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betilyerded
13 Feb 13 20:03
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Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
Thought he ran a great race in last years national and if he had been given a more restrained ride could have gone close. In addition, as a staying on 2nd in a hennessy had a good profile for the race and at 50-1 for this years race was a bit of value given his rating. I was therefore a little taken aback today to read Phillip Hobbs' comments that he thought the horse didnt get home last year and is unlikely to run. So why then enter him again. Can someone explain that to me? Is it a smoke screen? very strange.
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Report judorick February 14, 2013 12:51 AM GMT
just been studying this horse, along with others, and he does look a non stayer, a more patient ride might help but basically short runner
Report TYSON 2 February 15, 2013 9:03 PM GMT
Thought the 7lbs weight drop would help a lot,really fancied it,especially on his Punchestown form.Shame Mr.Hobbs doesn,t think so! - had a right go at 140,s. why enter this year if they thought he is a short runner!
Report betilyerded February 15, 2013 10:31 PM GMT
I considered backing him last year and was beginning to regret it at halfway, he jumped the fences so well. My initial instinct after the race was to watch for him next year. Im not sure Richard Johnson would be my first choice of jockey around Aintree as he is generally quite an aggressive rider and I feel a more restrained approach to the course is often the best policy. I just dont have him as non stayer simply because of the way he ran in the Hennessy and felt far too much was made of him last year. Maybe the Topham is his aim?
Report BarryM February 23, 2013 11:43 AM GMT
He wasn't a non-stayer in the Hennessy because he stays 3m2f. He was a non-stayer in the National because he doesn't stay 4m4f.  Not that complicated really? Not unusual either. People see horses staying stoutly at 3m and then are baffled when they struggle to last home in the National, but that makes no sense. Going from 3m to the National is the same % jump in distance as going from 2m to 3m.  The fact is that the vast majority of horses who stay 3m don't stay 4 1/2.

Some horses develop more stamina as they get older, maybe they put him in for that reason. Maybe they were hoping some mug owner wanting a thrill would offer them a vast sum of money for a horse nearing retirement just so they could have a runner and see him up front for a while. Who knows. I agree with Mr Hobbs analysis.

I would add that this horse ran very well last time out on ground he wouldn't have liked, and could be interesting for one of the big spring handicaps.
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods February 24, 2013 11:04 PM GMT
Ran a cracker last year until the petrol tank ran empty. If he runs again this year it will be the same scenario
Report booster March 25, 2013 8:55 PM GMT
Going for the Topham, I think. Ridden up with the pace he could take some catching.
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