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tony57
06 Jul 18 19:05
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Date Joined: 13 Oct 10
| Topic/replies: 6,543 | Blogger: tony57's blog
https://brexitcentral.com/positively-think-no-deal-brexit-global-option/
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Report Dr Crippen July 6, 2018 9:16 PM BST
I agree with all that, I said from the word go that our default position should be to leave with no deal, and let them come to us if they have anything to concede.
The back stabbers were always going to try and scupper any attempt from us to negotiate a fair deal.
Throwing obstacles in the way of the government at every turn.
Which is what the EU negotiators have been banking on.
Report enpassant July 6, 2018 9:35 PM BST
Nothing that we haven't heard already.
Report donny osmond July 6, 2018 11:01 PM BST
mr softee brexit?

Report PorcupineorPineapple July 6, 2018 11:11 PM BST
Thing is if you say that you are actively pursuing no deal, you are not just saying it to Barnier, you're saying it to the world.

The moment it leaves your lips businesses make contingency plans. And more often than not those plans are to reduce or shut down operations here.

No deal only works if you have a viable plan to back it up and make it work. And we have never had that. It's an empty threat that can only do harm.
Report cyclops July 7, 2018 9:30 AM BST
Absolutely.
The threat that we'll stomp out if we don't get our way and the desperate line that, amazingly, still gets peddled, "they need us more than we need them", ignore the realities entirely.
If No Deal looms after October, that's when the system will start to collapse.
While we will undoubtedly blame the EU for rejecting whatever wonderful deal May is about to produce, the fact, if none other, that it has taken us over 2 years to present anything of substance (assuming it does have any substance) condemns us once and for all. No Deal would be our fault and no-one else's.
Report melv July 7, 2018 9:54 AM BST
No deal only works if you have a viable plan to back it up and make it work. And we have never had that. It's an empty threat that can only do harm.


Indeed..... and the magical thinking and fantasy planning spouted on here when their "No Deal" dreams are aired are as much a "back up plan" as a drunk planning to start his second bottle of vodka.


Hark the AMERCA FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!! rants this very day..... PS what do you do when a desperately weak punter with nowhere to go turns up cap in hand looking for a deal.......you rip him off till he's in shreds
Report Dr Crippen July 7, 2018 10:24 AM BST
Of course we have a viable plan to walk away with no deal, we go back to the position we were in before we joined.
How hard is that to understand?
Report TheBetterBettor July 7, 2018 10:47 AM BST
John Bercow has the final say on wherever the final deal should be put to a 'meaningful vote' by the house of commons.


Since he is a self confessed remainer, 'No deal' ain't gonna see the light of day
Report Dr Crippen July 7, 2018 11:02 AM BST
We need to crash out in order to get things moving.
Trading will continue whatever happens. No side will allow that to stop.
Report Dr Crippen July 7, 2018 11:04 AM BST
Rip it out and start again.
I'm sure all the businessmen on here will see the merit in that.
Report DIE LINKE July 7, 2018 11:52 AM BST
completely delusional to still believe "no-deal" could ever happen
Report tony57 July 7, 2018 11:58 AM BST
i always find it sad to see those who blame the goverment for everything in this process? the eu are to blame also? to just put this at our door is typical of those who detest brexit,and the democratic will of the british people..(to which they have no respect)

we must always plan for a NO DEAL..but as ive said before..a DEAL WILL BE DONE  always as with the EU IT WILL BE LAST MINUTE..dragged out to the end...but to moan, we as a country should not state we will walk away if we have too is just laughable from so called responsable buisness people..
Report DIE LINKE July 7, 2018 12:05 PM BST
it was never a credible negotiating stance - "If you don't give us a good deal we will cut ourselves off at the knees".
Report tony57 July 7, 2018 12:07 PM BST
no body said that? but if you dont get a fair deal? you must walkaway..only if the eu know this will they play a fair part also..
Report Dr Crippen July 7, 2018 12:15 PM BST
Anyone who's represented workers at a union meeting with employers over wages will recognise the principle.

