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I decided to create this thread early because I am curious about pre game pricing.
I am going to frame my markets and will be interested to see how far out I am versus corp pricing upon opening.
I framed these prices BEFORE I looked at the Bettie pricing, but did look to see if I was miles out on any.
All markets to 100%. If you want to have a go, please feel free. You can't be wrong (yet).
1.60 Sydney v Geelong 2.66
1.50 Collingwood v West Coast 3.00
1.70 Fremantle v Essendon 2.43
1.45 WBD v Brisbane 3.20
1.30 Melbourne v GWS 4.30
3.50 North Melbourne v Adelaide 1.40
Note the bot has set up on the Sydney v Geelong market already in match odds, margin and tribet. Obviously, this person believes they know the actual pricing this far out. Very suss!
I am going to frame my markets and will be interested to see how far out I am versus corp pricing upon opening.
I framed these prices BEFORE I looked at the Bettie pricing, but did look to see if I was miles out on any.
All markets to 100%. If you want to have a go, please feel free. You can't be wrong (yet).
1.60 Sydney v Geelong 2.66
1.50 Collingwood v West Coast 3.00
1.70 Fremantle v Essendon 2.43
1.45 WBD v Brisbane 3.20
1.30 Melbourne v GWS 4.30
3.50 North Melbourne v Adelaide 1.40
Note the bot has set up on the Sydney v Geelong market already in match odds, margin and tribet. Obviously, this person believes they know the actual pricing this far out. Very suss!
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wouldnt jump at anything really but for fun i'll have something on the cats, they will more than likely bet that by weeks end, collingwood will run shorter, backed freo at evens on here for small they'll bet 4/5, bris for peanuts, have something on gws at that and would love to unload on crows but thats about the right odds
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Yeah, I think GWS is value at that quote, just making allowances for the corps and their continuing need to lay the Giants at amazing prices.
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North against adelaide and adelaide are 1.40 against North!!! massive massive overs, they should be about 1.10. The could play it on the moon and North still couldn't win that game. Under the roof it could be a margin job for the crows, at 1.4 as far as I'm concerned they're the standout bet of the round.
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sshhhhhhhh....................sssshhhhhhhhh u grunt
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Roos will play well this week at the Dome. Don't get carried away! Remember, regardless of your personal bias there is still a true price and 1.10 certainly isn't it. Hit the 1.45 if you think 1.40 is value
 . There is 1k there. |
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think i'll wait for the -15pts
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You'll get around 1.90 for that on current pricing.
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i'll cop evens
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You could certainly trade evens if nothing else. The line will be around the 15.5 I expect, so yes 2.00 is likely.
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Nothing to do with personal bias the roos have been deplorable, they were shocking against the suns last night. If they were playing the saints for instance the saints would still be about 1.10-1.20 shots for mine, there is a huge and ever widening chasm between north and the sides that are even remotely in the hunt.
Snake, name one area on the ground where they will have a clear winner. Crows will beat them for leg speed and they have a much better backline, Jacobs is arguably in better form than the north ruckmen, thompson, dangerfield and sloane comfortably match up against norths premier midfielders and if you clamp down on harvey and wells the rest of them go missing, Tippet, and walker and porplyzsa are arguably a better combination up forward than what North can muster. Plus North's confidence is at rock bottom if the suns have bock available last night they probably get home, they just needed one more strong mature experienced body out there who could keep his head under pressure. They'll probably fire up early and have a crack but the crows will absorb that like the good team they are, work their way on top and win comfortably that's if they don't jump them early and put the issue beyond doubt with a blazing first quarter. |
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Dude, don't misunderstand me. I think the Crows will win comfortably, but I only bet the RIGHT price and if I can't get 1.50 I probably won't go near it. Gotta get overs or I sit out.
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Well if I framed a market they would genuinely be $1.10 with me, I never bet this early but when a good side like this are 30 cents better at this sort of price than what they should be in reality I consider that to be massive overs and I f they put up that price I would expect them to be backed off the map during the week, if they don't start at least 1.25 at the absolute bestI will be staggered.
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Sorry, LE but I must say this in light of your pricing. You do not have a serious and objective method of pricing football games. That is patently obvious from your last post.
I am a 12 year professional and have been pricing all kinds of contests for all of that time and as an amateur well before that. Your methodology cannot and will not stand the test of time. You should find another way to earn income because you will ultimately fail as a pro. With respect. |
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so lets u think north are 10/1 shots then??? correct
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no offence snake, I don't genuinely price them like that but yes north are a 10/1 shot in my opinion, they are going that bad. I'm definitely not questioning you or your methods, and have nothing but respect for your opinion and observations and I enjoy debating footy with you, it is an opinion and I have little doubt that it will be proven correct.
I'm staggered by the fact that the bias victorian market and media refuse to acknowledge how much the crows have improved its just the same as my argument about how can the hawks logically be 3.50 for the flag, it makes zero sense. It's also the same as last year when I basically declared the eagles would beat carlton at etihaad when I think carlton were 1/3 favourites and I said the eagles were ludicrous overs, if you search for it you can probably find the thread if you can be bothered, personally I wouldn't bother and its the same as earlier in the year when I said richmond were massive overs at 1.70 against Port at AAMI. If they hang around that price and if the line is only 15 something points I will be having one of my biggest footy bets of all time on the crows especially if the eagles knock off collingwood.  |
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The most concerning part of this thread (and trust me, there are many) is the use of the word "Dude"
Where did that come from CS? |
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So tell me the other concerning parts of the thread. Have I said anything here with which you don't agree, AD?
