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five leaves left
08 May 18 17:18
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Date Joined: 24 Dec 05
| Topic/replies: 107,715 | Blogger: five leaves left's blog
Evening campsters Cool

RO

1. Azerbaijan
2. Iceland
3. Albania
4. Belgium
5. Czech Republic
6. Lithuania
7. Israel
8. Belarus
9. Estonia
10. Bulgaria
11. F.Y.R. Macedonia
12. Croatia
13. Austria
14. Greece
15. Finland
16. Armenia
17. Switzerland
18. Ireland
19. Cyprus
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Pause Switch to Standard View *** Eurovision 2018 1st Semi IR ***
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Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:34 PM BST
You still think Cyprus is winning bear? I'm not at all convinced after that. Doing ok on FB but not smashing it
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:37 PM BST
i'm not convinced, but i still don't see anyone id back over her
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:37 PM BST
Possibly Lith
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:38 PM BST
Seeing the light Cool
Report Henry VIII May 8, 2018 9:38 PM BST
i have no idea now. another 2011.
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:38 PM BST
I was the first to spot Lith tbf Cool
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:39 PM BST
She probably needs 2nd half draw. Ieva that is. With Spain & Portugal in the 1st half
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 9:39 PM BST
Lithuania now 20
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:39 PM BST
pmsl bear. I spotted it in August
Report Henry VIII May 8, 2018 9:39 PM BST
anyone think the norwegian **** has chance? very bad esc year if so.
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:39 PM BST
That's at least how i remember it Happy
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:40 PM BST
Norway wins, i give up
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:40 PM BST
still not for me H, but have it a small green after laying most of those at the top tonight
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:42 PM BST
Who's posting for you fig?
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:42 PM BST
Given up on Czech and Estonia and not particularly keen on Cyprus and especially Israel
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:44 PM BST

May 8, 2018 -- 9:42PM, bearcub wrote:


Who's posting for you fig?


Just me and Ieva's chakra

Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 9:44 PM BST
Are people overreacting to a Jury vote though. Netta could still smash the Televote...
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:45 PM BST
Not with that trash Roger
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 9:47 PM BST
Most of it is thrash Five leaves left. Laugh
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:48 PM BST
Albania the value imo
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:48 PM BST
Only Hungary is thrash Cool
Report timbuctooth May 8, 2018 9:49 PM BST
Ok, boys; after hearing them for the first time, just one question, if I may? HOW THE PHUCK did that Israeli Sesame Street ever trade at 2.5, please?  Someone posted on here recently that ESC markets are the most efficient of all RTV markets; this made sense, explaining away my abject uselessness at ESC. Tonight, though, I`m most pleased to announce that whoever said that was talking boll0x, the market is, was and will remain as utterly CLUELESS as all other RTV markets!!! Yippee!!! My faith in that belief has been well and truly restored.
Report Cider May 8, 2018 9:55 PM BST
At close tim. The majority of the market hadn't seen a properly staged performance.
Report Henry VIII May 8, 2018 9:56 PM BST
you are right tim. must remember to ignore my personal fav.
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:57 PM BST
I must remember to back them more
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:58 PM BST
Me too fig
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:58 PM BST
we know bear Cool
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 9:58 PM BST
Like this beauty Love
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:58 PM BST
Can't complain though Wink
Report Cider May 8, 2018 9:58 PM BST
lol Fig. Eurovision is way over complicated by people most of the time.
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 9:59 PM BST
I like this better the more i hear it tbf
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:00 PM BST
Get it down to 3 and I'll give you a hug bear
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:01 PM BST
What down to 3 ?
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:01 PM BST
Hems could still have the last laugh with double A
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:01 PM BST
Portugal bear
Report Cider May 8, 2018 10:01 PM BST
Spain looks all right
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:01 PM BST
I'd have to block the fecker
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:02 PM BST
Laugh
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:04 PM BST
I'm so fooking nervous
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:04 PM BST
Cyprus first out so she can draw 2nd half
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:04 PM BST
If Ieva went out now CryCry
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:05 PM BST
Cool
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:06 PM BST
Cool
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:06 PM BST
yesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:06 PM BST
LoveLoveLoveLove
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:07 PM BST
GTFI
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:07 PM BST
yay CoolCool
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:08 PM BST
n1 bear. Never backed it but so pleased
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:08 PM BST
Gtfi
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:08 PM BST
Gtfi
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:08 PM BST
Laugh
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:08 PM BST
Top night Cool
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 10:09 PM BST
Some price he was Eugent Bushpepa.
Shocked Ireland qualified.
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:09 PM BST
Very nice bear. Had both Ireland and Finland but traded out of them
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:09 PM BST
Stupid boy
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:10 PM BST
I see that swiss rubbish that the eurojury put so high failed
Report Cider May 8, 2018 10:11 PM BST
why does anyone pay attention to pre-show polls. load of mince
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:12 PM BST
because tim b never stops going on about them Cry
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:12 PM BST
lol
Report bearcub May 8, 2018 10:12 PM BST
I might go on esctips and thank them for the saara cash
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:14 PM BST
stonking night on the OR so can't complain, but should have been a great one in the semi too

Layed Belgium, Swiss and Bulgaria. Backed Finland & Ireland and should have backed Albania. Traded out of all of them for a small profit
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:15 PM BST

May 8, 2018 -- 10:12PM, bearcub wrote:


I might go on esctips and thank them for the saara cash


Get over there Steve Laugh

Report J.O.TOBIN. May 8, 2018 10:15 PM BST
Well done winners small loss here but had to be against Saara, Ireland a blow as well but traded ok so no complaints.
Report ratneck May 8, 2018 10:18 PM BST
am i missing something arent we supposed to have a top 3 and semi final winner?
Report Cider May 8, 2018 10:20 PM BST
insiders only until post result Saturday
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 10:21 PM BST
Cant give results out till Saturday ratneck.

