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Racecaller's Blog
The race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup, takes place at Flemington Racecourse on the first Tuesday of November (1st). As usual there will be a European raiding party heading over to try to return home with the Cup and emulate Americain’s achievement last year.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 3-11-71
5yo: 5-7-68
6yo: 1-6-49
7yo: 1-2-27
8yo+: 0-3-11
No huge bias on aged but horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 and the two exceptions were both Makybe Diva winning it as a 6yo and 7yo.

Weights (in kilos)
Horses carrying 57.0 or more: 1-3-11
Horses carrying 54 to 56.5: 4-11-63
Horses carrying 51 to 53.5: 5-11-116
Horses carrying 50.5 or less: 0-5-38
If we just focus on more recent times, in the last 6 years:
Horses carrying 53.0 or more: 5-11-69
Horses carrying 52.5 or less: 1-7-66

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won a group race last time (5 others beaten in group 1)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 17 days
7 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (3exceptions were trained outside of Aus&NZ)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
10 of 10 winners had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had run in a group 1
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 2 finished 6th & 7th)
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
5 of 10 winners had won at the track (4 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14 or more runners

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Americain): 1170 (2-0-4)
Geelong Cup winner: 4102921 (2-3-7)
Turnbull Stakes winner (December Draw): 4104 (1-2-4)
Lexus Stakes winner: 5000039613 (1-2-10)
Memsie Stakes winner (King's Rose): 13 (1-1-2)
Australian Cup winner (Shocking): 14 (1-1-2)
Previous season's Victoria Derby winner (Lion Tamer): 41 (1-1-2)
Cox Plate winner: 13 (1-1-2)
Mackinnon Stakes winner: 103 (1-1-3)
Previous season's VRC QE Stakes winner (Moudre): 0130 (1-1-4)
Brisbane Cup winner (): 0601 (1-1-4)
Caulfield Cup winner: 140087P (1-1-7)
Prix Kergolay winner (Jukebox Jury): 1 (1-0-1)
Sydney Cup winner (Stand To Gain): 10 (1-0-2)
The BMW Stakes winner (Cedarberg): P100 (1-0-4)
Underwood Stakes winner (Lion Tamer): 43 (0-2-2)
Irish St Leger winner (Jukebox Jury): 420 (0-2-3)
Makybe Diva Stakes winner (Littorio): 40 (0-1-2)
Caulfield Stakes winner (Descarado): 03 (0-1-2)
Yalumba/Caulfield Stakes winner (): 03 (0-1-2)
Herbert Power Stakes winner (Shewan): 084860 (0-1-6)
AJC Oaks winner (Absolutely): 000 (0-0-3)
AJC Derby winner (Shamrocker): 000 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Caufield Cup, finishing 14230
4 of 10 winners ran in the Turnbull Stakes, finishing 4710
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, finishing 224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Memsie Stakes, finishing 410
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cox Plate, finishing 19
2 of 10 winners ran in Geelong Cup, finishing 11

Trainers
Lee Freedman (2-0-4) twice won the race with Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005.
Dermot Weld (1-2-7) is still the only European trainer to have won the race twice (‘93&’02). In the past decade he has saddled the winner and 2 places from 7 runners. Only 1 of his 7 runners have finished out of the top half.
David Hall (1-2-5) and Graeme Rogerson (1-2-6) have each trained the winner and 2 placed finishers.
Katsuhiko Sumii (1-1-2) from Japan trained the 1-2 in 2007. Bart Cummings (1-1-13), Alain Royer-Dupre (1-0-1) and Mark Kavanagh (1-0-2) have also saddled the winner once since 2001.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-11) has gained 3 places in past 10 runnings. Tony Vasil’s (0-2-2) only 2 runners finished 3rd and 4th in 2004. Luca Cumani (0-2-5) has had the runner-up in this race in 2 of the last 4 years while Danny O’Brien (0-2-9) saddled Master O’Reilly to be placed in 2008 & 2009.
Record of Irish-trained runners: 1-3-13
Record of French-trained runners: 1-0-3
Record of British-trained runners: 0-7-31

Draw
Horses drawn 1-7: 2-13-70
Horses drawn 8-14: 7-10-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 1-7-88
Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre.
The likely reasoning for this is that horses drawn on the inside will struggle to get a run if they do not break well while horses drawn wide may have to expend a lot of energy to get a good early position.
In the past 8 years 14 of the 16 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn between stalls 7 and 14.

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
However 3 of the last 5 winners have been price 17/1, 16/1 and 40/1, so not a particularly strong trends race pricewise.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 runnings (both Makybe Diva), giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners were held up in 8th to 16th place at the halfway point
Hold-up horses are favoured but as with all big competitive races you will need luck in running.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 or 5
•    Carrying 53.0 kilos or more
•    Ran in a group race in the last 17 days
•    Run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (or trained outside Aus/NZ)
•    Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
•    Finished in the first 4 in a group 1
•    Won over 2400m or further
•    Won a race with 14+ runners
•    Run in 13 or fewer handicaps
•    Course winner (or having first run at Flemington)
•    Ran in Caulfield Cup, Turnbull, Memsie or Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes
•    Likes to be held up
•    Drawn 7 to 14
•    Trained by Lee Freedman or Dermot Weld
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