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Elizabeth Warren is the current favourite on Betfair to be the Democratic Nominee for President in 2020.

To read full article with links and graphics please go to:
http://www.longshortpolitics.com/elizabeth-warren-little-chance-winning-2020/


I’ve already started shorting her on Betfair in the “Who will win the 2020 Presidential Election?” market

Below are the reasons why I think Warren has little chance to be the Democratic nominee or next President.

1. If Bernie Sanders runs, she has no chance of getting nominated.

Sanders and Warren both represent the far left of the political spectrum.

Sanders has the following going for him:
•    He has out polled Warren in every poll ever taken on the two.
•    He has a vast capacity to out fundraise her.
•    I don’t see how Warren could beat him in a Primary contest.

In fact if Sanders runs, there is really no point to Warren running at all as she would split the far left vote and make it more likely that a moderate Democrat wins the nomination. (Which presumably she wouldn’t want [or would she?])

Sanders has given every indication he will run again, yes he is getting older but his life’s work is on the line and he’s become even more popular. I’d say there’s an 80% chance Sanders will run in 2020. 

2. Even if Sanders doesn’t run, Warren would still have to beat the moderate Democratic candidates like Joe Biden & Kamala Harris.

I’d say Joe Biden would be the overwhelming favourite against Warren. 

At this stage only the political nuts (I’m political nut) are talking about Kamala Harris the Senator from California, but once campaigning starts and the general public see that she’s the female version of Barack Obama they’ll flock to her in droves. It’s hard to imagine a world where Warren would beat Harris.

There’s a 50% chance Biden will run, and a 95% chance Kamala Harris will run.

3. Warren may not even run

Warren was supposed to run in 2016, but was scared off by Hillary Clinton.

She claims in her book that her husband thought it was a bad idea to run for president because it would be so hard on them. (He’s right)

It seems she may not be that into running for President, if she was scared off by Hillary so easily than that tells me she could be scared off again. 

I have Warren at a 70% chance of running in 2020.

4. She didn’t support Bernie in 2016, so many Bernie progressives don’t trust her.

5. She has no charisma and is a below average orator

This is highly subjective, but for me she has 0% charisma, and I hope we can agree that elections are at their core popularity contests. Anyone can have good ideas, but can you connect with people you don’t know? Can you bring people around to your way of thinking? Can you motivate and inspire people like Obama did?

Whenever I watch Warren, I normally watch 30 seconds and then hit mute (and substantively I already agree with her on most things). She screams a lot and has a very monotone voice. If she could get some speech coaches to help her with her presentation skills then that would help, but really at her age she should have already worked that out. 

I would actually rate Hillary higher than Warren in oratory skills.

6. She claimed to be Native American, and she’s not.

She has been mercilessly mocked by Trump who has labelled her “Pocahontas”.

She’s not Native American and if she runs the mockery will be 100 times worse, it will chip away at her credibility among swing voters. This one exaggeration (or lie), will haunt her like Hillary’s “private server” haunted her campaign.

I realize this is terribly unfair since Trump lies all the time, but Trump is a performance artist, Warren is not. Politics like sport like life in not fair.

7. Trump would probably beat her in a Presidential election.

If by some chance she did get the Democratic nomination she would probably lose to Trump.

Unless Trump does something truly insane like launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Gibraltar, then his support levels will probably stay where they are. Remember it doesn’t matter if Trump loses California and New York by 90%, he just has to hold the Rust belt states.

When I put this article on Twitter, I’ll get a lot of hate tweets saying that I’m sexist. I know that it’s not because the top two people I like for the job are in fact women. I’ll be writing about them soon.

The only way she could have any chance to win the Democratic nomination is if Sanders does NOT run AND he endorses her early, that scenario is highly unlikely.

My odds of Warren being the Democratic nominee for 2020 are $11 (9.1% chance), so her chances of being the next president are around $22 (4.5% chance).

Follow me on Twitter: @ShawnCollinsLSP
www.LongShortPolitics.com



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Speculation about Trump being impeached is reaching fever pitch in the media. A new Betfair market will allow you to trade on this question.
You can bet on 2017, 2018, 2019 or “2020 or later”.

I believe the prices are heavily distorted against Trump due to media hype, so I’ve already taken a position. Note, that there isn’t much liquidity at the moment, but I do notice that every few days several thousand dollars is placed in the market.

I’ve laid the year “2017” at $7 (14.29% chance), meaning I’ve risked $10,234 in order to win $1,707 if Trump is still in office at the end of this year 2017.

Firstly, how does a President get impeached, and then removed from office?

-There has to be some type of serious crime committed. Under Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, a President can be impeached upon “Treason, Bribery, or other High crimes and Misdemeanors.”

-The House of Representatives starts an investigation into the alleged crime, then if there is enough evidence the House votes on it. A simple majority is needed for the impeachment to then be handed to the Senate.

-The Senate will have a trial, with all the senators acting as the jury. A 2/3rds majority is needed to convict the President, which would then lead to removal from office.

I’m not sure if traders are focusing on this but Republicans have a MAJORITY in BOTH houses of Congress! It would be utter career and personal suicide for a Republican to vote against a Republican President.

I’ve priced the market myself below.

The year in which Trump will leave office?

Year                Odds    Percent Change

2017                $17      5.9%
2018                $12      8.3%
2019                $6       16.7%
2020 and later $1.45    69%

There is a reason why the odds change dramatically from 2019. In November 2018 there’ll be mid term elections. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested.

It’s possible that the Democrats could win back control of the House of Representatives, and less likely control of the Senate. If that does occur then yes, an impeachment of Trump is possible. But remember that wouldn’t be until 2019, because in December 2018 Congress will be away for the Christmas break.

On top of all this, it seems Betfair haven’t thought out the market options very well, they should also have 2020 as a separate year, and then “2021 and later”. The reason is that if Trump were to lose the 2020 election, he would still be the President up until January 2021 when the inauguration of the incoming President would occur.

One thing that you should be careful with is Trump’s health. You would lose the bet if Trump left office due to his health or death (from natural causes). I actually checked on a few actuarial sites about life spans for someone like Trump, 70 years old, non smoker, doesn’t drink alcohol, loves junk food, and doesn’t seem to exercise much. He has a 75% chance of living until he is 89 years old. I’ll be watching his health but I don’t see it playing a part in the next few years.

A few other things to consider:

-A President has never been removed from office through the impeachment process in the 238 year history of the country. Bill Clinton was impeached and then it failed in the Senate.

-The main reason the prices are so short for Trump to leave office early is the constant onslaught of articles about it in the mainstream media. Hint, the media don’t vote, the Congress does.

-If Trump were impeached this year or in 2018, the violence and mayhem that would follow should terrify any politician thinking about it.

-There is indeed a movement against Trump, but 62,979,879 people voted for him. Again the protest against a Trump impeachment would be overwhelming.

-It’s unclear even among constitutional lawyers, but it’s highly unlikely that Trump could be impeached on things that he has already allegedly done before he was sworn in to office.

-If you think Trump lies, is uncouth, is a blow hard, is a conspiracy theorist, is thin skinned and anti-women, well none of that even comes close to getting him to the first step of impeachment.

-If Trump were caught on video committing a heinous crime while in office, then yes I would change my calculations, but again this would be highly unlikely. And I emphasis it would need to be on video.

Trump being impeached in 2017 is highly unlikely. If you agree with me, then you could make some serious money trading this market.

Full article here: http://www.longshortpolitics.com/in-what-year-will-donald-trump-leave-office/

Follow me on Twitter @ShawnCollinsLSP


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