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armagnac
01 Feb 18 20:24
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Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 368 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
ann wins after tonight Cool
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Pause Switch to Standard View ##Thursday CBB - they think its all...
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Report armagnac February 1, 2018 10:33 PM GMT
ann is beating shane j on non hacked polls the hacker does not see or get at
Report Jack Bauer '24' February 1, 2018 10:34 PM GMT
There could well be insiders playing who know Tuesday's vote.
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 10:36 PM GMT
i reckon so jack
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 10:37 PM GMT
just tracking a couple of different polls, early numbers as only just gone up and ann is winning
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 10:41 PM GMT
when jess goes, ann will get a little boost being last woman left in
when shane L goes, ann will get a huge boost combined with jess's
not seen one post saying shane j or shane L to win
Report hemsby February 1, 2018 10:50 PM GMT
It would be good to hear an argument from a Shane J backer as to why they think he will win.
Report Tim_B February 1, 2018 10:52 PM GMT
Has anyone got any Telly Mix poll numbers since earlier today?
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 1, 2018 10:52 PM GMT
hems... because Ann is generally unlikeable (unless you have her a your biggest green).
Report zoomraker February 1, 2018 10:53 PM GMT
i'm not a backer but see my earlier post,
this forum has worst case of groupthink ever,
your average cbb voter will view anne as nasty reactionary oppressor

a vote for courtney will be a virtue signalling dopamine hit

trump and brexit voters not watching cbb
Report timbuctooth February 1, 2018 10:58 PM GMT
Courtney wins purely on demographics, with core CBB fans being so aligned with her as a figurehead of `good v evil`, as they see it. Powerful, emotion-stirring stuff, engendering multi-voting.
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:01 PM GMT
interesting zoom but i hit back and say ann is more liked on the two biggest fansite polls, a place like coleen she should be losing heavily.
and shane j is there typical type of perfect winner, so im not convinced at all by your arguement

its my belief you either get ann or you dont, and the vast majority see her as a female meldrew along with his funny quirks
Report Jack Bauer '24' February 1, 2018 11:02 PM GMT
I believe Courtney is more popular with the CBB voting demographic and also has the more motivated fans who will multi-vote. But, I would not be entirely confident so I have Ann a very small green currently.
Report zoomraker February 1, 2018 11:02 PM GMT
what timb says
Report Tim_B February 1, 2018 11:02 PM GMT
It's not group think from me. I often have a different fav from people on here. I was favouring Courtney for the first half of the series but then switched to Ann half way through. For me, it's been pretty clear for the last couple of weeks that they want Ann to win. If Courtney wins, fair enough, it'll be on general popularity rather than stuff that has played out in the edit. I just think Ann is much more likely.
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:03 PM GMT
i think its as marmite in here as it is on fb tbh
thing is, there is no shane j 'fans' in here, they are all ann haters
does that translate to votes ?
not fussed on shane j but hate ann, surely its better to be a fan of shane j..none here, no train
Report zoomraker February 1, 2018 11:05 PM GMT
this is classic male gamblers backing the entertaining one while "the deserving one" wins
it's all about the demos
Report hemsby February 1, 2018 11:06 PM GMT
Not sure any accusations of groupthink or ramping are justified.

Opinion seems to be pretty split on here 50/50 as to who wins.

Personally I’ve always felt that Ann was being underestimated by the market,but had fully intended to take my profit towards the end of the series.I can’t justify doing that at the current prices however,so I’m prepared to gamble that my opinion is correct and the market is wrong.
Report Tim_B February 1, 2018 11:07 PM GMT
The demos are old vs young. Older voters have been known to turn out more than younger voters. Unless you think Courtney is a Scotty T or Charlotte, which I don't.
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:07 PM GMT
i agree with tim b
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 1, 2018 11:07 PM GMT
Prods have done a great job.
Giving Ann every opportunity to look human and be the show.
Every vote that Ann gets is down to the edit.

Anything can happen but I feel that the hard core CBB voter will note that:

Ann made others moderate thier behaviour.
Ann made selfish demands.
Ann opted out of tasks that didn't suit her.

