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The 1.1-2.0 challenge

12 Jul 11 19:40
HELLO, good evening and welcome to my boa constrictorbite*-infused blog. I've been buying a lot of furniture recently, followers, more for a daft laugh than anything else. A bit of ming here, a bit of mong there. It's amazing what the Tokyo branch of Ikea has in stock sometimes. I digress. My latest bit of betting tomfoolery comes in the shape of a little challenge to myself. I'm going to try & see if I can identify the 'best value' (in layman's terms, what I reckon'll win) 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9 and 2.0 shots over the next few days.

Then I'll duly pile a sh!t load of money into each, in an attempt to win even more cash for further examples of daft furniture (a recent example being a reconditioned art deco record cabinet - with self-supporting lid, crazy diamante handles & sections for 78s, 45s and 33 and a thirds). It's pretty sexy I have to say. I might attempt to chat it up later.

Sorry this blog holds no tangible advice, but I'll post the first of the 1.1-2.0 challenge soon enough, just so you can all keep tabs on my success - and perhaps enjoy a bit of vicarious fortune yourself.

Good luck and happy punting.

Remember: there's no shame in being eccentric, just make sure that if your habits contravene local by-laws, keep them indoors - preferably with the curtains shut.

*Ingredients - Diamond White, Carlsberg Export & a shot of Eristoff vodka
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HELLO, good evening & welcome to my blog. Sorry I haven't posted many tips lately, but I've been busy paper trading a few systems, with mixed results. That's what paper trading is for, though, making sure a system is a successful one before committing it to the old 'hard earned'. Here's the latest in my A-Z of Better Punting for the time being. I'll dish out some tips in the very near future - hopefully within the next few days. Until then, enjoy the weather & stay safe.

N is for No Score
Backing 0-0 can be a very risky habit. Especially if it’s cricket.
Sorry.
Back 0-0 on Betfair, however, and a whole host of possibilities open up for laying it off as the game progresses. This is best done if you happen to be watching the match in question as it adds to the fun, rather than by sitting and watching the odds update on the website. Watch out for correct score betting and first goalscorer betting in this instance too as any match that you think may finish 0-0 and you don’t want to attempt to lay it off, or can’t be bothered, always back ‘no goalscorer’ rather than ‘correct score 0-0’. Why? Because if it happens to finish 1-0 or 0-1 or any score where all the goals have been own goals you will still be paid out. Okay, it’s unlikely that any game finishing with more than one goal in it will be all own goals (Sunderland 0-3 Middlesbrough is a famous example in the last few years), but it’s just a bit of tiny extra insurance for (usually) exactly the same odds. To sum up, if you want to back 0-0 without laying it off, go for ‘no goalscorer’ in the ‘first goalscorer’ market, rather than ‘0-0’ in the ‘correct score’ market. As always, read the terms & conditions just to make sure.

N is also for Never bet on someone to do something they’ve never done before!
Read the above header twice. It sounds a bit complicated to start with, then becomes blindingly obvious. Still, thousands of punters every day fall into the trap of placing money on the chance that something incredibly unlikely might just happen. Take for example first goalscorer markets. Mmm… Johnny Jones is priced at 33/1. Good player, Jonesy, has stuck with his team for years, made x number of appearances for his home town club. But has he ever scored first in a match? No? Well, why should he suddenly change a habit of a lifetime and score first just because you backed him? Don’t take that chance. First goalscorer betting is virtually a lottery to start with.
All types of bet, however, apply to this golden rule. Have Rovers ever overturned a lead to come out victorious away from home? Have United ever scored more than six in a match in recent times? If they haven’t, don’t back it, regardless of how attractive the odds may seem. The small amounts of money lost here and there on ridiculous long shots that are never going to happen until Elvis lands on the Moon soon add up.
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HELLO, good evening and welcome to my latest blog. I’m feeling helpful tonight.

One-oh-ones getting gubbed?

Lurching wildly from multiple to multiple?

Chasing your losses like a lunatic?

Relax. Click out of the ‘deposit’ menu for a moment, take stock of your gambling habit and learn a few new tricks from me, Betfair’s top tipster. This evening’s enlightenment takes you through the letter ‘M’. Get involved, enjoy the read and start clawing back that money. Treat yourself, you deserve it.

M is for the Mind of the Better Punter
A better punter has a better, more focused mind than a mug punter. Only by staying focussed and putting your mind to the task ahead, i.e. making lots more money than you earn at present by skilful, educated punting, will you actually start to reap the financial rewards that all better betters enjoy.

Example 1
Manchester United are playing Oldham Athletic at home on Saturday. United haven’t beaten Oldham at home for 16 years. What is your first thought? Back Oldham? Back United? Back the draw? A better punter wouldn’t think any of those thoughts before he had a lot more facts at his disposal, besides the last time United actually played Oldham at home was 16 years ago.

