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just figured i'd start this as we head towards grand final eve.
who do you guys fancy?
should watson be that low?
gazza. really
?
get your tips in early here for awesome bragging rights
who do you guys fancy?
should watson be that low?
gazza. really
? get your tips in early here for awesome bragging rights
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This is how I have the top few at this stage....
TOTAL VOTES after Rd 20 Ablett(GoCoa) 26 (10 games 7x3,2x2,1x1) Thompson(Ade) 24 (12 games 5x3,2x2,5x1) Mitchell(HAW) 24 (10games 4x3,6x2,0x1) Watson(Ess) 24 (11games 2x3,8x2,2x1) Swan(Col) 23 (10 games 6x3,1x2,3x1) Dangerfield(Ade) 20 (8 games 5x3,2x2,1x1) Beams(Col) 20 (9games 4x3,3x2,2x1) Kennedy(SYD) 20 (10games 4x3,2x2,4x1) Jack(SYD) 17 Stanton(Ess) 16 Cotchin(RIC) 16 Dangerfield has been a big mover lately....with possibly 9 votes in the last 4 games, and is a Danger to the Field imo. They aren't afraid to give Ablett the full 3 votes in losses as was proven last year. I still might have over compensated for this though. I have used the same method i did last year with this. My votes have been taken from the AFL match writers votes, and spread the 3,2,and 1 votes based on the points of the wins and losses. It managed to correctly predict all No 1 vote-getters at the clubs except for two clubs. Didn't predict Swan or the margin either though.  |
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With Thompson possibly polling in more matches than others prob puts him as a hot chance and /or Watson only 2x 3 votes perhaps more 3 votes if my method has under polled him. Both of them have high voting players from their own side this year though by the looks of it.
Too close to pick at this stage and will come down to the last few games. |
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Jack/Kennedy dead heat for mine. Would prefer Jack outright as on at around 270/1
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thompson ADEL and cotchin RICH
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ablett's price is the typical kansas city shuffle where 'when everyone looks left you go right'.
this is a table which pretty much says ablett will find it difficult to win. 2011 swan 20 wins 2010 judd 11 wins 2009 ablett 18 wins 2008 cooney 15 wins 2007 bartel 18 wins 2006 goodes 14 wins 2005 cosuins17 wins 2004 judd 13 wins 2003 roo,bucks,goodes 13,15,14 wins 2002 blsck 17 wins 2001 aker 17 wins 2000 woewoe 14 wins 1999 crawfs 10 wins 1998 harvey 13 wins 1997 harvey 15 wins 1996 voss/hird 15,14 wins 1995 pkelly 8!!!!! WTFWTFWTF???? 1994 diesel 15 wins 1993 wanga 13 wins 1992 wynd 16 wins 1991 stynes 13 wins 1990 liber 12 wins only p kelly bucked the above trend and won with only 8 wins for the sydney swans. so using that, lets say ablett has to get 8 wins. but he has 2 and he prob wasnt the best in the second win v gws. so he steals a couple of three votes in losing games. he then has 4 'wins'. tough..... |
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2000....woewoe how the fck
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the above table also makes me think mr a. swallow is worth a little something.12 wins so far and a gozillion to 1.
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a.swallow is the most underrated mid fielder in the game
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Whilst I agree that traditionally it has been difficult for players to win or poll high without their side winning many games, I think Ablett broke the mould last year, he is a proven vote getter and Brownlow winner who got 23 votes last year off 3 wins and lower stats than this year.
