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06 Jul 17 22:12
Date Joined: 10 Nov 10
| Topic/replies: 26,574 | Blogger: mesmerised's blog
Common sense for many, a results trap for many others, where a player who has just caused a very big upset much more often than not loses in the very next round and quite handsomely too, rarely is one big win/upset followed by another. There are a multitude of reasons for this (aside from just being the inferior player who was bound to lose anyway) such as…

1) Psychologically they are done, in their head they have already won their tournament in what felt like a final the previous round.
2) Naturally a drop in intensity occurs as the euphoric, sensation feeling of the big win still lingers.
3) They cannot cope with the new-found pressure of backing up such a big win, they succumb to the overwhelming positive response of friends, family, peers who are in contact immediately, the urge to satisfy and weight of expectation is too much to carry.
4) They are unsettled / perturbed by increased interest, publicity and media duties.
5) Big upsets usually involve gruelling or emotionally draining matches rather than simple straight sets wins which given their bodies and minds are not accustomed to, inevitably affects their performance in the next round.

Classic case in hand will be Brengle who will lose to Garcia tomorrow after beating Kvitova probably in straights.


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Report caramba July 6, 2017 10:27 PM BST
So you're saying Sorana will lose on Monday after winning against Garbine on Saturday?
Report mesmerised July 6, 2017 10:40 PM BST
She's an exception to this rule as she's always been the bigger player in my mind whoever she meets Cool
Report mouse trap July 7, 2017 9:13 PM BST
OP Cool
Report djwebby July 9, 2017 11:01 AM BST
I wish there were more posts like this on the forum; sometimes we just need to see it spelt out like this to realise what's really going on.
Report england_v_south_afri July 9, 2017 1:02 PM BST
Remember when Rosol beat Nadal in 2014. Rosol out next round. I think your on to something with this.
Report n88uk July 9, 2017 4:05 PM BST
A lot of the time the reason this happens is because upsetting the odds twice is unlikely. A lot of players who do a big upset are heavy underdog again next round to win, hence likely to lose.
Report johnnyrant July 11, 2017 10:19 AM BST
They invariably lose for all the reasons stated by the OP.
Report Platini July 11, 2017 12:29 PM BST
The next station is...

Gilles Muller Cool
Report lurka July 11, 2017 12:40 PM BST
After the Lord Mayor's show comes the dust-cart
Report caramba July 11, 2017 3:54 PM BST
Su-Wei Hsieh fell victim to this at Roland Garros.
Report n88uk July 11, 2017 4:14 PM BST
Madgalena Rybarikova hasn't though here, in part because what I said, she's been favourite in her matches since, she blew open her section by beating Pliskova. Most players like Muller are heavy odds against next round after their upset win.
Report Journeyman July 11, 2017 4:21 PM BST
Yeah Rybarikova (if she wins) is keeping very composed, isn't expending the energy like it's the match of her life. Should avoid this thread.

Plus she's 'expected' to comfortably lose all three of her matches. It's not like Rosol losing to Kohlschreiver in straight sets (which must be the classic example).
Report caramba July 11, 2017 4:27 PM BST
Kohli was sizable fave in that match (but Rosol was far lower than Kohli outright).
Report caramba July 11, 2017 4:40 PM BST
This stat is very noticable with Rafa Nadal. Robin Söderling beat him in R16 at RG 2009 and managed to make the final, but ever since that time any player that's caused a big upset against Rafa in a Slam has lost in the following round:
Ferrer AO 11, Rosol Wimbledon 12, Darcis Wimbledon 13 (withdrew), Kyrgios Wimbledon 14, Berdych AO 15, Brown Wimbledon 15, Fognini USO 15, Verdasco AO 16, Pouille USO 16.
So that doesn't bode well for Muller tomorrow.
Report Journeyman July 11, 2017 4:46 PM BST
Kohli was sizable fave in that match (but Rosol was far lower than Kohli outright).

Interesting divergence.