Example 2
There’s a midweek match coming up between Bolton and Blackburn Rovers and for the life of them the bookies cannot separate the two teams. Bolton are slightly shorter priced due to their home advantage. Who do you back? The simple answer from a better better would be to swerve the match altogether as there will be much easier matches to correctly assess the outcome.

Example 3
The yellows are up against the blues. The yellows are top of the league and the blues are bottom. Who do you back? Try taking a look at the table first. If the season is only one match old, there could be nothing between the sides and the blues could be far the better side. Alternatively, the yellows may have already clinched the title and the blues might need just one point to stay up. The yellows may be top of the Conference and the blues bottom of the Premiership. The point to all three examples is that to make a winning selection, several aspects of the fixture need to be taken into consideration before you click that ‘bet’ button.

M is also for Mug punter
A mug punter is someone who bets on anything without knowing the true market facts and believes consistent winners are lucky rather than skilful. They’re easy to identify. These are the people you see visiting bookmakers day in, day out. Betting is a private matter and a pastime to be taken seriously, not done on a whim among a gaggle of noisy, nefarious misfits.

M is also for my ex-boss
I loved those days before my licence to kill was revoked. You should have seen the birds, the cars, the gadgets, the parties, the scrapes, the casinos, the guns, the whole effing lot & a little bit more.

I digress. That’s it for now, followers. Current system scores stand at 5/7, 2/3 and 2/2 for the tennis. More handy advice & hopefully a system bet or two soon.

Good luck & happy punting.

Remember: Being skint is no-one’s fault but your own.
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HELLO, good evening and welcome to my blog. I’ll cut to the chase as, in the words of my cousin Jack Bauer, we haven’t got much time. The “lay the bookies’ window” system is ready for its third outing this evening, with the match in question being Switzerland U-21s v Spain U-21s. I spotted a branch of Will Hill offering 13/2 (7.5) about a 2-0 win for Spain. There’s a good reason for this.

It won’t finish 2-0 to Spain.

Lay, lay, lay followers to complete your hat-trick of “lay the bookies’ window” system bets.
At the time of writing, you could still lay the above score on here for 8.0.

Good luck & happy punting!

Remember: Stick to the system and the money will stick to you
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HELLO, good afternoon and welcome to my blog. I mentioned Michael Llodra the other night as a sure-fire winner in the second round at Wimbledon and he duly came up trumps, defeating Brazilian Ricardo Mello in four sets. His next opponent is the Taiwanese 27-year-old Yen-Hsun Lu. No disrespect to his overall career record, but in recent times Lu has shone about as bright as Iceland in December. Back Llodra here for a nice easy 46 per cent return on your investment, then treat yourself to a bowl of strawbs and cream washed down with a little glass of champers.

The Frenchman is the proud owner of one of the tournament’s most consistent first serves and one of the most pleasing left-handed backhand techniques seen in the modern game. He’ll come through this test comfortably although he won’t have it as easy when he faces, most likely, the in-form Novak Djokovic in the fourth round.

The match is scheduled to start at 12pm tomorrow (Saturday).

Good luck & happy punting!

Remember: I know more than Hawkeye
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HELLO, good evening & welcome to my blog. Just a few wise words tonight before I stick a load of money on Michael Llodra (my 'L' tip for tomorrow) to beat Ricardo Mello in the second round of Wimbledon. He's short odds at 1.13, but compare the returns against your ISA & the Llodra shout wins comfortably. The experienced French left-hander has added a low-risk, high-percentage, flat first serve to his grass game of late to go with that sweet flourish of a backhand and will safely bring home the bacon for you.

I digress. Feel free to take in some of the handy advice below & keep your eyes peeled for some more system bets tomorrow.

L is for Loaf, and use thereof
Use your loaf to make some bread. In other words, think before you drink before you bet, look before you leap and make sure your brain is properly engaged before you click that ‘confirm’ button. I know of countless occasions where the wrong selection has been made in error, or the wrong stake amount has been placed in error just because a bet has been placed in a rush. Duly study the form, read the terms and conditions carefully and read the bet slip carefully before you commit. On Betfair in particular it’s sometimes easy to click the ‘lay’ button instead of the ‘bet’ button by mistake – a potentially heinous, bank-breaking error.

L is also for Laying
Laying can be as much fun as betting, and as profitable, in the right circumstances. A lay bet means that you effectively become the bookmaker and decide which odds you want to offer to potential punters. In a football match between United and City, for example, you’d make a profit if you laid City and the match ended in a United win or a draw. If you laid United, but City won or it was a draw then you’d win. If you laid the draw and either of the two sides won then you’d pick up your winnings.