Courtney gave all she had to entertain.
Report zoomraker February 1, 2018 11:08 PM GMT
i'm not certain enough about anything to take a big position
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:10 PM GMT
james jordan will be good value
Report Jack Bauer '24' February 1, 2018 11:10 PM GMT
I don't believe the majority of older voters who voted for Coleen last year are necessarily going to favour Ann. Coleen and Ann would be on opposite sides of the political spectrum.
Report hemsby February 1, 2018 11:14 PM GMT
Do you think political preference plays a part in voters intentions for CBB Jack ?
Report VardonVoo. February 1, 2018 11:14 PM GMT

Feb 1, 2018 -- 5:03PM, armagnac wrote:


i think its as marmite in here as it is on fb tbhthing is, there is no shane j 'fans' in here, they are all ann hatersdoes that translate to votes ?not fussed on shane j but hate ann, surely its better to be a fan of shane j..none here, no train


I'm a fan of Courtney - I find "her" fascinating. I did hate Ann but have found her amusing lately, helped by the tasks,but I still see Courtney as the more deserving winner.

There is a definite touch of "groupthink" on here that seems to be affecting an entire army Wink

Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 1, 2018 11:17 PM GMT
Courtney/Shane J has been entertaining.
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:17 PM GMT
the groupthink is more for shane j than ann Plain
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:17 PM GMT
all the lice have come to feed at once
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:18 PM GMT
winners poll is up folks, feel free to use it
Report Tim_B February 1, 2018 11:19 PM GMT
VV so you admit that Ann has changed public perceptions? Because that's often a big motivator for someone to vote for their winner.
Report Jack Bauer '24' February 1, 2018 11:20 PM GMT
I believe so in certain circumstances. This vote is like a referendum for some viewers on whether you support progressive values or whether you are stuck in the past like Ann.
Report timbuctooth February 1, 2018 11:21 PM GMT
In response to hemsby, I put forward my fears of why Courtney wins. Let the record also state, though, that I think the prices are wrong, so Courtney is an ever-increasing max red (laid more down to 1.5 tonight), the rest of them some degree of jackpot. Could take a few points all-green, but bottling it when the prices are wrong is not the way forward. We`re all long-term winners on here, which we do by finding the value; Courtney represents no value, even if she`s the most likely winner, so I`ll continue laying, and if I lose , well, there`s always DOI, ESC, BGT coming up soon!
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:21 PM GMT
Final 24 Hours: Who do you WANT to Win? 79 votes
Ann Widdecombe
44%
35 votes
Courtney Act
35%
28 votes
Jess Impiazzi
7%
6 votes
Shayne Lynch
11%
9 votes
Wayne Sleep
1%
1 vote
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:23 PM GMT
i believe its more a vote for pc going to far
Report hemsby February 1, 2018 11:23 PM GMT
Ah,I misunderstood you.I thought you meant political allegiance between parties ie Labour / Tory.

I’d certainly agree with you on that point,some viewers will feel they want to support Shane J because it’s the right thing to do.
Report Tim_B February 1, 2018 11:25 PM GMT
Yes Jack, in a way. And Leave won the Brexit vote, lest we forget. CBB viewers have strong similarities with much of the Brexit demographic imo - old, uneducated, northern, somewhat conservative and from low socio-economic groups. And I would see that as strongly favouring Ann over Courtney. if younger viewers turn up to vote - fair enough - but it's 50p + network charges, which isn't really affordable for many young people.
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:28 PM GMT
small numbers but better than nothing


View Poll Results: Ann as a winner
The best ever        7    18.92%
One of the best        13    35.14%
Average        8    21.62%
One of the worst        7    18.92%
The worst ever        2    5.41%
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:29 PM GMT
View Poll Results: Shane J as a winner
The best ever        3    7.69%
One of the best        16    41.03%
Average        10    25.64%
One of the worst        6    15.38%
The worst ever        4    10.26%
Voters: 39. You may not vote on this poll
Report hemsby February 1, 2018 11:29 PM GMT
In reply to Tim B’s earlier request ....