You don't go in there proclaiming that strike action is out of the question. You'll simply get laughed at.

You get in there fired up with all guns blazing and the strike ballot papers ready to be printed and sent out. Then make sure the employers are aware of that fact.

That's the position you negotiate from.
Report DIE LINKE July 7, 2018 12:22 PM BST
Distinction being that a strike could well happen, there is no chance of no-deal and everybody (except a small number of swivel-eyed Brexiter MPs) knows it.
Report Dr Crippen July 7, 2018 12:24 PM BST
You're wrong DIE LINKE, in principle and in fact.
Report DIE LINKE July 7, 2018 12:26 PM BST
So a ballot of the cabinet or the parliamentary party would result in a majority for no-deal?
Report InsiderTrader July 7, 2018 12:28 PM BST
Why on earth do we 'have' to have a deal with the EU?
Report DIE LINKE July 7, 2018 12:37 PM BST
Its as if you chaps are living in a parallel universe. Cloud cuckoo land.
Report Dr Crippen July 7, 2018 1:10 PM BST
If that's all you've got left DIE LINKE, I suggest you wait until you've got something to say about the subject.
Report DIE LINKE July 7, 2018 1:47 PM BST
Crippen dodges the issues again. Get deleting posts and threads again!
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 11:54 AM BST
I've dodged nothing DIE LINKE, I'd like you to show me where I have?

I explained the position in simple terms that even you might understand, although it looks like I wasted my time.

You can't play poker with your cards face up on the table.
You have to be prepared to walk away with no deal in order to push the EU into conceding as much as possible, to prevent you from doing that.
If they think we won't walk away they won't budge an inch - why should they?

Just give them notice that were leaving without a deal and see what they do.
Or continue dancing to their tune.
Report PorcupineorPineapple July 8, 2018 12:09 PM BST
Thing is doc, the whole No Deal thing is just a shambles. Anyone paying attention will have heard us say loads "we need to have no deal up our sleeves to get a better deal". We've handicapped ourselves right there. If they'd said "we think no deal is best and are aiming for that unless the EU give us better" then they might have a chance but we've only ever heard the former. The only time No Deal is mentioned is as a tool to get a good deal. Nobody actually genuinely thinks no deal is the right course. We know it. They know it. And we know that they know we know it. It's about as threatening as Morata right now.

Secondly, it's no use just talking about no deal. You have to actually prepare. And that means radical changes to infrastructure. Our borders would need to be strengthened to make far more passport checks and checks on goods going either way. They can't just pop up overnight. If we say we're going to do something in 2 years' time then we need to be seen to be preparing for it, and we've done absolutely nothing.

Lastly, Parliament would never vote for no deal. We've finally seen the impact reports and the loss of jobs and revenue would be huge. Any party voting for that would be remembered for the next generation and would become the next UKIP overnight, going from mainstream party to irrelevance.


So, your poker analogy doesn't work. We've given away far too many tells already.
Report melv July 8, 2018 12:11 PM BST
we must always plan for a NO DEAL..


There is not one iota of a "no deal plan" The whole sick charade is almost nowhere and it almost over and nothing has been planned. Zero zilch nada nowt. Nothing is planned nobody is planning.


Its the summer recess soon. And in October the EU parliament is due to vote on our proposals. We have almost no plans for Soft Brexit. And this is the amount of planning or planking for no deal. 0.oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo...
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 1:09 PM BST
What exactly is the issue for having no initial trade deal with the EU? We have no trade deal with the USA and they are our biggest trading partner.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 1:56 PM BST
IT, the only issues surrounding the no deal scenario are the ones people have created.

Like this little gem from PP's post.

We've finally seen the impact reports and the loss of jobs and revenue would be huge.

Where's that fiction from?

Did we suddenly get a boost to our economy when we joined the Common Market? No we didn't.
We joined in 1973 and had to go begging for an IMF load in 1976.

