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wombleoz
22 Feb 12 06:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 12,882 | Blogger: wombleoz's blog
happening at the moment, was he pushed or is he jumping???
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Report AFL February 26, 2012 6:12 AM GMT
AD.....let's imagine Abbott becomes PM........and has a stroke ( and karks it)........ by your definition we should immediately call a general election and deny the Lib's the right to elect a replacement.

LaughLaugh
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 6:13 AM GMT
Kye - that's exactly how it works, if you don't like what they do vote them out next time, democracy at work

don't count your chickens though - 18 months is a very long time in politics
Report Aussie Driver February 26, 2012 6:13 AM GMT
I think you are hiding behind semantics a bit Womble, the ballot paper may not say that, but you know full well that is what the average Australian is thinking when they vote
Report whoopi February 26, 2012 6:13 AM GMT
don't really give fck who you're addressing. I just enjoy pointing out how ignorant you are
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 6:14 AM GMT
it may be what they think AD but it's not how it works
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 6:14 AM GMT
may not be
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 6:14 AM GMT
may be
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 6:15 AM GMT
oops
Report Kye February 26, 2012 6:15 AM GMT
womble, Gillard will never ever ever win another election as leader of the Labor party. But hey you keep kidding yourself. She can only get less popular after she wins tomorrow.
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 6:20 AM GMT
we'll see Kye - suggest you take a look at this, only goes for 3 minutes or so

http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2012/s3439649.htm

mentions some very interesting figures + historical context re the polling
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 6:21 AM GMT
and to top that off Neilsen this weekend is at 53-47 2PP - well within reach
Report AFL February 26, 2012 6:28 AM GMT
But womble, how can this be?........

The right wing media keep telling us that Labor are stuffed, and no party has ever come from so far back to win an election.

Why don't they tell us how many opposition parties have gone into an election with a 70 Billion Black Hole in their costings.....and been elected.

Laugh
Report Thebas February 26, 2012 6:29 AM GMT
it may well be true ... that everything we have witnesssed recenttly ... all that tragic public display ... should be swept under the carpet and buried forever

i am certain labor will do this

but can the party withstand the oppositions taunts & ridicule and the common persons disgust over the next ... 

... 18 months of torturous remembrance of these recent banal public displays ... by both sides of labor ... the public faces of gillard, swann & crean ... the rest of the backroom boys (they know who they are lol) ... and then the true believers like albanese

you'd have to say a political whitewash at the next election whenever that may be ... and a long term in opposition which again serves the country no particular good

and most of it ... must rest on julia's shoulders ... a puppet queen ... (and who knows really who is pulling her strings .. both nationally & especially globally)
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 6:50 AM GMT
Thebas - you can offset that against - can Abbott find the $72.8 billion in savings he needs to get to the starting line and can he win when he will be promising tax increases and pension decreases

18 months is a very long time in politics

AFL - media will stick with Abbott for now, he'll last a matter of weeks if they turn on him
Report Jez____ February 26, 2012 12:00 PM GMT
AFL - media will stick with Abbott for now, he'll last a matter of weeks if they turn on him

So we're back to this are we?

Abbott's been leader since 2009.  Been to one election.
And it was the talk then...."he'll crumble"..."he'll **** up"...."he won't handle policy discussion".

On each and every count on every single occasion he has passed with flying colours.

Again this is desperate nonsense from wombleoz.
Who spins this utter fkn garbage on the eve of a LABOR LEADERSHIP BALLOT, as the party eats itself alive.

You are a clown.  It is beyond reasonable doubt now.
You are a fully fledged clown.
Report Jez____ February 26, 2012 12:03 PM GMT
Last time the Liberal Party changed leader it was OVER POLICY, wombleoz.

It was a POLICY RELATED MATTER.

It was on the carbon tax system.  Turnbull v Abbott.
And it was a change conducted in Opposition, not in government.
Not the middle of the night sussex street execution of a first term Prime Minister.

Let's be clear.
Not the middle of the night sussex street execution of a first term Prime Minister.

Now whats this Labor leadership battle over?
Oh wait...NOTHING....personality politics.
Vicious vindictive nothingness.

They were elected to govern and all we get is infighting, instability and LIES LIES AND MORE LIES.

We need real action, real leadership and the only way is to CHANGE THE GOVERNMENT.
Report Jez____ February 26, 2012 12:05 PM GMT
Listen to the Newspoll chief's analysis of the poll this weekend.  Voter's were asked about Kevin Rudd then polled on voting intentions, fully aware that there is a ballot on Monday.

The polls are skewed. 

Gillard's numbers have dropped, but the primary vote has risen as the public factors in a "potential" Rudd return.  Watch the numbers if Gillard holds tomorrow, and I hope she does.
Report Jez____ February 26, 2012 12:08 PM GMT
18 months is a long time in politics, but its not enough time to turn this around, to stop the infighting, to explain the carbon tax pain, to explain the cost of living rises, to stop Kevin backgrounding, to stop the bad poll numbers for Gillard.....and she CANNOT recover her credibility, it is LOST.

To sugar coat Labor's situation as wombleoz continues to do and to try and pull out this historic mumbo jumbo about statistical polling is just desperate.  Absolute desperation.

You realise when Rudd beat Howard he had to overcome plenty of statisical hallmarks that made his win even more amazing in 2007. 

If statistics and 18 months are your only saving graces right now wombleoz, then your in a whole heap of fkn trouble pal - mark my words.
Report Joel February 26, 2012 12:40 PM GMT
18 months is a long time in politics, once this government sorts its leadership issues out and gets back to what they do best, it will be good night Tony Abbott
Report shiraz February 26, 2012 9:07 PM GMT
This government is doing what it does best right at the moment.  Serving personal ambitions and squabbling amongst factions of the one party.
Gillard's personal attacks on Rudd, questioning his abilities etc etc, is a prime example of inefficiency.  If Rudd is so bad then why was he appointed Foreign Minister, if not to placate his supporters after he was axed?
Report wombleoz February 26, 2012 9:15 PM GMT
Shiraz - the support for each is coming from across the factions

Rudd actually did a pretty good job as Foreign Minister I'd suggest and most would agree

Overall - Rudd will hopefully have a vote with a 2 in front of it today and then the whole ball game changes, the focus becomes Gillard vs Abbott, who on personal ratings are very close in the polls - i.e. both very unpopular - but with Julia only having to worry about focusing on him and not Rudd backstabbing her - Abbott is GONE, GONE i tell you Cool
Report shiraz February 26, 2012 9:31 PM GMT
wombleoz, obviously you see a Gillard Governemnt as a good thing because it is Labor, fair enough.  Jez holds the exact opposing view, also fair enough.  My problem at the moment is that the future looks bleak if that's the best we can look forward to, people happy with anything, as long as it's our team who wins.

