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bigpoppapump
03 Jul 18 11:33
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Date Joined: 16 Dec 02
| Topic/replies: 5,535 | Blogger: bigpoppapump's blog
We can make better trade deals than the EU as they (the deals) will take into account our needs rather than those of France and Germany.

This sentiment underpins some Brexit sentiment.

Questions: 

What are our needs?
What are the needs of France and Germany?
What will be sought in a trade deal by the US?
What will be sought in a trade deal by Australia?
What is the size of the UK market?
What is the size of the EU market?
does size matter?
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Report bigpoppapump July 3, 2018 11:35 AM BST
should read:  this statement
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 12:04 PM BST
We want to be the same as Japan
Report tony57 July 3, 2018 12:05 PM BST
https://brexitcentral.com/busting-remain-inspired-myths-trade-wto-terms/
Report tony57 July 3, 2018 12:09 PM BST
https://www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/revamped-hmrc-customs-system...
Report bigpoppapump July 3, 2018 12:14 PM BST
Tony - with respect - your first link is about why trading on WTO terms isn't too bad.  The thread was an invitation to explain the thinking on why the UK could secure better deals than the EU.
Report bigpoppapump July 3, 2018 12:16 PM BST
your second link is about HMRC and its heightened planning for a no deal scenario.

Thanks for the links, but maybe you should start threads about those subjects?
Report bigpoppapump July 3, 2018 12:18 PM BST
What are our needs?
What are the needs of France and Germany?
What will be sought in a trade deal by the US?
What will be sought in a trade deal by Australia?
What is the size of the UK market?
What is the size of the EU market?
does size matter?


we want to be like Japan isn't an answer to any of my questions.
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 2:18 PM BST
It’s all you need to know
Report Foinavon July 3, 2018 2:21 PM BST
I'm genuinely surprised that you need to ask those questions, bigpop. I would have thought that someone as intelligent as your good self would have made an informed assessment of the pro and cons before casting your vote. Surely you didn't vote with the sheep just because the Government, the civil service and certain media elites told you to? Or are you up to your usual trick of waiting for a few replies before informing us how you are right and everybody else is wrong?

We know that the UK is traditionally a free-trader and one would hope that Fox and his team are looking for free trade agreements with the EU and other countries after we leave in both goods and services.
We are a large importer of agricultural products, manufactured goods, energy and raw materials and nations such as those you mentioned would be intersted in fulfilling those needs at least in part and agree quality standards acceptable to us. France is a large exporter of agricultural products as well as manufactures and Germany exports a wide range manufactured goods. Our main earner is "invisibles" so our needs differ from theirs in some respects.
Size is important and we are told that we are the fifth richest nation with a corrspondingly large economy.
We have the advantage over the EU in that we can make agreements without having to consult 28 nations all with their own priorities.
Report Foinavon July 3, 2018 2:25 PM BST
I should add to the last sentence that we won't be imposing tariff barriers to agricultural products as the single market does.
Report mrtopnotch July 3, 2018 2:25 PM BST
In the Financial Times: "It must be tough for an EU negotiator to get into the ring every day for talks for almost 2 years as the UK just retreats into the corner and repeatedly punches itself in the face every time"
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 2:27 PM BST
I thought the EU was refusing to negotiate trade
Report mrtopnotch July 3, 2018 2:30 PM BST
May’s problem: Brexit and Trumpism have become monstrous twins
Rafael Behr

Her EU negotiations are hampered by the Brexiteers around her who laud a White House set on wrecking Europe

So quickly has the unthinkable become unremarkable. US presidents never used to conspire to undermine European security. Nowadays it is normal. We learned last week that, when Emmanuel Macron was a guest in the White House in April, Donald Trump suggested France leave the European Union. And it hardly makes the top 20 Trumpian outrages of the year so far.

It isn’t news that Trump despises the EU. His primary grievance is economic: the US imports too many European goods (German cars, for instance). He believes that the strong sell to the weak, and thus a trade deficit is a symptom of national enfeeblement and a shame to be extirpated. So he launched a tariff war with Brussels. But that is a symptom of a more profound cognitive impairment. The president struggles with concepts of reciprocity and solidarity. His is a zero-sum universe in which benefits enjoyed by anyone else must have been deducted from his portion.


He also knows no history. He does not recognise the underlying ethos of the EU, conceived in the ashes of 20th-century apocalypse, binding formerly antagonistic states into mutual economic obligations. The very idea belongs to a dimension that Trump’s mind cannot visit. No wonder he likes Brexit.