And a no deal doesn't have to mean tariffs either, tariffs have to be imposed.
So if we left without  deal we'd still carry on trading with the EU and have to wait to see what transpired.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 1:58 PM BST
We're preparing to leave in 2019 without a deal according to Gove this morning on the Marr show.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 2:03 PM BST
No deal is no great deal.

Problems at the borders? Sort them out.

Tariffs? Tit for tat.

There'll be no loss of trade with the EU, why should there be?
Report PorcupineorPineapple July 8, 2018 2:26 PM BST
Rumours now that May showed Gove and Johnson evidence from the Mueller investigation on Leave, Banks and Russia.




Remember when politics used to be boring.
Report unitedbiscuits July 8, 2018 4:25 PM BST
Would appreciate a link to the above, PoP.
Report unitedbiscuits July 8, 2018 4:34 PM BST
Oh yeah, found it.
More to follow, hopefully.
Report SontaranStratagem July 8, 2018 6:35 PM BST
Did May really show Gove and Johnson evidence?
Report SontaranStratagem July 8, 2018 6:40 PM BST
It is funny how all of a sudden those pair have hopped on board with it

Its nothing more than a back door to removing rights. there's no leaving its all one big con.
Report dave1357 July 8, 2018 6:56 PM BST

Jul 8, 2018 -- 1:09PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


What exactly is the issue for having no initial trade deal with the EU? We have no trade deal with the USA and they are our biggest trading partner.


He still doesn't understand what "no deal" means in totality.  He still doesn't understand that it means legal paralysis in many areas.  He still doesn't understand that Britain's credibility as a stable nation (on which much of our prosperity depends) would be lost forever.

Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 7:06 PM BST
I repeat we have 'no deal' with our biggest trade partner and this presents no problem.
Report dave1357 July 8, 2018 7:15 PM BST
Let's just look at derivative contracts.  These would be unenforceable.  This would cause a credit crunch and a recession simply on its own.
Report SontaranStratagem July 8, 2018 7:43 PM BST
There will still be a trade deal, and there will still be an agreement to take in a certain amount of immigration

Theresa May yesterday: "we want to make sure that EU workers coming here to work in the UK get the same rights as before"

Given the game away with that comment surely?

You've been well and truly had, and people will be thinking they can just take to the streets to protest this, but no human rights or ECJ will mean the state can deal with any civil disobedience accordingly

You've got 7 months before the hammer drops
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 7:58 PM BST
You write like you're not in the UK SS.
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 8:42 PM BST
dave1357
08 Jul 18 19:15
Joined: 05 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 7,806 | Blogger: dave1357's blog
Let's just look at derivative contracts.  These would be unenforceable.  This would cause a credit crunch and a recession simply on its own.

^

Is this nonsense really the best you have got?
Report Wallflower July 8, 2018 8:44 PM BST
Its "Norway" or "No Deal".

Parliament wont countenance a no-deal.  "Norway" it is - take a while to get there - but that's where it will inevitably end.

(As I said all along, previous threads - Irish border (combined with dependence on DUP) - completely scuppered BrexitSad - and with it Scottish Independence, for a while anyway.
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 8:52 PM BST
Norway type deal clearly not an option.

Even the head of Norway said it would not suit us.

https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/
Report Wallflower July 8, 2018 9:05 PM BST
"Norway" may be all that is on offer?  Doesn't matter if it suits us or not, EU doesn't care.I think the cabinet have realised "no deal" is a disaster - and their dilemma now is how do we get out of this mess?

Barnier presented the options nearly two years ago. The EU aren't tearing up treaties between 27 countries to accommodate us - more pertinently they actually aren't in a position to do so (without great difficulty). They are all prepared for "no deal" anyway. They have moved on. We, as usual, haven't even started.

I can't see it going any other way than ending up in "Norway" unless the whole shambles forces a second referendum and we slink back into the loving arms with our tail between our legs.