2011 Ablett polled 23 votes, (10 games) 5x3, 3x2, 2x1 vote He polled 3 vts in each of 3 losses by 57, 50 and 9 pts This has been his best year individually and by the stats. I have been saying myself that i may have over-polled him, but going back and reading the reports I am having second thoughts. Disposals this year ...... 11 in the 30's, 5 in the 40's and 1 match in the 50's. Even if you give him 5x3 votes (the same he got last year), 4x2, and 1x1....it puts him level with the others on my polling at this stage. Ablett possible votes 2012 Rd 2 - 3 votes v StKil (L) 72 pts (Disp 40) The StKilda win came despite another wonderful performance from Suns skipper Gary Ablett, who with 40 touches (20 of them contested) two goals and a mark of the week contender, mounted a strong case to be voted best afield. Rd 3 - 3 votes v Ess (L) 17 pts (Disp 45) Following his 43 and 40 touches in the opening two rounds against Adelaide and St Kilda, Ablett's effort is believed to be the first time in AFL history a player has started the season with three 40-possession games. Rd 10 - 3 votes v Coll (L) 97 pts (Disp 53) a 53-disposal effort from Gold Coast skipper Gary Ablett, In an enthralling midfield duel, superstars Ablett (31 kicks and 22 handballs) and Dale Thomas (32 touches and three goals) opposed each other for much of the contest, and remarkably a case could be made for either to receive best-afield honours. Rd 12 - 3 votes v NthMel (L) 7 pts (Disp 42) Skipper Gary Ablett was peerless, silencing any critics with a sublime 42-disposal, four-goal display. His second goal midway through the second quarter had to be seen to be believed - the skipper received a handpass in traffic, put the jets on to lose Harvey then miraculously bent a 50m left foot kick through the posts while hugging the left boundary line. Rd 16 - 3 votes v Ric (W) 2 pts (Disp 33) Captain Ablett (33 disposals) starred for the victors and was well supported by Harley Bennell, while Matera (two goals) and Harbrow were both key players. Rd 17 - 3 votes v Bri (L) 11 pts (Disp 37) Suns captain Gary Ablett was named the Marcus Ashcroft Medallist for best afield for his 37 disposals, nine tackles and one goal. rd 18 - 3 votes v Syd (L) 72 pts (Disp 42) For the Suns, skipper Gary Ablett worked tirelessly, collecting more than 40 disposals and laying nine tackles. .................................................................................................. Rd 1 - 2 votes v Ade (L) 69 pts (Disp 42) Again captain Gary Ablett led the way with 42 disposals and two remarkable goals. In both the first and last quarter, Ablett evaded opponents before launching bombs from outside the 50m arc near the right hand boundary line in near carbon copy efforts. Rd 20 - 2 votes v GWS (W) 30 pts (Disp 23) The win was made even sweeter by the fact it was achieved without a dominant performance from superstar Gary Ablett. Brandon Matera (22 touches and two goals), Danny Stanley (26 touches and 12 marks), David Swallow (24) and Kyal Horsley (23) were all prominent, while Ablett got busy late. Rd 15 - 1 votes v Gee (L) 14 pts(Disp 27) Ablett had 27 disposals - including 11 in the last term - and kicked 2.4 but it was not enough. ........................................................................ Possible Total after Rd 20 26 votes Not sure exactly but i think he may have created a record last year for the most votes ever polled off the least amount of wins. He has been better this year. |
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Watson has been good but with the Bombers wobbling he will struggle - the best teams are more balanced without as many standout players so Ablett has to be a pretty good chance despite playing in a losing side most weeks
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yes he will poll well. but he polled 23 and came tied 6th last year. they won 3 games.
they have 2 wins this year and it is agreed by most he was not BOG v GWS which counts for one of his two wins. how many three votes is he really going to get losing? two tops imo..that's how many he stole last year. they won three games and he got 5 three votes. it is an impossibility to win the brownlow with 2 actual wins. unless gold coast wins two more games he is the lay of the century. it will be a greater achievement than cadel evans winning the tour. better than bradman's avg. basically coz it cannot happen. i could be diplomatic and say he has a chance and all that, but i'd feel like a liar saying that. but that's just me. i've laid enough to my comfortable exposure for gazza and hopes he plunges more and get tempted to lay more. don't know if any of you guys looked at the 'THE VOICE' markets in the week leading up to the final. sara de bono was fully talked up by bookies and media in the classic kansas city shuffle which everyone ate up and made her second fav. she came last of the finalists.... don't give the bookies your money this time with the ablett shuffle!!  |
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Jobe Watson certainly will taking running down early.
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Any clues which bookis have the best Brownlow offerings.. or we stuck with TABs 1.85 both ways or 130% in grp betting
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A cross section of bookies and Betfair offers your best advantage, barney. Combine the books for best results
 Apparently, they don't like that kind of cherry picking, but they don't have to know! |
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This is how I have them after Rd 10...
TOTAL VOTES AFTER Rd 10 Stanton(Ess) 16 (6games)4x3,2x2,0x1 Watson(Ess) 15 (7games)2x3,4x2,1x1 Pendlebury(Col) 14 (7games)2x3,3x2,2x1 Kennedy(SYD) 13 (6games)3x3,1x2,2x1 Ablett(GoCoa) 11 (4games)3x3,1x2,0x1 Thompson(Ade) 11 (4games)3x3,1x2,0x1 Murphy (CAR) 10 (4games)2x3,2x2,0x1 |
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Poke
Also share your train of thought, KCS is Prime, Also known as 'Mozzie Zapper' took some of the Gazillion. |
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Here's where I have them with one round to go....
