New Posts For Thread: A couple of GN questions I need answering please!!https://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-pleaseHi,just wondering if people could answer a couple of questions for me?1. There are a few horses in the GN that haven't won a Handicap. Does anyone know the last horse to win it that hadn't won 1?2. I see last years 2, 3 and 4 are fancied again this yI found a good site on Twitter, plenty of stats. According to it Amberleigh House (I think) last placed to win following year. Check for yourselves to be sure though, maybe I`ve missed one, lists 1-2-3 since race began:http://www.grandnationalrecordshttps://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=531030205#531030205I found a good site on Twitter, plenty of stats. According to it Amberleigh House (I think) last placed to win following year. Check for yourselves to be sure though, maybe I`ve missed one, lists 1-2-3 since race began:http://www.grandnationalrecordsFri, 05 Apr 2013 20:50:20 -0500TEAM SPIRIT ran 5 times and placed at least once, before winning at finalattempt.https://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530952887#530952887TEAM SPIRIT ran 5 times and placed at least once, before winning at finalattempt.Wed, 03 Apr 2013 06:44:31 -0500most trainers have not run their horses to often this winter due to the bad state of the ground, i have listened to trainers saying we want to run x amount of times but the weather has scuppered most plans hence the lack of runs for a lot of this yeahttps://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530945369#530945369most trainers have not run their horses to often this winter due to the bad state of the ground, i have listened to trainers saying we want to run x amount of times but the weather has scuppered most plans hence the lack of runs for a lot of this yeaTue, 02 Apr 2013 17:56:48 -0500The problem with stats and trends is they don't ask WHY. On average, it's probably true that over the years horses who have run less than 3 times fared poorly. What that completely misses though is that the race has changed in recent years. The fencehttps://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530944903#530944903The problem with stats and trends is they don't ask WHY. On average, it's probably true that over the years horses who have run less than 3 times fared poorly. What that completely misses though is that the race has changed in recent years. The fenceTue, 02 Apr 2013 17:36:45 -0500what about Little polvierhttps://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530944853#530944853what about Little polvierTue, 02 Apr 2013 17:33:56 -0500I always use trends,but i feel following this one might prevent you from having the winner in your final selections.Lots of horses this year have had two or less runs.Cappa also has not had a gruelling Welsh National run this year.https://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530943593#530943593I always use trends,but i feel following this one might prevent you from having the winner in your final selections.Lots of horses this year have had two or less runs.Cappa also has not had a gruelling Welsh National run this year.Tue, 02 Apr 2013 16:38:33 -0500There's a balance I think but with sufficient recovery time I'd like my horse to go there being fit and battle hardened.Stats are trends and trends give us punters a chance to build a profile of what it takes to be a winner of a certain race, they'rehttps://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530943029#530943029There's a balance I think but with sufficient recovery time I'd like my horse to go there being fit and battle hardened.Stats are trends and trends give us punters a chance to build a profile of what it takes to be a winner of a certain race, they'reTue, 02 Apr 2013 16:16:10 -0500So if he had ran in 4 gruelling races on heavy that would of been plus.Stats can often blindhttps://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530942433#530942433So if he had ran in 4 gruelling races on heavy that would of been plus.Stats can often blindTue, 02 Apr 2013 15:57:57 -0500True, but 2lb lower I think doesn't give him enough help to win the race, he'll run well and should get placed again.Also only 2 runs this year and I am a big believer that fitness is a key stat (3 runs) especially as his second run was 7 weeks ago,https://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530941957#530941957True, but 2lb lower I think doesn't give him enough help to win the race, he'll run well and should get placed again.Also only 2 runs this year and I am a big believer that fitness is a key stat (3 runs) especially as his second run was 7 weeks ago,Tue, 02 Apr 2013 15:43:42 -0500I'm on Cappa Bleu but not backing the other two. Reason being is that he is ona lower mark than last year. Also the horse he finished second behind LTO went on to run well at Cheltenham. May have improved being as lightly raced as he is.https://community.betfair.com/aintree2011/go/thread/view/121613/29842397/a-couple-of-gn-questions-i-need-answering-please?post_id=530941475#530941475I'm on Cappa Bleu but not backing the other two. Reason being is that he is ona lower mark than last year. Also the horse he finished second behind LTO went on to run well at Cheltenham. May have improved being as lightly raced as he is.Tue, 02 Apr 2013 15:32:48 -0500