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InsiderTrader
28 Jun 18 07:58
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 05
| Topic/replies: 6,556 | Blogger: InsiderTrader's blog
Why has the EU and our government spend the last 2 years negotiating a 21 month extension to our EU membership instead of just getting on with sorting out a trade deal from the start?

We are no further forward on trade and immigration policy than we were in June 2016.

If nothing can be sorted out in 2 years why will another 21 months help?

If the EU keeps dragging its feet with made up excuses we should just leave and do a Canada style deal with them in the future. We then save £40bn.
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Report melv June 28, 2018 4:35 PM BST
Officially Brexit is supposed to signed off in October. So the European parliament can decided whether they are buying our offer or telling us to eff off. Between now and then its the summer recess. Who in their right minds thinks there is any chance  of meaningful progress before then.


I actually think our lords and masters want to drag the whole thing on and on and on indefinitely because they know they are not giving you your Brexit and they do not want you kicking off.

The Elephant in the room is Europe. We are hearing noises that they are getting impatient. Talk of "No deal" for one. I know they need frictionless supply lines and all the rest as much as we done. So I think in reality they are actually in on the sad sick sorry circus. I think we will be no further in 2020 and everyone will be so bored by then that no-one will care what happens. We just won't have any representation but we will go and and on and on just as we are now. Theresa May saying she has a vision and Europe saying " Very nice we value your friendship too Theresa but what exactly do you want to do?" " Well frictionless vision of shared values and history please" says Theresa and so on and on and on.
Report Foinavon June 28, 2018 4:48 PM BST
Here's the latest post from Janis, Melv. It shows the type of people we're dealing with.
They just want our money, pure and simple. I hope you noticed from the Airbus thread that it takes the tax from EIGHT companies the size of Airbus just to pay our net annual contribution to the robdogs.

Yanis Varoufakis

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Three years ago today the ECB unlawfully closed the Greek banks so as to beat into submission a gvt elected to end Greece's debt bondage. Today, Europe's establishment is getting its comeuppance in the hands of the Nationalist International their inane authoritarianism bred.
3:56 am - 28 Jun 2018
Report InsiderTrader June 28, 2018 5:03 PM BST
Theresa May has said both the UK and EU want to work towards a future Brexit deal "at a faster pace", after being warned that time is running out.

Arriving at an EU summit, the prime minister said "very good progress" had been made on a withdrawal agreement.

The PM will brief 27 other EU leaders for the last time before October, when both sides hope a deal will be done on the UK's March 2019 departure.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44636755

So what exactly is going on? Will we have a trade deal by October to vote on? I just cannot see it with the way the EU are carrying on about the Irish border and themselves thinking of ending Schengen.

If we do not have a trade deal to transition into to then what is the point of the 21 month transition period?
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 28, 2018 5:45 PM BST
If you're not aware of it yet, May and the Tories in general say a lot of things, pretty much all of which mean nothing. If there was a gold medal for empty platitudes she'd be streets clear. Very good progress and on track are simply the latest offerings.


Fact is, the two year deadline was always pie in the sky. We'd made no preparations for the possibility of a no vote. It's a ten year job to properly untangle ourselves. The government have finally gotten round to analysing what will happen to our economy on the back of the various brexit options and the answer is armageddon on various scales. Now, they're simply dragging it out, looking for someone they can blame for having to use temporary measures and then hopefully come up with a watered down version when everyone's calmed down a bit.

The EU realise they've got us over a barrel. It's them, not us, making the no deal threats. Every day this goes on with Davis not camped in Brussels tilts the odds further in their favour. Time is their friend, not ours. They don't need to rush at all so the ball's in our court to get it moving.
Report Dr Crippen June 28, 2018 7:34 PM BST
We've got the EU over a barrel. They're running out of time.
The government are making very good progress and are on track to deal with the situation no matter what transpires.

The UK can't lose.
Report dave1357 June 28, 2018 8:18 PM BST
You were told before the referendum that it isn't possible to negotiate trade with a member. Is this something else you forgot?
Report treetop July 3, 2018 10:20 AM BST
Pressure from within the EU will make them wake up and start rushing,its been a game of cat and mouse up to now.
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip July 3, 2018 10:53 AM BST
The Times - Majority of companies have not made any plans for leaving the EU

The majority of UK and European mid-sized companies have done no planning for Britains exit from the European Union next March. One in five UK companies with between 50 and 500 staff have not begun planning for brexit, research suggests, while a further two fifths do not believe they need to plan at all for the nations departure from the EU. According to the study, commissioned by the accountants Grant Thornton, less than one in ten British businesses have begun implementing contingency plans. Those elsewhere in the bloc were even less likely to have begun brexit planning, with the exception of Ireland, where half of surveyed companies had made risk assessments.


Careful of that cliff edge
Report bigpoppapump July 3, 2018 11:25 AM BST
it's almost as if we don't have a plan for leaving the EU
Report mrtopnotch July 3, 2018 12:00 PM BST
May’s problem: Brexit and Trumpism have become monstrous twins
Rafael Behr

Her EU negotiations are hampered by the Brexiteers around her who laud a White House set on wrecking Europe

So quickly has the unthinkable become unremarkable. US presidents never used to conspire to undermine European security. Nowadays it is normal. We learned last week that, when Emmanuel Macron was a guest in the White House in April, Donald Trump suggested France leave the European Union. And it hardly makes the top 20 Trumpian outrages of the year so far.

