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31 Dec 10
22:44
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25 Oct 04
84 days until NSW can elect a Liberal Government and start working towards making NSW, number one again.
84 days of discussion, banter and speculation.
First question.
Will NSW Labor win enough seats to retain party status at the election?
84 days of discussion, banter and speculation.
First question.
Will NSW Labor win enough seats to retain party status at the election?
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Replies: 485
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yes
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Even in NSW, wombleoz is his usual optimistic self.
 You would think they will.....but Antony Green raised the grim prospect a few weeks ago. Labor NSW should be scared, very scared. The numbers coming from within ALP HQ in NSW are apparently worse still than the public published numbers.  |
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Labor will splash lotsa cash and run a hardcore scare campaign on the religious right controlling the NSW Liberals - they'll lose, deservedly so, but not get totally wiped out
Greens and independents will do VERY well  |
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Sure they will wombleoz.
Punters be warned. This clown has a fkn disasterous form on predicting electoral outcomes. |
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I think a severe attack campaign from Labor would be foolish.
Case in point - John Brumby and Labor Victoria's campaign which focused heavily on negative attack. It backfired and will for Labor NSW. Labor spin campaigning is being wound down. Its a dying strategy and its killing the Labor brand. Will be interesting to see what way they go with there campaign. Kristina Kenneally is the diamond amongst the ruin for Labor NSW, and it is a great shame she has spent at the VERY end of the electoral cycle. Will be interesting to see if Albo's wife, Carmel Tebbutt (Deputy Premier) retains her seat, she is also a savvy operator but has been caught up in the murky depths of NSW Labor that set in late during the Carr years - she will be a good chance for Opposition Leader if she holds on to her seat. |
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what have NSW Labor got to lose Jez? desperate times call for desperate measures - I'd go with a cash for the voters and a hardcore scare campaign - it's either that or lay down and die
KK can have my vote, or me, anytime [;)] Carmel is good value, her fate is almost entirely up to the Liberals though, she would only lose to a green or independent and Liberal preferences will probably decide that |
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It's interesting that in South Australia and Tasmania, Liberal should've killed both elections but they didn't, Federally the same thing and Victoria, similar.
I'm left wing and always have and will be, I don't like conservatism or religion and so my comments are probably un-impartial, but I see a trend in those elections that I've mentioned that overall, people are getting sick of conservatism in general. Labor lost votes in all of those elections but they didn't go to the coalition, they mostly went to the Greens and Independents. I see this happening in NSW too, although you'd be a real mug to say that Labor or even a Labor/Green coalition would win. I'm always wary of the Coalition though, because of the religious right that stunt progress in many social aspects like welfare and social work in favour of things like dismantling the ethics classes etc. I wrote to Fatty O'Barrell about this some months ago before it was written into legislation that ethics classes couldn't be stopped, this is his reply: Dear Nicole, Thank you for your email about the NSW Liberals & Nationals’ decision on the ethics trial. I’ve read your email and have noted your comments. I attach a copy of our decision for your information. As announced, my colleagues and I don’t believe there should be competition between scripture and ethics and, despite the wording of the State Government’s announcement, in practice that’s what they are proposing. I understand the concerns parents have about the activities available to students not choosing scripture. The Department’s policy states that these students could be involved in activities like homework, reading or private study. If elected, I am keen to ensure this is in fact happening. As a parent of a current public school student – and a former School Council member – I know ethics and values are already embedded in curricula, school policies and other programs. It’s a point this State Government has been keen to highlight in the past. If there’s a need to build on these existing programs, my colleagues and I believe it should be done to benefit all students. Thank you for informing me of your views on this issue. Barry O’Farrell It really concerns me that divisive religious bigots like Fred Nile are pandered to by the two major parties. That's what's going on here and it has to stop. I hope the Secular Party run a candidate in my electorate but judging by their almost non-existence in the recent Victorian election, they won't. So it looks like it will be Clover Moore, Green then ALP for me. |
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Thanks for your views TQ.
