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value bet
30 Sep 12 00:10
Date Joined: 12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 7,508 | Blogger: value bet's blog
No 8    How we got $2.32 More Joyous

Value Punting Tip using fitness:

Champion mare More Joyous on 97% fit had far superior form to her rivals today with a price of $1.04, or 25/1 on.

How do you make money on races like this when the winner is a shoe-in?

One way is to find the fittest horse in the race and take it in an exotic bet to run 2nd to More Joyous.

We did that in Skyerush on 97% fit with the favourite way Colorado Clair only 95% fit and took the exotic bet 1-2, More Joyous to win with Skyerush to run 2nd: @ a very juicy price of $2.32.

As the race panned out More Joyous had gone for home lengths in front and Skyerush and Colorado Clair were fighting it out for 2nd placing. Superior fitness told with Skyerush as it drew clean of Colorado Claire.

Fitness ratings got us a huge $2.32 dividend as compared to a $1.04 win being on More Joyous.

So even if you have a certainty, you can still find good value if you have a fitness edge in your punting.

Our black booker’s are start to race again and winners yesterday were Holylonny, Kabayan, More Joyous with the unlucky Hard Liquor at $14.00/$3.60 place running a great 3rd.
We went back twice with Hard Liquor in the Pick 4 and got a nice flexi percentage of the $2.2k dividend. Follow Hard Liquor, huge run. Others are placing.

Punters Beware: We cautioned punters on “Strawberry Boy also on 98% was found wanting and be very careful when you want to back him, he may not stay” in a previous edition and yesterday at odds on again failed to deliver for favourite punters, so our mail was spot on right.

International Fitness Report

The nice strong type from Ireland, Julienas goes into our black booker list. In good fitness levels of 96% he ran a cracking 2nd and has 4 lengths improvement in him and will stay. So watch out for this bloke in the bigger distance races coming up.

Stable of Stars.

We have two new inductees into our stable of stars and one is Julienas (see above) and the other is the raw talent of Kabayan.

I have had my eye on this horse for a month now and when the trainer by passed a big Sydney race to come to Melbourne I thought, “this is a huge ask” in my opinion. He wasn’t right and failed. With the race experience under his belt, he was still only on 96% fit, a slight improvement but toyed with the opposition including the highly promising Albrecht on superior fitness of 98%.

This is a very nice horse and the size of his hind quarters will only strengthen to stronger levels with hypertrophic fitness training and he really could be a star in the future. He is untapped in super fitness so far.

•    Epaulette (Aust)
•    More Joyous (Aust)
•    Zurella (Aust)
•    Huka Falls (Singapore)
•    Molto Bene (Aust)
•    Winchester(Aust/USA)
•    Pierro (Aust)
•    Julienas (Aust)
•    Kabayan (Aust)
Pause Switch to Standard View No. 8 How we got $2.23 More Joyous on...
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Report Thebas September 30, 2012 12:49 AM BST
hi jim

do you think gai is a good or lucky trainer 

i mean ... as you state ... she can get Pierro to 100% fit

but can't get More Joyous better than 97% fit

is gai doing something a little wrong with some horses training ... and something right with others ?
Report value bet September 30, 2012 3:33 AM BST
its probably got to do how some horses come to hand quicker than others, i don't have the answer.
Report whoopi September 30, 2012 5:04 AM BST
Thebas I hope Jim's reply taught you something....

You can't ask a Fiction writer a Non Fiction question and expect an actual answerWink
Report Thebas September 30, 2012 5:40 AM BST
lol whoopi ... i am still confused tho ... if you know how to get a horse 100% fit ... why wouldn't you get ALL your horses 100% fit
Report value bet September 30, 2012 5:55 AM BST
I have high benchmarks in my formula and 100% super fit horses are special with all balanced fitness levels.

Under 1% of all horses racing would rate 100% super fit.

Trainers say there horses are 101% fit and get beat 6 lengths, why.

Because they were not 100% super fit.

And yes a horse can get beat 100% super fit if it is in a race it cannot win.
Report Thebas September 30, 2012 6:04 AM BST
And yes a horse can get beat 100% super fit if it is in a race it cannot win.

that's a fair point jim
Report della September 30, 2012 6:51 AM BST
Skyerush paid $3.70 a place on Stab - seems a silly bet to take $2.32 for the exacta
Report Lloydy Trots Man September 30, 2012 8:41 AM BST
How can you tell how much % they are fit?
Do you personally do Skin Fold Tests on them?

I honestly havent heard so much shiit in my lfe/

What happens if im 100% Fit and i race against Usain Bolt at 70% Fit over 100mt am i a Moral because im 100% Fit?
Even at 50% Usain id lose
Report Village Kid September 30, 2012 8:54 AM BST
with 50% fitness I could kick the sh!t out of a 101% fit Jim with both hands tied behind my back.......IMO
Report Village Kid September 30, 2012 8:59 AM BST
how big a desperate can you be if you think "a very juicy price of $2.32"

ROFLMFAO $2.32 FFS LaughLaughLaughLaugh

aftertiming a divvie of $2.32

Report Lloydy Trots Man September 30, 2012 9:04 AM BST
Like What Della Said It Paid 3.70 the place so Copped Huge Unders and Huge risk as What if More Joyous Broke dwn in run.
Im still Confused how you can tell how fit a Horse is.
If that can be explained to me i might just start doing Skin Fold tests on every horse.
Unless he does Blood tests as well.
Maybe if i do a Formula on how big the Horses Ccks are i wonder if that will get me a winner.
Report Live_in_Hope September 30, 2012 9:24 AM BST
like how close to the tv do you need to be to point your phone at the horses arse? would i be able to do it from my lounge chair, bearing in mind my tv is only 80cm wide and my chair is about 2 metres away.
regards< LIH
Report Live_in_Hope September 30, 2012 9:27 AM BST
can dust be a problem?
what about stains? ie gravy from my big rooster roll dripped on the screen, bit smudgy now
just wondering
regards, LIH
Report AFL September 30, 2012 11:58 PM BST
How does 1% of fitness = 1 lgth ???????? As you have previously stated???????

Does this mean that if i give my horse a banana and it improves 1 lgth ...then

1 banana = 1 lgth?

As i have previously asked.
Report dummy987654 October 1, 2012 12:47 AM BST
One thing for sure , what ever he is smoking it's got to be 98.99% pure
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