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palacegatetouch
22 Jan 17 21:15
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Date Joined: 21 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 192 | Blogger: palacegatetouch's blog
hi guys, just need sum input/suggestions from the great minds on here, i have a book on the o/right mkt in the mens tournament. Which reads 20 quid red and 1.9k on grigor dimi. cash out is offering £137 but using manual input it goes to £160CrazyCrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy....im thinking the best way to approach this is maybe lay dimitrov in the match odds (1.15) against istomin for maybe 200-300???? what odds would he be if he beats istomin in the o/right (currently trading 10.5), or are there to many factors to consider making it impossible to price it up....ie if stan/milos/fed get knocked out also how much thiem & goffin take out of each other!!!!
opinions negative or positive appreciated!!!
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Report bb66 January 22, 2017 11:51 PM GMT
odds on Dimi will drop only slightly (probably 10) after he's beaten Istomin, a bit more if Nadull or Raonic gets beaten, but only if both lose he'll shorten much. Results from the upper half won't have much effect on his odds as long as you can expect Wawa or Fed reaching the final.
Report n88uk January 23, 2017 12:56 AM GMT
1 warning although it's highly unlikely. But if Dimitrov retired in the first set you would end up totally screwed doing it this way.

I don't understand why you can't just do it manually in the outright which is safer anyway.

How the outright is much more complex anyway. In theory it kind of works like that, but in practice doesn't really. Because a lot of movement goes on how x player looks. So if Dimitrov ends up scraping through in 5 you might find he's bigger outright than he was before the match. How others look a big factor too.  It will also price correct as a player gets closer to winning if the outright price is just plain wrong (ie. there outright odds won't move in line with match odds).
Report palacegatetouch January 24, 2017 4:37 PM GMT
thx 4 the overwhelming response!!!!!lol
ended up laying him for a ton @ 9 (gone out 2 11) giving a new pos of 80 quid green or 1k on grigor....will watch tonight and maybe do some more ttrading on it.....cheers n88 & bb....
didnt want to do o/right n88 as got greedy re the nearly 2k green on grigor but sense prevailed in the end!!
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