2



Results were 6-4-5-7 with the odds on 5th in a field of seven.

I got the lot in exotics.



Winner       $10                        100% profit

Quinella     $53.00                  1,325% profit

Exactor      $109                    1,362% profit


Trifecta     $621                   Massive:   $60/   $1035% profit


Pick 4        $763                    $120 = 635% profit


Profit on 1st race:                    4,457% 

(I got a good part of that, without laying the odds fav on Betfair!)



Our lay the fav strike rate is now 120/114 have lost, 96% strike rate.



Plenty of winners on top during the day in short numbers:  Profit 35% on turnover. 



I consistently nail 1-2-3 races in big dividends a meeting.

James

Henry if there was an odds fav in the race, then very easy to get even money dutching 5 runners, so 100% is very accurate, could even go as far as 150% ROI

VB, its exacta not exactor, sorry for being pedantic, also to box 5 horses in an exacta would cost $20, return $109 is profit of $89, or 44.5%

Your other exotics %s are also out, but WD

I never was any good at maths, all this sort of stuff/accountability confuses me.

Thanks all the same.

Favourites that are not fit enough in crowded groups on 96%/95% lose

Hi Jim,

Do all the horses you rate at 96%/95% fitness also have only a 4% winning strike rate

or is it just with the favourites that you found this is occurring ?

that could well be the case henry .. it is winter .. and the sample is not large

but I hope Jim has the courtesy or interest to answer as it does beg a question

if only 4% of faves win at 95-96% fit

but if the other 95-96% fit horses win at a far larger percentage (I mean far larger) .. then it is NOT fitness as such that has determined this phenomena as I understand it

all 96-96% fit horses should have a reasonably similar win ratio (albeit the small sample size)

let's hope Jim has not identified an issue with racing that Purana might best llok at in the future

either way .. Jim .. and you it seems also henry ... will continue to feast on the huge cash droppings on these particular faves in Victoria (jim does not asses the NSW racing and it would be interesting to see if their faves have a similar poor strike record)

but it could be seasonal also as you suggest

interesting though

I would lay a fave ... with certain jocks on them ... for sure lol

but else I prefer to dabble in my small way on all my own historical notes on win/each-way/place betting

laying to me is a little like watching someone play Russian roulette

you know the bullet will be hammered at some point 

but if you have already accumulated double the percentage chance in dollars (that are against you) .. then there is no reason it cannot be as profitable as successful standardised non-lay betting

win bets or lay bets Kami

If you had $100 on every fav so far today you would be up about $1200 at 40%.

Not at Geelong !(if win only)

and

The 3 shortest prices were :

2.80 (race 1)

1.80 (race 4)

$2.20 (race 6)

ALL ROLLED.....

haha yes lol .. but good work at geelong henry

with those bullets of course it often just depends on when they come


imo a layer needs to quickly double their exposure 'holdings' with prior successes

for example

laying 2/1 shots (tho a typical lay price on BF for these 2/1 shots would be 5/2 I guess which is another maths problem)


but lets just we could lay them at 2/1

if 2 of the 3 lose and 1 wins then we break square ... so we actually need 3 from 4 to lose to make a profit


but if one wins straight after that ... then we're down again ... so the buffer imo is double the % chance ... to ensure being always in profit which is we now need 5 from 6 to lose ... to keep our nose ahead


a bit of an ask unless you have skills/formulae or whatever to break the mathematical principles which say that if laying 2/1 shots then ... "at some point" ... a layer will sadly lay SEVEN in a row that will win (and conversely lay 7 in a row that will lose their race) ... the dice game ... BJT correctly states that the slow bleed is the real killer and of course that is correct .. death by a thousand cuts

a layer might well fight back or have accumulated profits as a buffer to staunch them against the psychological impact of 7 in row OR the slow bleed

but just ... ANY 2/1 fave ... as a lay probably won't work ... financially or emotionally ... over the tyranny of time

of course the sample size needs to be substantial but a tough ask running a plan for a year or two ... to find out that maths (and Black Swans) in the end bring many a good plan to its knees

toughest gig on earth .. horseracing .. and many have seemed to have found the alchemists touch & "turned lead into gold" ... but only to find out it in the future that it was a dream

being sensible & cautious (as you correctly state henry) is the very best start

I have no idea.

How much is it now (per day), Jim?

It would be mathematically impossible for a layer to not have two winners get up in a row ever. I'm starting to worry about you Henry.