Your honesty is refreshing at the very least - up front and genuine - no beating around the push. Cheers for that. I've got mates across the political spectrum. I love having a yarn about the nitty gritty's of politics - as we do here - but I think respect is important, for everybodies point of view - no matter how much you might vehemently disagree. I have to say TQ....[;)]....I tend to disagree with you. I'm your opposite number. I'm Liberal, for the Liberals. Love the party, love the Coalition. At a young age found myself disliking Labor, progressive, socialist and left wing politics. I consider myself to be a pragmatic (as you have to be in politics) conservative - socially and economically. I'm pretty traditional in most of my views (God Save the Queen). Though, as I've said before on this forum - I am agnostic - and whilst I respect those with strong faith (Labor, Liberal or Green), I don't participate myself - and whilst I acknowledge there are extreme ends of the right wing (religiously) - I'm also aware of the looney section of the left - the fully fledged communists etc. Both sides - broadly - left and right have there extreme particpants. Generally speaking, I agree with your thoughts on the Liberal-National's move in NSW to cease the ethics classes. I attended a Catholic school. I don't think it did me any harm, in fact, it may have done me a lot of good - but I didn't appreciate religion being forced down my throat. Nevertheless, I think its important for the choice to be there. As to the panderers. It will never cease in politics. You talk about Fred Nile being pandered too. What about the Greens? They're an extreme party hidden behind the facade of helping animals and the environment - you know Koala cuddling and making the earth more beautiful. I mean what nonsense. Anyone with some nouse would see, even by venturing onto there website, that the Greens are quite extreme - and the party continues to be overtaken and dominated by the extremist/hardcore socialist-borderline communist types like Lee Rhiannon. They do it well, I must admit. Bob Brown is that reassuring monotone good guy who has been around forever and a day - though I think with power will come great scrutiny for the Greens - and I also believe whats good for the goose is good for the gander. It's alright for the Greens to play politics. But when the Libs do the same, as they did in Victoria. Shock horror - the Greens are disgusted, flabbergasted even. I mean lets get real. They want to play ball. Game on. There is plenty to be revealed and analysed within the Greens Party and thankfully, we will see more of this from both major parties in 2011. I agree that its frustrating when pandering occurs, but our political system accepts it. Whether its Tony Windsor, Bob Katter, The Greens or Fred Nile. As for your comments on the elections, I agree that the Labor Party ran a cunning campaign in South Australia. It was pure Bruce Hawker style - and the old fashioned sand-bagging worked a treat. As for Tasmania - well the Greens naturally were never going to assist a minority Liberal Government. Liberals won the popular vote, but in the political systems we have in place, a minor party or an independent can help form government - and in many cases they side with Labor - makes the conservatives task harder, but thats the way it is. As for Victoria. Tony Nutt is a superstar. An outstanding Liberal Party hardhead who needs to be on the national stage with Tony Abbott. The campaign he ran in Victoria was flawless and resulted in a massive swing against the government - which almost ENTIRELY - went to the Coalition. Massive win. I think when you suggest NSW will move to the independents and Greens - it may pay to look closely at the Victorian result. After the event, it proved polling was way off the mark for independent and Greens primary figures. I think the NSW election will be a blood bath. The ALP are bracing themselves. I'm not willing to write off any armageddon scenario for the ALP. If the people off Victoria can banish a reasonably on-the-rails Brumby Government - imagine what they do to this NSW mob? Scary stuff. I also have to say, I think the way you sort of dismiss the near-misses for Labor as a Liberal failure is interesting. As I've said, and your welcome to disagree whole heartedly but, I think there is some serious damage to the Labor brand nationally - the party is bleeding votes everywhere. And there is chronic denial setting in within the ALP that needs to be addressed. Interesting times ahead...... |
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Please excuse my spelling and grammatical errors.
 Push = bush [;)] |
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Yeah ... we're opposites alright. I like having a red under my bed and a green partner in my bed!
At the last Federal election, the order I voted on my ticket was: 1. Secular 2. Green 3. ALP 4. Communist 5. Independent 6. Independent 7. Liberal |
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I voted something like....
1. Liberal 2. Family First 3. Independent (conservative leaning) 4. Democrat 5. ALP 6. Green |
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You Libs should get your head around Abbott being both the reason you got so close and the reason you lost.
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What nonsense AFL. Pure nonsense.
