Elizabeth Warren is the current favourite on Betfair to be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2020.
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I’ve already started shorting her on Betfair in the “Who will win the 2020 Presidential Election?” market
Below are the reasons why I think Warren has little chance to be the Democratic nominee or next President.
1. If Bernie Sanders runs, she has no chance of getting nominated.
Sanders and Warren both represent the far left of the political spectrum.
Sanders has the following going for him:
• He has out polled Warren in every poll ever taken on the two.
• He has a vast capacity to out fundraise her.
• I don’t see how Warren could beat him in a Primary contest.
In fact if Sanders runs, there is really no point to Warren running at all as she would split the far left vote and make it more likely that a moderate Democrat wins the nomination. (Which presumably she wouldn’t want [or would she?])
Sanders has given every indication he will run again, yes he is getting older but his life’s work is on the line and he’s become even more popular. I’d say there’s an 80% chance Sanders will run in 2020.
2. Even if Sanders doesn’t run, Warren would still have to beat the moderate Democratic candidates like Joe Biden & Kamala Harris.
I’d say Joe Biden would be the overwhelming favourite against Warren.
At this stage only the political nuts (I’m political nut) are talking about Kamala Harris the Senator from California, but once campaigning starts and the general public see that she’s the female version of Barack Obama they’ll flock to her in droves. It’s hard to imagine a world where Warren would beat Harris.
There’s a 50% chance Biden will run, and a 95% chance Kamala Harris will run.
3. Warren may not even run
Warren was supposed to run in 2016, but was scared off by Hillary Clinton.
She claims in her book that her husband thought it was a bad idea to run for president because it would be so hard on them. (He’s right)
It seems she may not be that into running for President, if she was scared off by Hillary so easily than that tells me she could be scared off again.
I have Warren at a 70% chance of running in 2020.
4. She didn’t support Bernie in 2016, so many Bernie progressives don’t trust her.
5. She has no charisma and is a below average orator
This is highly subjective, but for me she has 0% charisma, and I hope we can agree that elections are at their core popularity contests. Anyone can have good ideas, but can you connect with people you don’t know? Can you bring people around to your way of thinking? Can you motivate and inspire people like Obama did?
Whenever I watch Warren, I normally watch 30 seconds and then hit mute (and substantively I already agree with her on most things). She screams a lot and has a very monotone voice. If she could get some speech coaches to help her with her presentation skills then that would help, but really at her age she should have already worked that out.
I would actually rate Hillary higher than Warren in oratory skills.
6. She claimed to be Native American, and she’s not.
She has been mercilessly mocked by Trump who has labelled her “Pocahontas”.
She’s not Native American and if she runs the mockery will be 100 times worse, it will chip away at her credibility among swing voters. This one exaggeration (or lie), will haunt her like Hillary’s “private server” haunted her campaign.
I realize this is terribly unfair since Trump lies all the time, but Trump is a performance artist, Warren is not. Politics like sport like life in not fair.
7. Trump would probably beat her in a Presidential election.
If by some chance she did get the Democratic nomination she would probably lose to Trump.
Unless Trump does something truly insane like launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Gibraltar, then his support levels will probably stay where they are. Remember it doesn’t matter if Trump loses California and New York by 90%, he just has to hold the Rust belt states.
When I put this article on Twitter, I’ll get a lot of hate tweets saying that I’m sexist. I know that it’s not because the top two people I like for the job are in fact women. I’ll be writing about them soon.
The only way she could have any chance to win the Democratic nomination is if Sanders does NOT run AND he endorses her early, that scenario is highly unlikely.
My odds of Warren being the Democratic nominee for 2020 are $11 (9.1% chance), so her chances of being the next president are around $22 (4.5% chance).
Follow me on Twitter: @ShawnCollinsLSP