Maybe we were spoilt in the past, love them or hate them at least with Hawke, Keating and Howard you could actually see who they were and decide accordingly.
Maybe this is the future, where the 24 hour media cycle will shape policy, but I hope that is not the case.
Report shiraz February 26, 2012 9:34 PM GMT
"Rudd actually did a pretty good job as Foreign Minister I'd suggest and most would agree"

Yes I agree, that is the job he should still be doing, but unfortunately it has to come down to personal ambition.
Report Thebas February 26, 2012 9:54 PM GMT
some phrases just bring a smile to your face

... how could the independents take this once proud party seriously

... julia has shown any agreements made by her are tenuous ... anyone dealing with her will naturally be 'looting' ... to get the what they can in their pockets quick ... from the ashes ... before she 'changes' her story/plan/agreement/promise ... again

************

"Independent Senator Nick Xenophon says the federal Labor leadership tussle is bizarre.

They are burning the village to toast marshmallows."

LaughLaughLaugh
Report Jez____ February 27, 2012 9:21 AM GMT
Rudd will hopefully have a vote with a 2 in front of it today and then the whole ball game changes, the focus becomes Gillard vs Abbott, who on personal ratings are very close in the polls - i.e. both very unpopular - but with Julia only having to worry about focusing on him and not Rudd backstabbing her - Abbott is GONE, GONE i tell you

LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh

We've been hearing this since she was elected as leader wombleoz.

First the carbon tax (DISASTER and cost of living nightmare, not to mention socialism at its worst) and LYING AND DECEIVING the Australian people days out from an election....then it was the mining tax (not yet complete)....then asylum seekers (no policy in sight)....then it was inciting an Aboriginal riot on Australia Day......and of course the act that started it all, backstabbing a first term Prime Minister.

You can rabbit on with your nonsense to your hearts content wombleoz.
This revival talk, this "Julia will beat Abbott" talk, it's really a figment of your deluded imagination.

Only the Coalition can give Australia a government it deserves - stable, strong and competent.
A government that will lower taxes, build a stronger economy, strengthen services and secure our borders.

This rabble you call Labor has gone on long enough.
It's time for an election.
It's time for the factional warlords of Labor to stand down....
It's time for the people to have their say.

Why is Labor so scared of the Australian people?
Why are the Independents so scared of the Australian people?
The PEOPLE, wombleoz, are the bedrock of this democracy of ours.

We need change.  Change like never ever before.
I know people doubt Tony Abbott, and shiraz, I hear your sentiments.
Being in Opposition isn't pretty and keeping the government to account isn't pretty.
Opposition's don't win elections, government's lose them - there's a reason for this.

Howard was doubted too.  The best political leader's we have seen from both persuasions haven't truly started to shine until they win office.  That's the bottom line.

Shiraz - don't let the incompetence and the feeling of being so desperately let down, as we have been by this bad government, that seems to be getting worse...deter you from voting for change!
Report bigted. February 27, 2012 10:58 AM GMT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRn-Makj6t4&feature=related




Shocked
Report wombleoz February 27, 2012 11:07 AM GMT
very good teddy LaughLaughLaugh

i think Abbott is looking for the system restore function - go back to pre 2007 and pretend nothing hasn't happened since
Report bigted. February 27, 2012 11:08 AM GMT
hehe womble Happy

or even back to the Menzies era

imo

Shocked
Report wombleoz February 27, 2012 11:09 AM GMT
Laugh i did but see her walking by.....
Report Aussie Punter February 27, 2012 11:38 AM GMT
Agree with your thoughts AD , re : when people go to ballot box .

A sad day indeed for the Australian people....
Report Jez____ February 27, 2012 11:58 AM GMT
These comments regarding Tony Abbott are the same comments that were made of John Howard as he faced Paul Keating in 1996.

As for the Time Warp, another desperate ALP tactic deployed at the 2010 election.
Report Craig The Speculator February 27, 2012 12:47 PM GMT
Kevin Rudd even after everything written about his personality did he learn anything? No

rather than making the best of what was still a pretty good position (Foreign Minister)and one he probably didn't deserve to be in, he throws that away to be beaten 71 - 31, great strategy that - really who would want him making decisions for the country? maybe he could bring his riches to betfair, they wouldn't last long

he has recently written for the Daily Telegraph and he writes like a 12 year old - maybe pandering to the working class readers but embarassing stuff - a good day for our country that he is no longer in a position of power in my opinion


i would go so far as to say he was the only politician that i have worried could really stuff up our place in the world
Report AFL February 27, 2012 8:13 PM GMT
Weren't you living here when the rest of the world got swept into the GFC. It was his Gov't that made the correct decisions regarding the timing and actions (ALL OPPOSED BY THAT RABBLE THE LIBS) in avoiding the GFC.

So in terms of stuffing our place up in the world you should be thanking your lucky stars that the Libs weren't in power at this time. They opposed the timing of the stimulus, said Labor should wait. Then they opposed the amount spent. Then they said they distributed the Stimulus to the wrong people and the wrong projects.

All three of these actions by the Rudd and Gillard Govt's were the three critical reasons we avoided the GFC.


NOW WHY WOULD THE LIBS OPPOSE THESE VERY 3 ACTIONS THAT PROVED TO BE THE VERY CORRECT RECIPE THAT SAW US
AVOID THE GFC?

THEY WANTED THE COUNTRY TO FALL INTO FINANCIAL CRISIS???????

