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sintonian
21 Mar 12 17:00
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 28,191 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Looks a smashing bet to me, really does.

He won a recognised trial last time out at Haydock, easily. He is officially 6lb well-in, with more to come, jumps great and is ridden handily.

The form from his races this season, and those of last season have worked out fine. He is in the form of his life this season having Won 2/3. But the beauty for me is the fact he has had a nice 6 week break between each run, the trainer has managed him perfectly and found the key to keeping him sweet.

Connections have stated he must have heavy ground, but for me that does the horse a disserivice. He won a novice hurdle under a penalty on GS, and the same arguement was made for Synchronised! Aintree will water the going like last year if it is too quick, so it will be nice and safe. Off a mark of 138 he looks a smashing bet, he has the right profile for this race with the right exposure and experience.

Off a mark of 138, he should be able to travel within himslef most of the way and in theory have no trouble of staying the trip. I believe Giles Cross is a 150 horse. Money is down. Excited

Good luck.
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Report kelami March 21, 2012 5:35 PM GMT
Hope you're right. Backed him on here all rates down from 220 to 120. Ideal ground would be soft, though i believe good/soft will be ok. His jumping will be a major asset, likely to be up front out of trouble & stays all day. Bring on the rain!!
Report layingisthewayforward March 21, 2012 9:14 PM GMT
he is my pick as well, will he get in?
Report layingisthewayforward March 21, 2012 9:16 PM GMT
Also 25's with numerous firms and 42 on here!
Report sintonian March 21, 2012 10:37 PM GMT
20/1 is with the NRNB concession ..
Report GoldCupWinner March 21, 2012 11:23 PM GMT
Would have to be against you on this one. Can't be a coincidence that every time he has pulled up the going has had good in the description. Also doesn't look like he will stay the marathon trip. Got beat 100 lengths and finished very tired each time tried 4 miles.
Report woodmanchester March 22, 2012 8:48 AM GMT
Officially 6lb well in? Will that make the slightest bit of difference 4.5 miles over fences of that nature? The race is and always will be a lottery. You could pick 3/4 of the field and still not get the winner. Greatest "leveller" race in existence. Anything could win and frequently does!
Report proctor strikes March 22, 2012 9:50 AM GMT
non stayer, which might sound surprising given he runs in long distance races, but 4m 4f is a lot different to 3m 4f.  O'Regan gave him a very clever ride lto and i dont think there was actually much in the tank, depsite looking to win cosy. Needs a bog too as hits the ground hard. The way he went from looking the winner 4 out to clambering over the last in the Welsh National tells its own story.
Report roobuck March 22, 2012 2:38 PM GMT
This is an interesting one.

First and foremost you need a horse that will take to the fences and whist you can never ve sure until they try, as GC is such a good jumper it is not unreasonable to believe he will enjoy the test.

However the advantage he has gained with his jumping may be because of his ability to jump out of bad ground. The likelier quicker ground may be a leveller in that respect but it will help GC get the trip. I would have concerns about the trip because like others he has simply been outstayed in the last two Welsh Nationals and the Eider last year.

He is remarkably consistent and as long as he enjoys the fences, he will be prominent and you will certainly get a run for your money. Usually I prefer horses that are up with the pace in staying chases.

There are a lot worse bets than this one but also a couple I prefer more
Report sintonian March 22, 2012 3:43 PM GMT
I'd agree about the non-stayer comments, I thought the same myself after each run at Chepstow. If you stop the race 3 furlongs from home each time he is the clear-cut winner. But you have to look at the horses that then stayed on past him and Won. One of them was Synchronised, and the other was Le Beau Bai who is a Chepstow specialist and had placed in the National previously off a 12lb higher mark.

Given that the horse seems to be in the form of his life at the momemt, and he'll be receiving weight from most of the runners should he get a run, then on this less demanding track and probable better ground then he may well stay the trip. Denis O'regan can ride a race from the front again like he did at Haydock.
Report sintonian March 22, 2012 3:52 PM GMT
Kelami, what do you think about the Ground & Trip ?
Report kelami March 22, 2012 4:32 PM GMT
I believe good/soft will be ok, but was talking to a friend this morning who knows the owner & she thinks it will have to be soft for the horse to be allowed to take his chance. As for the trip, you dont know for sure until the horse tries it, but i would be reasonably hopeful.
Report Far From Trouble March 22, 2012 4:44 PM GMT
I wouldn't use the eider as evidence that he didn't stay either

that was such a brutal race, even the winner didn't stay in those conditions!
Report sintonian March 22, 2012 4:55 PM GMT
OK thanks Kelami. When you say allowed then presumably it is the trainer with the final call as opposed to the owner ..