TM votes since 11.49am

189 Shane J
163 Ann
52 Shane L
23 Jess
   9 Wayne
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:30 PM GMT
the polls i just posted all went up straight after tonights edit and have not been hacked, ann is winning in a place she should not be verses someone like shane j
Report Tim_B February 1, 2018 11:31 PM GMT
Thanks hemsby.
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:31 PM GMT
ann will trounce shane j in the h2h
Report mach February 1, 2018 11:32 PM GMT
I don't think there was much virtue signaling influencing the voting when Helen or Jim Davidson won.
Report armagnac February 1, 2018 11:36 PM GMT
katie hopkins only lost to a british female icon
Report VardonVoo. February 1, 2018 11:39 PM GMT
When India theatrically boasted "I...AM....A REAL..WOMAN!" she forgot to put the word "ugly" after the word "real".
Report VardonVoo. February 1, 2018 11:59 PM GMT
I won't be at all surprised if Ann's odds head back below 3.0 again overnight. I'm sure the vote is going to be a lot closer than either side's non-gambling supporters expect.
Report Henry VIII February 2, 2018 12:21 AM GMT
I don't know about the odds but I think the vote will be much more hugely in favour of Courtney than people expect.
Report Tim_B February 2, 2018 12:28 AM GMT
I think Ann is probably ahead, especially after they got rid of Amanda on Tuesday. They could've chosen to keep her, if they wanted, and had six in the final like usual. I think it's possible that Courtney is close to Ann, but not ahead imo.
Report timbuctooth February 2, 2018 2:39 AM GMT
DS

Final 24 Hours: Who do you WANT to Win? 151 votes

Ann Widdicombe 41% 63 votes
Courtney Act 41% 63 votes
Shayne Lynch 7% 11 votes
Jess Impiazzi 5% 8 votes
Wayne Sleep 3% 5 votes

Another piece of evidence telling us the prices are wrong.
Report LuckyAz February 2, 2018 3:20 AM GMT
I don't normally post but Army you asked for the view of someone who thinks Courtney will win, I refer to Shane J as Courtney as that will be who walks out the house the winner, a man that seems alot more happier when acting as a woman which ticks the Year Of The Woman box.

It's been obvious to most on here a Courtney VS Ann H2H final has been engineered by the producers all series to get the classic panto Good VS Evil final two.

With Ann's kind edit as revealed very early on by Maggie on BOTS the producers will have the H2H they want & gained as much controversial publicity for the show as possible in a desperate attempt to increase their all time low viewing figures.

We all know a vote to win is very different from a vote to save & looking at the demographic of the CBB audience & on SM I can see Courtney's supporters being far more motivated to multi vote to ensure Ann doesn't win, in fact I would go so far as to say I can see Ann being beaten in a H2H with any of the other house mates so strong is the anti Ann sentiment  out there.

Sorry Army, I enjoyed the ride on the Widdy Winnebago & you're a great driver but I've jumped off early as she's just too marmite for most & to me it's obvious the producers have been deramping her all week with close ups of her eyes rolling & pulling disapproving faces.

Since Mondays BOTS show to me it has been obvious they have been pushing Courtney starting with Judi James's speech about his importance due to his 'bigger message' to the evening before the final when there is a drag queen on the panel & half of them wanted Courtney to win which will give the producers the 'feel good' win they are after to promote Year Of The Woman & the modern day fight of equality for all regardless of sex or sexual preference.

Before I get accussed of ramping which is why I don't normally post I would love Jess to win due to my comedy green on her...but I know it's going to be Courtney by a land slide as does the market.
Report Jack Bauer '24' February 2, 2018 3:30 AM GMT
Well said, you should post more.
Report Angela Rebecchi February 2, 2018 3:35 AM GMT
Yeah, top post LuckyAz.
Report timbuctooth February 2, 2018 3:50 AM GMT
New markets up
Report Henry VIII February 2, 2018 8:06 AM GMT
Gotta agree with LuckyAz except I don’t think they deramped Ann. She did it herself. They’ve got to show her eye rolling etc. Good TV.

Also whoever wins is feel good because they would represent the audience. What I mean is to stay objective we shouldn’t project our own values onto the audience. Whether you believe Courtney represents something new and progressive or believe Camilia Paglia’s musings that such celebration historically comes at times of decline, who would the majority of a 2018 BB audience support? IMO Courtney.

Then you have the equally important vote motivating fact that psychologically Courtney is a positive person contrasting with Ann who is a negative person.