AND IF NOT........ THEY PROVED THAT THEY WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE RIGHT DECISIONS IN THIS SITUATION AND DO NOT DESERVE TO GOVERN THIS COUNTRY.
Report Craig The Speculator February 28, 2012 2:49 AM GMT
any reasonable person AFL would conclude that Australia was able to spend the money because we were not in deficit like most of the rest of the western world - this credit can go to both the previous governments Liberal (Howard/Costello) and Labor (Hawke/Keating)

There is nothing hard about spending money but Rudd and his government didn't even manage to spend that properly wasting it on various projects

IMO

do you really believe their skill saved us, rather than their inherited sound financial position and the booming mining sector?
Report AFL February 28, 2012 3:40 AM GMT
Taken from an article during the last election campaign.

Spruik the economy, stupid

343 Comments

Ben Eltham
5 August 2010
The Drum Opinion

Foreign visitors to our shores are frankly astonished at the health of our economy. Conservative historian Niall Ferguson and liberal economist Joseph Stiglitz don't agree on much, but they both made remarks about the rude health of Australia's economy, compared to our northern hemisphere trading partners. Stiglitz in particular was glowing in his praise of the Rudd Government's stimulus package.

It's worth quoting Stiglitz' comments on The 7.30 Report at length, because they comprehensively demolish the criticisms made of the Rudd Government's stimulus package by the Opposition and many parts of the media:

"JOSEPH STIGLITZ: I did actually study quite a bit the Australian package, and my impression was that it was the best - one of the best-designed of all the advanced industrial countries. When the crisis struck, you have to understand no-one was sure how deep, how long it would be. There was that moment of panic. Rightfully so, because the whole financial system was on the verge of collapse. In that context, what you need to act is decisively. If you don't act decisively, you could get the collapse. It's a one-sided risk.

KERRY O'BRIEN: There's been a lot of criticism of waste in the way some of Australia's stimulus money was spent. Is it inevitable if you're going to spend a great deal of government money quickly that there will be some waste and can you ever justify wasting taxpayers' money?

JOSEPH STIGLITZ: If you hadn't spent the money, there would have been waste. The waste would have been the fact that the economy would have been weak, there would have been a gap between what the economy could have produced and what it actually produced - that's waste.

You would have had high unemployment, you would have had capital assets not fully utilised - that's waste. So your choice was one form of waste verses another form of waste. And so it's a judgment of what is the way to minimise the waste. No perfection here. And what your government did was exactly right.

So, Australia had the shortest and shallowest of the downturns of the advanced industrial countries. And, ah, your recovery actually preceded the - in some sense, China. So there was a sense in which you can't just say Australia recovered because of China."

Labor has struggled to get traction with Stiglitz' key point: that by not stimulating the economy, we would have been condemning a generation of younger Australians to unemployment - as is now happening in the United States, Spain and much of the industralised world. Under Kevin Rudd, the government managed to lose the debate about the stimulus to an Opposition and conservative media relentlessly focused on the so-called wasteful spending of the schools and home insulation programs.

No matter that the Auditor-General comprehensively cleared Julia Gillard and the schools program. No matter that the home insulation program actually achieved some very successful outcomes in terms of retro-fitting Australian homes (I should point out here that I too have been highly critical of the implementation of that program by the Department of Environment and Peter Garrett's handling of it).

No matter that Australia not only escaped a significant downturn, but is powering ahead in comparison to our northern hemisphere cousins. Opinion polls show the Coalition is still considered the best party to manage the economy.

When you consider that the Coalition's economic team is headed up by Joe Hockey, this is frankly amazing. Hockey seems to get just about every economic fact he mentions dead wrong

. For instance, earlier this year, he made the astonishing claim that the cause of the US housing crisis was not lax regulation, widespread mortgage fraud or insane lending practices - but in fact US government policy to encourage home ownership.

This claim alone should disqualify Hockey from any serious economic role in an Abbott government. The greatest market failure in sixty years was not caused by government. It was caused by markets.

But dig into Hockey's public statements and you'll find plenty more nonsensical statements.

For instance, Hockey continues to argue that Australia has a public debt problem. As Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens pointed out recently, this is simply wrong. Australia has "virtually no net public debt."

Hockey is equally confused about the stimulus. This may be because he doesn't understand Keynesian economics. Back in early 2009, for instance, Hockey argued the stimulus package wouldn't work. Take the time to read this interview with Leigh Sales. In it, Hockey argues that the Rudd Government's stimulus package would actually cost jobs. Of course, we now know it did work and that it saved jobs.

Let's examine Hockey's understanding of interest rates. The Shadow Treasurer continues to argue that the deficit will force up inflation and put pressure on interest rates. This doesn't really make sense, as inflation is much more likely to be governed by private sector price rises than ramped-up government spending. In other words, its the general macro-economic outlook, not just government spending, which determines inflation. As Glenn Stevens pointed out in a speech back in April, "if the economy is growing close to trend, and inflation is close to target, one would expect interest rates to be pretty close to average." The June inflation figures were within the target range. Stevens kept interest rates steady. Hockey was wrong again.

Or take Budget projections. In 2009, Hockey argued the Treasury projections were wildly optimistic, and that the budget deficit would blow out. In fact, because of the stimulus package, the economy escaped a serious downturn and therefore the deficit was much smaller than the Treasury projections. This didn't faze Hockey. This year, he changed tack and argued that the Treasury projections were wrong for the opposite reason: that they were too conservative.

In a bizarre post-Budget interview with Laurie Oakes in May, Hockey said "the best way to help the poorest people in the community is to have a government delivering surpluses." Wrong again. This is the kind of economic thinking that is seeing thousands of public sector workers laid off by US states trying to balance their budgets.

Hockey's statements suggest he simply doesn't understand the concept of aggregate demand. Perhaps this is why he keeps insisting that the stimulus didn't work, even when it did, and that interest rates will go up, even when they don't.

The Liberal Party should be vulnerable on the issue. When the stimulus package was voted on last year, Tony Abbott didn't even turn up. He was absent, probably asleep, after a boozy dinner with Liberal colleagues. when the crucial vote on the future of the Australian economy was taken.