Agree re the Eider, so many horses fail to even complete that race it's like running the Gauntlet.
Report TWODOGGS March 22, 2012 7:16 PM GMT
Love this nag. I was so happy he finally won a decent race lto. Even though he looks made for Aintree I cant have him on good ground. I fear they would go too quick for GC who simply has to be prominent all the time!

He needs it to be Idealy g/s-sft, I woudnt want it Hvy as that would suit others more ie LBB, WER and the current Gold Cup winner. He stays the distance imo providing its not a bog.
Report tinkler March 22, 2012 8:02 PM GMT
Does anyone know what connections intentions are with Giles Cross re this race?
Report yourlack March 22, 2012 8:12 PM GMT
To win it id imagine tinklerLaugh
Report bosra shame March 23, 2012 4:14 PM GMT
The stats are dreadful for winners of the Haydock National trial. Plenty of National winners have come from placed and unplaced runners but I think I am right in saying the winner has never gone on the win the National in the same season
Report tinkler March 23, 2012 6:49 PM GMT
But do they intent to be in it to win it or are they only going to run on soft ground and say we won't be in it on Good or faster ground so cann't win it.
Do previous stats have that much relevance for this race now that they water extensively and the size of
the fences has been reduced?
I cann't see too many negatives with Giles Cross in the National and his jumping technique looks ideal
for the fences. His second to Synchronised last year strongly suggests he's got a lot of class and
is there a jockey riding better than Denis O'regan?
Going to take the cautious approch and wait for connections to fully commit before risking any money
though the 20/1 nrnb is tempting and I'm probably being greedy in waiting.
Report PeteTheBloke March 23, 2012 8:10 PM GMT
Sint
Do you think he'll get in? If yes, then which 6 do you think will be out?
I know you're nrnb, but I bet you've done the analysis Cool
Report PeteTheBloke March 23, 2012 9:32 PM GMT
I've been looking down the card. I'm no expert, but here are a few that must be doubtful. The
percentages are highly speculative and I'd welcome other opinions.

Synchronised - Trainer reportedly keen to run. History suggests it's more unlikely. Owner definitely a sportsman. 50% ??

Quel Esprit - Missed the Gold Cup - "not right". Must be no better than, say 40%

Black Apalachi - One race in 2 years, but was aimed at the race last year. 80% ??

West End Rocker - Missed a prep race a few weeks ago. 80% ??

Postmaster - Long time since a race. Must be unlikely to go. 75% ??
Report PeteTheBloke March 23, 2012 9:39 PM GMT
Here's one for people who like C+D specialists...

State Of Play - Last two runs, 4th and 3rd in the National (2011 and 2010 respectively).
Report zilzal1 March 23, 2012 9:44 PM GMT
State of Play= The PilgarlicGrin
Report Tatie Baron March 24, 2012 8:36 AM GMT
Pete, The reason West End Rocker missed his prep was because The Baldfred Classic at Warwick was before The Grand National weights came out and connections wanted to protect his mark, hardly a negative.
Report PeteTheBloke March 24, 2012 11:28 AM GMT
Thanks TB. I didn't know that. My list is completely speculative. I was hoping to
prompt Sint or the Headmaster to come up with a full list of every horses' prospects.
Report Fabulous March 24, 2012 3:10 PM GMT
Pete, he also missed The Grimthorpe at Doncaster a few weeks ago. Withdrawn on the day because of the ground.
Report chuck6969696969 March 25, 2012 9:34 PM BST
i can only agree he has an amazing chance i was hoping he would get in last year as i thought he could have won it then but a year on and he has improved im hoping he drifts then back him just b4 the off
Report sintonian March 26, 2012 4:22 PM BST
Pete, I dont think Synchronised will run. I know Jonjo seems positive but prior to this season McCoy has always said he would struggle with the fences at Aintree. They also said this season each run takes a lot out of him so I dont see 4 weeks being sufficient for him to recover from the GC.