It would be naive to imagine the present-day EU as a perfect realisation of its founding promise. And there is no available counterfactual to show how much poorer and less secure its members might be had their union never evolved. Still, its rise has generally tracked trends of unprecedented peace and prosperity, so it is rational to be afraid when the White House agitates for the whole thing to unravel.


Doubling pro-Europeans’ anxiety is the thought of Angela Merkel reaching her political twilight. The German chancellor is in her 13th year in office. She stands on the continental stage as an ambassador from the past and keeper of its lessons. Her childhood was spent in an authoritarian communist republic that was dissolved in 1990. Her career is a tribute to the merit in tearing down walls.

But her coalition government is fragile. The moderate, liberal consensus it upholds, and of which she has come to be an embodiment, looks haggard and defensive. The Europe that Merkel represents is besieged by populists and nationalists. The trend manifests itself in varied forms from country to country. The new maverick Italian strain is different to the entrenched Polish and Hungarian versions. But a common thread is venomous anti-immigration rhetoric in harmony with the Trump agenda. Richard Grenell, Washington’s ambassador to Berlin, recently gave an interview to Breitbart, the hard-right propaganda outlet, in which he described an ambition to “empower” disruptive movements spreading conservative dissent across the continent.


Consider what embattled European liberals make of Brexit in this context. It is admired by a US president who wishes misfortune on them; and that president is admired by Tory politicians who speak of Brussels as if it were a mortal enemy. From across the Channel, Trump and Brexit look like monstrous conjoined electoral twins, born a few months apart in 2016, both conceived in hostility to prevailing norms of global governance.

Theresa May understands this, and has tried to rebrand Brexit as something Europe-friendly. When speaking with an eye on her continental audience, she emphasises shared history and values. She talks of an enduring, close partnership. She believes it, too. The only significant intervention she made for the remain campaign in 2016 was a speech explaining how an alliance of western democracies amplified the UK’s power in the world. “The European Union does make us more secure, it does make us more prosperous and it does make us more influential beyond our shores,” May said.

One of the crippling delusions that fogged Brexiter judgment at the start of the article 50 process was a belief that individual national interests of the 27 other member states could be gamed to the UK’s advantage: that while the commission was formally in charge of the negotiations, there would come a point when old-fashioned bilateral bargaining could take over. Then the mythical “bespoke” deal – stitched from scraps of old treaty to fit around Britain’s economy – would be available. It hasn’t happened, and Trump is a large part of the reason. His marauding presence on the global stage enhances the value in European community and casts Brexit as its antithesis.

For every effort the prime minister makes to explain that Britain still wants to uphold the rules-based international order, there are a dozen times her cabinet, her party, and the whole frenzied Brexit-boosting carnival proves the opposite. There is Boris Johnson, fantasising aloud how much better Trump would be at handling the negotiations. There are reports that John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, held private talks with hardline pro-Brexit MPs behind May’s back. And these are the alt-right Tories who stalk the prime minister, daggers half-drawn, signalling that their revolution will be completed either by her or over her political corpse.

How is the EU supposed to accommodate a country whose leader claims to support its project but whose ruling party fizzes with excitement at the prospect of an epoch-shaking schism? How is Merkel or Macron to understand May’s ambition for a “deep and special partnership” when they can see the wreckers over her shoulder; when her friendly words are drowned out by drums that beat in perfect time with sworn enemies of Europe’s founding idea?

The prime minister has ducked many choices since the negotiations to leave the EU began, and avoided many hard questions. But they all flow from one strategic call; one irreducible Brexit dilemma. Our most valuable allies see their problem as the unravelling of European solidarity. Britain has to decide whether it is serious about being part of the solution.
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 2:34 PM BST
Poor Trump getting the blame again , it’s for Britain and the EU to come to a trade agreement or not. 
What’s difficult to understand about that ?
Report Foinavon July 3, 2018 2:36 PM BST
My opinion of the FT can be found on one of Melv's threads. I assume that C+P is from the Grauniad, (it certainly smells like it), which is even worse
Report mrtopnotch July 3, 2018 2:39 PM BST
Two examples of "Empire Anxiety" Laugh
Foinavon should just head to the Old Folks Home now Laugh
Report Foinavon July 3, 2018 2:44 PM BST
You have clearly lost the argument when you resort to insults. Nothing constructive from yourself just cut and paste the opinions of others. Very poor, mr topnotch (what a misnomer) Laugh
Report mrtopnotch July 3, 2018 2:45 PM BST
Oh dear - says the man who only insults. A bully who can't handle it coming back.
Off you go now to the home old man ...just goLaugh
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 2:45 PM BST
topnotch is obsessed by the British empire ,
oh well remainers may catch up eventually
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 2:46 PM BST
They can only be what they are , stragglers
Report mrtopnotch July 3, 2018 2:47 PM BST
What empire ? Tablets ain't working for lfc1971's "Empire Anxiety" condition Laugh
Try a different dose
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 2:50 PM BST
Silly boy there only is one empire worth the name , the British Empire
Be thankful
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 2:52 PM BST
With the American empire a close second, be thankful for that as well
Report Foinavon July 3, 2018 2:53 PM BST
He's just a one trick pony lfc, now he's out of bed he'll be off down the pub soon.
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 2:54 PM BST
What dreamy empire where you thinking off topnotch
The USSR . Well I’m sure you,re stupid enough to do so
Report bigpoppapump July 3, 2018 3:13 PM BST
I'm genuinely surprised that you need to ask those questions, bigpop. I would have thought that someone as intelligent as your good self would have made an informed assessment of the pro and cons before casting your vote. Surely you didn't vote with the sheep just because the Government, the civil service and certain media elites told you to? Or are you up to your usual trick of waiting for a few replies before informing us how you are right and everybody else is wrong?

