New Posts For Thread: calculating exacta and trifecta divvieshttps://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divviesI am aware of Harville's work in this area,but find I am uncomfortable with the figures.e.g 4/1defeats 9/1=39/1whilst 9/1 defeats 4/1 = 44/1seems the difference in 'real' terms is not great enough.Does anyone have a table that skews the weight moreMarket efficiency is just getting the win percent of odds to see if there's an edge.For instance $10 might win 11%,so you would want to back every $10 or Caulfield 1200 favorites under $2 might win 33% of the time and so on.https://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518732203#518732203Market efficiency is just getting the win percent of odds to see if there's an edge.For instance $10 might win 11%,so you would want to back every $10 or Caulfield 1200 favorites under $2 might win 33% of the time and so on.Tue, 17 Apr 2012 19:19:47 -0500this one is a bit easierhttp://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/racing/index.cgi/noframes/read/89https://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518731261#518731261this one is a bit easierhttp://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/racing/index.cgi/noframes/read/89Tue, 17 Apr 2012 18:45:13 -0500Unclee Yes,no difference with quinellas and exactas. I have never tried, what you are suggesting, but it does seem plausible.https://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518731021#518731021Unclee Yes,no difference with quinellas and exactas. I have never tried, what you are suggesting, but it does seem plausible.Tue, 17 Apr 2012 18:37:23 -0500wrap your head around thishttp://bet4place.com/user/image/efficiencyofthemarketforracetrackbetting.pdfhttps://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518730905#518730905wrap your head around thishttp://bet4place.com/user/image/efficiencyofthemarketforracetrackbetting.pdfTue, 17 Apr 2012 18:34:12 -0500Look you're better off making your own selections via your prices. Essentially put prices higher then your own as 1st,2,3 and prices that are $1 - $1.5 off your price as 2,3 for the tris. A program will only spit out all the combinations and pay offshttps://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518709635#518709635Look you're better off making your own selections via your prices. Essentially put prices higher then your own as 1st,2,3 and prices that are $1 - $1.5 off your price as 2,3 for the tris. A program will only spit out all the combinations and pay offsTue, 17 Apr 2012 08:56:25 -0500my head hurts obviously there will be a favourite bias and a percentage of markets will be out because of a big betting owner etc but wouldn't the easiest way be to look at a sample of races and see if there is a pattern???i.e. do a spreadsheet thathttps://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518704333#518704333my head hurts obviously there will be a favourite bias and a percentage of markets will be out because of a big betting owner etc but wouldn't the easiest way be to look at a sample of races and see if there is a pattern???i.e. do a spreadsheet thatTue, 17 Apr 2012 06:10:36 -0500If you look at the Tab site and click results, a few minutes after the race is finished all the dividends come up, including exactas and trifectas. No need for complex formulas.https://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518700391#518700391If you look at the Tab site and click results, a few minutes after the race is finished all the dividends come up, including exactas and trifectas. No need for complex formulas.Tue, 17 Apr 2012 01:30:16 -0500Thanks whoopi, yours is the only post I understood. . I would have thought the takeout rates would make it challenging to maintain long term "overs"on the exotics.https://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518700371#518700371Thanks whoopi, yours is the only post I understood. . I would have thought the takeout rates would make it challenging to maintain long term "overs"on the exotics.Tue, 17 Apr 2012 01:29:05 -0500good luck to you all. No idea what any of the stuff on this thread means. But if it works nobody can argue with successhttps://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518700037#518700037good luck to you all. No idea what any of the stuff on this thread means. But if it works nobody can argue with successTue, 17 Apr 2012 00:50:13 -0500castiron, do you think that holds for quin/exactas or would those pools be open to timing as well? due to people placing bets on overs according to pre race odds... so you could get above 5% without eroding by deliberately putting small bets on earlihttps://community.betfair.com/australian/go/thread/view/93998/29065791/calculating-exacta-and-trifecta-divvies?post_id=518699485#518699485castiron, do you think that holds for quin/exactas or would those pools be open to timing as well? due to people placing bets on overs according to pre race odds... so you could get above 5% without eroding by deliberately putting small bets on earliMon, 16 Apr 2012 23:48:41 -0500