The Package - will he runs in this have only had one previous run this season with his main aim being the 3m chase at the festival where he finished 4th ? They might send him to the Grade 3 3m h'cap chase at the same meeting over regulation fences.

I cant see Mullins running all of his. They wont all like Aintree!

Deep Purple finished distressed last time out so debateable.
Report sintonian March 26, 2012 4:26 PM BST
Is Weird Al a definate ? PU last time, they might save him for another crack at the Charlie Hall.
Report sintonian March 26, 2012 4:27 PM BST
WER definately runs. He only missed his prep because they did not want to risk jarring him up on the quick going at Donny.
Report sintonian March 26, 2012 4:31 PM BST
Pearlysteps pulled-up at the weekend, making it two races in a row now. I cant see him running tbh.

So basically Pete, i'd be very surprised if GC did not get in! LaughCool
Report PeteTheBloke March 26, 2012 6:40 PM BST
Good man Sint. Thanks.
Report liqernpoker March 27, 2012 4:32 PM BST
with the ground conditions clearly a concern i cannot see the dartnals risking him round aintree and the fact hes now been quoted for irish equivalent makes 16-1 a far better betting proposition for this race than aintree imo ( how do english ratings relate in irish races ??? )
Report sintonian March 27, 2012 5:19 PM BST
Yep they have said they will consider Ireland if the Going does not look suitable in Aintree.
Report Rod Tidwell March 27, 2012 6:42 PM BST
looks to be on a 6lb better mark in the English race
Report CoMeDY OF ErrORS March 28, 2012 1:08 PM BST
Really like Giles Cross.

But he needs soft ground.

Despite the clerk of the course's best efforts to keep the large expanse of Aintree on the soft side of good.  It is an unequal battle with the forecast until Easter most likely to be dry. 

So in my opinion he has no chance and may not even run.
Report tinkler March 28, 2012 6:01 PM BST
RP weekender 28/3 Alan King
   Of the key players for liverpool WEST END ROCKER is in terrific form and I can't wait to get him there.
Although he prefers some give I am sure they will ensure we get good safe ground. His long absence from
the track is purely down to the fact that I protected his handicap mark until the  weights were announced and then the ground went too quick for him at Doncaster where we planned his prep run
Report NonShy.. March 28, 2012 10:40 PM BST
if ground better than GS it won't run

47/1 now
Report sintonian April 3, 2012 1:15 PM BST
Victor Dartnall is aiming Giles Cross at Aintree rather than take him to Fairyhouse for the Irish equivalent on Monday, but he too would love to see some rain on Merseyside for his Haydock Grand National Trial winner.

"It looks as though he'll be going to Aintree now because the ground isn't soft enough for him over in Ireland," said the Devon trainer.

"It's more likely to be softer at Aintree. It is softer there at the moment and hopefully they will get some more rain.

"He's in great form and let's hope we are able to run him.

"He should get in the race now as there are a few to come out."

Giles Cross, who was 15 lengths ahead of Cappa Bleu when second to Le Beau Bai in the Welsh National, will have a different jockey on board as his regular partner, Denis O'Regan, is unable to ride at 10st 1lb.

"Denis can't do the weight and the ones at the top are staying in," Dartnall went on.

"It's a shame as he gets on so well with him. We've got someone in mind but we haven't decided yet.

"The horse is in great order and if it was good to soft ground it would be brilliant for him."
Report jasey April 3, 2012 7:01 PM BST
What chance is there of soft ground,because i think good to soft is no good.
I have had my fingers burnt with these types before.
Good jumper,placed form in nationals,won a valuable race,but  all his best form is on heavy
Report town moor April 3, 2012 7:18 PM BST
Re WER, at the grimthorpe meeting he was brought to the pre-parade for a few laps, just to show him off, where the owner told all who would listen that the horse would not be beaten at aintree. I can't really understand such confidence in this sort of race, and personally he's not for me.
Report tinkler April 4, 2012 3:54 PM BST
RP weekender 4/4 Alan King" With the grand national less than 2 weeks away I was delighted to be able to take
WEST END ROCKER down the road to work on the superb manton gallops thanks to Brian Meehan.It was good to get him away
from his usual enviroment and he did a strong piece of work over a mile on the Polytrack on tuesday morning.
I could not have been more pleased with him and he appears in grand form.It is now all systems go for Saturday week"
Report roobuck April 9, 2012 7:23 PM BST
With the soft ground now, had to have a complete change of tack and GC will have to be part of the portfolio.