In fact, the Liberals are all over the shop on economic policy. They claim the new mining tax will harm investment, but they oppose the National Broadband Network, an obvious investment in future economic growth. They have promised to abolish the Enterprise Connect scheme, a government-funded innovation and advice service for small business. Abbott's policy position on issues like paid parental leave and the company tax rate seems to change daily. Of his senior front-benchers, only Andrew Robb appears really across his economic brief. And yet Labor has only now turned its attention to the issue. This campaign really has been, as they say, passing strange.

Let's hope there is a leader's debate on the economy. Australian voters deserve to know what they might be in for if the Coalition wins government.

Ben Eltham is a writer, journalist, researcher and creative producer.
Report AFL February 28, 2012 3:44 AM GMT
If you are not convinced by that ....you will never be convinced.Crazy
Report AFL February 28, 2012 4:07 AM GMT
Or you could try reading this one Craig......Crazy

The rewriting of our fiscal history

by Bernard Keane

There’s been plenty of rubbish commentary on last week’s budget but we had to wait until today to crown the winner of the trashiest piece of “analysis”. Step up Terry McCrann, the Herald Sun’s part-time climate scientist and full-time right-wing economist, for this extended piece of vitriol at Labor’s expense.

Like Terry’s efforts on climate change (which extended to accusing Julia Gillard of trying to impoverish Australia and Kevin Rudd of ensuring he’d “destroy” the Australian economy when he signed the Kyoto Protocol), this had a smattering of numbers to give the appearance of analysis, but was in fact just an hysterical spray at a preferred target — in this case Labor.

Terry’s hook was the $75 billion in additional revenue over the next two years that he says every commentator failed to spot — although he fails to mention he missed it as well.


We haven’t seen that sort of revenue spurt since the early (Paul) Keating budgets of the mid-1980s. And before that, the even more amazing revenue increases of the Whitlam years in the mid-1970s. Funny about that: they’ve all been Labor governments. They’ve proved extremely adept at scooping up money from you, the taxpayer.

This is (Terry) McCrann’s shtick, that Labor are incorrigible taxers. Later, McCrann refers to the “huge tax rises to haul the deficit in”, although without managing to identify any of the increased taxes (because there aren’t any except the temporary flood levy).

It’s hard to know where to begin with such obtuse claims.  This government’s record on taxation receipts is that it is actually woeful at “scooping up money from you, the taxpayer”. Government revenue fell nearly 2% of GDP between 2007-08 and 2008-09, and then fell a further 1% of GDP in 2009-10. This year it’s forecast to fall again, to 22.4% of GDP. Three falls in a row.

On his record, Wayne Swan is rubbish at “scooping up money”.

Of course, that’s because of the GFC. But like many another conservative commentator, (Terry) McCrann would like us to think the GFC was some minor inconvenience. A “temporary and very shallow slowdown” is what he calls it.

It was indeed that, but because of the government’s response, not separate from the government’s response.

And this is the really offensive aspect of McCrann’s hysterical rant. McCrann’s accusation that Labor has permanently increased spending is wrong. Spending has indeed gone up under Labor — it surged to 25.9% in 2008-09 and 26.4% of GDP last financial year. But it is forecast to fall back to 25.3% of GDP this year, and is forecast to be 24.8% in 2011-12. When was the last time spending was this high? You have to go all the way back to … 2003-04, when spending was 24.9% of GDP.

Some “much higher permanent spending base”, Terry.

Where it gets offensive is McCrann’s suggestion that the spending was purely because Labor just likes to spend.


McCrann, other conservative economists such as Henry Ergas, News Ltd and the Coalition want to rewrite history about the GFC, and pretend that Labor’s decisions to ramp up spending in 2008-09 and 2009-10 were somehow unrelated to how Australia weathered that storm. In fact, they were fundamental to Australia withstanding the global shocks. And they are the reasons tens of thousands of Australians, maybe hundreds of thousands of Australians, kept their jobs. This may seem obvious to a lot of people, but there is a persistent campaign to mislead people into thinking they had nothing to do with it.

This is all a parlour game for highly paid newspaper commentators and economists who need never fear losing their incomes. They have the skills and resume to pick up a highly remunerative job no matter what the economic conditions. For them, the GFC was an interesting global economic experiment. For ordinary Australians working in construction, in mining, and retail, and manufacturing, the GFC was a real threat to their jobs, to their mortgages, to their families. It could have been a gateway to the sort of large-scale misery we saw in the aftermath of the 1990s recession — lives ruined, skills wasted, careers wasted. The sort of scourge the United States is now enduring.

Those are the stakes Wayne Swan and Kevin Rudd were playing for in 2008 and 2009. And now (Terry) wants to wish it away as some sort of genetic predisposition to waste money by Labor politicians.

In April, Swan’s former chief-of-staff, Chris Barrett, gave a long address in Washington on the government’s response to the GFC. It received little attention in Australia apart from Shane Wright at The West Australian, but should be compulsory reading for anyone interested not merely in economics but government policy making, because Barrett provides an insight into exactly how the government’s response to the GFC unfolded. Apart from building a detailed case for exactly how big a role the stimulus packages played in supporting growth, Barrett notes, almost in passing, that the government shelved several planned spending cuts in the 2008-09 budget when it became clear to Swan in his meetings with foreign counterparts that there was something catastrophic going on overseas.

Those with long enough memories will recall that the 2008 budget was attended by great clamouring (include my own) for savage spending cuts, and general disappointment from economists when the promised bloodbath didn’t materialise — because, I recall Swan saying in the budget lock-up press conference that year, because it would have smashed the economy into a wall.

In retrospect, Swan and the government made exactly the right call, and made it in the most difficult possible environment. It’s easy to manage a budget when a mining boom is raining revenue on you, as Peter Costello found. It’s a damn sight tougher when tens of thousands of jobs rest on your judgment about how hard you restrict spending when a major crisis is enveloping the rest of the world.

Again this year there’s been clamouring (and again from me too) about the lack of hard spending cuts in the budget. But as several commentators have pointed out, the budget settings are already strongly contractionary. Spending will actually fall in real terms in 2011-12. Yes, Labor should have hopped into spending much more than it did, not out of any race back to surplus, but to cut poor spending from the budget and ensure it is set up for the fiscal challenge of an ageing population, rather than simply relying on the minerals boom to fund it.