I call everyone dude at home. It's my thing. |
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I would offend certain parties if I went into the other concerning parts.
It is clear that some don't know what they don't know, and therefore are incapable of debating with, especially when they are not willing to listen |
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Now, as far as the Crow's corp price this week:
The Roos' best win of the year (Geelong) was in the Dome. They absolutely dominated the game against the Suns. Don't be fooled by the scoreline. It was on the line because the Suns kicked very straight, but in general play they were soundly thrashed. And before you say that isn't true, wasn't it you that said the only reason they were even in the contest against the Eagles in Perth was because of their accurate kicking. In general play they were trounced. Crows looked VERY tired in the last term against the Saints and are screaming for a rest (even though they just had one). That means they have been up a long time and peaked too early for mine. Be careful what you assume about their relative improvement. Unsubstantiated assumptions empty more punting banks than any other factor. I stress again and again and again. Make sure you are punting to true value. Anything else will send you broke, no matter what selection method you employ. |
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AD,
You can't really offend me. If you think I am in error I am willing to listen. I respect your opinion. |
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I don't see any issue with anything you posted CS, other than the word dude
It is a concern that someone who has labelled themselves a "semi professional" in the past does not know the difference between $1.1 and $1.2 |
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Er, yeah, that caused me to raise an eyebrow
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Opening prices courtesy of our friends (and I use the term loosely) at the TAB:
1.60 Sydney v 2.30 Geelong 1.38 WBD v 3.00 Brisbane 1.40 Collingwood v 2.90 West Coast 1.85 Fremantle v 1.95 Essendon 1.30 Melbourne v 3.45 GWS 2.70 North v 1.45 Adelaide Markets to about 106% |
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one is 5's on and the other is 10's on, so what, I know the difference between 5/'s on and 10's on, AD
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i agree with ur assesment of adelaide crazy... they do get very tired in last quarters and all their midfielders, including dangerfield, cannot run hard all day... IMO. The pies and dons will carve em right up when it gets tough in september.
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how r essendon going to carve em up? at best they will finish in the bottom half of the final 8 , so have no chance of really meeting adel in sept, because the gf winner doesnt come from 5-8 positions
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Essendon are better side than Dockers. Should be favorites i reckon
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is the game in melbourne Kye
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No they are going to WA but they are a better side with better wins this season that Freo. Only been beaten in close games by Swans & Pies. Dockers should'nt be favorite even at home.
I'll be unloading on Bombers & will think of you when I'm collecting |
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So Saints coming off a 100 point belting of the Suns were coming up against Adelaide priced at 1.45, is the equivalent of Adelaide vs North who even with accurate kicking wouldn't have won by 50?
Hmm.. Adelaide for mine 1.30 max. The rest of them, in a 100% markets I had the same as the favs at the corps. Adelaide only one out. And with all due respect guys, just because people do things differently than you does not make them wrong. Who the hell are you to tell somebody to give up the punt because they come up with a different price than you? Spin whatever lines you like, there are plenty of ways to skin a cat. |
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BJT it is not about a different price, I am actually surprised Adelaide a not a bit shorter myself, I am not referring to the assessment of price. I am referring to comments like they should $1.1 to $1.2.
If you don't understand the massive variation between 1.1 and 1.2, which is significant, you don't understand how to price events. People who don't already do it should frame their own markets in their chosen pursuit for a while to learn that that level of tolerance is impossible to bet within. For someone who has never framed their own markets they will not know this. Like I have said before, a little knowledge is frighteningly dangerous |
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Nth have smashed Crows at last two meetings Think they might just do so again
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BJT, it was a friggin bog. If you are gonna argue at least attempt to be logical.
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I think the Crows odds are about right.....
Their two trips to Melbourne have seen them flogged by Hawthorn out doors at the G and then they handed out a fearful thrashing to Carlton indoors at the dome..... ( Carlton were putrid and franked that by getting belted by Port the following week ) I agree with CS in the sense that i think its not a bad week for a Melbourne side to get them this round....I just do not trust North at the moment..... they have been poor for about five weeks now... I want more than §3.00 them turning it around this week. Market is showing a fair bit of faith in the Bombers....Dockers out to $2.05 in some markets now |
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Was a bog? Yet GC managed to score an extra 5 goals in it? GC had 50% more scoring shots in the "bog"..... Hmmmmm
As for the whole "big difference between 1.1 and 1.2" ridicule, does it not make sense for you that some people may have a margin of error built in? If somebody marked a team 1.15 chance, then would it not stand to reason they have a +-5% buffer built into that? Of course not. You have no margin for error. You are never wrong. |
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Its actually a 100% price range BJT
 I guess this is all a bit much for you, if you are going to argue about pricing, you need to know your stuff |
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pricing is such interesting question
everybody does things different, does not mean if somebody does it different to you that they are wrong just because you see yourself as successful punter |
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It is? 1.10 is 91% of the market. 1.20 is 83% of the market.. Hmmmm..
So AD: You are saying, that a team at 1.20 has an 83% chance of winning, and a team at 1.10 has a 183% chance of winning? Lost me...  The only thing 100% about it is the profit portion of the odds. So if you rate something as a 87% chance of winning, and have a built in +-5% margin of error, then you are wrong to say 1.10 - 1.20? Teach me more.... |
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100% market:
Adelaide go from 1.1 to 1.2 North go from 10 to 5 Pretty sure the North shift is not 5% |