In contrast, Muller is priced as a massive dog both against Cilic and in O/R.
Suggests the two week strawberries and cream tennis punter 'ain't getting fooled again' after being burnt by Nadal v Rosol and Darcis in the space of two wimbledons.
Report mafeking July 11, 2017 7:47 PM BST
the 4 hour 48 mins and being 34 just might have a bit of an effect on him getting beat tomorrow rather than any let down after a big win
Report mesmerised July 11, 2017 8:06 PM BST
read point 5.
Report n88uk July 11, 2017 10:13 PM BST
Rosol was like 3s to beat Kohlschreiber.

The 5 hours match might be a factor, but the biggest factor is surely that if this had just hypothetically been a R1 match people would expect Cilic to win, he's simply a better player, that is the biggest factor.
Report mesmerised July 11, 2017 10:20 PM BST
You don't need to keep repeating that n88, if you read opening post aside from just being the inferior player who was bound to lose anyway, we know that is the main reason. Point being, the player is even less likely to cause another upset because of reasons stated.
Report england_v_south_afri July 12, 2017 4:19 PM BST
Surely Cilic is a good bet now currently 1.6. Didn't want to take 1.25 at the start.
Report england_v_south_afri July 12, 2017 4:22 PM BST
Boom layed off at 1.1. Job done.
Report eightbo July 12, 2017 11:27 PM BST
Decent thread here. Wonder how the profitability of a lay strategy would fair over the years on this. Would have to set some criteria of course, perhaps based on seeding

If i had to guess before i saw this thread, I would have guessed the odds for the player who just successfully upset a player would be too short on average due to the hype surrounding their victory.

Or do we think the odds are generally correct over a longer period where this happens?
Report mesmerised July 13, 2017 12:39 AM BST
that would be interesting to know, it does seem though that the big win the previous round does become a differential between the starting price after a big win and what it would have been without the big win, more often than not, it's never a huge differential however. Lay strategy based on it would require analysis of historic data.
Report england_v_south_afri July 14, 2017 2:07 PM BST
Do we think we can apply the same logic to other individual sports such as darts snooker etc. Obviously physically not an issue but certainly mentally affected in the next round.

I used to play a bit of snooker. I played a match and had my highest ever break in a match, a clearance of 87. I then went into the next round and played like a total novice and i exited the tournament.

Great thread by the way.
Report mesmerised July 14, 2017 8:27 PM BST
Do we think we can apply the same logic to other individual sports

don't see why not, every time Arsenal suffer a shock loss it seems to throw the team who beat them into a state of discombobulation, such is the enormity of the featShocked

It would be another interesting thing to research but too lengthy for me to do so, but in theory there's no reason why other sports or sports people can't/don't/wouldn't suffer from the same syndrome.

As a matter of interest, what happened to the rest of your name england v south afr... ?Grin
Report mouse trap July 14, 2017 8:39 PM BST
someone please explain mes what individual sport means. ty
Report geordie1956 July 14, 2017 8:44 PM BST
If you need to ask the question I doubt the answer will help
Report mesmerised July 14, 2017 8:49 PM BST
The contents of this post have been hidden for this blocked user: geordie1956.
You can manage your blocked users list    here .

my mistake mouseBlush. I don't follow Snooker or Darts however.

But it could still apply in team sports

I’ll give you two examples from football last season, Barcelona and Real Madrid, looking at the surprise losses they suffered in La Liga and the results of the team that beat them in the match after in La liga

Surprise defeat………………………….next match

Barcelona LOST to Alaves ……….Alaves DREW with Deportivo La Coruna
Barcelona LOST to Celta Vigo…..Celta LOST to Villerreal
Barcelona LOST to Deportivo…..Deportivo LOST to Celta Vigo
Barcelona LOST to Malaga……….Malaga lost to Deportivo La Coruna

Real Madrid LOST to Sevilla…….Sevilla BEAT Osasuna
Real Madrid LOST to Valencia….Valencia LOST to Deportivo Alaves

Madrid’s other loss was to Barca, but Barca are obviously not inferior.

Would need to look into the big 4 in England.
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