It isn’t news that Trump despises the EU. His primary grievance is economic: the US imports too many European goods (German cars, for instance). He believes that the strong sell to the weak, and thus a trade deficit is a symptom of national enfeeblement and a shame to be extirpated. So he launched a tariff war with Brussels. But that is a symptom of a more profound cognitive impairment. The president struggles with concepts of reciprocity and solidarity. His is a zero-sum universe in which benefits enjoyed by anyone else must have been deducted from his portion.


He also knows no history. He does not recognise the underlying ethos of the EU, conceived in the ashes of 20th-century apocalypse, binding formerly antagonistic states into mutual economic obligations. The very idea belongs to a dimension that Trump’s mind cannot visit. No wonder he likes Brexit.

It would be naive to imagine the present-day EU as a perfect realisation of its founding promise. And there is no available counterfactual to show how much poorer and less secure its members might be had their union never evolved. Still, its rise has generally tracked trends of unprecedented peace and prosperity, so it is rational to be afraid when the White House agitates for the whole thing to unravel.


Doubling pro-Europeans’ anxiety is the thought of Angela Merkel reaching her political twilight. The German chancellor is in her 13th year in office. She stands on the continental stage as an ambassador from the past and keeper of its lessons. Her childhood was spent in an authoritarian communist republic that was dissolved in 1990. Her career is a tribute to the merit in tearing down walls.

But her coalition government is fragile. The moderate, liberal consensus it upholds, and of which she has come to be an embodiment, looks haggard and defensive. The Europe that Merkel represents is besieged by populists and nationalists. The trend manifests itself in varied forms from country to country. The new maverick Italian strain is different to the entrenched Polish and Hungarian versions. But a common thread is venomous anti-immigration rhetoric in harmony with the Trump agenda. Richard Grenell, Washington’s ambassador to Berlin, recently gave an interview to Breitbart, the hard-right propaganda outlet, in which he described an ambition to “empower” disruptive movements spreading conservative dissent across the continent.


Consider what embattled European liberals make of Brexit in this context. It is admired by a US president who wishes misfortune on them; and that president is admired by Tory politicians who speak of Brussels as if it were a mortal enemy. From across the Channel, Trump and Brexit look like monstrous conjoined electoral twins, born a few months apart in 2016, both conceived in hostility to prevailing norms of global governance.

Theresa May understands this, and has tried to rebrand Brexit as something Europe-friendly. When speaking with an eye on her continental audience, she emphasises shared history and values. She talks of an enduring, close partnership. She believes it, too. The only significant intervention she made for the remain campaign in 2016 was a speech explaining how an alliance of western democracies amplified the UK’s power in the world. “The European Union does make us more secure, it does make us more prosperous and it does make us more influential beyond our shores,” May said.

One of the crippling delusions that fogged Brexiter judgment at the start of the article 50 process was a belief that individual national interests of the 27 other member states could be gamed to the UK’s advantage: that while the commission was formally in charge of the negotiations, there would come a point when old-fashioned bilateral bargaining could take over. Then the mythical “bespoke” deal – stitched from scraps of old treaty to fit around Britain’s economy – would be available. It hasn’t happened, and Trump is a large part of the reason. His marauding presence on the global stage enhances the value in European community and casts Brexit as its antithesis.

For every effort the prime minister makes to explain that Britain still wants to uphold the rules-based international order, there are a dozen times her cabinet, her party, and the whole frenzied Brexit-boosting carnival proves the opposite. There is Boris Johnson, fantasising aloud how much better Trump would be at handling the negotiations. There are reports that John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, held private talks with hardline pro-Brexit MPs behind May’s back. And these are the alt-right Tories who stalk the prime minister, daggers half-drawn, signalling that their revolution will be completed either by her or over her political corpse.

How is the EU supposed to accommodate a country whose leader claims to support its project but whose ruling party fizzes with excitement at the prospect of an epoch-shaking schism? How is Merkel or Macron to understand May’s ambition for a “deep and special partnership” when they can see the wreckers over her shoulder; when her friendly words are drowned out by drums that beat in perfect time with sworn enemies of Europe’s founding idea?

The prime minister has ducked many choices since the negotiations to leave the EU began, and avoided many hard questions. But they all flow from one strategic call; one irreducible Brexit dilemma. Our most valuable allies see their problem as the unravelling of European solidarity. Britain has to decide whether it is serious about being part of the solution.
Report PorcupineorPineapple July 3, 2018 12:13 PM BST
Indeed.

To go back to the opening post, how the hell are we supposed to progress talks when we can't even decide what our own proposal is? It's gone on years now and they're still no closer to uniting behind one plan.
Report mrtopnotch July 3, 2018 12:14 PM BST
In the Financial Times: "It must be tough for an EU negotiator to get into the ring every day for talks for almost 2 years as the UK just retreats into the corner and repeatedly punches itself in the face every time"
Report PorcupineorPineapple July 3, 2018 12:19 PM BST
(insert emoji that starts as a laugh and then realises what it means and cries instead)
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