TOTAL VOTES after Rd 22 Ablett(GoCoa) 28(11 games 7x3,3x2,1x1) Thompson(Ade) 27(14 games 5x3,3x2,6x1) Mitchell(HAW) 24(10 games 4x3,6x2,0x1) Watson(Ess) 24(11 games 2x3,8x2,2x1) Kennedy(SYD) 23(11 games 5x3,2x2,4x1) Swan(Col) 23(10 games 6x3,1x2,3x1) Cotchin (Ric) 22(11 games)3x3,5x2,3x1) Beams(Col) 21(10 games 4x3,3x2,3x1 Dangerfield(Ade) 20(8 games 5x3,2x2,1x1) Jack(SYD) 19(8games 4x3,3x2,1x1) |
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Done a fair amt of work on this ..but who knows wat the umpy's think.... Not very exciting the list Maybe value JRedden Bris J Giles GWS D Beams Coll
Adel SThompson Bris TRockcliff Carl MMurphy Coll SPendles Ess JWatson Freo MPavlich Geel JSellwod GoldCoast GAblett GWS S Goniglio Hawks SMitchell Kanga's BHarvey Melb NJones Port BradEbert Richmond TCotchin St Kilda LHayes Sydney JPKennedy WBD MBoyd WCE DCox |
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This is how i have the final positions and votes.
TOTAL VOTES Ablett(GoCoa) 29(12 games 7x3,3x2,2x1) Thompson(Ade) 29(15 games 5x3,4x2,6x1) Mitchell(HAW) 26(10 games 4x3,7x2,0x1) Swan(Col) 26(11 games 7x3,1x2,3x1) Cotchin(RIC) 25(12 games)4x3,5x2,3x1) Watson(Ess) 25(13 games 2x3,8x2,3x1) Kennedy(SYD) 24(12games 5x3,2x2,5x1) Dangerfield(Ade)23(9 games 6x3,2x2,1x1) Beams(Col) 21(10 games 4x3,3x2,3x1) Jack(SYD) 19 Stanton(Ess) 16 Murphy (CAR) 16 ............................................ ............................................ Team votes ADELAIDE TOTAL S.Thompson(Ade) 29 Dangerfield(Ade) 23 BRISBANE TOTAL Redden(Bri) 15 Black (Bri) 11 Rockliff(Bri) 10 CARLTON TOTAL Murphy(Car) 16 Carrazzo(Car) 10 COLLINGWOOD TOTAL Swan (Col) 26 Beams(Col) 21 ESSENDON TOTAL Watson(Ess) 25 Stanton(Ess) 16 FREEMANTLE TOTAL Pavlich(Fre) 14 Sandilands(Fre) 10 GEELONG TOTAL Johnson (GEE) 14 Hawkins(Gee) 12 Selwood(GEE) 12 Kelly(Gee) 12 Chapman(GEE 9 GOLD COAST TOTAL Ablett (GoCoa) 29 Bennell(GoCoa) 5 GWS TOTAL Giles(GWS) 7 Ward(GWS) 3 Cameron(GWS) 3 HAWTHORN TOTAL Mitchell(Haw) 26 Rioli(Haw) 10 Birchall(HAW) 10 MELBOURNE TOTAL Jones(Mel) 7 Sylvia(MeL) 4 Watts(Mel) 3 Clark(Mel) 3 Dunn(Mel) 3 Grimes(Mel) 3 NTH MELBOURNE TOTAL Harvey(NthMel) 13 Swallow(NthMel) 11 Wells (NthMel) 11 PT ADEALAIDE TOTAL Boak (PtAd) 9 B.Ebert(PtAde) 8 Pearce(PtAde) 7 Hartlett(PtAd) 6 RICHMOND TOTAL Cotchin (Ric) 25 Deledio (Ric) 10 St KILDA TOTAL Hayes (StKi) 15 Montagna (StKi) 10 SYDNEY TOTAL Kennedy(SYD) 24 Jack(SYD) 19 WST COAST EAGLES TOTAL D Cox(WstCoa) 11 Naitanui(WstCoa) 11 kerr(WstCoa) 11 S.Selwood(WstCoa) 11 Shuey(WstCoa) 9 Priddis(Wst Coa) 8 Wst Bulldogs TOTAL Lake(WstBul) 8 Griffen(Wst Bu) 7 Boyd (Wst Bu) 6 Murphy(Wst Bu) 5 |
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I am happy to have my small bet on Sewell at massive odds, he polled 16 votes in 2008 when a relative unknown and has had an infinitely better season this year and I don't think the Hawks have had too many consistent stars throughout the season who will pinch massive amounts of votes off him.
