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stu
30 Apr 18 10:27
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Date Joined: 12 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 13,075 | Blogger: stu's blog
Only with a small aftertime (as I took a slightly bigger price a little while ago) 11.5 for Allen to take it down this year seems pretty big to me.

Masters winner, beating Ronnie, Higgins, Wilson in succession - he's proven he can take the big prizes and scalps.

Any reason he's a bigger price than players like Dudd and Williams here (still just bigger than both)?

As an outright bet, can't see better currently - toughish draw but he's beaten them all before (and recently) - a double out of the triple crown on IMO.
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Report stu April 30, 2018 11:31 AM BST
Should add, I realise several of these facts were there earlier, but in the context of the 1 and 2 seeds out also current price needs considering...relative to those others mentioned here.
Report gjohn101 April 30, 2018 11:32 AM BST
I guess people see the progress he's making but dont really trust him yet in the really big matches here. His record here isn't the best, but I can see why you could say he's slightly overpriced compared to Trump and Williams who I'd agree are far more unlikely tournament winners. I'm almost certain I remember Wilson beating him here before but while Wilson looks a model of consistency picking off lower ranked players, I still have questions about him when he makes the step up against those ranked higher, at the major tournaments anyway. My dough would be on Allen to get through.
Report gjohn101 April 30, 2018 11:36 AM BST
And yeah, the idea of Allen winning two of the seasons majors is a big leap to take. What odds on that at the start of the season? Wilson/Higgins/Ding or Hawkins, still a long road for him however it pans out. Could be shorter maybe but I dont think he's outrageously priced or anything.
Report stu April 30, 2018 11:39 AM BST
Fair points to consider I agree. But we'd have said the same about winning a first major too, and he managed that.

No-one is ever a cert at this point to win a WC of course, but I think it's the relative prices that get me with his current price outright.
Report stu April 30, 2018 11:51 AM BST
Trump hasn't even made the quarters yet and he's shorter.
Report wondersobright April 30, 2018 11:54 AM BST
allen was value the moment selby got knocked out imo
wilson is not a nice QF to have but wilson has tip issues
I am already on outright at bigger but I agree 9/1 is still fair
I really rate allen playing at his best although he does have a shocking B game tbf and can look incredibly muggish at times
Report stu April 30, 2018 12:00 PM BST
Agree if he suddenly doesn't turn up this one is over, though prob something you can say about all of them there at the moment (possible exception Higgins, mr consistent).

As for Wilson, the fact that Allen beat him comfy enough in their last and biggest meeting gives me plenty confidence there.
Report gjohn101 April 30, 2018 12:00 PM BST
More than fair point about Trump. But because Trump's price looks wrong, doesnt necessarily mean that Allen's is all that far out from where it should be. How low should he be before he starts to look skinny? Probably a point or maybe two at the most I'd argue.
Mark's problem over the years has always been lack of concentration on shots. Yes affects them all at times, but he in particular seemed to have a double or even triple dose of it and it's surely why he doesnt have a great Crucible record. I like him and hope he goes close or even wins it.
Report stu April 30, 2018 12:02 PM BST
Sorry that should have read: 'last biggest meeting' (the masters final) - Wilson did beat him in the more recent much smaller game they played.
Report gjohn101 April 30, 2018 12:03 PM BST
Fwiw I think Hawkins price is a couple of more ticks above what it probably should be than Marks. I wouldnt rate his chances anyway inferior to Allen's to be honest.
Report stu April 30, 2018 12:03 PM BST
You're right he will need to keep on top of himself, but seems to have developed a way to do that when it matters these days (i.e. at the bigger times in the season)
Report stu April 30, 2018 12:04 PM BST
Must admit, I'm on the fence with Hawkins - he's got the ability, but not sure about his mindset.
Report gjohn101 April 30, 2018 12:07 PM BST
Hawkins has to step up alright, particularly if he gets to the 1 table situation again as gobelins pointed out on another thread. Mixed messages from him so far. Allen is such a good player and he has the ability to do it. I love the little flicks and delicate little shots he plays when on song and he's a damn good and inventive safety player when he wants to be. I dont think Wilson is in that league at all so if Allen performs as he can, I think he'll finish that with a couple of frames to spare at least.
Report johnnythebull April 30, 2018 12:27 PM BST
he'll never have a better opportunity..he has to stop that slobbish,loose,happy go lucky mindset from taking over as it has so much and cost him in the past
he can play as well as anyone left in
i'm still not convinced that if Trump gets over the line today he won't beat Higgins who is well overrated..he will NOT be winning
the TOWIE bird of prey/Ding could be a cracker as neither will be intimidated by the other and whoever prevails must have a big chance
Report gobelins April 30, 2018 12:30 PM BST
The well being of K.Wilson's tip is obviously of huge significance. If he is happy with it, then it's evens the pair for me. M.Allen was in better form when they met in The Masters final and prevailed 10-7, after winning the last 2 frames, but Wilson beat him here 13-9 a couple of seasons ago when his match play was sumply superb. Allen is a lovely player to watch and he seems in a really good place right now, which hasn't always been the case, but he does have a tendency here to 'go missing'. He has played to a consistent level in each of his 5 sessions so far, but K.Wilson has a game tailor-made for this event. He is still on an upcurve and his day to day consistency means you generally have to play well to beat him. Allen maybe margins favourite, but he looks too short at 4/6 for me.
Report gobelins April 30, 2018 12:47 PM BST
On stu's original point - M.Allen's price doesn't look too far off the mark to me. He will be the underdog in the SF and possibly the Final, should he make it past K.Wilson. For all Allen's positives, and there are several, he is the number 16 seed, and he will be the lowest ranked player left in the draw tomorrow should J.Trump win.