The Coalition won more seats, won the popular vote but lost out on the negotiations due to two disenchanted former Nationals - both of which have shown themselves since, to be self-indulgent intellectual nobodies (to borrow a phrase from Paul J Keating). I accept the Coalition lost the election - but I don't accept it was a complete failure from the Coalition - the campaign was fantastic but some organisational features were lacking, especially in NSW. But I think Labor have the things to worry about. And they continue to lurk like a bad smell. A first term government losing its majority, the first since the 1940's. A messy PM execution and leadership shakeup. Policy flops everywhere you turn. No political capital. An Australian public sick and tired of the Labor brand and SPIN. A hard year of LABOR ahead for all concerned. |
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Things have to change DRAMATICALLY if Gillard Labor is to win the next election. This year will make or break the government.
I can't wait to see the carbon tax approach. I'm with wombleoz. Bring it on. This issue alone may just nail the coffin. |
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AFL. So I suppose you believe Labor will win the next election?
And if it doesn't, they are not to blame? Wake up young man! |
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**Next election in NSW, that is.
Read topic title. |
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$1.4bn war chest for NSW Labor campaign - Sunday Telegraph
THE Keneally government has built up a $1.4 billion war chest of cash budgeted for spending on health, police, education and lowering power prices - but is now available to fund election promises. The Sunday Telegraph can reveal the Government has squirrelled away the cash from the budget that it can use during the upcoming March election campaign without pushing the State into the red. Treasury secretary Michael Schur, the most senior finance bureaucrat in NSW, uncovered the bonus cash in the official Statement of Uncommitted Funds. The money - which had been allocated for a range of programs over the next four years - includes $225 million in funding for NSW Health, $114 million for the police force and $291 million for education. .....Why aren't I surprised by this. "WHATEVER IT TAKES"...it's the ALP way. Power at any cost. And guess who pays? You guessed it. The public. |
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laying labor at $1.05 is great value, so many morons don't know how to vote properly, so many preference deals to decide seats, the arguement will be that Ofarrell isn't any better?? Greens will be a protest vote who inturn give labor their votes, Libs will be very lucky to win IMO. Even though labor is diabolical.
I am almost certain labor will get re elected because most ppl are stupid. |
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sorry laying the libs at $1.05
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Do you watch "Today Tonight" and "A Current Affair" too Canberra Bookie?
And do you call Channel 7 and 9 6:00pm show "News"? Seriously CB, don't believe a thing you read in any paper or see on any TV or radio station. Except the ABC, but make your own mind up about what you hear on that. Gold Coast Investor - I hope you're right, but sadly I don't think you will be. |
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Here we go. A bite. TQ. You hope Labor are re-elected in NSW? Wowsers. Your one of the "true believers" aren't you? You have a snowflakes chance in hell of Labor winning. The public aren't going to be hoodwinked again by Hawker-Britton spin or a heavy handed and personal negative attack campaign on Barry O'Farrell. Think we've heard it all before. People just aren't listening to the ALP anymore. And I'm delighted, your an expert in media? Don't believe anything "except the ABC" - yes aren't they the model of objectivity, TQ! FFSThe story is accurate TQ. All the information is on the public record. I know the left wing style is to hide and deceit but even an outfit such as the Tele aren't foolish enough to miss this blatant Labor "whatever it takes" move. |
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it's interesting that the Liberals didn't do as well as they expected in NSW at the federal election, makes you wonder a little if that was because NSW voters knew more about what Abbott and the NSW religious right are like??? maybe it will limit the damage, that along with a major cash splash and scare campaign + maybe Kristina flashing a little leg [;)]
and it might be to the wipe out Jez is "predicting" |
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I couldn't be bothered with this ... more important things to do that talk to conservatives
Good luck to you canberra bookie |
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My goodness.
Hold onto whatever you will wombleoz. I think my predictions have been pretty accurate electorally - yours have been fanciful and have never come to fruition - thats a fact! Latch onto whatever you will to try and numb yourself - but NSW Labor will get smashed. Make no mistake about that. Your at pains to say to me wombleoz, that Federal and State politics are seperated, and the public aren't silly. I think the reason the Libs struggled in NSW was because of poor pre-selecting - simple as that. When you pre-select candidates at the last minute, thats what happens. The administrative side of the NSW campaign was poor. If you want to try and find a silver bullet for the NSW Labor Party - you'll be bitterly devastated come March. You talk about the religious right, wombleoz. Hang on a fkn minute. NSW Labor have been in for over 15 years. And for what? For what wombleoz? Gee, How proud you must be. They are a disgrace. Pure and simple. The scandalous, corrupt, deceitful nature of this government, I hope we never see again. It's disgusting. |
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NSW Labor are pathetic Jez, I agree - much like your "predictions" - I'd like to go out on a limb this election and actually predict a number of seats, not yet obviously but closer to the day - that is an actual prediction - i.e. rather than "i think the Liberals will do well"
No question Labor deserves to lose, I just really hope the people don't give the Liberals too big a majority because if they do there will be nothing left to sell once they are finished |
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I think you have to read all political commentary/news with an open mind.