I think his gig on AFL 360 will have boosted his profile as well and he's had a huge year and has been tremendously consistent throughout the season, I'll be surprised if he doesn't poll well. |
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You think his gig on 360 was watched by umpires?
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best Roughie for me is deledio
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Snake, not necessarily but it sure as hell can't hurt if you're getting more media exposure than previously.
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Can't honestly see anyone out of Richmond other than Cotchin tbh, but his ability to attract umpire attention is yet to be proven. That is my only reservation.
I have seen a lot of Richmond this year and if Cotchin doesn't get to at least 20 I may never watch the Brownlow again. |
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He's been good, good enough to win a brownlow though?
I can't believe he's favourite, I might be way off base here but I find it staggering he is favourite, right in the betting yes but favourite? |
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I didnt say he would win it. I merely said he was Richmond's best...as for a right price, who the hell knows.
I think he has been consistent enough to be favourite, actually. |
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What about Maric, Grigg, Tuck,Deledio etc I would think at various times they're all going to pinch votes off him.
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I hear this every year. Lots of sides have vote pinchers.
Personally, I would like to see Ablett win it. Then it will go some way to prove this is about the best and fairest. He has been the best player in the comp, no doubt in my mind. Why should it matter that he has played in a side that only won 3 games? |
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Yeah I would be inclined to agree but unfortunately I can't see it happening.
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Im All Over Dangerfeild.
Watson u watch and dont really see him that much but read paper next day on how many he had. Dangerfeild Standout. If he died his Hair Blonde would b 1.01. My Thoughts Dangerfeild into Hawks $18 |
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Lloydy,
Back them separately if you like that combo. $18 is unders. You'll get 9.2+ Paddy, probably closer to 10 with the madness of Brownlow trading. Hawks already 2.40 and quite easy (only because other teams have been overbet). If Paddy wins and the Hawks are still there, lump the rest on for GF day |
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Ablett 28 votes, swan 26, cotchin 26, mitchell 26
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Good Idea Crazy. But iF Hawks are in they will be shorter.
Ive Backed Dangerfeild at $8 on a Free Bet $500 $200 on the Double. Reason i take the Double is if Danger Wins i wont have the Balllls to place it all on HAwks for GF. Bets on No Laying off Lloydy |
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Well good luck, Lloydster. Hope you get your due luck.
What I meant was two stakes, combined into one at the end. If the Hawks lose before GF week you have the option to hold Danger or get off to cut your losses. It's typically what I do with longer term parlays. I just know I will nearly always get better odds down the track. |
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Jobe Watson for mine. I know Essendon dont finish well, but he dominated the competition early. Will have a massive lead and I doubt we have a big number winner this year.
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Winkler.
I watched Nearl every Afl game this year and im either Blind, Recognise or rate Watson. Only when i read the paper i seen he had a High possession game. Im Tipping he will lead early and ill Lay him at Halfway mark. I have my Bet on Dangerfeild and Happy to be on at 8s even though in Run i can see getting to about 15s. But it is a $500 Free bet 24854598 02/09/2012 Australian Rules (AFL Brownlow Medal): 2012 Brownlow Medal: 2012 Brownlow Medal (Quote Others): Dangerfield, Patrick (Adelaide) Win Fixed (Bonus Bet) Undecided 500.00 3,500.00 |
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Hope you're right Lloydy, I'm on him at $81.00
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let the kansas city shuffle begin. havnt read this thread for awhile.
crazysnake, i cant agree with you about, 'why should the number of games a team wins' have any bearing on the winner of the brownlow. if you look at the list i gave, it means EVERYTHING. not saying it is fair, which is what i think you are alluding to about 'best and fairest'. but maths says it matters or at least has an epic bearing. i do agree about cotchin. it will prob be an adelaide or sydney player for me. |
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Josh Kennedy played ok on saturday, he should come in a bit after that.
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