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politicspunter
07 Jul 18 23:08
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Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 1,131 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
New poll out tomorrow has Labour ahead 40-38.
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Pause Switch to Standard View Survation (the best) poll has Labour...
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Report tanglefoot July 8, 2018 12:17 AM BST
I would suggest,much bigger lead, Mrs May has lost 4 million votes, with her deceit
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 1:36 AM BST
They should be miles ahead given how May is behaving.

If they had a non-Marxist leadership they would be. May is using the threat of Corbyn to get patriots to fall in line with her sell out over the Brexit.
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 1:47 AM BST
To be fair Survation are one of the 'best' of a terrible bunch. Pollsters are generally about trying to form opinion by the people who commissioned them rather than a serious forecast based on science.

This is from one of their lastest offerings:
http://survation.com/brexit-vote-two-years-on-survation-for-good-morning-britain/

43% of respondents were in favour of a ‘soft’ Brexit compared to 37% who were in favour of a ‘hard’ version, with an additional 20% saying they did not know. 67% of those who voted Leave in 2016 were supportive of a ‘hard’ Brexit; whereas 67% of Remain voters were in favour of the ‘soft’ version.

Go into the data and you find the whole survey was based on just 1022 people. of those 396 voted leave and 422 voted remain. This did not have enough people who did not vote either. They had to re-weight this to draw their results. It means before they even started to data was biased.
Report politicspunter July 8, 2018 9:30 AM BST
Biased in what way? Opinion polls are a snapshot, a sample at a given time. The 1022 people sampled is fairly standard. Of those asked, 816 of the 1022 said they had voted in the referendum equating to 79% of those questioned. In the referendum 72% of the electorate voted. It would be a bit of a turn up if the figure was exactly 72% in the sample, would it not?
People that take part in these polls are selected to give a representation of the electorate based on age, social grade, location etc.
I recall the book club survey in America from the middle of the last century which had a sample of about five million of it's customers with regard to voting in the presidential election. They got it woefully wrong as it was unrepresentative. Another poll, based on a tiny number compared to the book club one got it just about spot on as it sampled an accurate cross section of the electorate.
Report melv July 8, 2018 10:01 AM BST
May is using the threat of Corbyn to get patriots to fall in line with her sell out over the Brexit.

I agree insider and I hope the strategists in Labour are aware of this and intend to pull a rabbit out the hat called Keir Starmer when the time is ripe . Let the Tories waste their energy attacking Corbyn. I cannot believe they have any left with all the hours they are putting in in the fudge mines.


Fudge free Starmer was there again on Andrew Marr this morning;  his  usual self; clear calm and forensic.
Report politicspunter July 8, 2018 10:19 AM BST
https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html

Found a link to that book club poll in America.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 10:28 AM BST
WARNING WARNING!

Serious comment met with abuse likely here.

Posts reported as well.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 10:42 AM BST
There's the abuse right on cue.

Now we'll have to see if he can get the post removed.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 10:43 AM BST
They must be getting fed up with him reporting posts all the time.

He needs to be careful they don't remove him with all the abuse he slings around.
Report politicspunter July 8, 2018 10:48 AM BST
Why don't you simply allow folks to discuss politics rather than interrupting every thread with you crap?
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 10:57 AM BST
I get the sampling issues. But 1000 people based on a very biased sample at the start that has to be adjusted always seems strange to me. In the American election they always seemed to be 60-70% Democrats in the samples and then reweight. In Brexit they did not get enough non-voters and too many people from cities.

You also have to look at who pays for the polls.

Having said that there is a real issue with people not voting Tories now. Over 65% of Tories voted for independence and May is not delivering. Tories are less likely to get lost the World Cup, Cave resues and actually are interested in Brexit. Particularly the older voters. Once people hit 35 they suddenly are more likely to vote Tory. Once they hit 45 they are more likely to want independence.

But the of the same grown up voters who want independence also do not a Marxist regime in the UK.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 11:05 AM BST
Why don't you simply allow folks to discuss politics rather than interrupting every thread with you crap?

Why don't you do the same?

When you stop popping up with one line abuse, I'll stop warning people about the kind of person they are dealing with.
Report politicspunter July 8, 2018 11:05 AM BST
The biggest error across polling companies at the 2017 general election is that strong weighting was given to some polls based on past voting/likelihood to vote. This obviously was "biased" in favour of older traditional voters that have a preference to vote tory. They completely missed the fact that younger voters and folks that had previously not voted would turn out and vote Labour. Some polling companies like Survation recognised this and gave less weighting to older voters than others.
Report PorcupineorPineapple July 8, 2018 11:28 AM BST
Surely the tories won't be calling an election now.

