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armagnac
29 Jan 18 20:46
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Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 6,521 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
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Pause Switch to Standard View ##Mondays CBB - Queen Ann gets wet##
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Report Cider January 29, 2018 10:05 PM GMT
i'm watching that thinking ann's journey is complete. ironically it's ann that needed acceptance, not the gays/tvs
Report timbuctooth January 29, 2018 10:08 PM GMT
Cider 29 Jan 18 21:57 
i keep thinking there's a chance they are both stuffed. yep, bonkers



There`s a simple argument to be made for all the others;

Shane, Boyzone
Malika SM Kardashians
Amanda/Wayne National treasures
Jess/Ashley, both lovely girls, thoroughly defying expectations, but mainly Jess

As usual for me, the further away you look from favs, the bigger my green, so not given up hope yet. If we ignore polls and conflicting SM, any one of them could still win. (Or at least trade much shorter, for us traders)
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:10 PM GMT
think a few on here to take the acceptance ann is going to win
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:10 PM GMT
need
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:11 PM GMT
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX0ws6y7p5g
Report Cider January 29, 2018 10:12 PM GMT
Malika or Ashley won't survive past tomorrow night tho tim! Or at least it's a huge long shot.

ann is green for me army. in fact right now she's a pretty good result
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:13 PM GMT
dont do a mach then
Report Cider January 29, 2018 10:15 PM GMT
I'm very conservative (small c) on cbb these days
Report VardonVoo. January 29, 2018 10:16 PM GMT
How conservative?
Report Spinoza's Ethic January 29, 2018 10:17 PM GMT
My one worry is that Ann might go the whole hog and get her ar$e waxed. Not sure how that might affect her chances.
Report Cider January 29, 2018 10:17 PM GMT
I don't carry meaningful reds on potential winners
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:17 PM GMT
Laugh
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:18 PM GMT
shane j up against group horses this time around
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed January 29, 2018 10:18 PM GMT
.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rccJRR9qrgY
Report timbuctooth January 29, 2018 10:19 PM GMT
You`re probably right, Cider, but we usually get one or two shocks...

For the record, army, I too currently have Ann green; got good equity, could go all-green for five or six points, but there`s no excitement in that, so Courtney can stay max red, at least for another day or two, but more likely til the end
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:20 PM GMT
telly mix poll steadily going up and up and up Plain
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:22 PM GMT
ok tim, nice to see you stick by your morals
Report timbuctooth January 29, 2018 10:23 PM GMT
Gotta love the slowness of our market, as it finally realises Jess is in the last five
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:23 PM GMT
hackers must of been refreshing every second for that poll to appear
Report VardonVoo. January 29, 2018 10:29 PM GMT
The DS poll is very weird - Courtney is allegedly 44% to win, Ann 15% and Lynch 9%. about 3,000 votes were added since yesterday and only Lynch has changed (from 8%). Vote count was 30,808 yesterday now 33,610.
Report Tim_B January 29, 2018 10:30 PM GMT
Is no one going to ask Betfair for an eviction market?
Report bearcub January 29, 2018 10:30 PM GMT
It's already up
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:31 PM GMT
lol
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 10:31 PM GMT
i'd get back on the beer tim b, fecking useless without it
Report VardonVoo. January 29, 2018 10:32 PM GMT
That DS poll is titled "Who Will Win?" but right above it in the text it asks "Who do you want to win?"
Report Tim_B January 29, 2018 10:36 PM GMT
lol
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:14 PM GMT
dapper is so far up andrews arse, he'll come out of his mouth by the end of bots
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed January 29, 2018 11:21 PM GMT
Poor Dapper just can't get it right. He flips to getting behind Shane J for BOTS, just as the BOTS audience turn against Shane J. Laugh
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:23 PM GMT
hes faker than fake, just trying to say what he thinks they want to hear.
only one worth listening to is jonny
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:25 PM GMT
amanda out and on the bots panel for the a couple of days will give ann a massive boost
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:28 PM GMT
potato peelers LaughLaughLaugh
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed January 29, 2018 11:30 PM GMT
Potatoes are a big deal on the Emerald Isle. I think they use them to build houses and stuff.
Report Tim_B January 29, 2018 11:30 PM GMT
Didn't think about the BOTS panel, but that's a good point.
Report timbuctooth January 29, 2018 11:36 PM GMT
Rylan orgasmic that he has someone pro-Courtney to bash Ann with.
Report mach January 29, 2018 11:39 PM GMT
Andrew and Dapper are a pair of annoying tw@ts
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:43 PM GMT
andrew is such a koont
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:43 PM GMT
andrew is such a koont
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:43 PM GMT
andrew is such a koont
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:44 PM GMT
marsden is normally bang on with his views Cool
Report hemsby January 29, 2018 11:45 PM GMT
That was a statement that deserved being repeated 3 times Grin

He’s doing Shane J no favours tonight ironically.
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:47 PM GMT
Laugh yeah i thought so to hems but didn't want to post again to say that Blush
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:50 PM GMT
rylan was a massive ann fan all series and now hes suddenly all shane j
i have a feeling hes been got at by the LGBT mafia Devil
Report hemsby January 29, 2018 11:53 PM GMT
First episode of BOTS where it seems the crowd are less than 50% in favour of Shane J.