I'm writing this on my phone hence the typo's.
Report stu April 30, 2018 1:23 PM BST
Isn't the 'ranking' a bit of a red-herring though here? He was only 8th seeded when winning the masters?
Report stu April 30, 2018 1:23 PM BST
I take onboard his 'going missing' issue - but like I say, he seemed to sort it this year when it really mattered.
Report Lufc86 April 30, 2018 1:25 PM BST
Allen vs Ding for the final for me
Report mr_sykes April 30, 2018 4:31 PM BST
wouldnt be overly keen on allen winning it outright,its hard to win 2 majors in the one season and this event could be someone else's turn to win,although to be fair he has played well to date,price is about right...
Report davyb April 30, 2018 4:38 PM BST
fancy ding v allen final myself

fully expect williams  get the job done tonight so of the 1/4 final line ups i think  allen to beat wilson is the easiest  one to call as the others is all about who turns up on the day
Report BornToWin April 30, 2018 5:11 PM BST
Don't see Allen going the distance, mainly due to the fitness issue.

Physical fitness helps mental fitness as we all know. He can't do the mental marathon imo.

Think he can get past Wilson, who seems to slam a lot of shots rather than cueing well. The buckets generally accept these slams though.
Report gjohn101 April 30, 2018 5:21 PM BST
I'd have a slightly different take born, not disputing Allen's fitness or anything or saying it isnt a factor, just wouldnt have it as a decisive one. Higgins can and has done it here and is there that much of a difference between him and Allen?

What I see in Allen is a guy that has matured and looks happy in himself and that promotes mental fitness all the more in my book. This is a guy who only a few years ago was battling chronic depression and a serious family issue that, iirc, ended or very nearly ended up in the courts. He's noticeably doing a lot less moaning and whingeing now too which i think was down to the depression issues he was battling. Doesnt mean he'll win, but I reckon it'll help him give it a damn good shot.

Same goes for Ding btw, seemed down in dumps to me only a couple of years ago, but looks a picture of mental health now, marriage and stable family life can surely only help his game.
Report stu April 30, 2018 7:32 PM BST
Probably winning some rather large chunks of cash this year have helped with his depression issues!

I know money isn't everything, but it helps.
Report peckerdunne April 30, 2018 7:35 PM BST
trump ding allen

fanboys everywhere for years

solid mental aptitude

titles

Cry
Report BornToWin April 30, 2018 7:36 PM BST
Ah, but John hasn't won since 2011. He has only beefed up since then.
He would have won last year imo, given higher fitness.