In “two outcome only” events such as the major knock-out tournaments tennis, darts, snooker and so on where the match can only end with a winner and a loser, laying is slightly different as effectively all you do is pick who you think will lose rather than who will win. If you pick the loser correctly, you win the money. In events with large numbers of competitors, such as greyhound racing (six) or horse racing (up to 40) each dog or horse you lay means you are effectively backing all the others to win.

Choosing the right lay bet is every bit as scientific as choosing the right win bet. One question that is often raised by people interested in laying but not sure why they should pick a lay bet instead of a win bet, especially in a one-on-one contest, is “Why should I pick someone to lose, rather than someone to win?” The simple answer is, “It’s all about liability.” Your liability is the amount of money you stand to lose if your selection is unsuccessful. If you back something to win at 2/1, for example, and your stake is £10, your liability is also £10. If you win, you get £30 (£20 winnings, plus your original £10 stake returned to you). If you lose, you lose £10. If you were to lay something at 2/1, then to win £10 your liability would be £20. In other words, you’d stand to lose £20 if you got your lay bet wrong – i.e. the person/dog/horse you reckoned would lose actually won. If you got it right, however, and your assessment that the person/dog/horse would lose came true, then the £20 you put up in the first place would be returned to you, along with the £10 that some poor mug punter had thrown away in the hope that he’d be taking the loot.

It’s ‘cheaper’ to lay an odds-on favourite than it is to lay a rank outsider. To lay a 1/10 shot in an attempt to win £10 would only cost you a liability of £1, whereas to lay a 10/1 shot in an attempt to win £10 would cost you a liability of £100. Laying is only currently possible on betting exchange sites, such as Betfair, where you are going up against other punters, rather than bookies.

L is also for Limited Markets
If there are only a few matches/markets available to bet on, say for example it’s a Sunday and there are only six fixtures, don’t be tempted to bet on them all just because they’re there. This is a sure-fire way of losing your hard-earned. Take your time to single out a fixture that is easiest to research and, if you can gather sufficient evidence to back up your selection, go for your life. Choosing to bet on all the available events is not the way forward, regardless of how attractive the odds on an accumulator may seem. Let’s face it, if it was a Saturday and you had 40 or more matches to choose from you wouldn’t do an accumulator on them all, would you?

A better punter is strong enough to resist betting for a day if the right opportunity does not present itself.

That's it for now. Don't forget to get on Llodra for a sweat-free 13 per cent return on your investment. A steady drip fills the bucket & that drip needn't be the sweat from your forehead as you fret about where your next winner's coming from.
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HELLO, good evening and welcome to my blog. While the current two football systems in operation stand at 5/7 and 2/2 respectively, I have a new one for all you tennis fans. Tennis is a sport which polarises opinion like no other. Who would win in a match between McEnroe and Sampras at their respective peaks? Who was the most consistent performer out of Navratilova and Graf? Who has the most effective serve between Federer and Nadal? Who has the best knockers out of Dokic and Wozniacki?

If you fancy a punt on the tennis, but don’t know who to choose, the secret is simple. Back the minger. Take a look at the two players, check them out closely and whoever you deem to be the ugliest out of the pair, simply back that one. If the better looking of the two wins, you win as you get to watch them run around the court for another round. If the heinous one triumphs, you get some cash in your pocket to lessen the blow of someone you fancy bombing out. It’s a win-win situation.

What if they’re both mingers? Simple – swerve the match.

What if they’re both members of the sex you’re not interested in? Easy! Back the one you don’t like for whatever reason – this could be their hair, their clothes or their general demeanour. If nothing else, backing your own personal enfant terrible makes watching tennis far more enjoyable.

What if you fancy them both? Swerve it, slip into something comfortable and imagine you’ve laid the pair of them.   

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: be careful when you're using the words 'love' and 'deuce' in the same sentence
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HELLO, good morning and welcome to my blog. I’m not recommending a system bet today (although at 5/7 and 2/2 respectively we’re doing okay so far), but I am offering you all the chance of some seriously easy money.

This morning’s Vissel Kobe v Avispa Fukuoka fixture in the J-League is the match in question. While the home side are not exactly an all-time Brazil XI on difficulty level 5, the away team would struggle to give my Subbuteo team a game - and I’ve not even glued them all back to their bases.

Take a look at the recent form of the two sides and the odds offered for a home win are ludicrously high.

Vissel Kobe have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five. Avispa Fukuoka, however, have lost all five.

Avispa Fukuokup, more like.

Get involved, followers, for this is the best value 1.56 shot I’ve seen since I was knee high to a grasshopper. All fans of Kung Fu allow yourselves to roll in the aisles at this juncture.