When you think it’s basically the same people night after night,that has to mean people have changed their mind over him in the last few days.
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:55 PM GMT
yup
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 29, 2018 11:56 PM GMT
Ann has served her purpose, now I suspect they will be getting behind Shane/Courtney. Judi James saying there is still a battle to be won was quite telling.
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed January 29, 2018 11:56 PM GMT
Did I just hear that? Ann is concerned about Courtney showing cleavage?
Report VardonVoo. January 29, 2018 11:56 PM GMT
Dapper is so inarticulate under pressure.
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:56 PM GMT
massive pro ann crowd
Report armagnac January 29, 2018 11:59 PM GMT
and shane j lol
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed January 30, 2018 12:09 AM GMT
.
https://twitter.com/Rylan/status/958127820416438272
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 3:07 AM GMT
How much more interesting would this eviction have been if Ash and Shane Lynch weren't in it?
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 8:22 AM GMT
for hemsby, heard you mention this yesterday..some proof his fans are going off him now

.
https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2267208/hand-brake-turn-opinions-on-housemates
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 8:30 AM GMT
i also see the hacker has made the telly mix poll look similar to the tibb poll Laugh
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 8:36 AM GMT
apparently the x housemates are going back to stir things up with the final 5, after seeing andrew last night this can only help ann...cant see him holding back and shane j will be all over him.
Report J.O.TOBIN. January 30, 2018 12:05 PM GMT
Yes Andrew being in your camp (if you pardon my expression) a big downer annoying as hell on BOTs last night and likely the same in the house.
The fact that Andrew came 4th in the eviction vote below Dapper and Johnny is a negative for Shane Js chances, surely Shane supporters will have thrown a vote Andrews way to keep his best mate in.
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 12:51 PM GMT

Jan 30, 2018 -- 8:30AM, armagnac wrote:


i also see the hacker has made the telly mix poll look similar to the tibb poll


Two polls converge to a consensus and your conclusion is that they are hacked? Can you point to any polls with vastly different profiles that might help support this theory?

Report hemsby January 30, 2018 1:12 PM GMT
The Tellymix poll got hacked some time after 1am this morning.

At that stage the numbers were ...

360 Shane J
281 Ann
95 Shane L
77 Malika
71 Amanda
17 Ashley

Since then of 760 votes cast,442 went to Shane J (58%)
Prior to the hack Shane was getting (39%)
Report bearcub January 30, 2018 1:50 PM GMT
Stop ruining all my hard work ;-(
Report lookingon January 30, 2018 2:52 PM GMT
J.O.TOBIN

The fact that Andrew came 4th in the eviction vote below Dapper and Johnny is a negative for Shane Js chances, surely Shane supporters will have thrown a vote Andrews way to keep his best mate in.

Excellent point
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 3:50 PM GMT
I just tried deleting my cookies and re-voting on that TellyMix poll and it didn't work, nor using Incognito. I imagine they log your IP address when you vote. I'm inclined to be suspicious of hacking being behind the numbers as they are not out of line with expectations. If Ashley suddenly appeared as third most popular overnight THEN  I'd be a bit doubtful.

That's not to say that some polls may be more or less representative of the overall voting demographic than others, but "hacking" requires a concerted effort to distort the picture, presumably for financial gain, and making the likely winner seem slightly more popular than he already is would not be as big a coup as getting a 100s-to-1 outsider into single figures, IMHO.  But if anyone has evidence or knows an easy method that one hacker might use, yet who would not be at the whims of other competing hackers with different agenda, then please explain.

I also don't buy the "people piling on money to artificially push the odds down" theory. I'm sure many of us on here have made the past mistake of doing that on illiquid outsiders for a few quid and immediately found that the market soon reverted and left us locked into a position we then couldn't exit from without pushing the market even further against ourselves. How much harder to manipulate a heavily-traded favourite?

Another thing I'm not convinced of is that liking one housemate will necessarily cause people to vote in favour of a related housemate that they may not like so much. I'm sure many of Shane Js fans saw his shenanigans with Andrew as detrimental to his chances so would not have supported Andrew at all. However, it's probably reasonable to say that the negative thing about Andrew being unpopular is that people on the fence may be dismissive of his supportive comments on BOTS.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 3:55 PM GMT
The Tellymix poll is hacked every series. It is easily done if you know how and anyone can do it so you can't really trust any of the figures. Just ignore it and trust your own judgment would be my advice.
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 3:58 PM GMT
Laugh thanks JOT Love
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 4:00 PM GMT
The fact that Andrew came 4th in the eviction vote below Dapper and Johnny is a negative for Shane Js chances, surely Shane supporters will have thrown a vote Andrews way to keep his best mate in.

