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armagnac
21 Jan 18 21:02
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Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 50,805 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
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Report bearcub January 21, 2018 9:05 PM GMT
lo
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:07 PM GMT
andrew - what a koont
Report bearcub January 21, 2018 9:09 PM GMT
My 1 desire this series is that Johnny beats Andrew
Report timbuctooth January 21, 2018 9:09 PM GMT
`I don`t bone pick afterwards` says Ann. What does Maggie think of that?
Report Cider January 21, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
Not much debate over Shane L !
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:20 PM GMT
shame on the men if they've put up both old dears
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:23 PM GMT
ann looking foooked here
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:26 PM GMT
ffs
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:26 PM GMT
only good thing i can say is, amanda wants to go home
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:28 PM GMT
ageist b'stards
Report Cider January 21, 2018 9:29 PM GMT
Producers making it obvious that Shane J was bottling the discussions (ie blatant game playing)
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:30 PM GMT
amanda happy to be up is massive plus for ann backers
Report Cider January 21, 2018 9:32 PM GMT
What else would you expect army? Ann was 1.01 in that format, Amanda was a pretty easy second pick.
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:33 PM GMT
someone else
Report Cider January 21, 2018 9:35 PM GMT
Human nature you prefer the company of people that are most similar to yourself.
Report VardonVoo. January 21, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
They said they have to do two days of tasks so when does the eviction actually take place? During a live show?
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
best result for ann anyhow, she has a chance now if men pick..against the younger women she would of been toast.
amanda will also beg the men to pick her by the looks of it
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:37 PM GMT
tonight VV
Report bearcub January 21, 2018 9:38 PM GMT
It's already happened
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:39 PM GMT
mens arms are heavier Wink
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:41 PM GMT
aussie cheat on his knee's there
Report bearcub January 21, 2018 9:43 PM GMT
Well done girlsCool
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:45 PM GMT
lots of year of the women talk, will be a massive driving for when VTW starts
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:45 PM GMT
force
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:45 PM GMT
and again year of the women Wink
Report VardonVoo. January 21, 2018 9:48 PM GMT
Market integrity surprisingly intact if the eviction has already happened.
Report Cider January 21, 2018 9:54 PM GMT
Even if Ann survives this, I feel her chances are evaporating. She's just not a sympathetic character like Busey and the likely finalists are not the people that she's been clashing with.
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:56 PM GMT
and the last b1tch that won was i suppose
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 9:58 PM GMT
most unsympathetic winner ever
Report Cider January 21, 2018 9:59 PM GMT
The people who voted for sarah related to her. I'm not saying you have to be sympathetic to win but there has ti be a vote driver. Ann needs the 'house' to be against her, and to be still there obs!
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 10:00 PM GMT
only amanda likes ann and she wants out lol
Report bearcub January 21, 2018 10:00 PM GMT
Lots of Daniel tonight
Report VardonVoo. January 21, 2018 10:01 PM GMT
Jess came across well as a spunky little fighter in that task. I can see a possible narrative there for the prods to push.
Report Cider January 21, 2018 10:07 PM GMT
I feel like that story has largely passed now army, but we'll see.

Jess is delightful but is a hard sell to the audience to win votes. She's nearly 30, acting so childlike at times isn't going to be endearing to the typical voter.
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
talking like a 2 year old is sickly
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 10:09 PM GMT
daft bint wants the haribo gig
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 10:10 PM GMT
cider