Added to Cappa Bleu that was done some time ago but will add West End Rocker and also Seabass ( to small stakes ). However with the conditions likely to remain soft if not worse looking at the forecast I think that 40s Le Beau Bai e/w is also a good bet. Like Synchronised he is far from a natural jumper so the fences may be a real issue but happy to take a chance at that price as he is one horse I would be confident to stay the distance in testing conditions.
Report PeteTheBloke April 9, 2012 7:26 PM BST
Good luck with this one Sint. I'm keeping it a winner on your advice. Looks like everything's coming
together for youse.
Report jasey April 9, 2012 7:52 PM BST
i have called  this horse a  plodder,and also said he had no chance,but yesterday i took a bit of 25s.
in this game you always need an open mind
Report PeteTheBloke April 9, 2012 8:03 PM BST
You're a clever chap jasey. 16s now. Did you know that?
Report jasey April 9, 2012 8:23 PM BST
yes.how short will he go?
Report PeteTheBloke April 9, 2012 8:26 PM BST
Dunno. There's people suggesting Synch could be as tight as 4/1... which I personally think is mental.
Giles can only tighten so much if there are mountains of money for Synch.
Report tinkler April 9, 2012 8:43 PM BST
RP 9/4 Trainer stated p.Brennan will ride GC and that he offered the ride to O'regan putting up overweight. O'regan said he didn't think it was the right thing to do due to him having to waist down
to 10/4 and then use a 1lb saddle so  reluctantly declined the offer.
Victor Dartnell " The horse is absolutely sparkling I've never had him like this before"
Report buzby April 9, 2012 8:44 PM BST
have lots of fancy prices as horse was bred and owned by my relation ,her other big winner was a mare called crumpet delight which won the saddle of gold mares final at newbury many years ago. good luck giles.
Report cruise d April 9, 2012 11:33 PM BST
Hope you are right Sint. I have this is my main selection, I will be backing several otehrs at bigger prices but of those at the head of the market this looks the one to be in for me.
Report stevo1 April 10, 2012 1:53 AM BST
55s on here and 25s e/w Nr No Bet, on Giles Cross Brennan decent sub for Denis,  so will look to lay little off and have few savers, Sunnyhillboy when confirmed and already on Becauseicouldntsee 33s and 40s on here, owes me from Cheltenham backed at 16s e/w, if getting over first half dozen fluently could run huge race from near the front imo.
Report 247lol April 10, 2012 2:45 AM BST
It doesnt stay so dont waste your money,on stats and breeding theres only 4 horses imo that come into it,will be posted tomorrow.
Report sintonian April 10, 2012 10:59 AM BST
Staying the distance is the one doubt I have. Im hoping a flatter track unlike Chepstow will see him get the trip.

I know the horse handles testing ground, but I personally wouldn't like it so testing to aid his stamina in the finish, but hopefully his lenient mark of 138 will help counter-act that.

I am not an in-running trader but do remember several horses in the past going extremely well on the second circuit and being available to lay at 7/2 - 9/2 so it might be an idea to do that. I wont be however.

Good luck Pete. WER is my other bet.
Report booster April 10, 2012 11:12 AM BST
Giles Cross looked very classy at Haydock but I'd be a bit worried that Le Beau Bai was able to run him down in The Welsh National after he'd gone clear in the straight. He may be a classier horse than the winner that day, he may be better suited to a flat track but over 7 furlongs further the value has to be with Richard Lee's horse. There won't be much chance to get a breather here and you're going to have to stay to win.
Report Sultan April 10, 2012 12:54 PM BST
Neptune Collonges is handicapped to beat Giles Cross on their Haydock form. Available at 33-1 with bookies and 40 on here. If you fancy Giles Cross than you have to back Netune Collonges as well
Report ReaseHeath April 10, 2012 1:05 PM BST
^my thinking too - very impressed with NC at Haydock - his jumping was fantastic and ran a massive race on the weekend when all the other Nicholls horses (except Zarkander) ran horribly.

