Date Joined: 26 Jan 17
view profile

Blog Archive

Nobody is following this blog
Speculation about Trump being impeached is reaching fever pitch in the media. A new Betfair market will allow you to trade on this question.
You can bet on 2017, 2018, 2019 or “2020 or later”.

I believe the prices are heavily distorted against Trump due to media hype, so I’ve already taken a position. Note, that there isn’t much liquidity at the moment, but I do notice that every few days several thousand dollars is placed in the market.

I’ve laid the year “2017” at $7 (14.29% chance), meaning I’ve risked $10,234 in order to win $1,707 if Trump is still in office at the end of this year 2017.

Firstly, how does a President get impeached, and then removed from office?

-There has to be some type of serious crime committed. Under Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, a President can be impeached upon “Treason, Bribery, or other High crimes and Misdemeanors.”

-The House of Representatives starts an investigation into the alleged crime, then if there is enough evidence the House votes on it. A simple majority is needed for the impeachment to then be handed to the Senate.

-The Senate will have a trial, with all the senators acting as the jury. A 2/3rds majority is needed to convict the President, which would then lead to removal from office.

I’m not sure if traders are focusing on this but Republicans have a MAJORITY in BOTH houses of Congress! It would be utter career and personal suicide for a Republican to vote against a Republican President.

I’ve priced the market myself below.

The year in which Trump will leave office?

Year                Odds    Percent Change

2017                $17      5.9%
2018                $12      8.3%
2019                $6       16.7%
2020 and later $1.45    69%

There is a reason why the odds change dramatically from 2019. In November 2018 there’ll be mid term elections. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested.

It’s possible that the Democrats could win back control of the House of Representatives, and less likely control of the Senate. If that does occur then yes, an impeachment of Trump is possible. But remember that wouldn’t be until 2019, because in December 2018 Congress will be away for the Christmas break.

On top of all this, it seems Betfair haven’t thought out the market options very well, they should also have 2020 as a separate year, and then “2021 and later”. The reason is that if Trump were to lose the 2020 election, he would still be the President up until January 2021 when the inauguration of the incoming President would occur.

One thing that you should be careful with is Trump’s health. You would lose the bet if Trump left office due to his health or death (from natural causes). I actually checked on a few actuarial sites about life spans for someone like Trump, 70 years old, non smoker, doesn’t drink alcohol, loves junk food, and doesn’t seem to exercise much. He has a 75% chance of living until he is 89 years old. I’ll be watching his health but I don’t see it playing a part in the next few years.

A few other things to consider:

-A President has never been removed from office through the impeachment process in the 238 year history of the country. Bill Clinton was impeached and then it failed in the Senate.

-The main reason the prices are so short for Trump to leave office early is the constant onslaught of articles about it in the mainstream media. Hint, the media don’t vote, the Congress does.

-If Trump were impeached this year or in 2018, the violence and mayhem that would follow should terrify any politician thinking about it.

-There is indeed a movement against Trump, but 62,979,879 people voted for him. Again the protest against a Trump impeachment would be overwhelming.

-It’s unclear even among constitutional lawyers, but it’s highly unlikely that Trump could be impeached on things that he has already allegedly done before he was sworn in to office.

-If you think Trump lies, is uncouth, is a blow hard, is a conspiracy theorist, is thin skinned and anti-women, well none of that even comes close to getting him to the first step of impeachment.

-If Trump were caught on video committing a heinous crime while in office, then yes I would change my calculations, but again this would be highly unlikely. And I emphasis it would need to be on video.

Trump being impeached in 2017 is highly unlikely. If you agree with me, then you could make some serious money trading this market.

Full article here:

Follow me on Twitter @ShawnCollinsLSP

Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
No Comments [ 834 views ]

New to Betfair?

You need to open an account before you can add content to the forum.

Opening an account only takes a few minutes.

register now