And physically Courtney is an attractive person (in either guise) and Ann is ugly.
Report hemsby February 2, 2018 8:21 AM GMT
*hemsby

Sad
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 8:31 AM GMT
great post LuckyAz, one small detail missed..its hemsby's train Grin
thanks again, always good to have opposing views..especially with my brain washing skills
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 8:33 AM GMT
im still in the camp ann has far more support but shane's is far more likely to multi-vote
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 8:35 AM GMT
im also not fazed by the support of shane j by some of this forums finest, but imo hems and tim b are without doubt the best punters that post here...which boosts my confidence to extreme levels

bring it on b1tches Love
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 8:40 AM GMT
and so much for group think, as people are coming out of the woodwork from all corners of our universe, i'd say ann's supporters are the minority on here now, as proven with the current final day poll.
which i might add is very, very rarely wrong so it seems huey, louie and dewey (aka me, hems and tim b) are right up against it
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 2, 2018 8:45 AM GMT
Nicely summed up LuckyAz. I would also like Jess to have been in with a chance. She has been a star.
However, it's Courtney that fits the profile of being the anti-Ann.

army, I admire your conviction. Crazy
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 8:50 AM GMT
the fansite polls started last night still have ann ahead

can anyone of shane j's supporters explain this, coz in the past shane j would of been given god like status on these forums...especially the tibb forum and been streets and streets ahead.
with ann nowhere to be seen

is nobody taking the superfans into consideration ??
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 2, 2018 8:55 AM GMT
It's down to the edits and the fansites are full of sheep. (Tiffiney Pollard, really? Laugh).

I have faith that the hard core voters will see past the edit and good will prevail.
Report Henry VIII February 2, 2018 8:58 AM GMT
Re fan sites fwiw, BB Spy and TIBB, who both still get decent numbers of voters, have Courtney massively ahead and DS Forum the numbers were too tiny to be significant
Report hemsby February 2, 2018 8:58 AM GMT
Groupthink accusations are quite derogatory really.

As army says,himself Tim B and myself think Ann win.We’ve all been pro Ann since the very early days when she was around 25 on betfair so it’s not unreasonable to assume we all have very decent books given current prices.

Are we saying Ann wins in order to increase our book value by hoping the market is impressed with our opinions or are we being truthful ? I’ve always thought that anyone who feels they can post their opinion on a mature RTV market and think they can move the price is pretty deluded.

Can’t speak for the other 2 amigos but my opinion is born out of interpretation of data and gut instinct.We may ultimately be proved wrong tonight or we may be correct,but it’s certainly not groupthink and not ramping,just genuine opinion.

Good luck everyone however you play it tonight.Must say the chat on the forum over the last few days has been excellent and a small reminder of how things used to be.Hopefully it’s a good sign that the forum is in recovery after going through a quite period.I’d also urge anyone who lurks to get involved....as can be seen by the conversations over the last few days there is usually plenty of disagreement but almost always things are nice and civil and every punter benefits from listening to viewpoints from the opposite points of view.
Report Henry VIII February 2, 2018 8:59 AM GMT
* when I looked yesterday eve. If they've restarted this am surely too low numbers yet to consider.
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 8:59 AM GMT
Henry VIII    02 Feb 18 08:58 
Re fan sites fwiw, BB Spy and TIBB, who both still get decent numbers of voters, have Courtney massively ahead and DS Forum the numbers were too tiny to be significant



those polls are hacked H, the ones started last night are not
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:04 AM GMT
agree with hems, been an ann lover from day 1 which you will see i posted on day 2 i think.
also like to point out, my posts are always 100% fact based usually with proof or data.
ann has given me the most lol's moments since busey's series.

posting 200 times a day does not make you a ramper, maybe an over excited super fan Wink
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:06 AM GMT
as with my latest thread, it comes with hard evidence shane j has a mountain still to climb imo
regardless of the message he's spouting, he's gone about it, in completely the wrong way and the TGBP public dont like to be told how to think !!!
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 2, 2018 9:08 AM GMT
What's with the sudden ramping denials? I can't find any accusations of ramping in recent posts.
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:09 AM GMT
cant be arsed hunting it down, someone mentioned yesterday or day before.
thats bear's job coz he loves me so Love
Report hemsby February 2, 2018 9:09 AM GMT
Ramping accusations were last night.
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 2, 2018 9:12 AM GMT
OK Blush. I guess there is a fine line between passion and ramping, but I feel we should all give benefit of the doubt and agree that... everyone
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 2, 2018 9:13 AM GMT
...everyone is ramping, all the time.
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:13 AM GMT
i stand by ann is the best bit of value so far this year in any market !!
one negative, the same one as shane j 50/50 marmite but he has a long list of other negatives to overcome
ann's list of positives goes on and on and on
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:15 AM GMT
tim b pointing those out yesterday
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:24 AM GMT
ann has 3 sources of casual support tonight, shane j has none