I think May has - finally - handled this quite well within her party. Was very strong and made Johnson et al blink first.


Fact now is that if they try to topple her it would surely lead to calls for an election. The numbers stack up though. You could get Rees-Mogg in to No.10 but there simply isn't a majority in Parliament to pass a Hard Brexit bill. They know this and that's one of the reasons they folded.

The only thing they can do now is to try and ride it out. Labour's whole gameplan is on the tories killing each other and calling an early election.

They just need to avoid falling into that trap. They can organise their whips round lots of pro-brexit MPs and point out the gains Labour made on them in the last election and the very good chance that they'll lose their job and not be in any position at all to direct Brexit in 12 months' time. Give them a simple choice - keep your job or kick up a fuss. History tells us there's only one winner here. We now know the tories' brexit position and there's every chance that Labour's manifesto could be for a more stringent brexit and suddenly the likes of Philip Davies could be the face of Softer Brexit in his next campaign and be utter toast.

Key thing then is re-framing the conversation and re-building trust with their electorate over the next two or three years. I think they'll say that's enough time. Get in with the EU, try to win a couple of concessions from them that they can trump as victories for their plan and then hope that enough water's gone under the bridge by the next vote.

It's a sh!tshow of their own making and their only hope is mitigating it and letting time pass.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 11:29 AM BST
Dr Crippen
Joined: 16 Apr 02
Replies: 34287
       
politicspunter
Joined: 20 Mar 18
Replies: 218

I see you've been posting for less than 4 months. You're still wet behind the ears.

I've been dealing with rude children like you for 16 years.

I'll continue smacking your bottom in return for abuse until you learn some manners.
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 11:34 AM BST
I think the Brexit cabinet members are now hoping the EU rejects May's plan.
Report politicspunter July 8, 2018 11:35 AM BST
Where would we be if that happens? Is Mays position tenable?
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 11:42 AM BST
Who knows because the HOC is full of people who voted remain and refuse to stand up for the UK. The HOC refuse to leave the EU and then negotiate a trade deal after. This means the EU will never give a mutually beneficial deal.
Report PorcupineorPineapple July 8, 2018 11:43 AM BST
I think this is a potential halfway step to either agreeing a much longer interim period or "postponing" Article 50. Being somewhat honest and saying "we'll still do it but there isn't enough time to do it properly and get a good deal. We're going to postpone, work out what's best and then go for it once we're properly prepared."

The whole WTO side is just oblivion. They all know it and ultimately it'll never get the votes in Parliament so is the emptiest of threats. If they have more time they could potentially walk out with what they want but it's not possible in the time they've given themselves and this fudge is merely the best of the options available to them.
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 11:50 AM BST
It took over 2 years for May to decide what she wanted. So how long could she draw out trade talks?
Report politicspunter July 11, 2018 11:03 PM BST
Yougov poll tonight has tories losing more ground, down to 37%.
Report politicspunter July 11, 2018 11:08 PM BST
Last few yougov polls tory voting intention...44,42,42,42,41,39,37.
Report mafeking July 12, 2018 1:43 AM BST
that's why may will be gone sooner than later. self preservation always first loyalty for MPs of any party. tories will be annihilated at any future election under the current circumstances
Report politicspunter July 12, 2018 12:14 PM BST
There appears to be a general movement away from the tories and towards UKIP. This alone would have no bearing on UKIP winning any seats (they won't) but it will damage the tories across the board in marginals. This could manifest itself in various guises, v Labour in many English constituencies, v LibDem in west country and rural constituencies and in Scotland v the SNP.
Report tony57 July 12, 2018 12:41 PM BST
tories will still be biggest party imo..unless labour can get ex ukip voters back like lto...and labour voters turn out..(which in the north i doubt)but at least the tories are weak...

crippen just posted ..just keep labour out they will be worse..how to you punnish partys who betray you..acording to crippen you vote for them...
Report Dr Crippen July 12, 2018 12:49 PM BST
tony, people with any sense do not cut off their nose to spite their face.

Which is what voting in Labour would mean with this issue.

Although I understand that you tony might well cut off your nose to spite your face, because that kind of thinking forms the cornerstone of socialism.
Report tony57 July 12, 2018 12:51 PM BST
oh yes crippen your so right...Laugh
Report Dr Crippen July 12, 2018 12:52 PM BST
You don't replace a poor system with one that is worse, simply to punish those who were in charge.
Report Dr Crippen July 12, 2018 12:55 PM BST
I heard Emily Thornberry in the Commons yesterday calling for the UK to remain in the single market and the customs union.