What other outcome can you see?
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 9:11 PM BST
Canada type deal was also on offer.
Report Wallflower July 8, 2018 9:17 PM BST
That's correct IT -  but that was rejected because it didn't include services (80%) of our economy.

Which is puzzling as this proposal excludes servicesConfused.  Question has to be asked - is that to come later in the next capitulation?  EU haven't even got on the pitch yet!!!
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 9:21 PM BST
This is May's latest opening offer.

The EU never moves.

If we do not move there will be no deal which is I guess is what Boris et al are hoping.
Report Wallflower July 8, 2018 9:29 PM BST
I agree that's what they are hoping - but the stumbling block is parliament - the numbers won't allow it.

EU will say   "Norway" or "no deal"  they are prepared for no deal - they don't want it, but their red lines are real ones. They view them as essential for the EU to survive, which is more important than the UK being a member. They don't need us, as has become clear. We are not in any prepared for no deal. We are f*cked basically from what I can see.
Report Wallflower July 8, 2018 9:34 PM BST
As an aside..... regardless of which side you are on.

Two years later we find out what Brexit is - nobody can tell me they knew what Brexit was going to be (as opposed to what they thought/wanted it to be).

It was irresponsible to hold a In / OUT referendum - where the OUT plan and outcome were unknown - but that ship has sailed
Report dave1357 July 8, 2018 9:36 PM BST

Jul 8, 2018 -- 8:42PM, InsiderTrader wrote:


dave135708 Jul 18 19:15Joined: 05 Sep 10| Topic/replies: 7,806 | Blogger: dave1357's blogLet's just look at derivative contracts.  These would be unenforceable.  This would cause a credit crunch and a recession simply on its own.^Is this nonsense really the best you have got?


typical ignorant remark of a brexiter ostrich, I can absolutely assure you that a hard brexit means that all Eu/UK financial contracts will be invalid.

Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 9:45 PM BST
Dave is suddenly a derivatives expert now?

https://www.ft.com/content/e47d1828-7a0d-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 9:54 PM BST
We leave without a deal and the worst thing that can happen is tariffs.
So where's the disaster?

It looks more like plain sailing for trade with the rest of the world to me.
Disaster for the EU more like as other countries see the merit in leaving the sinking ship.
Report dave1357 July 8, 2018 9:57 PM BST
that will be firewalled obv

why did you pick that link of the many you got when you googled?
Report dave1357 July 8, 2018 9:59 PM BST
how about this one that everyone can read

https://www.businessinsider.de/bank-of-england
-warns-on-brexit-derivatives-crunch-2018-6?r=US&IR=T

The central bank believes that up to £29 trillion ($38 trillion) of uncleared over-the-counter (OTC) derivative contracts could effectively cease to function.
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 10:01 PM BST
Because it was the only one that showed any understanding whatsoever of what a derivative contract is.

The FT is a remainer paper.
Report InsiderTrader July 8, 2018 10:03 PM BST
Dave do you know what these contracts are? The so called 'worth' is nonsense. They bet on tiny ticks when the total number of ticks can be in the millions and there is barely any volatility.
Report dave1357 July 8, 2018 10:08 PM BST
ah so you now agree that they will be invalid?  And that the BoE is concerned?
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 10:09 PM BST
that will be firewalled obv

Surely you have an account?

I completely rubbishes the BOE report you quoted. I was about to post some of it here but received a warning about copyright.
Report dave1357 July 8, 2018 10:09 PM BST
btw the value of a derivative is it's value, whether it is covered by another contracted meaning the liability is less is another issue.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 10:10 PM BST
It goes into great detail rubbishing the BOE stuff.
Report dave1357 July 8, 2018 10:13 PM BST
crippen you're blocked after your moon landing escapades with terry mccann.  So there's no point making posts that you expect me to read.
Report Dr Crippen July 8, 2018 10:15 PM BST
Basically t says the BOE report is a red herring.

And that's from a remain newspaper.

So you concede the point then dave?
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