Both sides have there soft reporters. In terms of having discussions with the other side, I agree TQ, sometimes I wonder how I find the time - but I love politics and debates are good - though it can be extremely frustrating. Take care. |
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life would be incredibly boring if we all agreed
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I was reading some statements that came out of North Korea last night womble.
And it got me thinking of you, as you are a socialist. |
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It was from the New Year Editorial statement, from the North Korean Central News Agency It was good to hear them extending an olive branch to the South, but some of the lines were comical.
Kim Jong Il said: "Our building of the country into an economic giant is aimed, to all intents and purposes, at radically improving the people's standard of living. When the people's living standards are decisively improved, hooray for socialism and singing of Arirang of prosperity can ring out louder across the country and the gate to a prosperous nation be opened." |
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It is the firm determination and will of the great Workers Party of Korea to enable the people, who have braved severe hardships together with the Party, to enjoy the blessing of socialism to their hearts' content by getting them relish the substantial fruits of the present great upsurge and realize without fail the noble intention and desire of President Kim Il Sung who devoted his heart and soul to the people all his life.
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This is my favourite part:
We should implement the people-oriented policies of the Party and the state to enable all the people to substantially enjoy the benefits of socialism. The true nature of our socialism lies in putting the people's well-being above anything else and providing them with all the benefits. We should ensure that the advantages of the people-oriented policies, like giving free medical care and free education, formulated by President Kim Il Sung and applied by the Party and state throughout their history are given fuller play in the people's living. |
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it's the way of the future Jez, unfortunately there are often tyrants in charge rather than genuine socialists
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Your saying our future lies in this? Australia needs to go down the socialism path?
This is the fundamental problem with socialism, it doesn't work. Leads to poverty, suffering and terrorism. North Korea is a case in point - make all the excuses. The revolution and the leadership of the Socalist Workers Party has led to the chronic, horrific and awful suffering now being shared by the North Korean people. No honeymoon, wombleoz. Just the brutal facts of socialism. Sounds beautiful and IDEAL in theory to you - but this is it, out to bare. |
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Kim Jong-il is the ultimate comrade.
Its's just the inconvenient truth has all you socialists out there with your fixed emotion, noting how awful it is that this "tyrant" has ruined true socialism. ffs |
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there's a balance Jez, we will never see pure socialism unfortunately so I'm willing to trade it off with a blend of capitalism and socialism - let the free market do it's work but have government there to regulate when it gets out of control and provide services that shouldn't be driven by profit
i call myself a "socialist but an economic realist" |
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Government's don't know best.
But I also compromise. I'm all for the provision of quality services by government. Medicare, Health & hospitals, Education and a decent Welfare Safety Net. (But it needs to be a safety net, not a welfare bonanza). But again, I don't believe, as socialists often do, that government's know best. You say "have government there to regulate when its out of control" - but it never works like that, its the government that gets out of control with red tape. I'm all about choice and free and open society - let the people decide. Private school/public school Private hospital/public hospital etc etc |
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As with North Korea, the socialist model is fundamentally flawed.
Tell me where there is a pure, workeable and successful model of socialism in the world today? It doesn't work. It's hurts the people you set out to help the most. Forget about achieving, or being aspirational in a socialist society. What nonsense socialism equalises everything for all - it never works. Socialism is all about CONTROL - for a certain few within it's society. |
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Tell me wombleoz, lets say hypothetically, you led a government into office in NSW in March.
Tell me about life under a Socialist Wombleoz Administration? |
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Same as me Womble.
I hate it when they use the term "Socialist" as if it's some filthy dirty concept. It's the conservative tactic, fear campaigns relying on the old "red under the bed" tactic. It's pathetic, unfortunately many of the sheeple fall for it. |