But for all McCrann’s complaints about too much spending, what has he had to say about Labor’s actual proposals to cut spending? Did he rail against his News Ltd colleagues for their defence of middle-class welfare? Has he ever written in support of a single Labor savings measure over the past three years? How about the private health insurance means test Labor proposed in 2009? Or cutting super contribution caps? Or rather is he one of the commentators nailed by Ross Gittins yesterday for demanding big cuts but then going missing in action in supporting the cuts Labor was proposing?

Then again, it’s all a game for Terry and friends, so why should we expect any consistency?
Report AFL February 28, 2012 4:24 AM GMT
Or you could try this one Craig........Laugh

If you really believe that all they did was cross a few T's and dot a few I's and add a couple of numbers...

You can watch the Podcast of Barrett's Complete Speech or download the PDF.

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/australia-and-the-great-recession

Australia and the Great Recession

Woodrow Wilson International Center For Scholars



April 14, 2011 // 4:00pm — 5:30pm



Few countries have weathered the recent global economic crisis with positive growth rates. Speaking at an Asia Program event on April 15, Kim Beazley, Australia's ambassador to the United States, noted that of the world's 33 advanced economies, only three maintained positive growth after the onset of the crisis, only two avoided recession, and only one, his own, had growth of over 1 percent. Beazley made these comments by way of introducing Australia's deputy prime minister and treasurer, Wayne Swan, and Swan's former chief of staff and current Wilson Center Australian Scholar, Chris Barrett. These two figures were central to Canberra's response to the crisis.

According to Swan, an understanding of details and values is central to success in policymaking in general, and no more so than in the recent financial crisis. During the crisis the Australian government was not merely focused on economic growth but keenly aware that the "destruction of jobs and capital" following an economic downturn would "eat away at communities," making future growth difficult. The deputy prime minister noted that key decision makers had clear memories of such social erosion during the recession of the early 1990s. The government's priorities therefore lay with "looking after people in a way that was rational." The result was a series of stimulus packages that Swan described as "one of the most successful policy responses of modern times."

As both Barrett and Swan made clear, Australia did have certain clear advantages over many other economies from the beginning. Chinese growth in recent years produced a favorable trade environment for Australia, and a stimulus package announced by Beijing in November 2008 eventually increased demand for Australian exports. Moreover, Australian banks, having largely avoided the move to subprime lending and large derivatives exposures that lay at the root of the crisis in the United States, maintained a degree of stability that was not possible elsewhere.

Nevertheless, other nations, notably Canada and New Zealand, also benefited from Chinese growth and well-regulated financial institutions and still fell into the recession that Australia avoided. Such positive variables are therefore insufficient in explanations of Australian growth. Moreover, as Swan pointed out, even though natural disasters in Australia in 2010 and in Japan—Australia's second largest export partner—in 2011 will shave as much as 0.75 percent from the Australian economy, it is still expected to grow at a rate of 3.5 percent. Australia was unique among developed nations in its strong emergence from the financial crisis.

Barrett stated that Australia's impressive economic performance during the global recession was the result of quick recognition of warning signs, followed by preparation and timely implementation of fiscal stimulus. Canberra recognized the possibility of a global financial crisis early. The treasurer's official party was in Washington in April 2008, the month after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provided an emergency loan to the global investment bank Bear Stearns to try to avert a sudden collapse of the company. During the trip, it became clear that many official and unofficial contacts in the United States believed that the situation at Bear Stearns could be the prelude to a much larger crisis.

Early recognition of the crisis meant that the government had time to conduct preparatory work on a financial claims scheme in anticipation of a global downturn. Moreover, the Australian treasury had conducted preparatory work on fiscal policy as early as 2004, which the government reassessed and updated in anticipation of the need for stimulus measures.

Indeed, even before the collapse of the Wall Street trading firm Lehman Brothers in September 2008 made the extent of the global crisis apparent, the Australian government was ready to implement a range of stimulus projects to protect jobs in a downturn. One important stimulus measure was to provide funding for the construction and improvement of public facilities. The Australian federal government had already coordinated its anticipated implementation of stimulus polices with state governments, whose authority was needed to direct important projects, such as school renovations that would protect the jobs of working Australians. Architecture was also in place to send cash payments to lower income families before Christmas, providing a much-needed boost to the retail industry.

Throughout his presentation, Barrett consistently emphasized that the case of
Australia shows that stimulus measures are effective, but also stressed the importance of reducing lags in the implementation of such measures. Early warning systems are needed to anticipate economic crises and the design of "standing" stimulus packages is crucial for a quick response, as is being in a position to implement those packages when crisis arrives in earnest.

As a comparison to Australia, Barrett cited U.S. fiscal policy in response to the crisis. While he noted that fiscal stimulus did soften the recession in the United States, he also held that was not as effective as it could have been. The U.S. government's transition between the Bush and Obama administrations meant that there were significant time lags in the anticipation, design, and implementation of stimulus policies. Stimulus measures in the United States were therefore not introduced early enough to have as comprehensive effect as in Australia.

By Bryce Wakefield
Robert M. Hathaway, Director, Asia Program
Report AFL February 28, 2012 4:25 AM GMT
Laugh
Report AFL February 28, 2012 4:31 AM GMT
Thank Christ the Libs weren't in charge, because they opposed everything labor did.

DevilDevilDevilDevil
Report Thebas February 28, 2012 4:34 AM GMT
both interesting articles afl ... but from the past .. what is ahead for the future ...

*********


stiglitz i think we've discussed before .. a bit of a loose canon sacked by the World Bank and a vocal critic of the IMF - (i guess i support him there lol) ... stiglitz had recently written a book supporting the very activities undertaken by the rudd govt during the gfc so had a slight conflict of interest regading his published works - it wasn't an independent comment Wink

we got out of it ... you can't deny labor that

if labor didn't have the legacy of what they were 'left in the kitty' by howard etc .. then likely we would now be gonski over our national debt

but we got through ... so well done labor on that for sure


In 2000 Stiglitz founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue (IPD), with support of the Ford & Rockefeller Foundations

Ford foundation: 
Over the course of its history, the Ford Foundation has been a target of criticism from both the political left and the right. The John Birch Society in the late 1950s charged the Foundation as participating in a Communist conspiracy.