ann's middle name is 'drama'
never far away from it
Report Cider January 21, 2018 10:14 PM GMT
Her convo with Ashley was dreadful. Took no liability for the incident whatsoever, and told Ashley she needs to resolve to change her own behaviour! As I said she's not sympathetic. There's likely to be a price drop if she survives, but only temporary.
Report armagnac January 21, 2018 10:20 PM GMT
one semi bad moment from countless quality moments, most deserving by a million miles at this stage
for her to be leading on polls and liked on sm is a miracle in itself, especially from a political background
her core support will be just like coleen, well away from sm
her scores on that fb meme post is insane
Report J.O.TOBIN. January 21, 2018 10:21 PM GMT
Watching on plus 1 Andrew a grade A kernt
Report J.O.TOBIN. January 21, 2018 10:32 PM GMT
Shane J is treading water looked awful in the task, Barnsey a gent.
Report mach January 21, 2018 11:33 PM GMT
Ann had a horrid show imo, the pith one liners and old fashioned morality are fading to unpleasant opinions and delusional interactions with other housemates.
Report VardonVoo. January 21, 2018 11:47 PM GMT
I wonder when the market will signal who is out. Hard to believe it won't have leaked by lunchtime if someone really is already out.
Report Tim_B January 22, 2018 12:17 AM GMT
Anyone want to confess to backing Shane L at the recent prices? The money for him is starting to look a bit suspicious, but then if Ann has really gone you'd expect her to drift like a barge.
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 3:54 PM GMT
Tense times for those of us with extreme positions; all about whether Ann stays, so which way to jump? Changed my mind numerous times, left bets up, taken them down a couple of times, but have finally plumped for `She stays! Get this right, series set up very nicely; wrong, and it`s an awful long way back...
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 6:29 PM GMT
Mathematically, Ann`s got a 25% chance of going. BUT, the girls are one up, probably best-of-three game that is likely to be r1gged in their favour. So, Ann`s real chance of going is nearer maybe 10%. If she stays, her price would be likely to be about half what it is now, leaving backers with a 10% chance of doing their dough, 90% chance of doubling it. Win or lose, that`s a great value call, I`m going for it, even though she looks suspiciously driffy. No matter, just increases the value!
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 6:37 PM GMT
Getting a bit excited, enjoying the fun of this, forgot to throw in the fact that, even if the girls lost, Amanda`s likely to be pretending she wants to leave, an offer the boys might find too easy to reject. Even better value, off to top up!
Report luckyman January 22, 2018 6:44 PM GMT
Thats been my thinking as well so I've  topped up on Ann.My head says she will be safe but got to admit I'm a bit nervous.
Got her and Amanda as my biggest greens, so going to be a big blow if one of them goes.
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 7:04 PM GMT
The maths are all a bit unquantifiable, but we`ve backed something like a 1.1 shot, which pays about 2.0; might lose this time, but definitely the way forward long term
Report armagnac January 22, 2018 7:14 PM GMT
c'mon then tim, give us some market predictions as your're quite good at.

two new markets, top 3/4 will do
both where ann stays, but one where amanda stays and the other where she goes

tia
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 7:28 PM GMT
Prediction of what the market will do, as opposed to what it should do;

A boy goes;
Ann 3.25
Courtney 3.25
Shane 6.0
Amanda 16

OR Ann goes

Courtney 2.2
Shane 3.5
Amanda 8.0

OR Amanda goes

Ann 3.0
Courtney 3.15
Shane 5.5
Report mach January 22, 2018 7:32 PM GMT
Ann is fading imo, Shane L will end up shorter than Ann if Ann stays imo
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 7:33 PM GMT
Seeing it written in black and white, I think I may have got Amanda`s price a bit wrong, should Ann be gone. Being the market-leading female, she`d probably go shorter than my 8.0, but whatever price, it`s too short!
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 7:35 PM GMT
Those ahead of the curve will agree that Ann is fading, but all the while she`s polling so well, the market will be behind that curve.
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 7:47 PM GMT
Just a bit of a disclaimer; when I was outlining the maths, Ann was at at least 6.8, quite possibly even higher. As the price goes down, so does the potential value behind the strategy.
Report timbuctooth January 22, 2018 7:52 PM GMT
What a fun stand-off this is/has been, amazed the market`s not telling us who`s gone, so well done TPTB.

Anyone care to offer a different set of predicted prices?
Report armagnac January 22, 2018 7:58 PM GMT
thanks tim, ignore mach 1 plankton makes more than him
Report armagnac January 22, 2018 8:02 PM GMT
ann's meme now has 1400 shares, and 4500 likes..more than enough to win any VTW, does not even include the nolan voting effect
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