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Fingers crossed the ruling goes the right way, scary to think what will happen if it doesn't
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If the figures are right, Betfair would need to pull the plug on NSW Racing - there's no point betting on it if they can't make money there.
Mind you, most of the experts seem to think Betfair are odds on to win |
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and to answer your question Sea-the-stars, my guess is the WA ruling a few years back would save NSW punters from being banned again. Just no one would be able to bet on NSW racing - potentially
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Wombleoz and Sea the Stars: If Betfair and corporates lose, it is my understanding that the likely consequence(other than a challenge) is that the betting providers will not provide NSW racing through their betting mediums
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If NSW Racing win it will make them very happy as bf and corporates will pull the plug punters will then only be able to bet on NSW races through very high margin bookies that pay off NSW Racing with a big fat percentage. Down side for them is that all of the mobile punters will just bet on races elsewhere.
Courts are very random and you can never predict a legal outcome. (Maybe bf should be running a market on it). |
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The reason why other states will stick with the profit model is that this will enable them to take business from NSW. They may also have the foresight to realise that they will be getting a smaller slice of a bigger pie as more bets will be placed when commissions/rakes are lower - so they will probably end up better off.
And even if all of the racing boards go with turnover, punters will just move where the odds are fairer - probably to sport as they are already doing. |
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appeal either way imo, not over by a longshot as they say
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As previously posted,if NSW Racing gets the verdict BF and the corporates will appeal.If NSW loses then they will appeal.
However if they put up a market NSW would be 5's on to win. The fact that Sky Racing will televise from the Supreme Court has all the makings of a First Class Leak. |
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8balls u can have 1/2 with me NSW winning this case...the courts cant go with trade restraint...imo
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I'm looking forward to the spin from Tabcorp TV if NSW does win.
"a great day for you punters because our competition has been taxed into submission" |
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If the judges can get their heads around the two funding models Betfair should be a good chance.
Just in case, anyone got any good links to UK racing form  |
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the result must go against nsw.Otherwise it is a restraint of trade.On appeal to a federal court nsw loses in a no brainer.Federal law overules state law, its in the constitution. Someone once took me to court over a state law, as soon as I told them if i lose I will appeal to the federal court which must overturn the decision- they dropped the case.Land and enviro issue.This court case may just be part of the bargaining process.
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Agree MrBen, with all the "noise" from the P/Commisson and anti-competitive argument being run by NSW Racing , will be overturned by Supreme Court no problem,should BF lose.
Their may be a point in "the leak" theory as the guy on "In the Gig" was very smug about getting the 10 million windfall ( HELD IN TRUST ) upon victory |
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If the lose, we bet via The Tote
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BF will lose case. Not sure BF will appeal as they are losing heaps in legal costs & may not have the grounds. However on the brightside i reckon the following will occur over next year or two (not necessarily in order)
1. Reckon BF will stop operating on NSW racing 2. Other states will not follow with a turnover fee & as a result will get increased revenue from Corporates & BF3. Professional punters and Corporates will band together & boycott NSW racing 3. NSW tab turnover will drop & they won't be getting any revenue from corporates 4. Gov't will announce a National model based on profits following Productivity Commission report 5. V'Landys will resign as he has completely stuffed NSW racing industry |
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Not sure they aren't fighting over a dying product, I don't sense a lot of new horse punters just completing their HSC.
This air of optimism from the enemy does worry me a bit. |
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I can't count tho the two no 3s will occur smultaneously
(note i hope none of that happens & BF win case & the appeal) |
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fk me Kye, i think i disagree with every point u made
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I honestly believe bf will win. The charade of optimism from NSW racing makes me even more confident. But as I have said before the losing side will appeal and then whoever loses the appeal will also appeal. I can see this being in the courts for another 5 years.
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Surely you agree with the last point (no matter which way things turn out with Court case)
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This case is based on Section 92 of the Commonwealth constitution: that trade between the states shall be free. The claim is that there is a charge being levied on BF that is not being levied on NSW based bookies. I have no idea of the facts of the case. Constitutional law is incredibly complex and it would be brave to call the decision. For the record, you can appeal a Federal Court decision to the High Court - and that's the end of the line.
I found a good (if slightly biased) link re the case: http://formguide.cyberhorse.com.au/index.php/2009112739953/Industry/Loss-Looms-For-Racing-NSW.html |
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http://formguide.cyberhorse.com.au/
index.php/2009112739953/Industry/ Loss-Looms-For-Racing-NSW.html |
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The NSW bookmakers are paying the 1.5%, Betfair's case is that the tax discriminates against them in favor of the NSW TAB.
Sportsbet are arguing under another bit of the constitution that deals with commonwealth and state laws clashing. |
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Is this a single Federal Court judgement, if so there might a another level of appeal to a full Federal Court before the High Court, depending on the findings and discretion of the High Court.
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this wont be strung out if b/f- bookies win. if the nsw racing, appeals it still means they cant touch the money they have collected and r still collecting that at the moment i beleive around 16mil, so for the next 2-4years they will deprive themselves of that revenue while they r fighting....i dont think they can afford to have 30-50mil in revenue just sitting there, they will come to the party so they get their hands on the loot.
and Kye i might beleive in your last point, but those positions r revolving doors anyway, jobs for the boys and a step up to a higher paying position, they all evenually defect to the opposition |
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To my knowledge, Racing NSW has access to and have been able to use the funds paid to them (under protest) by Betfair any which way they see fit.
I'm pretty sure the line Super Pete trotted out a while back was along the lines of "it would be financially irresponsible of us to spend this money before the court case ruling, on the off chance thry lost" |
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Correct Mr Spandex - they are holding onto it by choice, I wouldn't be surprised that if BF win they told them to keep it as a goodwill gesture
I wonder if the Federal Court can rule on a constitutional issue, or does that need to be the High Court??? Either way, best of luck tomorrow BF |
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I would be very surprised if Betfair displayed such a gesture.
Mr Packer may be surprised as well. |
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tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick.....
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tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick.....
sky channel describes this on the program guide as a decision that could change racing forever........  |
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what time can we expect the decision ??[smiley:crazy]
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the big fella is there....and we will know asap according to sky....could take a while for delivery of the decision?
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vlandys reckons if they win all the strappers trainers etc etc will be winners......ffs ...why pete are you gunna give them the money yourself?
what? are the trainers going to pay strappers more money? highly unlikely just as unlikely any owner will stomach training increases |
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we won
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA VLANDYS!!!
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Hope Valandy's resigns and someone with common sense takes over racing NSW
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maybe not.
sky went off a bit early  |
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bf decision at 11.30 cant see it being different
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Betfair decision not until 11:30am according to AB
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* Vlandys
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