The Rockefeller Foundation, funded Nazi racial studies even after it was clear what this research was being used to rationalize the demonizing of Jews and other groups. Up until 1939 the Rockefeller Foundation was funding research used to support Nazi racial science studies.

*****

re the bernard keane article - the date would be interesting

bernard also had some things to say about the 'current' state of the labor party and it's likely course


This is a party imploding. The word is used carefully: Labor’s internal weaknesses, its ideological drift, its lack of core values, the devolution of the factions in mechanisms for distributing patronage, its reluctance to publicly argue over important issues — the hollowing out of a once vibrant, reformist institution, is causing Labor to cave in on itself.

On current polling, they’ll suffer the sort of defeat likely to leave them out of office for two terms. Something to consider at 10.30 on Monday when they find that Labor’s biggest problem, Julia Gillard,  remains prime minister.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/02/24/keane-labors-rotten-core-needs-the-leadership-implosion/
Report whoopi February 28, 2012 4:43 AM GMT
so what you're saying thebas is  in summary: yes labor did a great job during the GFC, so what, lets look to the future.
By that logic , no matter what point in time why pick, you'll still be able to say the same thing.
The best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour.
we're in safe hands
Report whoopi February 28, 2012 4:45 AM GMT
we not why
Report AFL February 28, 2012 4:46 AM GMT
Hey Thebas ...I can only win one argument at as timeLaugh

Ohh and by the way....

To whom am i communicating......are you Second Coming or are you ozrazer?

It seems that the number of Right Wingers in here has been greatly exagerated.

Laugh
Report whoopi February 28, 2012 4:49 AM GMT
i'd be betting JEZ/ Thebas/ Oz/secong coming all share the same D.N.A.
Report Joel February 28, 2012 4:52 AM GMT
I believe they are a high-tech Liberal funded automated robot, programmed to try to brainwash the general public.
The Jez one appears to have got stuck posting the same things over and over though.
Report AFL February 28, 2012 4:53 AM GMT
Wink
Report whoopi February 28, 2012 4:56 AM GMT
Laughthat's gold JoelLaugh
Report Thebas February 28, 2012 4:59 AM GMT
haha whoopi ... ok ... but no i don't buy that at all  ... remaining in the past or using the past is more ... conservative right wing politics ... i would have thought ... than a 'progreesive' labor ideal

and lolol afl ... i think i am me .. (but late at night sometimes i have to check .. i generally blame the ale Wink )

the difficulty i have here myself .. in relation to discussing all this .. is that if i choose an article from a right wing leaning .. i am labelled a right wing thinker

so for the past 3 months i reckon .. each time i question statements on her .. i try to find an article that is directly from the 'belief system' of the 'group idealogy' that i am trying to address


in closing (we are closing aren't we) ... the only thing i suggest must happen .. is julia must go

she is a deciever and a puppet .. and has not right (non political sense that is) being where she is

*****

as an example of how pathetic i see her

she told me (and the nation lol) the day before the election .. there would be NO carbon tax under my govt

then she changed her mind

we 'believe' she changed her mind ... because 'bob the builder' said he wouldn't for a govt with her unless she conceeded this

so this is how i see how the conversation SHOULD have gone

*****

julia ... bob please form a govt with me

bob ... not unless i get my carbon tax in

(what julia prob said was ... ok bob ... what julia should have said was ... )

julia ... ffs bob .. you run a 10% party ... stop babbling and do what you're told .. i'll get you part ownership of the govt .. you'll get a deal out of it later ... but stick your co2 up your clacker ... because i WON'T GO BACK ON MY WORD TO THE GOOD PEOPLE OF AUSTRALIA

bob (thinks for a minute) ... should i force my hand with julia and maybe MISS OUT on my lifelong dream .. in this fluke hung parliament .. to get my name on some buisness paper that says .. i am in government at last ...

bob ... julia you are right .. if you keep your good word with the people of australia ... maybe we'll all get a second term ... so yes .. let's can the co2 tax for another term ... as you PROMISED
Report Thebas February 28, 2012 5:02 AM GMT
by the way ... are you three afl, womble AND now ... whoop (where the fk did he come from .. bit suss i reckon)

so are you 3

wise monkeys

or

blind mice

LaughWinkLaughWinkLaughWinkLaughWinkLaugh
Report AFL February 28, 2012 5:07 AM GMT
LOL Thebas.......all's cool...... not going to participate in a gang slanging match against you...as at least you conduct your debates in good humor.

Wink
Report Thebas February 28, 2012 5:08 AM GMT
thank's pal .. you are def on the wise monkey list we me
Report whoopi February 28, 2012 5:08 AM GMT
me? suss?  no no no. Completely hetero.
Report Thebas February 28, 2012 5:10 AM GMT
lol whoops .. you got humour also ... goos to see ... 2 wise monkeys then .. womble's at work but he's cool also ... so 3 monks it is


ps  i reserve my judgement for your later posts tho ... and may do 'a jule's' lol .. and change my mind  Wink
Report Mrben February 28, 2012 5:16 AM GMT
Who do you intend to vote for at the next election?

    Labor (5517)15%
    Liberal/National (23907)66%
    Green (2008)5%
    Independent (2145)6%
    Other (2998)8%

ahhhhh "yeh"
Report whoopi February 28, 2012 5:22 AM GMT
mrben. Wouldn't you prefer a nice yorkie or golden retriever as your picture? One you have seems a little overly aggressive.
(I say this as an owner of a German Shepherd, so have no aversion to big dogs)
Report wombleoz February 28, 2012 10:21 AM GMT
awwwww thanks Thebas - u go ok as well Cool

MrBen - posting online polls??? u do know the young Liberals are paid to makes sure the numbers come out right don't you???
Report Joel February 28, 2012 11:11 AM GMT
Jez must be absolutely loaded then
Report Craig The Speculator February 28, 2012 12:08 PM GMT
so AFL you managed to find three journalists / economists that agree with your view, the climate change skeptics manage to find scientists that dont think the earth is warming and the tobacco industry still find scientists that say you cant prove smoking can harm you, imo WinkCrazy
Report Craig The Speculator February 28, 2012 12:09 PM GMT
i will grant you I would rather Swan as traesurer than Hockey tho
Report AFL February 28, 2012 9:21 PM GMT
Whatever Craig.......CrazyCrazy
Report Craig The Speculator February 29, 2012 2:37 AM GMT
lol
Report bigted. February 29, 2012 8:24 AM GMT
just saw Julia on abc news saying wing knut should spend less time worrying about 'faceless men' & more time worrying about the 'useless men' in his party. Gold.