This is a mini obsession of mine i will admit, but the world champ is 9/10 not carrying any extra poundage.
Report gobelins April 30, 2018 7:44 PM BST
I agree with a lot of what gj says, and I don't think the money is that much of an issue to be honest. Allen had a lot of negative things to say about B.Hearn when the changes were first introduced, and seemed to lead a one-man crusade against him. He was particularly scathing about the change in format to the UK (he actually went into a press conference with his mouth taped up so not to incur any further disciplinary charges), and he has spoken extensively about how hard he finds the travelling, and spending weeks at a time away from his family. But, he now seems at ease with himself and is concentrating on his snooker. His Masters win was huge in terms of self-belief and he undoubtedly sees himself as one of the games elite now.

stu - I agree with you regarding the rankings, but I highlighted it to show that his current form isn't that good, and he has been very, very quiet since his Masters win - not that that is necessarily a bad thing.
Report stu April 30, 2018 9:21 PM BST
I did slightly worry about the recent form issue, must admit. However, the alternative take is that he's saving himself a little more for these big events it seems. Certainly he's already played better than at other events, so seems the case.
Report gjohn101 April 30, 2018 9:52 PM BST
Really though, how much weight should you attach to recent form with regard to the world champs? Couple of years back Selby rocks up in worst ever form and wins the thing. This year he comes in on the back of a title win and gets dumped on his @ss first round. Ronnie won it having hardly played a frame all year.

Best of 7s is no guide to what happens here, it’s a course and distance kind of track.
Report gobelins April 30, 2018 10:10 PM BST
Current form has to be an element though gj, although I would always value previous Crucible form above it. Why was R.Day only 40/1 for the title when realistically, he should have been in the 100/1 bar bracket?
Report gjohn101 April 30, 2018 10:41 PM BST
So the market was wrong about Day, that doesn’t negate what I said I think. It’s just one element of several but just not sure how prominent it should be. As far as Allen is concerned the only recent form that interests me is his masters win. Don’t know what he did since and frankly couldn’t care.
Report stu April 30, 2018 11:23 PM BST
Think you have to factor in the most recent form (i.e. here) as well - he beat the Selby-slayer Perry easily once the chips were down. In his other tournies he might have lost such matches, so his most recent form is basically very good.
Report gobelins May 1, 2018 6:54 AM BST
Had Allen won another tournament since The Masters then his price would be shorter, and the opening post was about whether he was currently overpriced. Like you, I don't believe it would make any difference to his chance of winning here, but it would be factored in some way into his price.
Report gjohn101 May 1, 2018 9:04 AM BST
Oh yeah that’s absolutely the case. No argument. But I think we’re both agreed that the market was totally wrong about Day (he wasn’t far off the price of both Allen and Wilson ffs). And in the same way Ronnie’s price was based around form at tournaments that weren’t going to have a huge bearing on the task that faced him here and that’s not hindsight talking. Everybody knew that.
Report stu May 1, 2018 9:25 AM BST
I've been pondering about the similarity with Tennis - where the bigger players basically play their B-game in smaller tournies and then try to bring the A-Game only in the real biggies...
Report stu May 1, 2018 9:26 AM BST
I'm almost certain Allen has taken that approach this year.
Report stu May 1, 2018 9:27 AM BST
....or should I say I hope he has! Laugh
Report gjohn101 May 1, 2018 10:02 AM BST
That’s an interesting one. Only thing is a guy in Allen’s position would have to be careful with his ranking because the top 16 is where you still have to be. Don’t think the gap between 16 and 17 in tennis is all that profound. Don’t know if guys are deliberately going out with their b games, just seems to be a hard sport to find consistency nowadays.
Report Latalomne May 1, 2018 10:02 AM BST

Apr 30, 2018 -- 11:23PM, stu wrote:


Think you have to factor in the most recent form (i.e. here) as well - he beat the Selby-slayer Perry easily once the chips were down. In his other tournies he might have lost such matches, so his most recent form is basically very good.


He took his chances well in the final session against Perry, but it was like some mug from the local pool hall wearing a Perry mask turned up for those final few frames.  It wasn't the Perry who had competed so well for the rest of the tournament.

Report stu May 1, 2018 10:04 AM BST
Fair comment on Perry, though 'taking the chances' at the key points will be what it comes down to in most of these matches.
Report Latalomne May 1, 2018 10:04 AM BST

May 1, 2018 -- 10:02AM, gjohn101 wrote:


That’s an interesting one. Only thing is a guy in Allen’s position would have to be careful with his ranking because the top 16 is where you still have to be. Don’t think the gap between 16 and 17 in tennis is all that profound. Don’t know if guys are deliberately going out with their b games, just seems to be a hard sport to find consistency nowadays.