1) regional support from devon
2) political support from a lifetime in politics, especially from old constituents 
3) strictly fans
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:27 AM GMT
8 million strictly fans to be precise on average, not sure what the rating were in 2010
0.5% is 40,000 votes
even 10% of that is still 4,000 votes..she'll get some thrown her way
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:32 AM GMT
people saying shane j has hardline support, i also think ann will have some hardline support from her views on fox hunting and the fact she is a msasive animal lover.

She is a committed animal lover and one of the few Conservative MPs to have consistently voted for the ban on fox hunting.[16] Widdecombe was among more than 20 high-profile people who signed a letter to Members of Parliament in 2015 to oppose David Cameron's plan to amend the Hunting Act 2004.
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:44 AM GMT
ann's views are just as strong as shane j's, if not stronger..so who's to say ann's supporters wont be motivated or multi-voters

if this was vote was to the whole of britain like a reffy, i dont doubt for one second ann would win

it just so happens only around 2% of the nation watch big brother
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 9:47 AM GMT
difference is, ann has not preached her views non-stop for 4 weeks unlike some
Report bearcub February 2, 2018 9:52 AM GMT
I'll be glad when it's over
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 10:03 AM GMT
a vote for ann is a vote against andrew and a vote against the pc brigade
we've already seen how powerful this type of vote is with brexit and trump

girls booted of the darts and the grid this week, no better time than right now for this final and to give these girls a boost by voting for ann
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 10:05 AM GMT
if the girls has any sense they'd be joining forces and coming up with a campaign and getting behind her, coz ann is still a very powerful voice and if she wins, it sticks one finger up to the pc world which has gone bonkers
Report Tim_B February 2, 2018 10:20 AM GMT
Ann has been extremely popular on Facebook the last three days. Nice to see them post a picture of Ann's best facial expressions this morning.
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 11:35 AM GMT
we've had one semi-reasonable argument in favour of shane j winning, which all the clowns are getting behind and 101 good arguments for ann winning
i do love this place Laugh
Report J.O.TOBIN. February 2, 2018 11:36 AM GMT
ann has 3 sources of casual support tonight, shane j has none

1) regional support from devon
2) political support from a lifetime in politics, especially from old constituents 
3) strictly fans

1) regional support from Devon LaughLaughLaugh regional support from feckin Devon. If the Devon Masssiv is behind her its all over.
Report J.O.TOBIN. February 2, 2018 11:37 AM GMT
Still Love you army.
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 11:38 AM GMT
hey dont knock it, my next door neighbours are huge animal lovers and there is at least 3 houses on dartmoor
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 11:39 AM GMT
CoolLove
Report hemsby February 2, 2018 11:57 AM GMT
Ann was MP for Maidstone and the Weald so obvious all the Kent massive are behind her.

Kent is the garden of England so she has the enormous horticultural vote behind her too Cool
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 11:57 AM GMT
Laugh
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 12:01 PM GMT
only 170,000 live in maidstone
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 2, 2018 12:02 PM GMT
it's a rotten borough.
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 12:08 PM GMT
trying to figure out where shane j lives and what home town support he has Confused
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed February 2, 2018 12:12 PM GMT
It's won in the house, not at the home town. Wink
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 12:12 PM GMT
go back 300 years and he'd probably of got plenty of support from Newgate prison
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 12:14 PM GMT
its won and lost in the house, which is why he wont be winning
Report mach February 2, 2018 12:31 PM GMT
All of Llandewi Breffi, Wales will be voting for Shane J/Courtney
Report armagnac February 2, 2018 12:36 PM GMT
Grin
Report Finnished February 2, 2018 12:48 PM GMT
Ann has the getting-pissed-in-your-pajamas vote. Could be massive.
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