One bet Albania to qualify. Happy with that!
Report ratneck May 8, 2018 10:24 PM BST
ok i didnt know that. was expecting them to announce it tonight, need lithuaina top 3 and semi final winner,
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 10:31 PM BST
If that Norewgian muck wins I'll give up.
That's how you don't write a song...Cry
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:36 PM BST
Same here Roger. Love Rybak but the some is crap
Report five leaves left May 8, 2018 10:40 PM BST
#song
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 10:42 PM BST
Shocked by the Estonia drift!

I honestly think people are out there betting with the inside numbers for the Semi Final 1 voting.

Am I mad? LOL.....
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 10:43 PM BST
Live feed of press conference feed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaWoFXm6wl8
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 10:45 PM BST
Norway about to become faveCry
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 10:49 PM BST
And Norway now fave.
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 10:50 PM BST
Big drift Cyprus.

Insider betting.....
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 10:52 PM BST
Can someone with experience of Eurovision please explain this move for Norway? Blush
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 10:52 PM BST
maybe its because Rybak won eurovision before.
Report the swede May 8, 2018 10:56 PM BST
odds now suggest that even thou Cyprus did well in jury, not so good in people voting, israel did bad yesterday so traders looking beyond semi 1 for winners and money for norway as favourite in semi 2 and money also for france. feels like it will be great trading during juryvoting on saturday.
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 10:59 PM BST
Great explanation the swede.
But this is surely people with inside info on the votes.
Or not?
Report the swede May 8, 2018 11:21 PM BST
i am sure money for cyprus last night started from insiders. When I heard Christer Björkman on Swedish Tv today calling out that we are closing todays show with a super strong Cyprus just confirmed that.

But I think this year is close, so even insiders cant be too sure when to compare the jury vote/people vote in the different semis and big 5. The different countrys voting in semi and final can also make alot of changes. Saturday winner may even only finish top 3 in a semi.
I am also sure that the fact Rybak has won before (popular and known in many different voting blocks) lower his odds alot.
Tomorrow we know alot more.
My own experience is to be very careful with drifters. If you have been traded around 10-15 and then are over 30 ish its a very bad sign. Czech republic, estonia and bulgary are gone me think. Iam very surprised if Cyprus, Israel and Lithuania is not top 3 and the rest is out.
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:31 PM BST
Austria draw 1st
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:31 PM BST
estonia 1st
Report Kosher Malibu May 8, 2018 11:31 PM BST
the odds movement would actually be consistent with narrow Cyprus win. Insiders would expect Cyprus to win overwhelmingly from that position. However, it only narrowly won (Israel and Lithuania other top 3). Had Israel or Lithuania won the semi, they would be much lower and Cyprus higher.
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:31 PM BST
cyprus 2md
Report the swede May 8, 2018 11:31 PM BST
cyprus 2 half. Christer will get them a nice draw anyway
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:32 PM BST
lithuania 1st
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:32 PM BST
israel 2nd
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:32 PM BST
czech 2nd
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:33 PM BST
bulgaria 2nd cough
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:33 PM BST
albania 1st
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:33 PM BST
finland 2nd
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:33 PM BST
ireland 2nd
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:34 PM BST
cyprus back to fave
Report Roger De Bris May 8, 2018 11:34 PM BST
Excellent appraisals there the swede.
Some interesting results still to be had. Grin
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:35 PM BST
israel will go after break so slot 17.
Report Corbyguy May 8, 2018 11:35 PM BST
will cyprus go 20-26
Report the swede May 9, 2018 12:19 AM BST

May 8, 2018 -- 11:31PM, Kosher Malibu wrote:


the odds movement would actually be consistent with narrow Cyprus win. Insiders would expect Cyprus to win overwhelmingly from that position. However, it only narrowly won (Israel and Lithuania other top 3). Had Israel or Lithuania won the semi, they would be much lower and Cyprus higher.


i think you are spot on.

For prefinal trading I also think the draw is important but not so much for the favorites as for the 5th-15th song. The top qualifiers who get an first half draw tend to get an OK running order anyway. ESC (Christer again) will get them in a good starting order (11 Portugal last year) or 13 Australia (the year before). But running order 2-6 and I would lay them blind for top 6.

Report Henry VIII May 9, 2018 6:15 AM BST

May 8, 2018 -- 11:31PM, Kosher Malibu wrote:


the odds movement would actually be consistent with narrow Cyprus win. Insiders would expect Cyprus to win overwhelmingly from that position. However, it only narrowly won (Israel and Lithuania other top 3). Had Israel or Lithuania won the semi, they would be much lower and Cyprus higher.


Not necessarily narrow surely? They're clear favourites. If they'd won from something like slot 2 they'd be shorter. That is if insiders are making the running, as they're thrashing all metrics.

Report againstthecrowd May 9, 2018 9:37 AM BST
newest post
Report Henry VIII May 9, 2018 1:35 PM BST
I think it may well have been narrow btw, my point was you can't tell that from the odds.
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