And that is my other concern.  He was in and on match ball against Williams in China which would have guaranteed his Top 16 place and need not to qualify for the worlds.  He missed a simple pot, Williams cleared up, and it was only results elsewhere that meant he was there by right.

Report Latalomne May 1, 2018 10:05 AM BST
*here (rather than "there")
Report Latalomne May 1, 2018 10:08 AM BST
Having said all that, Wilson was very wasteful against a poor Jones in the last round, too.  Several really bad positional shots when in and amongst the balls.

Prices about right for me.
Report gjohn101 May 1, 2018 10:12 AM BST
That’s a fair post Lata, I’m probably guilty of overstating my position here, I think it’s only applicable in a general sense.
Report stu May 1, 2018 10:48 AM BST
Ok, can I start to get my apologies in already....Cry
Report peckerdunne May 1, 2018 10:59 AM BST
MENTAL APTITUDE
Report roadrunner46 May 1, 2018 11:24 AM BST
id like see to ding junhui win this world championship, runner up a couple of years agoWink
Report stu May 1, 2018 11:16 PM BST
Just wanted to say of course got this one completely wrong, a bit like Allen's game today. It now amazes me that he managed to win a Masters, almost a different person sat there in his seat, but that's the madness of this game sometimes.
Report gobelins May 2, 2018 7:00 AM BST
The result of the match doesn't mean you were right or wrong stu. You backed him because you thought he price was too high - and that's what we should all be doing. But, he always seems to have a session like that one last night here (last year he lost the middle session 6-2 to J.Higgins, having gone into it 5-3 in front, he lost the 1st session against K.Wilson 1-7 when they met here 2 years ago, and he collapsed from 9-7 and 11-8 in front the year before against B.Hawkins). He looked so passive last night, and seemed resigned to his fate a long way out. It's a big problem for him when he plays here, and this lack of consistency probably goes a long way to explaining his poor record here.
Report jed.davison May 2, 2018 8:29 AM BST
Don't beat yourself up stu, I've been wrong about the winner every year since JT made his debut here and I haven't had a cent on him this year and he's going to win it.
Report gjohn101 May 2, 2018 8:56 AM BST
Have been wrong about Wilson for a while now, been under estimating him repeatedly. Still not sure he’s world champ material yet but he’s in a sf almost certainly and won’t fear anyone. He’s not exactly flash or anything, but looks very solid and takes his chances when he gets them.

Was more focused on other game last night but my abiding memory of this match is Allen at the table, frame at his mercy, critical miss, Wilson clears up. Seemed to sum up a lot of the frames I saw anyway.
Report jed.davison May 2, 2018 9:24 AM BST
You and me both gj - wrong about Wilson that is.

I watched the other game too last night and even allowing for Ding's laboured display I thought Hawkins was superb.
Report gobelins May 2, 2018 10:04 AM BST
gj - we'll have to call it a score draw regarding the merits of K.Wilson and A.McGill - unless of course either M.Allen pulls off an unlikely comeback, or McGill bolts in next year! Both possibilities though seem very, very unlikely.
Report thegiggilo May 2, 2018 10:08 AM BST
Wilsons a battler,find him hard to watch but when you're playing a bunch of bottlers you must havw a great chance..
Report stu May 2, 2018 10:10 AM BST
What got me about wilson was how far he missed some of the pot attempts earlier, practically half way up the cushion at times!

I think Allen's handed him this one personally, but then don't listen to me at the moment....
Report stu May 2, 2018 10:11 AM BST
As you can probably tell, I was in fairly heavy in match/tournie for Allen here, so I'm taking backseat betting wise for a while.
Report gjohn101 May 2, 2018 10:23 AM BST
We’ve all been there stu, no harm to take a break. When ding goes won’t be doing much more myself, just hope Trump could win it playing great snooker but wouldn’t want to bet on that.

In fairness to me gobe I was always pretty sure about McGill and remain so but clearly Wilson had something more. Where I erred was in overlooking the fact that a young player does not need to be a world beater to make progress in today’s field. I thought top 10 sure, probably higher, but world champion? That’s where he could prove me full of horse radish!!

I did get the impression Allen handed it to him too but then again I wasn’t glued to it
Report peckerdunne May 2, 2018 10:34 AM BST
M E L T S

This snooker forum loves a melt for years now...

People just keep throwing good after bad.

Ding must have 5 by now, Judd 3, Allen must have 1 by now..
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