Some interesting - some baffling.  I'll try to respond:

My questions are a genuine attempt to try to gain insight into the claim you made on a different thread that the UK would get better deals than the EU (assume you were referring to the types of country I mentioned in my questions?).  Your only reason was that it would happen because it - the future deal - would be UK specific; as opposed to deals under the EU umbrella which you've hinted are built with the best interests of France and Germany at their heart.

So my questions are based on the assumption that anyone (you) who can say that the deals done so far (via the EU) are for those other countries at our expense would be able to say what the needs are which you referred to?

I'm also interested (which is why I asked) in what you think the countries on the other side of these deals would be looking for.
And you've answered - although the things that they would export which you've mentioned are all also required by the EU, so don't make us anything other than a smaller export market than the EU (for Australia, for example)  I ask about market size as I assume (maybe rightly or wrongly) that the larger the market the more attractive the deal may look to the other country.  In the same way we would like a cool deal with the US and are not too focused on Namibia (for now, anyway).

I couldn't be right or wrong about this as I haven't offered an opinion - I've asked for an explanation of the thinking from someone who posted something indicating they have large degree of certainty over the future and this (certainty) is something of which I'm suspicious.

That's it.  no tricks.
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 3:20 PM BST
Trade deals might be exactly the same , or a little better or a little worse
But essentially they will remain the same , it’s as much a difficulty to come to a good trade deal if your are 27 countries rather than 1

However the most important difference will be that trade deals will no longer mean freedom of movement
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 3:22 PM BST
That is the most important fundamental , any trade deals will be just that , trade , not having to worry about anything else
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 3:22 PM BST
Now we don’t want to have to explain that again
Report Foinavon July 3, 2018 3:40 PM BST
The difficulties in reaching a trade deal with the EU are highlighted in this article from the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/15/reality-check-will-it-take-10-years-to-do-a-uk-eu-trade-deal-post-brexit

Take CETA for example, which according to the writer took seven years to negotiate and was 22 years in the making. It still doesn't include the Professional services agreement required by the UK. Also it is not a free trade agreement but preferential tariffs agreement, some of which are zero and some will be reduced stepwise (in tranches) over a number of years. The eu has failed to negotiate an EU/USA deal or with the transpacific partnership. I would expect the UK to do better especially with the USA.
Report mrtopnotch July 3, 2018 3:54 PM BST
Laugh
Oh dear comedy gold from Dad's Army
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 4:11 PM BST
topnotch, young people get the foolish idea that something new to them must be new for everyone else as well
knowledge is what is important, what age are you again?
Report Foinavon July 3, 2018 4:35 PM BST
It's OK lfc, I've just called nurse to bring a cup of tea and my tablets.Wink
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 4:39 PM BST
:)
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 4:43 PM BST
I am not old, certainly not 80
but a cup of tea sounds lovely, and maybe some cake
and the football later, whats wrong with that?
I don't knowGrin
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 4:47 PM BST
well maybe topnotch is a young poor unemployed person,who knows
he,s gone very quiet
Report lfc1971 July 3, 2018 4:56 PM BST
are people ignorant when they are 17, or whatever age young topnotch is ?

certainly not they know everything, at that age
Report sageform July 6, 2018 11:32 AM BST
The real problem will be that the US may want us to accept food prepared in ways that are banned in the EU which would be fine if we wish to do so except that the EU would use that as a reason for banning some or all UK food exports to the rest of the EU. The only thing that will work in the long run is for the UK to do bilateral deals with each EU country that wishes to trade with us but that can't happen now because of people like Juncker and Merkel who are determined to control everything from Brussels. They won't be in charge for ever thank goodness.
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