Excellent point


i'd go one step further and say since then, shane j has lost some support meaning his so called voting power is not as strong as it was then either.
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:05 PM GMT

Jan 30, 2018 -- 3:55PM, Jack Bauer '24' wrote:


The Tellymix poll is hacked every series. It is easily done if you know how and anyone can do it so you can't really trust any of the figures. Just ignore it and trust your own judgment would be my advice.


OK, let's test that - Ashley has 28 votes currently.  It shouldn't be too hard for someone on here to hack the poll and add 12 more votes in the next hour. Anyone up for that?

Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 4:06 PM GMT
OK
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 4:13 PM GMT
I'll do it to the who's your favourite poll.
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:15 PM GMT
Yes that one - Only seen one more vote added a few minutes ago. Was that yours?
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:16 PM GMT
Two more now.
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:18 PM GMT
Now up to 35!
Report bearcub January 30, 2018 4:30 PM GMT
My Malika green is worthless :-(
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:31 PM GMT
48 votes now - Quick! Get aboard Ashley!
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 4:31 PM GMT
its sad to think the poor mugs out there are getting fleeced by that poll Sad
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 4:32 PM GMT
VV Laugh
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed January 30, 2018 4:33 PM GMT
Well Done Detective VV. You have outed the hacker. Cool
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 4:35 PM GMT
Plain im not having jack take the credit, the hacker is me



Whoops
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 4:36 PM GMT
im really 1,000,000 green on shane j, cant lay enough
Report lookingon January 30, 2018 4:37 PM GMT
Laugh
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed January 30, 2018 4:37 PM GMT
lol, and I thought it was bear pushing Malika up to 3rd favourite.
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:40 PM GMT
There's a hit there, army:-

My names armagnac
and I'm big green Courtney Act
I just can't lay enough..
I just can't lay enough...
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 4:41 PM GMT
I have doubled her figures. I suspect there are many people doing it so all the numbers are bollocks. Best to ignore it totally and certainly don't go taking any big positions based on that or any other poll.
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 4:41 PM GMT
lol
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 4:42 PM GMT
good work jack, just shows how easy it is
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:42 PM GMT
Jack were you beavering away manually or was it automated?
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 4:44 PM GMT
Manually but it would be easy to automate.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 4:48 PM GMT
Tellymix used to be a good poll about 5 years ago when there were only about 300 votes, but then the site became very popular and started getting hacked.
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:50 PM GMT
That took about half-an-hour for thirty votes. That bigger poll on DS has 34,500 votes so far and fairly steady results. If someone was currently running a vote-bot you'd expect to see the percentages change, so it looks like those votes trickling in are consistent. But I guess that doesn't rue out an earlier front-loading hack.
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 4:52 PM GMT
who's to say its an individual and not a group of hackers working together ?
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 4:53 PM GMT
I was betting on the horses at the same time by the way.
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 4:54 PM GMT
So how would you secure an online poll?
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 4:59 PM GMT
It can be done, some bookies have software to prevent this type of thing but Tellymix probably couldn't care less as it makes no difference to them.
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 5:03 PM GMT
they don even stop non-uk votes so its all bollocks as a reference coz only british people can vote, dunno why they bother putting it up tbh
only people that benefit is the hackers coz they know how many they have added, leaving us lot guessing
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 30, 2018 5:07 PM GMT
Even the hackers are guessing because they can't be sure how many other hackers there are and which votes are genuine and which are not.
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 5:13 PM GMT
yep to some extent
Report armagnac January 30, 2018 5:15 PM GMT
seen a good thread title on tibb

'a win for shane j = a win for andrew'

when they go back in it will just remind everyone what a tw't andrew is, shane j got dented when him and andrew were hanging off each other...does him no favours at all
Report Tim_B January 30, 2018 6:43 PM GMT
I've backed Amanda for eviction.
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 6:55 PM GMT
You expecting her, Ash and Malika to go, Tim?
Report Tim_B January 30, 2018 6:56 PM GMT
Yes. Probably should've posted in the eviction thread though. Oops.
Report timbuctooth January 30, 2018 7:19 PM GMT
Surely Jack`s just confirmed it`s `Polls? Schmoles!` Most pleasing to have official confirmation that EVERY SINGLE BIT of polls/SM analysis is BOLL0X!!! Just use your own eyes, FFS!
Report VardonVoo. January 30, 2018 9:04 PM GMT
"Probably schmobably", tim!
Report VardonVoo. January 31, 2018 2:15 PM GMT
Bez won at 14-1 vs an assumed nailed-on Kenzie, so maybe Wayne will be the surprise winner this time (yeah, right!). I'd love  it if Jess won though.

I think the public have a choice of two options for "joke" winners in 'The Year of the Woman' - a show-girl that is actually a man-in-drag versus a grumpy old bag who appears to be a bit of a misogynist and certainly not on any cause to promote women's rights. Rather ironic, really.

I sometimes wonder/worry if the final-week voters just come along and vote for who they casually like, having not really bothered to watch much of the previous few weeks interactions. A bit like pre-trading a Test match on weather news days before it starts only to have things go utterly haywire within the first few minutes of going in-play, especially if runs flow quickly or wickets tumble.
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