Might also be a bit more juice in the price on basis Ruby prefers On His Own (which surprises me).
Report sintonian April 10, 2012 3:31 PM BST
How is he handicapped to beat GC Sultan ?
Report jasey April 10, 2012 3:45 PM BST
i thought neptune is worse off with giles
Report kelami April 10, 2012 5:34 PM BST
Heavily backed again today. 14/1 the best you can now get. Come on Giles!
Report ReaseHeath April 10, 2012 6:05 PM BST
sintonian
10 Apr 12 15:31
Joined:
21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 18,315 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
How is he handicapped to beat GC Sultan ?

he is n't sint (appreciate it was probably a rhetorical question) - in fact he's 12 lb worse off if you factor in Derham's claim - does not mean he can't reverse the form over the Aintree fences and 1 mile further though, I was just very taken with the way he jumped and stayed at Haydock - the front two pulled well clear of Le Beau Bai.
Report ReaseHeath April 10, 2012 6:10 PM BST
^appreciate the weight carrying stat is against NC too - but there would n't be too many with his class who tried to carry more than 11st 5lb and that stat surely coms under pressure as the standard of the horses competing rises year by year.
Report sintonian April 10, 2012 8:13 PM BST
Yes he may well reverse the form under Aintree conditions, i'd accept that. Just from a handicapping point of view it looks difficult. Horses beaten in that Haydock race actually have a better record at Aintree.
Report trev w April 10, 2012 9:23 PM BST
dennis will have given paddy all is knowledge of giles....and i think he will hold onto him for as long as he can....giles very often has done all the donkey work...and perhaps pressed on at to strong a pace....i would love to see something else give paddy a tow for as long as possible...
Report Can't Catch Me April 10, 2012 10:28 PM BST
Personally I cant really work out why GC is 12's and Le Beau Bai 40's. I know who I'd rather be on!

Planet of Sound is my shout, also at 40's. I also think The Midnight Club is value at 33's. Great effort to be 6th last year when supposedly not quite right, and the rain will help his chances.... They are my three against the field at this stage.
Report jasey April 11, 2012 5:18 PM BST
Trainer has stated that LBB needs it heavy going,and soft is no good
Report booster April 11, 2012 8:04 PM BST
He's always said it wants the ground only just raceable as it was when he won both times at Chepstow this season but can't see him not running here. Surely there's nowhere else for him to go and the trip will help bring his stamina into play.
Report cruise d April 11, 2012 10:35 PM BST
I think he's stated as long as the word soft appears in the going it'l run. A little patter of rain should be enough, unlrss the ground is sunbaked I think they'll be running.

The trainer clearly knows the horse better than us but I think it needs a heavy to be seen at its best at around 3 miles. A bog in the national would have me very concerned about it staying as Sint suggested a few days ago.
Report phunkmonk April 13, 2012 11:02 AM BST
I thought that Giles Cross was a good bet at 25/1 but was suprised seeing all that money come for him and driving his price down to as low as 14/1.

Now I see that the price is drifted back upto 28.0 which I think is a big price and have had a nice amount on, but this is the Grand National after all and anything could win.

Good luck to those who are on Giles Cross!
Report buddeliea April 13, 2012 12:40 PM BST
yep,just took 27,looks a fair bet to me,and with predicted rain,can see him shortening again.
Report iamajambo April 13, 2012 3:21 PM BST
29 a couple of hours ago,now 19.5.Wink
Report iamajambo April 13, 2012 3:31 PM BST
Now 17.
Report keeping silent April 13, 2012 3:39 PM BST
Good good....Oddchecker made a mistake and had it half way down the list at 25s with Korals earlier....did worry when I scrolled down and couldn't find it near the top.
Report NonShy.. April 14, 2012 2:18 PM BST
30s now
Report buddeliea April 14, 2012 3:45 PM BST
aint got the rain,should still run well though,but some rain would have helped.
Report sintonian April 14, 2012 11:56 PM BST
Pulled-up.

Never looked like he was enjoying himself, probably the ground.

Given what happened to other horses in the race it was the right choice by the jockey.

See you in Cheptstow in December, Giles. Love
Report Sultan April 15, 2012 8:42 PM BST
Neptune Collonges wae 2lb better off for a neck beating and also looked the stronger stayer to me. Sorry for not answering before but was away at Liverpool for the races and only got back today
Report roobuck April 15, 2012 8:47 PM BST
Should not have run the horse imo
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