Feel free to call in for more system bet recommendations over the next few days, from both new systems.

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: a steady drip fills the bucket
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CHECK out 'K' ladies & gentlemen! (system bets update coming soon)

K is for Keep your discipline
Just as chasing your losses is a financial disaster waiting to happen, trying to follow up a big win by piling a load of cash into something you haven’t researched properly is sheer folly. When you’ve enjoyed a big win - and with the right amount of scientific research you will do - relax and bask in the glory. Don’t go frittering away your cash because you suddenly think you must be on a lucky streak. There is no such thing as a lucky streak and if there is it won’t last long. Better punters don’t win by luck. They win by having a thorough knowledge of their markets and by disciplined betting. I've spent most of my adult life working on improving my betting, and by keeping a thorough spreadsheet of all my bets – including all wins and all losses. I have has not only honed my betting technique but also reached a point whereby I don’t need to place anywhere near the number of bets I used to in order to make a decent profit. Don’t make the mistake of following your mate who’s had a run of success (he most likely hasn’t, or isn’t telling you the full story) or following a tipster who’s got a few right over the last couple of days. They don’t know any more than you do! If they do, make it your business to know more than them. Knowledge is power, and in betting terms knowledge is free money! The most successful sportspeople, however much natural talent they may be blessed with, are the most focused and dedicated. This applies equally to the best punters.

K is also for Key Players
In all the 92 professional football teams in England and, in fact, every football team at all levels worldwide there are two or three key players who those teams rely upon to perform well and inspire the other members of the team to greater things. At the time of writing, if Manchester United were without Vidic, Ferdinand and Rooney in a match they’d be a far less effective team than one which featured all three. Similarly for Chelsea - take out Terry, Lampard and Drogba and suddenly the opposition aren’t quaking in their boots as much. Knowing the key players in the teams playing in the match you’ve decided to bet upon will give you an immediate advantage in picking the right bet. For instance, if the odds dictated that Team A and Team B were quite evenly matched, but Team A were without all three of their key players, whereas Team B had a full squad at their disposal, then suddenly the balance has swung in favour of Team B. Very often, the odds do not reflect these swings. Make sure you keep an eye on the local and national press (it’s free on the internet!) to see which teams might be weaker than the bookmakers expect them to be. 


K is also for Know your market
It’s all well and good being a world expert on United, but no use whatsoever if you know nothing of the relative strengths of City, Athletic, Rovers, Albion, Villa and so on. There are many ways to keep track of who you should be backing and who you should be avoiding – on the internet, there are punters’ forums, fanzines, official websites and stats sites for example. One great way of accurately predicting the result of two sides about to play each other is by monitoring their respective local newspapers online. Despite the local journalists wanting their sides to win deep down, the news is usually sufficiently factual enough to garner what you need in terms of mood, form, injuries and potential team selections.

K is also for 'Never bet on Kuban Krasnodar'
Flaming Ruskies cost me fair few rubles today.

Good luck & happy punting!
Remember: it's all about the destination, not the journey
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HELLO, good evening and welcome to my blog. Exciting times are ahead, followers, for we have not one, not two, but THREE system bets with which to get involved tomorrow (Friday).

EACH fixture is in the Russian Premier League, where goals are as rare as rocking horse doo-dah. The following three matches all comfortably qualify for the ‘under 3.5/any unquoted correct score’ system, providing of course Betfair deigns to offer the necessary markets.

TAKE a look at the recent goalscoring – or lack of it – for the sides contesting the following matches and it makes for grim reading. It takes me back to my schooldays when the teachers were trying to make me read The Old Curiosity Shop when all I was curious about were the contents of the top shelf of the paper shop at the bottom of my street.

Tom Tomsk v Lokomotiv Moscow – couldn’t score in a house of ill repute
Kuban Kazan v Amkar Perm – like watching paint dry
Volga v Krylya Sovetov – if they were playing in my back garden I’d draw the curtains

LOOK to Dutch under 3.5 with any unquoted for a return of around 15 per cent on each game.
Your stake ratio should be in the region of  85-89/15-11, with the ‘any unquoted’ portion serving as your safety net in the event of sendings-off and bizarre refereeing leading to a wholly unlikely goalfest.

TO sum up, look for odds of around 1.25-1.45 on under 3.5 and 10.5-14.5 on the any unquoted market for a relaxing return of about 15 per cent. Use a dutching calculator if you’re in any doubt (these can be found online – try oddschecker.com for example) and work on the principle that a successful punt for a small return beats an unsuccessful punt on big odds every time.
Feel free to call in for more system bet recommendations over the next few days, from both new systems.

Good luck and happy punting!

Remember: a steady drip fills the bucket
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