Laugh
Report bigted. February 29, 2012 8:24 AM GMT
imo
Blush
Report Joel February 29, 2012 9:15 AM GMT
Laugh
Report wombleoz February 29, 2012 10:51 AM GMT
she's on fire at present - letting them have it with both barrels
Report shiraz February 29, 2012 8:26 PM GMT
Is this really how we want the Prime Minister of the country to behave??

Obviously her comedy act is better than her policy making.

Scrapped the solar hot water scheme with 5 minutes notice, that's just dispicable.  There will be quite a few small businesses left with thousands of dollars worth of stock they cannot sell as a result.  I had a small business that was hit by commonwealth government policy change in 2005, layed off about twelve employees, took about 70% from the value of the business etc etc.

If you had that happen to you, then see the PM saying the carbon tax will give incentive for people to go to clean energy, as if that is some sort of trade off, I dont think you would be laughing.
Report whoopi February 29, 2012 9:01 PM GMT
shiraz- The looming end of the solar rebate was known to all in the industry.
If they weren't prepared they shouldn't be running a business.
Any business model that depends on government handouts is doomed.
(BEFORE YOU GET ON YOUR RIGHT WING HIGH HORSE ABOUT HOW I HAVE NO IDEA HOW HARD IT IS TO RUN A SMALL BUSINESS, I RAN A SUCESSFUL ONE FOR 10 YEARS AND SOLD FOR A NICE PROFIT)
Bit of forward planning might have helped in your case. For future refernce, sell when your business is going well, especially if you're dumb enough to depend on government handouts.
Report AFL February 29, 2012 9:17 PM GMT
They haven't banned the use of Solar Panels, so I don't see why "they now can't sell this stock" as you say. They are honouring all existing contracts.

To draw a comparison that the PM can't score political points in Parliament as this is in some way laughing at the Solar Panel Industry is ridiculous.

Perhaps you should be asking why that wrecker Abbott has moved 43 consecutive suspension of standing orders in Parliament.
Report shiraz February 29, 2012 9:24 PM GMT
Obviously you THINK you know everything.

Once again you resort to personal attacks on other forumites instead of just discussing the issue, what a pathetic little person you must be.

I don't have a right wing high horse.

My business did not rely upon government hand outs, I had a contract with two seperate commonwealth government departments and one of them was effected by a policy change.

I was'nt mentioning it for any other reason than I know what it feels like.

Instead of congratulating yourself in capital letters, perhaps you should have tried to answer the question I asked?

And stop trying to give me advice, I don't appreciate it.
Report AFL February 29, 2012 9:31 PM GMT
To draw a comparison that the PM can't score political points in Parliament as this is in some way laughing at the Solar Panel Industry is ridiculous.

Her negotiating skills and policy making has produced over 250 pieces of legislation in a hung parliament.

So your assertion that her point scoring is impeding her policy making, does not stand scrutiny.
Report shiraz February 29, 2012 9:33 PM GMT
AFL,

I did'nt say she was "laughing at the solar panel industry", have another read of what I actually wrote.

I agree that Abbott is not a good alternative PM.
Report wombleoz February 29, 2012 9:43 PM GMT
I'm with Shiraz here, partly, they handled that very poorly - seems to be a trend with these kind of things though - look what happened in NSW last year

Still, it's good to see the PM giving them a kicking - loved it when Keating did it, love it when Julia does it as well - or should she not do it because she's a female??? Angry
Report AFL February 29, 2012 9:44 PM GMT
My apologies if i have taken you out of context Shiraz.

I'll have a second try.

You seem to be saying the as PM she should not try and get the upper hand in debates by scoring political points, if they are funny, because it demeans the office of PM, and it inhibits her policy making.

I answer with......

Her negotiating skills and policy making has produced over 250 pieces of legislation in a hung parliament.

So your assertion that her point scoring is impeding her policy making, does not stand scrutiny.
Report shiraz February 29, 2012 9:55 PM GMT
No wombleoz, I did'nt like Keating's antics in parliament either, but I thought he was a good PM over all (so was Hawke for that matter).

I'd say most Australians probably see parliament question time as a bit of a joke, it is a shame.

Maybe it's my notion that the PM should be more of a statesman / stateswoman and less of a politician.
Report whoopi February 29, 2012 9:56 PM GMT
often it's those that most need advice that don't want it.
Don't get all emotional at me Shiraz. I didn't run your business into the ground, you did.
There was no personal attack involved.
It just makes me ill when people who fail in business blame "the government" instead of having a good look at themselves in the mirror.
Report AFL February 29, 2012 10:26 PM GMT
I kind of  agree with your sentiments re: it would be better if they debated the policies without the point scoring......but any PM that attempts to take the higher ground in that respect would get trampled in the rush for their job.

It takes a strong PM to deflect the barbs and turn it on the opposition successfully with or without throwing some of the barbs back. It needs both defence and attack to win. Perhaps the process demeans the procedure of parliament, but to single out the PM as somehow should be beyond throwing some of the the barbs back, will not cut it in our system. IMO.
Report shiraz February 29, 2012 10:27 PM GMT
whoopi, my business did'nt fail, it was adversely effected by a change in policy.  I restructured, ran it for another two years, then I sold it and it is still running nicely for the current owner.  Some employees are still there from before I bought the business in 1998.

I only ever mentioned the government policy issue to point out that I have first hand experience.

You happily make these comments....
"if you're dumb enough to depend on government handouts."
"I didn't run your business into the ground, you did"
"people who fail in business and blame "the government"

All of these are inaccurate and are directed at me personally.