So much for Labour's election pledge to take us out of the EU.
Report tony57 July 12, 2018 12:56 PM BST
to effect change you must punnish those who will not change..the tories are a cancer on our politics..and will always benefit the welloff before the many...
Report tony57 July 12, 2018 1:00 PM BST
yes...but they belive they will get a better deal than may..and end freemovement..etc..im not defending them ithink they are living in a fantasy..but corbyn wants out..may does not.
Report akabula July 12, 2018 4:28 PM BST
Piece of advice. When reading a politicspunter post have a pinch of salt or two handy.
Report politicspunter July 12, 2018 5:37 PM BST
Piece of advice. When reading trilby and akabula posts remember they were trying to persuade other posters to invest in Scotgold, of which they are shareholders, before the shares went belly up.
Report politicspunter July 14, 2018 8:37 PM BST
Opinium Poll in the Guardian just out :

Labour ..40% (unchanged)

Tories …36% (-6)

UKIP ….. 8% (+5)

LDem….. 8% (+1)

Same general trends-Conservative down, UKIP up, LibDem up.  A clear pattern emerging.
Report politicspunter July 14, 2018 8:53 PM BST
Crunching the numbers on this poll I have Lab 300, Con 267, SNP 42, Lib 19.  Labour still short of a majority.
Report ufcdan July 14, 2018 9:01 PM BST
Well done Jeremy two points clear mid term over one of the most useless and poorly led Conservative party since John Major...........banner job !
Report politicspunter July 14, 2018 9:12 PM BST
It's 4 points clear.
Report tony57 July 14, 2018 9:23 PM BST
yep but not good enough..as ive said till im blue in the face without embracing brexit labour will not win power...
Report ufcdan July 14, 2018 9:32 PM BST
40-38=2 where I went to school pp
Report politicspunter July 14, 2018 9:53 PM BST
That was last week (July 7th). The one out tonight (about 6 posts up) has them 4 ahead.  It looks to me as if Labour don't have to anything. The conservative party is haemorrhaging votes on their own.
Report ufcdan July 14, 2018 10:17 PM BST
Agree with that PP it's probably why Jeremy has gone missing.
Report politicspunter July 15, 2018 8:43 AM BST
Sun on Sunday poll has Lab 42 Con 37. Five of a lead, how long can the Conservative party sustain these increasing losses before they decide to take matters into their own hands?
Report PorcupineorPineapple July 15, 2018 8:59 AM BST
I personally think the tories are prepared for this. They knew the white paper is going to be anaethema to the swivel-eyed loon side of the party while they're also being tainted by cosying up to that idiot right now. I'd imagine they could see this coming a mile off. Five points behind a year in, when that deficit was a lead a couple of weeks ago doesn't feel that big a deal to me. Get themselves through to recess, everyone off to Tuscany or to meet their backers for a week in Bermuda and then pray that everything's sorted itself out by Autumn.
Report politicspunter July 15, 2018 9:17 AM BST
Well yes, that seems reasonable enough to me. However...rumour control has it that by Friday Graham Brady from the 1922 committee had received 42 of the 48 letters required to call a no confidence vote. Tory MPs in marginal constituencies must be looking back at when they led Labour 50-25 in the early stages of the General election and wonder if they can now hang on to their seat that they probably previously considered safe. The seemingly increasing poll lead Labour have brings more of these previously safe/now marginal seats into play and consequently the number of Tory MPs who might consider heading to their writing bureau.
Report PorcupineorPineapple July 15, 2018 9:26 AM BST
Yep, I'd imagine the whips are busy right now. Johnson due to make a speech in Parliament tomorrow which could be lively and if they're going to try and get her out then now's the time.
Report politicspunter July 18, 2018 8:48 AM BST
Yougov out last night has Lab 41, Con 36. The downward trend for the tories is in freefall.
Report politicspunter July 24, 2018 8:54 PM BST
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vxuhlu27eg/SundayTimesResults_180720_for_web.pdf