Keep going if it makes you feel good about yourself.
Report whoopi February 29, 2012 10:29 PM GMT
P.S
What a pathetic litttle person you must be...now that's a personal attack.

P.P.S.
Won't be apologizing for having a great life or being knowledgeable because i bothered to put in the effort to be educated.
Report whoopi February 29, 2012 10:34 PM GMT
if you're dumb enough to depend on government handouts."
"I didn't run your business into the ground, you did"
"people who fail in business and blame "the government"


Stand by all those.
Losing 70% of the value of your business can only reflect inept management.
Sorry if that hurts, but it's the truth. It probably hurts the 12 people you let down through your incompetence more unfortunately.
Report shiraz February 29, 2012 10:49 PM GMT
So, you are successful, profitable, knowledgeable, educated and have a great life.

Excellent.
Report whoopi February 29, 2012 10:51 PM GMT
i wish the same for you
Report whoopi February 29, 2012 10:54 PM GMT
and if you follow my posts on the punting thread you'll be half way there.
Report Jez____ March 1, 2012 6:45 AM GMT
"good to see her (Julia) giving them a kicking"

Yep a real kicking LaughLaughLaugh

You might like it, but the punters don't.

Another week, another Gillard embarassment. 

This time another lie about having Bob Carr offered a Foreign Affairs role by the faceless men and with her blessing....called the story in The Australian on Wednesday...."completely untrue".

Carr admits he was drafted.
Gillard today sheepishly says, "I did speak to Bob Carr".

This government is in crisis.  Another day, another leak.
Another day, another Labor fight.
Another day, another Gillard lie.

Time to change the government.
Report Joel March 1, 2012 6:46 AM GMT
Who cares if she did or didn't.
Report Thebas March 1, 2012 6:48 AM GMT
do you mean who cares ... if she did or didn't ... tell the truth   ... or if she did or didn't ... speak to carr ?
Report Jez____ March 1, 2012 6:48 AM GMT
It raises serious questions about her integrity and her character, Joel.

Why lie?

Why not be truthful?  Is it really that hard for this Prime Minister.

What has she got to hide about offering Bob Carr the Foreign Affairs portfolio?

It's interesting she spoke to him even before Arbib had resigned.

Again, another week, another Gillard lie.

She is an embarassment to the office of the Prime Minister.
An absolute embarassment.

Labor MP's were quoted in Fairfax this afternoon saying:
" this was supposed to be a good week for Julia...but yet again another ****up"
LaughLaughLaugh
Report Joel March 1, 2012 6:52 AM GMT
It was a brilliant week for Julia and the entire party, it showed just how stable they are.
Report Jez____ March 1, 2012 6:56 AM GMT
Another Labor MP speaking to Fairfax:

Journo:  " is this week going to end up like last week for the government after the handling of the vacant Foreign Affairs portfolio and the Bob Carr issue? "

Labor MP: "Abbott-solutely"

LaughLaughLaugh
Report whoopi March 1, 2012 7:12 AM GMT
my sides are splitting.
Report wombleoz March 1, 2012 11:35 PM GMT
true Jez,, she should have the story in The Australian was 95% untrue ad contained some outright lies instead
Report wombleoz March 1, 2012 11:36 PM GMT
try again

true Jez, she should have said the story in The Australian was 95% untrue and contained some outright lies instead
Report AFL March 2, 2012 2:18 AM GMT
LOL.....Julia Gillard trumps the Right-wing Media..and shows them to be the fools they areLaugh

Where was the leak this time?....LaughLaughLaugh

and trumps  Mr Negative Nony Abbott and the Liberal's and shows them to be the fools they are....LaughLaugh

and appoints Bob Carr as Foreign minister.

Shows no authority lol.

Puppet for the faceless men. LOL
Report Craig The Speculator March 2, 2012 2:40 AM GMT
well done to Julia like i wrote on another thread


AFL, a question for you and others like you - you seem intelligent but how can you be an impartial clear thinker when you are so biased? your mind made up and supportive of labor irrespective of what they decide or do
Report whoopi March 2, 2012 2:51 AM GMT
can't speak for afl but....the conservative philosophy of I'm o.k. Jack, screw you is what I find most repugnant, coupled with the deceptive way they spin policy to support their corporate mates,while conning the general public that it's in their interest.
I've been fortunate enough in life to be comfortable. However I recognise that others in the community are disadvantaged and need government support. I don't begrudge them that.
The conservative philosophy is that the market will take care of us all....it won't....lot's of people need assistance and should receive it.
Report whoopi March 2, 2012 3:04 AM GMT
and i'm not talking about some ethereal pie in the sky thinking.
In practical terms , if the opposition were allowed to have their way during the GFC and we allowed the market to take care of us all, we'd now be in the midst of the deepest darkest recession this country has seen.
Report AFL March 2, 2012 3:09 AM GMT
I disagree with their Asylum Seeker Policy, but the LIB'S is worse.

I'm sure there is a few other issues i disagree with....just can't think of them at the moment.

But if you are talking about the possibility of perhaps swapping from one side to the other based on one issue, or even a couple of issues...... not likely imo.

Just as Jez likes to say that there are issues he agrees with on the Labor side, it is not enough to make one swap sides.

Perhaps there would be a tipping point at some time.

just have not come close to it.

The Liberal Party stand for everything I am against, and favor the wealthy and Big Business,and are opposed to nation building projects, and spend little on the poor and the working class, so there is not much chance i would agree with them on any policy. LOL
Report AFL March 2, 2012 3:48 AM GMT
What an insult to the Australian People was the self- serving Media Campaign by the Mining Industry, and to top it off they hold the country to ransom.

They say "if you tax us more than we think we should pay"....then we will take our projects to another country.

How would any other group or person go if we said the same thing because we were upset at how much tax we pay?

Then to rub it in Twiggy Forrest then boasts about how little tax they really do pay. What an insult to the people.

So we the people miss out on over 100 billion.

Who did and do the Lib's support in this?
Report Craig The Speculator March 2, 2012 8:11 AM GMT
thanks for those well considered posts whoopi and AFL
Report AFL March 2, 2012 9:10 AM GMT
Cheers Craig....Wink
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