Yougov has Tories closing the gap again today. Labour 39, Con 38. More worrying for both of them and of interest to me for betting purposes is that the SNP cross section lead over both of them is the highest I can recall. The SNP and UKIP Scottish figure has been climbing steadily recently indicating erosion of Tory support up there.
Report thegiggilo July 24, 2018 9:51 PM BST
Tories will be wiped out again soon in scotland..
Report politicspunter July 27, 2018 6:17 PM BST
Two polls out today with identical results, Yougov and Ipsos Mori. Both have Lab 38, Con 38, LibDem 10, SNP 4, UKIP 6, Green 3. At least the polls are consistent but we seem to be at an impasse.
Report InsiderTrader July 27, 2018 9:30 PM BST
If Farage came back to the UKIP and quietly dropped some of the unfashionable Islamic stuff UKIP would go to 11-16%. They would disrupt remainer MPs in a GE where they found them.
Report politicspunter July 28, 2018 12:12 PM BST
No doubt "Farage-the return of-the reckoning" would impact voting.
Report enpassant July 28, 2018 5:00 PM BST
'unfashionable'  wtf does that mean
Report InsiderTrader July 28, 2018 6:23 PM BST
It means some people would rather not talk about the grooming gangs and child brides etc.
Report sageform July 28, 2018 9:32 PM BST
If the Conservatives can match Labour at the moment with so much discord and indecision in Government, it does not say much for Labour-and even less for the other smaller parties. With Cable campaigning to stay in the EU, the Lib Dems have no chance.
Report enpassant July 29, 2018 7:54 PM BST

Jul 28, 2018 -- 12:23PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


It means some people would rather not talk about the grooming gangs and child brides etc.


You really are very up and down with your level of discourse IT.

Report enpassant July 29, 2018 7:58 PM BST
We have one of the poorest PM's we have ever had yet the media are focused on Corbyn for being some sort of racist ffs. Vested interests, ideologues and the brain dead lap that sh!te up and the rancids get a pass on their destruction of the country.
Report anxious July 29, 2018 8:07 PM BST
Very true enpassant , mind you the tory lie machine still up to its tricks , double bluff for the peasants , twas ever thus
Report politicspunter August 2, 2018 2:26 PM BST
From electoral calculus...

Current Prediction: Labour short 40 of majority
Party    2017 Votes    2017 Seats    Pred Votes    Pred Seats
CON    43.5%    318    38.2%    282
LAB    41.0%    262    39.4%    286
LIB    7.6%    12    8.8%    16
UKIP    1.9%    0    5.0%    0
Green    1.7%    1    2.9%    1
SNP    3.1%    35    3.4%    44
PlaidC    0.5%    4    0.5%    3
Minor    0.7%    0    1.8%    0
N.Ire         18         18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 03 Jul 2018 to 24 Jul 2018, sampling 11,776 people.
Report politicspunter August 7, 2018 10:21 PM BST
Yougov poll out tonight identical to those in my post of July 27th. No movement at all. Impasse territory.
Report sageform August 8, 2018 1:33 PM BST
Labour/Conservative split is usually close at between 37 and 40% each. Elections are decided by how many uncommitted voters choose a third party, vote for one of the 2 main parties or just don't vote.
Report Dr Crippen August 8, 2018 4:26 PM BST
I'm surprised the opinion pollsters are still in business after their predictions in recent years.
Report politicspunter August 8, 2018 5:45 PM BST
Some companies have a fantastic record, others not so.
Report Dr Crippen August 8, 2018 7:56 PM BST
Like the warning that comes with financial packages, ''past performance is no guarantee of future results.''
Report politicspunter August 8, 2018 8:26 PM BST
Absolutely. Some of the poorer performers got a right kicking post 2017 election and hopefully the changes they have made are effective. One of the best performers at 2017 GE was yougov who produced a model based on 50000 responses which had some incredible results on individual seats.

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

Here is the model. If you click on the individual hexagons on the map a guide comes up. From a betting viewpoint this was gold dust.
Report sageform August 10, 2018 8:28 AM BST
Online polling is likely to be more reliable these days as people walking down a street are not representative of the whole population.
Report lfc1971 August 10, 2018 9:10 AM BST
Too much information can lead to worse predictions rather than better
That’s a little know fact
Report lfc1971 August 10, 2018 9:21 AM BST
You see they may be good at predicting the ordinary , but not the out of the ordinary
And this is where they ultimately fail
Report politicspunter August 10, 2018 9:55 AM BST
I suppose it really depends on what you consider to be out of the ordinary.
Report lfc1971 August 10, 2018 10:08 AM BST
no when you are talking about predictions you have to assume that the future is exactly the same as the past
Exactly is the word that is the thing that  is important , and of course the future isn’t that
That is why experts get it wrong time and time again because they gave too much information
Too much information that is based of course on the past
That’s why too much information can be and is likely to be worse when trying to predict the future
That’s a fact
Report politicspunter August 10, 2018 12:13 PM BST
Lol, psephology according to lfc.
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